有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/11 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/11 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 79260 9814 8.06 三月 78770 9730 8.13 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.17 -1195.14 现货出口 375.79 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/11 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22170 2603 8.52 三月 21655 2636 6.39 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.70 -481.62 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/11 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 20160 2472 8.15 三月 19880 2465 8.13 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.66 -1240.39 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/11 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 123050 15171 8.11 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.27 -3823.28 跨期套利跟踪 2025/06/11 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -120 -230 -370 -600 理论价差 497 892 1296 1700 锌 ...

Group 1 - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures on June 10 has seen all contracts rise, with the main contract reaching a high of 19,500 yuan and a low of 19,070 yuan, marking an increase of 4.63% [1] - Current market conditions indicate a strong upward trend for casting aluminum alloy, despite being in a traditional off-season for consumption [1] - Institutions suggest that the price difference between ADC12 and A00 is currently around -800 yuan, with historical mid-year lows typically between -1,000 to -1,500 yuan [1] Group 2 - The current spot price for ADC12 is approximately between 19,500 to 20,000 yuan per ton, with production costs at 20,086 yuan per ton, indicating a potential buying opportunity at lower prices [2] - Concerns about severe overcapacity in casting aluminum alloy production and the traditional off-season from June to August suggest a downward trend in the medium to long term [2] - The expected reasonable trading range for AD2511 is projected to be between 18,000 to 19,700 yuan per ton [2]

| 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/06/09 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/06 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/05 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/04 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/03 | -191.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 6 月 10 日） 一、动力煤 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of aluminum alloy futures marks a significant development in China's metal futures market, with the first contract being the 2511 contract, and the market sentiment is cautious due to seasonal consumption factors and price differentials [1][4]. Industry Overview - The aluminum alloy futures market is structured from scrap aluminum to casting aluminum alloy, then to die-cast parts, with the transportation sector being the largest consumer [1]. - The primary delivery standard for the futures is ADC12, which is currently in a consumption off-season, leading to a significant price discount compared to A00 aluminum [1]. Market Dynamics - The current market sentiment is cautious, influenced by the seasonal demand and the price disparity between different quoting platforms, with Jiangxi Baotai generally offering lower prices compared to Shanghai Steel Union and Shanghai Nonferrous [2]. - The market is divided into two categories: high-quality aluminum water for mainframe manufacturers and lower-quality alloy ingots for secondary suppliers, affecting the delivery dynamics [2][3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The second quarter is characterized as a consumption off-season, with limited support for aluminum prices due to low demand and high production capacity [4]. - Despite an overall surplus in aluminum alloy production, the actual circulation of alloy ingots is minimal, resulting in low social inventory levels of 10,000 to 20,000 tons, providing some support for prices [4]. Price Expectations - The expected price range for the first trading day of aluminum alloy futures is between 19,000 and 19,800 yuan per ton, with various factors influencing both the upper and lower limits of this range [5]. - The upper limit is based on recent pricing from Jiangxi Baotai and includes additional costs, while the lower limit considers historical cost and price differentials [5]. Trading Strategies - The initial trading strategy suggests a focus on short to medium-term trading, with a recommendation for competitive buying due to the low listing price, while also being cautious of potential price corrections [6]. - Additional strategies include considering options for hedging and potential arbitrage opportunities due to expected seasonal price peaks and price differentials between ADC12 and A00 [7].

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/09 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/09 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 78870 9826 7.97 三月 78820 9756 8.07 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.18 -1323.74 现货出口 833.76 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/09 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22660 2660 8.52 三月 22225 2696 6.19 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.73 -556.23 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/09 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 20230 2462 8.21 三月 19975 2467 8.14 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.66 -1105.12 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/09 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 123450 15320 8.06 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.27 -4308.57 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 16450 1963 8.41 三月 16775 1990 11.21 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.91 -996.08 跨期套利跟踪 2025/06/0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating [1][5] 2. Core Viewpoints - The casting aluminum alloy market is in a significant off - season, showing weak performance. The price of scrap aluminum has declined, and ADC12 is relatively weak. In the short - term, the unilateral price of casting aluminum alloy is under pressure and may run weakly. The price difference between ADC12 and electrolytic aluminum still has room to decline. In the medium - to - long - term, a long - ADC12 and short - electrolytic aluminum position can be arranged at the end of the off - season, and attention can be paid to the inter - period positive spread position [3][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply Side - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is at a medium - to - high level in history. Scrap aluminum imports are at a high level, but the year - on - year growth rate has declined. The price of scrap aluminum has decreased, and the price difference between refined and scrap aluminum has increased. After the raw material price of alloy plants decreased, the cost has loosened, but the operating rate is expected to continue to decline due to demand limitations [8][9][13] Supply Side - Recycled Aluminum - The price of casting aluminum alloy has a slight short - term decline, and the spread between ADC12 and A00 has significantly converged. The regional price difference of casting aluminum alloy shows that the southwest region is relatively weak and presents certain seasonal patterns. The operating rate of casting aluminum alloy has slightly decreased, and the monthly operating rate is at a historical low. ADC12 is mainly made from scrap aluminum and is currently in a loss state. The explicit and implicit inventories of casting alloys have increased, and the import window of casting aluminum alloy is temporarily closed [19][22][27] Supply Side - Recycled Aluminum Rod - The production and inventory data of recycled aluminum rods are presented. The production of recycled aluminum rods in different regions and the proportion of factory inventory in different regions are also provided [38][40] Demand Side - Terminal Consumption - In terminal consumption, the production of fuel - powered vehicles has declined, which has affected die - casting consumption. The production of new energy vehicles, motorcycles, and some household appliances, as well as the automobile inventory warning index, are also presented in the report [45][46]

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/06 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/06 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 78380 9731 8.06 三月 78040 9638 8.11 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.19 -1366.56 现货出口 799.54 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/06 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22870 2660 8.60 三月 22180 2696 6.20 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.71 -303.28 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/06 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 20250 2469 8.20 三月 19935 2477 8.10 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.64 -1099.54 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/06 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 123100 15213 8.09 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.26 -3495.98 易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全 部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可 ...

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/03 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/03 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 78240 9604 8.13 三月 77420 9554 8.14 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.22 -778.22 现货出口 507.68 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/03 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22780 2639 8.63 三月 21980 2662 6.22 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.74 -281.50 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/03 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 20290 2446 8.29 三月 19975 2452 8.18 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.67 -945.16 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/03 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 122450 15179 8.07 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.28 -4102.92 易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全 部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View The report presents the basis, price spreads, and other data of various commodities including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures on different dates from May 21 to May 27, 2025, offering data support for investors to analyze market trends and arbitrage opportunities. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - The basis of power coal from May 21 to May 27, 2025, was - 190.4 yuan/ton, and the spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 were all 0 [2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - For INE crude oil, the basis on May 27, 2025, was - 7.49 yuan/ton, showing a change compared to previous days. The basis of fuel oil was not available on May 27, and the crude oil/asphalt ratio was 0.1302 [6]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis of various chemicals such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, etc., had different values on different dates. For example, the basis of natural rubber on May 27 was - 95 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: Different inter - month spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) were presented for chemicals like natural rubber, methanol, and PTA [11]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc., also showed variations on different dates [11]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal had different values on different dates. For example, the basis of rebar on May 27 was 140.0 yuan/ton [16]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: Different inter - month spreads were presented for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal [16]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Ratios such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, and coke/coking coal, as well as the spread of rebar - hot - rolled coil, were provided [16]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis of copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., had different values on different dates. For example, the basis of copper on May 27 was 370 yuan/ton [24]. 3.4.2 London Market - Data on LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss were provided for copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. For example, the LME spread of copper on May 27 was 40.08 [31]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc., had different values on different dates. For example, the basis of soybean No.1 on May 27 was - 64 yuan/ton [40]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: Different inter - month spreads were presented for various agricultural products [40]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Ratios such as soybean No.1/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc., were provided [40]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 had different values on different dates. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on May 27 was 30.20 [48]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: Different inter - month spreads (next - current, current - quarter - current, etc.) were presented for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 [48].

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/05/27 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/05/27 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 78525 - - 三月 77600 9614 8.15 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 - - 现货出口 - 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/05/27 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22580 - - 三月 22055 2713 6.20 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 - - 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/05/27 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 20350 - - 三月 20090 2466 8.18 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 - - 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/05/27 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 124100 - - 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 - -3470.81 铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/05/27 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 16650 - - 三月 16795 1994 11.12 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 - - 跨期套利跟踪 2025/05/27 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 100 -190 -420 -700 理论价 ...