美联储威廉姆斯：到目前为止，劳动力市场已展现出强劲的韧性。 ...

美联储理事库格勒：劳动力市场稳定且具有韧性。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor, Christopher Waller, indicated that the labor market may be approaching full employment, suggesting a potential shift in economic conditions and monetary policy considerations [1] Group 1: Labor Market Insights - The labor market is showing signs of nearing full employment, which could influence future Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates [1] - This assessment reflects ongoing trends in job creation and unemployment rates, indicating a robust economic recovery [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - The potential for full employment may lead to increased wage pressures, impacting inflation dynamics and monetary policy strategies [1] - A tight labor market could result in a more cautious approach from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate hikes [1]

Core Insights - The labor market is stabilizing, with a slow increase in the unemployment rate [1] - Historical economic recoveries suggest that a 3.5% unemployment rate is sustainable [1] Labor Market Analysis - The unemployment rate is currently rising at a gradual pace, indicating a stable labor market [1] - The Federal Reserve's perspective highlights that the labor market may be approaching full employment [1]

Core Insights - The New York Federal Reserve reported a decline in the labor market, income, and income expectations for April [1] Labor Market - The labor market showed signs of weakening, indicating potential challenges for employment growth [1] Income Trends - There was a noticeable decrease in income levels, which may impact consumer spending and overall economic activity [1] Income Expectations - Expectations regarding future income have also declined, suggesting a more cautious outlook among consumers [1]

美国首次申请失业救济金人数超预期下降，削弱了市场对劳动力即将恶化的预期。 根据美国劳工部周四发布的数据，5月3日当周，美国首次申请失业救济人数下降13,000至228,000人，低于市场预测的230,000人，结束了纽约州春假期间 的申请数量短暂飙升的情况。 与此同时，4月26日当周，持续申请失业救济的人数—衡量就业情况的代理指标—也下降了29,000至187.9万人，好于预期的189.5万人。 申请失业救济的人数下降，表明就业市场仍具韧性，与CEO们不断发出的警告形成鲜明对比。自新冠疫情以来，首申人数一直在20万-25万的健康范围内 波动，表明企业仍然不愿解雇在疫情期间难以招募的员工。 企业高管们不断警告商业环境恶化，但数据显示仍没有出现大规模裁员。这种矛盾情况能持续多久？ 表面上看，劳动力市场仍坚如磐石，但下方的裂缝正在扩大。 美国供应管理协会(ISM)上周的一项调查显示，4月份制造业就业仍然低迷，并指出"裁员是主要工具，表明减少人头变得更加紧迫"。 Workday、陶氏化学、CNN、星巴克、西南航空和Meta等公司今年都已宣布裁员计划。然而，整体而言，这些裁员规模相对有限，尚未在全国就业数据中 产生显著 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% for the third consecutive time, while continuing to reduce its holdings of Treasury and MBS at the current pace [6]. Economic Conditions - The unemployment rate has stabilized, and the labor market remains resilient, but risks of high unemployment and inflation have increased. Economic uncertainty has further risen, although economic activity continues to expand at a "steady pace" despite fluctuations in net exports [7]. Interest Rate Outlook - The current uncertainty requires the Federal Reserve to remain patient, with all members supporting this wait-and-see approach. There is no immediate need to adjust rates, and the Fed can act swiftly if circumstances change [8]. Inflation Outlook - Short-term inflation expectations have risen, while long-term expectations remain aligned with targets. The persistence of inflation will depend on the scale, timing, and expectations surrounding tariffs [9]. Employment Outlook - Wage growth has continued to slow, and the labor market is at or near maximum employment levels. Consideration of the distance and time to bridge any gaps between dual objectives is necessary [10]. Economic Slowdown - There are no signs of economic slowdown in actual data, and the economy remains robust. However, uncertainty is high, and the risks of economic downturn have increased [11]. Tariff Impact - Tariffs have been larger than expected, but no significant economic impact has been observed from tariff data so far. The inflation effects of policies may be temporary, and ongoing trade negotiations could substantially change the situation [12]. Market Reactions - The CME "FedWatch" tool indicates varying probabilities for future interest rate changes, with a notable percentage expecting the Fed to maintain rates or implement a 25 basis point cut [14][15]. Institutional Analysis - Analysts from various institutions suggest that the Federal Reserve is in a wait-and-see mode, with good employment data supporting the current stance. There is a consensus that a more significant rate cut may be necessary if the Fed waits too long [16][19][21].

美联储主席鲍威尔：如果确实看到劳动力市场明显恶化，当然希望我们能够支持这种情况。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：数据显示劳动力市场总体保持平衡。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the labor market has reached or is close to maximum employment levels [1] Group 1 - The current state of the labor market indicates strong employment conditions, suggesting a robust economic environment [1]