美国商务部长卢特尼克：小国需支付10%的基准关税。 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent increase in tariffs announced by Trump for 14 countries, effective August 1, which is close to the reciprocal tariffs from early April [1][14] - As of May, the average tariff rate in the U.S. was 7.4%, with specific rates for countries such as China (38.6%), Japan (9.3%), and the UK (6.2%) [2][15] - The U.S. may adopt a strategy of sending tariff increase notifications in batches to exert targeted pressure during negotiations [2][15] Group 2 - Trade negotiations between the U.S. and Japan have reached a stalemate, particularly over issues related to automobile tariffs, while discussions with Mexico are nearing an agreement [3][16] - The EU aims for a limited framework agreement with the U.S., maintaining a 10% baseline tariff but seeking reductions in tariffs on specific products [3][16] - If all tariffs take effect on August 1, the simple average tariff rate for the U.S. on these 14 countries will rise to 29%, only 4 percentage points lower than the initial reciprocal tariff rate of 33% [5][18] Group 3 - Trump's tariff strategy aims to achieve three goals: industrial protection, addressing twin deficits, and leveraging diplomacy, which may create internal contradictions [4][17] - The concept of reciprocal tariffs is viewed as discriminatory, with trade deficit size being a key consideration for determining baseline tariff levels [4][17] - Approximately 100 economies with smaller trade surpluses with the U.S. may face a 10% tariff, while 18 countries could see higher tariffs ranging from 20% to 70% if no agreements are reached [5][17]

2025 年 07 月 09 日 从对等关税到"歧视性关税" 世 界 经 济 证券分析师 赵伟 A0230524070010 zhaowei@swsresearch.com 陈达飞 A0230524080010 chendf@swsresearch.com 赵宇 A0230524080007 zhaoyu2@swsresearch.com 联系人 赵宇 (8621)23297818× zhaoyu2@swsresearch.com 美东时间 7 月 7 日，特朗普向日本、韩国等 14 国发送了上调关税的信件。新关税将于 8 月 1 日生效，税率较为接近 4 月初的对等关税。市场选择"理性忽视"，等待后续的数据验证。 一、美国关税执行现状？特朗普推迟关税暂停截至日，或分批发出关税上调信函 截至 5 月，美国平均关税税率 7.4%，加征进度偏慢。截至最新数据，美国对中国税率 38.6%， 对日本 9.3%、对英国 6.2%，对越南 4.8%、对德国 6%。主要产品关税中，汽车进口税率 13.4%， 钢制产品进口税率 29.5%、铝产品 23%，塑料产品 11.3%，电气设备 8.3%。 7 月 7 日，美国宣布提 ...

7月9日关税"大限"到来前，美国总统特朗普公布了下月将要对日本实行的新关税税率。美东时间7月7 日，特朗普在社交媒体平台上发布了致日本首相石破茂、韩国总统李在明的信件，表示美国将自2025年 8月1日起对所有日本和韩国产品征收25%的关税。 特朗普在信中表示，尽管美国与韩国和日本之间存在巨额贸易逆差，美国仍决定继续与两国合作。然 而，美国决定以更加平衡、公平的贸易为前提，继续向前推进。特朗普称，贸易逆差已对美国经济乃至 国家安全构成重大威胁，因此必须作出改变。自2025年8月1日起，美国将对所有韩国和日本产品征收 25%的关税，此项关税将独立于各类行业性关税。此外，任何试图通过第三国转运来规避该关税的做 法，也将被征以更高的关税。 不过，选择在美国境内建厂或生产产品的公司无需缴纳此项关税。此外，他还警告，若韩国和日本决定 提高对美关税，则美国将在现有25%税率基础上追加同等幅度关税。 一位白宫官员7日在被问及对日本和韩国的关税时表示，美国不会将针对特定国家的关税叠加在行业关 税之上。据贸易政策追踪机构"全球贸易预警"的说法，"关税叠加"是指对同一种进口产品适用多项关 税，导致"累计关税"。 特朗普称，他可以对 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the EU is making efforts to reach a trade agreement with the US before the deadline of July 9, in order to avoid an escalation of the tariff war [1][3] - The EU is willing to accept a 10% baseline tariff on many products imported from the EU, in exchange for the US lowering tariffs on key industries such as pharmaceuticals, alcohol, semiconductors, and commercial aircraft [1][3] - The EU is also urging the US to provide quotas and exemptions to effectively reduce the 25% tariff on automobiles and auto parts, as well as the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum [1][3] Group 2 - Following the news of potential trade agreement optimism, the euro strengthened against the dollar, reaching a high of 1.1780, marking a 0.5% increase and the highest level since September 2021 [3] - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen expressed confidence in reaching an agreement before the deadline, indicating a shift in the attitude of EU leaders towards accepting some level of imbalance in the agreement to avoid escalating trade tensions [3][4] - The EU leaders, including German Chancellor Merkel and French President Macron, have shown varying degrees of support for a quick agreement, with Macron emphasizing the need for a "quick and pragmatic" deal without accepting imbalanced terms [4] Group 3 - There are concerns within the EU about a rushed agreement potentially leading to significant imbalances, where the deal may favor the US at the expense of the EU [5] - The EU's chief negotiator, Valdis Dombrovskis, is set to meet with US trade representatives to seek a fair import tariff agreement that provides more predictability for businesses [5][6] - The EU has denied any possibility of concessions in technology sector regulations during the trade negotiations, reaffirming that their legislative framework will not be altered based on third-country actions [5][6]

特朗普宣布停止与加拿大所有贸易谈判。 特朗普表示，鉴于这项令人震惊的税收，美国特此终止与加拿大的所有贸易谈判，立即生效。美国将在7 日内告知加拿大与美国开展贸易所适用的关税税率。 目前，美国正与加拿大等贸易伙伴谈判，以在特朗普设定的最后期限前达成协议。美国一直反对加拿大征 收数字服务税的计划，并试图施压阻止。 特朗普4月2日宣布开征所谓"对等关税"，引发美国金融市场暴跌。在多方压力下，特朗普又在4月9日宣 布暂缓对部分贸易伙伴征收高额"对等关税"90天，但维持10%"基准关税"，同时威胁美贸易伙伴需在7月 8日前完成与美谈判。 美国总统特朗普27日在社交媒体上宣布，由于加拿大坚持推出针对美国科技公司的数字服务税，美国决定 立即停止与加拿大的所有贸易谈判。 特朗普称，这是对美国的"直接且赤裸裸的攻击"，称加拿大显然是在效仿欧盟。 同一天，美国财长贝森特表示，考虑从加拿大追加征收20亿美元的"数字服务税"。 对此，加拿大方面尚未作出回应。 此前，加拿大财政部长商鹏飞26日宣布，不会推迟向科技公司征收数字服务税的计划，数字服务税将自6 月30日生效。根据计划，加拿大政府将针对科技公司向加拿大用户提供数字服务或出售加 ...

英国4月对美货物出口大降 创1997年以来单月最高跌幅 英国国家统计局公布的贸易数据显示，英国整体货物贸易赤字从3月的199亿英镑（约合270亿美元）扩 大至4月的232亿英镑（约合315亿美元）。 沈敏 英国国家统计局12日公布4月份经济数据，显示英国当月对美货物出口下降20亿英镑（约合27亿美 元），创1997年开始记录相关月度数据以来最大单月跌幅。经济学家认为，这反映美国政府关税政策所 致冲击。 路透社报道指出，在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普4月2日宣布对美国所有贸易伙伴开征所谓"对等关税"后， 英国是最先与美国达成新贸易协议的主要经济体，该协议使英国免于被美国征收高达50%的钢铝产品关 税而维持25%税率，但英国所有输美产品仍需缴纳10%的所谓"基准关税"。 英国经济研究机构安永统计俱乐部首席经济顾问马特·斯旺内尔分析："美国贸易政策的拖累叠加了一系 列国内逆风因素，包括财政政策大幅收紧、过往几次升息决策影响传递滞后等。"导致GDP增速下降的 一大国内因素是英国政府4月起结束购房印花税临时优惠政策影响房市表现；另一因素是英国汽车制造 业产出以及对美国和欧洲联盟出口下降。 据路透社报道，面对通胀水平居高不下、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Gina Raimondo, indicated that a 10% baseline tariff is likely to remain in place for the foreseeable future, with the burden of these tariffs falling on foreign companies rather than U.S. consumers [1] Group 1: Tariff Implications - The 10% baseline tariff is expected to persist, impacting global trade dynamics [1] - Companies are urged to compete by selling products to U.S. consumers without incurring these tariffs on domestically produced goods [1] - Consumer goods companies have already indicated that they may raise product prices due to the ongoing effects of these tariffs [1]