1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: The main contract price oscillated higher with a daily increase of 0.96%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. The steel price was driven up by the resurgence of raw materials, but the fundamentals of rebar did not improve substantially under the situation of both supply and demand increasing. The steel price remained prone to pressure, and the upward driving force needed to be tracked. It is expected that the steel price will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price showed a strong trend with a daily increase of 1.40%, trading volume decreased while open interest increased. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of hot - rolled coils continued to weaken, inventory increased and the growth rate expanded. However, the real - world contradictions were limited, and the strong upward movement of raw materials provided cost support. In the short term, the price will continue to oscillate higher, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [4]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price rose strongly with a daily increase of 2.36%, the shift of the main contract was completed, and both trading volume and open interest increased. Although the demand for iron ore was weakening, the supply recovery was lower than expected, the fundamentals were stable, and the good profit situation of steel mills provided support for the ore price. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a high - level oscillation under the game of multiple and short factors, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Automobile Industry**: In July, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.591 million and 2.593 million respectively, with a month - on - month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7% respectively. Among 18 car companies that announced their July production and sales data, more than 60% had a year - on - year increase in sales [6]. - **Real Estate Industry**: The total sales of 18 key real estate enterprises from January to July 2025 were 842.096 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 16.9%. In July, the total sales were 95.316 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 20% and a month - on - month decrease of 41.4%. The total sales area from January to July was 42.6283 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 24.5%, and in July it was 5.4157 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 25.5% and a month - on - month decrease of 31.5% [7]. - **Iron Ore Industry**: The Sydvaranger iron ore in Norway is accelerating its restart. It is expected to start production in 2026. The total resources of the iron ore are about 514 million tons, with an average iron grade of 33.05% and a magnetite iron grade of 28.58% [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel Products**: The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average were 3,340, 3,360 and 3,427 respectively, with price changes of 10, 20 and 19 respectively. The spot prices of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average were 3,510, 3,460 and 3,522 respectively, with price changes of 30, 20 and 22 respectively. The price of Tangshan billet was 3,120 with a change of 20, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,140 with no change. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar was 170 with a change of 20, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,200 with a change of 10 [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 788 with a change of 11, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 783 with a change of 10. The sea freight from Australia and Brazil was 10.58 and 24.95 respectively, with changes of 0.21 and 0.59 respectively. The SGX swap price (current month) was 102.60 with a change of 0.90, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 102.90 with a change of 1.40 [9]. 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Active Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change (%) | High Price | Low Price | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | - | 3,258 | 0.96 | 3,269 | 3,235 | 1,141,600 | - 269,639 | 1,605,388 | - 7,237 | | Hot - rolled Coil | - | 3,484 | 1.40 | 3,495 | 3,454 | 488,547 | - 78,139 | 1,381,560 | 6,551 | | Iron Ore | - | 801.0 | 2.36 | 803.0 | 787.5 | 281,002 | 109,995 | 443,799 | 171,910 | [13] 3.4 Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: The report presents the weekly changes and total inventory (including steel mills and social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coils, as well as the inventory of 45 ports of iron ore, 247 steel mills' iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory [16][18][21]. - **Steel Mill Production Situation**: The report shows the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, and the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [30][32][33]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Rebar**: The supply and demand pattern continued to weaken, the inventory growth rate expanded. Although the output of hot - rolled coils decreased due to the maintenance of plate mills, the sustainability of production reduction was questionable, and the positive effect of supply contraction was not strong. The demand for hot - rolled coils continued to weaken, and the weak demand put pressure on the price. It is expected that the steel price will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [38]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Both supply and demand increased. The production of rebar reached a high level this year, and demand improved, but the sustainability of the improvement was questionable. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coils continued to weaken, but cost support existed. In the short term, the price will continue to oscillate higher, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [39]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply and demand pattern changed little. The consumption of steel mills decreased, but the profit situation was good, and the overall decline was not large. The supply of iron ore increased limitedly. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a high - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [39].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The iron ore price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend due to the game between long and short factors. The demand for iron ore is weakening while the supply is rising steadily. However, the good profitability of steel mills provides support for the iron ore price. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating with a slight upward bias. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA20 line. The core logic is that the demand has good resilience and the ore price is oscillating at a high level [1]. Market Driving Logic - The fundamentals of iron ore are weakly stable. Steel mill production is weakening, and the terminal consumption of ore is continuously decreasing. The positive factor is that the profit situation of steel mills is good, and the demand remains high, providing support for the ore price. However, production restrictions may cause impacts. - Domestic port ore arrivals are rising, while overseas miners' shipments are decreasing. The continuous reduction under high ore prices needs to be tracked. Domestic ore production continues to be weakly stable, and the ore supply is rising steadily. - Overall, with the weakening demand and rising supply, the fundamentals are weakly stable, and the ore price is prone to pressure. But the good profitability of steel mills and the resilience of demand support the ore price, resulting in a high - level oscillating trend [2].

Group 1 - The main contract for iron ore futures has seen an intraday increase of 3% [1] - The current price of iron ore futures is reported at 817.5 yuan per ton [1]

Group 1 - The main contract for iron ore has increased by 2.00% during the day, currently priced at 798.00 yuan per ton [1]

Group 1 - The main futures contract for iron ore surged by 4%, reaching 766 yuan per ton [1] - The Singapore iron ore index's main contract increased by over 3%, currently priced at 99.45 USD per ton [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of Iron Ore 2509 are expected to be volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the resurgence of production restrictions has put pressure on the price of iron ore, causing it to weaken [2]. - The short - term trend of iron ore will continue to be volatile. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production restrictions. Although the demand for iron ore shows good resilience, there are concerns about demand due to the resurgence of production restrictions, and the supply is relatively stable, so the supply - demand pattern has not improved substantially [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2509, in the short - term (within a week), the trend is expected to be volatile; in the medium - term (two weeks to one month), it is also volatile; and intraday, it is weakly volatile. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the resurgence of production restrictions has put pressure on the price of iron ore [2]. Market Driving Logic - The resurgence of production restrictions has put pressure on the prices of raw material - related futures. The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed. Steel mills are actively producing, and the demand for iron ore shows good resilience, which supports the price of iron ore, but the incremental space in the off - season is questionable. - After the end - of - fiscal - year shipment rush, the shipments of overseas miners have declined, and attention should be paid to the subsequent decline. The port arrivals have also decreased, and the overseas supply of iron ore has shrunk. However, the domestic iron ore production has recovered actively, so the overall supply contraction is limited. - Currently, the demand for iron ore shows good resilience, which supports the price, but due to the resurgence of production restrictions, there are concerns about demand, and the supply is relatively stable. The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has not improved substantially, and the short - term trend will continue to be volatile [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating trend, with the price of iron ore 2509 showing short - term, medium - term oscillations and intraday weak oscillations, and attention should be paid to the support at the MA10 line [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For iron ore 2509, the short - term and medium - term trends are oscillating, and the intraday trend is weakly oscillating. The reference view is to focus on the support at the MA10 line, with the core logic being that the fundamentals are weakly stable and the ore price continues to oscillate [1] Market Driving Logic - The fundamentals of iron ore are weakly stable. Terminal consumption of ore is continuously decreasing and there is room for further reduction in the off - season, while overseas miners are actively shipping at the end of the fiscal year. Although domestic ore production is restricted, the supply pressure remains. The price of discounted ore has oscillated upward due to the repair of pessimistic expectations, but the supply - strong and demand - weak situation makes the fundamentals weak, and the upward driving force is not strong [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The iron ore price is expected to continue its low - level oscillating trend. The report suggests paying attention to the performance of steel products and the pressure at the MA5 line [2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating. The reference view is to focus on the pressure at the MA5 line, with the core logic being that the fundamentals are weakly stable and the ore price is oscillating at a low level [2]. Market Driving Logic - Steel mills are actively producing, and the demand for ore is good, which supports the ore price. However, the high demand has not led to inventory depletion because the supply has returned to a high level. There are concerns that the post - holiday demand may reach its peak, the fundamental outlook is weakening, and risk appetite is weakening before the holiday. Therefore, the ore price is expected to continue its low - level oscillating trend [3].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 4 月 8 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 悲观情绪未退，矿价低位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局相对良好，钢厂利润尚可，旺季生产积极，矿石需求维持高位，给予矿价支撑。 与此同时，港口到货表现弱稳，而海外矿商发运回落，外矿供应收缩，持续性有待跟踪，但内矿供应 维持高位，利好有限。总之，供弱需增局面下矿石基本面相对良好，给予矿价支撑，但关税风险超预 期，看 ...