Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is pushing for trade agreements with partner countries to eliminate the need for the "retaliatory tax" included in the tax reform bill [1] Group 1: Trade Agreements - The White House's National Economic Council Director, Hassett, stated that if countries make announcements soon, Congress could remove Section 899 of the tax reform bill this week [1] - The "retaliatory tax" increases taxes on foreign companies and investors from countries deemed to impose unfair taxes on U.S. companies, including Canada, the UK, France, and Australia [1] Group 2: Digital Services Tax - The Trump administration and Republican lawmakers have criticized the digital services tax as discriminatory [1] - It is politically popular in European countries, making it unlikely for multiple nations to suddenly eliminate or even promise to eliminate the digital services tax before Congress votes on the tax reform bill this weekend [1]

Macro Insights - The report indicates a weak export performance, with port container throughput showing a month-on-month decline, suggesting a slowdown in external demand [2][3] - Domestic economic data for May shows a mixed picture, with industrial production slowing and real estate cycles weakening, while consumption growth was boosted by one-off factors [2][3] - The report highlights that some cities are increasing support for the real estate sector, such as Guangzhou's plan to lift purchase restrictions [2] Strategy Insights - The report suggests that short-term risk appetite may not improve, recommending a cautious approach to positions [3] - It notes that high consumer demand is difficult to sustain, with pressures from real estate adjustments and slowing exports becoming more evident [3] - The report emphasizes a focus on large financial sectors and suggests gradual accumulation in sectors with potential for acceleration, such as innovative pharmaceuticals and AI [3] Fixed Income Insights - The report discusses the necessity and limitations of interest rate policies, indicating that while there is a need for rate cuts, the space for such actions is limited [9] - It suggests that the bond market is currently biased towards a bullish direction, but with limited room for significant gains [9] - The report recommends focusing on specific opportunities in medium to long-term bonds and high-quality credit bonds [9] Real Estate Insights - The report tracks the implementation of the stock housing storage policy, noting that while there have been some positive developments, the actual scale of implementation remains limited [11] - It highlights that local governments are gaining more autonomy in the acquisition process, which could enhance the effectiveness of the policy [11] - The report anticipates that continued policy optimization could contribute significantly to stabilizing the real estate sector [11] Power Equipment and New Energy Insights - The report states that inverter exports reached 5.97 billion yuan in May, with a month-on-month increase of 2.7%, indicating strong demand from Southeast Asia [13] - It emphasizes that long-term demand for inverters is expected to remain robust due to factors such as rising electricity prices and increased installations of wind and solar power [13] - The report recommends specific companies in the sector, including DeYue Co., GuDeWei, and SunPower, as having strong performance support [13] Company-Specific Insights - The report initiates coverage on YunDa Co. with a target price of 13.05 yuan, highlighting its strong growth potential driven by domestic and overseas wind power projects [16] - It also covers YaXiang Integration, giving it a target price of 38.40 yuan, citing its competitive position in the cleanroom engineering services market [17] - The report highlights Changjiang Infrastructure as a buy with a target price of 64.73 HKD, noting its strong cash flow and consistent dividend growth [18]

Group 1: EU and US Tariff Negotiations - The EU is attempting to reach a trade agreement with the US similar to the one between the UK and the US, aiming to resolve some disputes before the July 9 deadline to avoid immediate tariff retaliation against the US [2][4] - As of June 19, major European stock indices fell over 1%, indicating market concerns regarding the ongoing tariff negotiations [2] - The US has raised tariffs on EU steel and aluminum products from 25% to 50%, with President Trump threatening to increase tariffs to 50% if no agreement is reached [5] Group 2: Global Investment Risks - The UN warns that due to tariff policy uncertainties and escalating geopolitical tensions, global foreign direct investment (FDI) is at risk of declining for the third consecutive year [3][17] - The UN's report indicates a projected 11% decline in global FDI in 2024, following a significant drop in 2023 [18] - The report highlights that trade tensions have led to a downward adjustment of most FDI outlook indicators, with early 2025 data showing record lows in transaction and project activities [19] Group 3: Internal EU Dynamics - Internal divisions within the EU are weakening its negotiating position, with some countries like France advocating for retaliation against the US, while others like Italy and Hungary prefer continued negotiations [9][10] - The EU is considering a 10% "reciprocal tariff" along with lower tariff quotas in sectors like steel and automobiles, which some member states may reluctantly accept [11] - The EU has proposed increasing purchases of liquefied natural gas and military equipment to reduce its trade surplus with the US, which stands at €198 billion annually [12]

Group 1 - Germany's new culture minister, Wolfram Weimer, revealed plans to impose a 10% tax on large online platforms like Alphabet's Google and Meta's Facebook, potentially escalating trade tensions with the Trump administration [1] - Weimer criticized these companies for their "cunning tax evasion" and emphasized that they benefit significantly from Germany's media, culture, and infrastructure while contributing little in taxes [1] - The proposal is part of a broader consideration by the German government to introduce a digital services tax, aligning with agreements made by the ruling coalition earlier this year [2] Group 2 - The timing of this proposal coincides with sensitive U.S.-EU relations, as the Trump administration has accused the EU of unfair trade practices and has plans to impose tariffs on EU imports [2] - The U.S. is prepared to retaliate against countries perceived to have unfair tax systems, with legislative measures in Congress aimed at imposing "retaliatory taxes" on nations that levy digital services taxes on U.S. companies [2][3] - Weimer's comments highlight concerns over monopolistic structures of large digital platforms, which he argues limit competition and threaten freedom of speech [3]

一项埋藏在千页预算法案深处的"隐秘条款"，正悄然引发华尔街恐慌—— 这个被称为第899条的模糊税收条款，可能将贸易战升级为资本战，直接威胁外国投 资者持有的数万亿美元美国资产。 这项条款出现在上周美国众议院通过的《大漂亮法案》税收与支出议案中，其标题为"针对不公平外国税收的执法补救措施"。条款提出：对于被美国认定存 在"歧视性"税收政策的国家，将大幅提高该国企业和个人在美投资的税率。 具体而言，这项措施将对目标国家投资者在美国的被动收入（如利息和股息）征收递增式惩罚税， 首先提高5个百分点，然后每年再增加5个百分点，最高可达 法定税率基础上的20个百分点。 第899条款的风险在周三美国法院阻止特朗普对等关税后变得更加紧迫。 关税一直被视为资助特朗普减税计划的重要来源——而减税正是其《大漂亮法案》的 标志性内容。关税收入的不确定性，让政府更迫切地寻找替代资金来源。 这一策略与白宫经济顾问委员会主席Stephen Miran去年11月提出所谓海湖庄园协议高度吻合。 Miran当时呼吁对美国国债的外国投资者征收"使用费"，以削 弱美元并提高美国制造商竞争力。 如果该立法获得通过，它将有效引入自1984年《赤字削减法 ...

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of Clause 899 in the recent tax and spending bill poses a significant threat to foreign investors holding U.S. assets, potentially escalating the trade war into a capital war [1][2]. Group 1: Legislative Impact - Clause 899 aims to impose increased tax rates on investors from countries deemed to have "discriminatory" tax policies, starting with a 5% increase on passive income, escalating by 5% annually, up to a maximum of 20% [1]. - This legislation represents the most extensive unfavorable change to foreign capital tax treatment since the 1984 Deficit Reduction Act and the 1966 Foreign Investor Tax Act [2]. Group 2: Targeted Entities - The clause primarily targets countries that impose digital services taxes on large tech companies like Meta, including Canada, the UK, France, and Australia, as well as those utilizing global minimum corporate tax agreements [3]. - Affected parties include sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, government investment entities, retail investors, and companies holding U.S. assets [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - Analysts predict that the clause could disrupt bond markets even before it is utilized, as it is seen as a tool for the Trump administration to negotiate against digital services taxes [5]. - The clause is expected to receive broad Republican support, increasing its likelihood of being included in the final Senate reconciliation bill [5]. Group 4: Economic Consequences - If passed, Clause 899 could generate an estimated $116 billion in tax revenue over ten years, but it may also lead to a significant withdrawal of foreign investment from U.S. assets [6]. - The current market response appears calm, but U.S. assets have underperformed this year, with the S&P 500 rising only about 0.4%, compared to a 20% increase in the German benchmark index [6]. Group 5: Broader Implications - The clause's implementation could undermine the attractiveness of U.S. Treasury securities for foreign investors, further pressuring the dollar and potentially increasing long-term interest rates [7]. - The overall sentiment suggests that the U.S. may face challenges in maintaining its status as a favorable investment destination due to the adverse tax environment introduced by Clause 899 [7].

Core Points - Germany plans to impose a 10% digital services tax on major online platforms like Google and Meta, citing tax avoidance and the need for these companies to contribute more to the local economy [1][2] - The German government is dissatisfied with the lack of taxation on substantial profits earned by tech giants in the country, which they believe creates monopolistic structures and threatens free speech [1][3] - The proposed tax could generate hundreds of millions of euros in additional revenue, but there are concerns about whether this tax burden will be passed on to advertisers and users, potentially increasing costs for digital services [5] Group 1 - The German culture minister, Wolfram Weimer, is drafting legislation for a 10% digital services tax targeting large online platforms [1] - The German government has previously agreed to such a tax in coalition talks, indicating a commitment to proceed despite potential trade tensions with the U.S. [1][4] - The tax proposal aligns Germany with other countries like the UK, France, and Italy that have implemented similar measures [2] Group 2 - There are concerns that the tax could escalate trade disputes with the U.S., as past actions have led to investigations and potential retaliatory tariffs against countries imposing digital taxes [3][4] - The tax could have broader implications for the global profitability of tech giants, with potential stock price volatility if other nations follow suit [5] - Alphabet and Meta have not yet responded to the tax proposal, but market sentiment is already adjusting to the uncertainty surrounding it [5]

点击图片▲立即报名 上周五（ 5月23日），特朗普忽然发难，威胁称："我建议从2025年6月1日起，对欧盟直接征收50%的关税。如果产品是在美国制造或生产，则不 征收关税。" 上周日（ 5月25日），与欧盟主席一通"愉快的电话后"，总统修改了时间， 把欧盟面临 50%关税的最后期限延长至7月9日。 " 做美国的敌人是危险的，但做美国的盟友是致命的。 " 文 / 巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 用一句话来形容自上周末到昨天早上的 "美欧周末关税战"，这句或许很合适： 谈钱伤感情，谈感情伤钱。 —— 基辛格 中美的关税斗争刚缓和不久，美欧忽然撕咬起来，着实出人意料。事发后，有媒体将之称作 "关税战 2.0"或"关税战再次升级"。 打个不恰当的比方，当前大国之间尤其是中美和美欧，彼此正处于因关税引发的 "离婚冷静期"之中，任何风吹草动都将改写当前格局。 特别说明下， 7月9日，正是特朗普所谓的"对等关税"90天暂停期的最终结束日期。 既然她主动打来了电话，那便忘了周末的狠话吧。 但更多人对此已有些脱敏。 "特朗普式的恫吓"在短短一个多月内被"腌"入人心，彼得森国际经济研究所高级研究员玛丽·洛夫利当时就说，对欧洲征 ...

不过，欧洲汽车制造商协会的数据显示，2024年从欧盟出口到美国的汽车约为75万辆，而从美国出口到欧洲的汽 车为17万辆。 目前，美欧之间已经启动了贸易谈判，欧盟提出了一份可能构成正式贸易谈判基础的方案。据报道，这些选项包 括在液化天然气和人工智能（AI）等领域进行投资，以及在钢铁、汽车、芯片、航空、制药和关键原材料等战略 领域开展合作。 据央视报道，欧盟委员会（下称"欧委会"）执行副主席兼贸易委员东布罗夫斯基斯在12日重申，欧盟将继续致力 于与美国通过谈判找到解决方案，同时推进与各成员国的合作，以便在必要时制定可能的应对措施。 英国杜伦大学跨国法教授兼全球政策研究所联合主任杜明教授对第一财经记者表示，美欧之间在贸易方面的问题 在于，特朗普政府认为欧盟存在过度监管和非关税壁垒问题，譬如对科技公司的征税以及征收增值税等等，美方 或寻求通过项目的方式来削减欧盟的相关壁垒。 特朗普"变脸"，贝森特吐槽欧洲 "我认为美国和欧洲（谈成协议）可能会慢一些。"贝森特表示。 美国总统特朗普再次把"炮口"对准欧盟。 在当地时间12日的白宫记者会上，特朗普表示，欧盟"更过分"，欧盟对待美国非常不公平。他称，欧盟对美卖了 1300万 ...

【环球时报驻英国特约记者 孙微 于文】"明天上午10时，白宫椭圆形办公室将举行大型新闻发布会，涉及与一个受人尊敬的大国代表达成重大贸易协议。这 是众多协议中的第一个。"当地时间7日晚，美国总统特朗普在社交平台上发出上述预告。他没有说明这个"受人尊敬的大国"是谁，但《纽约时报》等媒体随 后报道称，特朗普所说的是英国，英国政府随后也证实了相关消息。8日，特朗普和英国首相斯塔默几乎在同一时间、各自在美国和英国举行记者会，公布 协议的具体内容，情况逐渐明晰。英国广播公司（BBC）称，尽管美国总统大张旗鼓地宣传，这项协议也确实可能缓解英国一些行业的压力，但这与我们传 统上认为的贸易协议相去甚远。 " 是协议，不是协定 " 与美方的大张旗鼓相比，英国媒体、市场和官方的态度一开始就较为谨慎。英国天空新闻网称，双方的公告是围绕所谓协议的大致条款，这与英国和印度6 日签署的自贸协定完全不同。报道还配发了唐宁街10号的猫打哈欠的照片，图说为："那我就回去睡觉吧。" BBC称，英格兰银行货币政策委员会的前成员乔纳森·哈斯克尔表示，人们不应该期望太多，因为特朗普说的是"贸易协议"（trade deal ）而不是"贸易协 定"（tra ...