Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Germany has strengthened border controls regarding immigration policy, but it will take time to see the intended effects [1]

Core Viewpoint - The risk of stagflation in the U.S. economy is re-emerging, with inflation expected to rise and economic growth to slow down in the second half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Inflation Drivers - Tariff impacts are not fully realized yet, as U.S. companies imported heavily in Q1 to avoid high tariffs, leading to high inventories. Once these inventories are depleted, companies will have to resume imports, likely passing tariff costs onto consumers [2]. - Immigration policies have tightened, leading to labor shortages in key sectors such as construction, agriculture, and elder care, which may push up wage levels and contribute to inflationary pressures [2]. - Moderate fiscal policy expansion is anticipated to contribute 0.4 to 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth over the next 12 months, increasing inflation risks [2]. Group 2: Economic Growth Projections - U.S. GDP growth is projected to be below trend levels, with estimates of 1.3% for this year and 1.2% for next year [3]. Group 3: Long-term Fiscal Concerns - The rapid passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill, which makes the temporary personal income tax cuts from 2017 permanent, is expected to increase the budget deficit by over $3 trillion over the next decade. This is unusual given the already low unemployment rate [5]. - The U.S. budget deficit is projected to remain above 6% of GDP in the coming years, with government debt reaching about 100% of GDP, and interest payments consuming 3% to 4% of GDP, which is unsustainable [5]. - Changes in the buyer structure of U.S. debt, with reduced purchases from foreign central banks and increased sensitivity from private investors, may lead to greater volatility in bond yields [5]. Group 4: Global Economic Outlook - Other regions are expected to experience slower growth but easing inflation, providing more room for central banks to cut rates. Asian exports are anticipated to decline further in the second half of the year, while Germany's fiscal and infrastructure spending may take time to support economic growth [6]. Group 5: Currency and Monetary Policy - The Nomura team holds a "soft dollar" stance due to stagflation pressures in the U.S., despite current interest rate differentials favoring the U.S. The dollar is considered significantly overvalued, and the persistent trade deficit may limit its performance [7]. - Concerns about the potential appointment of a "shadow Fed chair" by Trump could add uncertainty to monetary policy, as this individual might influence market expectations and complicate the current Fed chair's policy-making [8].

长期国债收益率连创新高，显示了投资者对日本经济的悲观态度。 特约评论员 熊夏柠 据相关报道，截至7 月 14 日，日本10年期国债收益率升至近两个月高点，至1.55%。这是自5月23日以 来的最高水平。同时，30年期日本国债收益率上涨6.5个基点至3.111%，而20年期日本国债收益率上涨 至2.56%。两年期日本国债收益率小幅上涨至 0.775%，五年期日本国债收益率上涨至1.066%。 长期国债收益率连创新高，显示了投资者对日本经济的悲观态度，虽然此前日本政府认为没有必要采取 特别应对措施，但是考虑到通胀、关税等因素，会否对日本即将到来的参议院选举平添影响或是变数 呢？ 日本通胀的抬头，以及开启加息进程，令市场对加息的预期升温，反映在了国债收益率。日本1月份核 心消费者通胀达到3.2%，为19个月来的最高水平，超过了日本央行设定的2%的目标。 民以食为天，对于日本民众而言，也在经历"米荒"，日本政府认为，这是旅游恢复、餐饮业繁荣、大米 需求量激增等多因素造成大米短缺并拉升了零售价格。相关数据显示，2020年至2023年，日本大米产量 减少超过60万吨；2023年大米收成更是创历史最低，仅达到661万吨。日 ...

【环球时报综合报道】编者的话：7月20日是日本参议院选举的投票日。除了物价上涨、同美国关税谈判问题之外，外国人问题也首次进入日本的 竞选议程，成为选举中的焦点议题之一。在日本人口老龄化、劳动力不足的背景下，该国不得不重视外国人带来的经济社会效益。但与此同时， 日本部分媒体和民众关于"外国人威胁公共安全""外国人不合理占用福利"等的抱怨声渐强，部分右翼政党也试图通过迎合这种不满情绪来吸引选 民。对此，有日媒批评称，日本政府长期对移民政策采取回避、放任态度是外国人问题根源所在。也有日媒发出警告称，让外国人充当经济社会 问题"替罪羊"的做法，有可能会在整个社会范围内传播排外思想，不利于包容性社会的构建。 一些针对外国人的指控 " 并没有事实依据 " 随着日本加速引进外国劳工和人才，在日外国人数量连续3年创新高。截至去年年底，在日外国人口约为376.9万，同比增长10.5%，其中永居者约 为91.8万，在各移民类别中数量最多。从移民来源国看，中国占比最高（23.2%），越南（16.8%）和韩国（10.9%）紧随其后。此外，外国游客的 数字更是庞大。去年，日本共迎来超过3300万名外国游客，超过了疫情前水平，旅游也成为 ...

Core Insights - Jamie Dimon, Chairman of JPMorgan Chase, indicated that tariffs, immigration policies, and deficits are contributing to inflation in the United States [1] Group 1 - Tariffs are identified as a factor leading to inflation [1] - Immigration policies are also highlighted as a contributing element to inflation [1] - The issue of deficits is mentioned as a significant driver of inflation in the U.S. economy [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that U.S. immigration policies and budget deficits are contributing to inflationary pressures [1] Group 2 - The CEO of JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, highlights the impact of immigration policies on the economy [1] - The discussion includes how budget deficits are influencing inflation rates [1]

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all up, with Dow futures rising by 0.29%, S&P 500 futures up by 0.22%, and Nasdaq futures increasing by 0.20% [1] - European indices also show positive movement, with Germany's DAX up by 1.18%, UK's FTSE 100 up by 0.24%, France's CAC 40 up by 1.24%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up by 1.09% [1] - WTI crude oil is up by 0.20%, priced at $68.47 per barrel, while Brent crude oil is up by 0.16%, priced at $70.26 per barrel [1] Corporate Insights - Bank of America has raised its S&P 500 year-end target from 5600 to 6300, with a 12-month target of 6600, citing strong corporate resilience despite economic challenges [2] - Goldman Sachs suggests the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates in September, three months earlier than previously expected, due to moderate inflation and a cooling job market [2] - The Mannheim used car value index has seen a significant increase, with a 1.6% month-over-month rise and a 6.3% year-over-year increase, attributed to tariffs affecting new car sales [3] - Apple is undergoing a major management change as COO Jeff Williams retires, with Sabih Khan set to take over amid challenges such as tariff costs and slowing iPhone growth [6] - Google is focusing its AI investments on infrastructure, with a commitment of approximately $75 billion for data center development [7] - Starbucks' China business is attracting bids with a valuation of up to $10 billion, with several private equity firms interested in acquiring stakes [8] - WPP has issued a profit warning, lowering its 2025 revenue forecast by 3% to 5% due to client losses, including a significant contract with Mars worth $1.7 billion [9] - Merck is nearing a $10 billion acquisition of Verona Pharmaceuticals, focusing on respiratory drug development [10]

Group 1: Economic and Public Service Reforms - The UK government under Prime Minister Keir Starmer aims to stabilize the economy and improve public services, with a focus on the National Health Service (NHS) reform and increasing investment in primary healthcare [1][2] - The UK's annual inflation rate has decreased from its peak in 2023, nearing the Bank of England's target by the first quarter of 2025, attributed to fiscal discipline and coordination with the central bank [1] - Despite these efforts, the overall economic growth remains weak, with the International Monetary Fund predicting a growth rate of around 1.1% for 2025, below the average of major developed economies [1] Group 2: Immigration Policy and Foreign Relations - The Labour government has terminated the previous government's "Rwanda plan" but maintains a focus on strengthening border enforcement and curbing illegal immigration, attempting to balance left-wing and right-wing voter expectations [2] - Starmer's government emphasizes "pragmatic cooperation" in foreign relations, seeking to improve ties with the EU, marking the first formal summit since Brexit with EU leaders in May [2] - The relationship with the United States remains stable, although there are existing differences on issues such as the Middle East situation and US-UK trade negotiations [2] Group 3: Public Sentiment and Political Landscape - Public opinion polls indicate that while Labour's support is higher than the Conservative Party, it has declined compared to the last election, reflecting dissatisfaction with the government's slow reform pace [3] - The emergence of the new right-wing party, the Reform Party, has surpassed Labour in some polls, attracting significant support from centrist voters [3] - Analysts note that Starmer's cautious and pragmatic governance style prioritizes repair and recovery, raising questions about the government's willingness to pursue more ambitious reforms [3]

Group 1 - The upcoming phone call between President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky will address the sudden halt of key weapon shipments to Ukraine [1] - Trump expressed disappointment regarding his conversation with Russian President Putin, indicating he does not believe Putin intends to cease actions [2] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, with an unexpected drop in the unemployment rate, leading Trump to share positive economic performance videos on social media [3] - Trump announced plans to send letters to trade partners to set unilateral tariff rates, with tariffs ranging from 10% to 70% starting August 1 [4] - Trump is planning to host a UFC event at the White House next year to celebrate the 250th anniversary of American independence [5] - The "Big and Beautiful" bill passed the House despite two Republican defections, and Trump is set to sign it [6] - An executive order was signed by Trump to study increasing entrance fees for foreign tourists to U.S. national parks, ensuring priority for American residents [7] Group 2 - Trump indicated a willingness to allow immigrant workers to remain in the U.S. for agricultural work, contingent on employer sponsorship, amid tightening immigration policies and labor shortages in agriculture [8] - Trump stated that a decision on whether Hamas will accept a ceasefire agreement is expected within the next 24 hours [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that President Trump is willing to allow immigrants, who are employed and guaranteed by American farmers, to remain in the country [1]