Report Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Date: March 18, 2026 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Core Viewpoints - The external US soybean futures contracts are weak, with the main contract approaching 1155 cents. The market is more concerned about the Middle East situation. Although short - term oil prices are stable due to reserve releases, there is a basis for continued upward movement in the medium term, and agricultural product prices are affected by oil prices. The US President's visit to China may bring positive news for US soybean exports. Even with a bumper harvest in South America, US soybeans may still strengthen under macro - influence [6] - Domestic soybean meal rose this week, with a more significant increase than the external market. Due to changes in the Brazilian soybean export quarantine process, there may be a short - term supply shortage in April. In a bullish macro - environment, soybean meal may run strongly, but do not chase high entry considering the South American bumper harvest [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: For contracts such as bean粕2605, bean粕2607, and bean粕2609, the prices showed a decline, with the decline rates of - 0.42%, - 0.28%, and - 0.33% respectively. The trading volume and changes in open interest varied [6] - **Operation Suggestions**: In a bullish macro - environment, soybean meal may run strongly, but do not chase high entry considering the South American bumper harvest [6] 2. Industry News - **USDA March Supply and Demand Report**: Argentina's 2025/2026 soybean production is expected to be reduced from 48.5 million tons to 48 million tons, while exports remain at 8.25 million tons. Brazil's production is 180 million tons and exports are 114 million tons, both unchanged from last month. China's imports are 112 million tons, also unchanged. Global production is slightly reduced to 427.18 million tons, and global inventory is slightly reduced to 125.31 million tons [9] - **USDA March Supply and Demand Report for the US**: The sown area, harvested area, yield, production, exports, and ending inventory of US soybeans in 2025/26 are all the same as in February. Imports and crush volume are both increased by 0.5 million bushels [10] - **China's Import Data**: In February 2026, the total import of soybeans was 5.976 million tons, the lowest this year. It increased by 146,000 tons (2.50%) compared with the same period last year and decreased by 595,000 tons compared with the previous month [10] 3. Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including the spread between bean meal contracts, exchange rates, factory - gate prices, and basis of bean meal contracts [14][16][17]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the strengthening of bilateral relations between South Korea and Brazil, highlighted by the signing of multiple cooperation agreements in various sectors including agriculture and commerce [1][2] - Brazil is identified as South Korea's largest trading partner in South America, with a bilateral trade volume exceeding $10 billion annually [1] - A memorandum of understanding on enhancing regulatory cooperation in the health sector was signed, which may help reduce trade barriers for South Korean beauty products entering the South American market [2] Group 2 - Brazil's population exceeds 210 million, making it one of the largest markets for beauty products globally [2] - South Korea's cosmetic exports are projected to reach $11.43 billion by 2025, with a 12.3% increase compared to 2024, and the number of countries and regions receiving these exports is expected to rise to over 200 [2] - The bilateral relationship has been elevated to a strategic partnership, accompanied by the signing of a "four-year action plan for strategic partnership" [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the recent trade of 60,000 tons of canola seeds symbolizes a thaw in Canada-China relations, indicating a return to business and improved diplomatic ties after a period of stagnation in trade since last October [1] - The significant shift in Canada's stance on electric vehicle tariffs, dropping from punitive rates of up to 100% to just 6.1%, reflects a desire to assert its own economic interests rather than merely aligning with the U.S. [3][5] - The new economic cooperation roadmap between Canada and China enhances communication levels, moving from lower-level discussions to ministerial dialogues, which is expected to improve efficiency and effectiveness in addressing trade issues [5] Group 2 - Canada's decision to "look east" is largely influenced by the unpredictable nature of U.S. policies, particularly under the Trump administration, which has strained Canada-U.S. relations [7][10] - The current state of Canada-China relations, while not fully intimate, shows a pragmatic approach where Canada is making decisions based on its own industrial needs rather than blindly following U.S. policies [12] - The article suggests that Canada's recent changes in foreign policy are a reflection of the evolving international political landscape, as allies like Canada seek to create more strategic space amid U.S. isolationism and protectionism [14][16]

Group 1 - The core discussion between Russian President Putin and South African President Ramaphosa focused on enhancing mutual cooperation in trade and investment [1] - Both leaders emphasized the importance of coordinating their positions within frameworks such as the G20 and BRICS [1] - The conversation also addressed the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with Ramaphosa expressing support for Russia's efforts to resolve the situation [1]

Group 1 - The UK delegation's visit to China is characterized by a focus on business collaboration rather than political issues, with a large contingent of 200 members including 50 tech companies and 30 financial institutions [1][3] - The UK aims to capitalize on the growing demand for renewable energy products, with exports to China reaching £34 billion in 2023, of which 35% are renewable products, marking an 18% increase since 2020 [3][4] - The UK government has strategically chosen to avoid political conditions in its discussions, contrasting with other countries that have included human rights issues in their diplomatic engagements [4][5] Group 2 - The visit is timed strategically before the US elections and following the EU's announcement of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, positioning the UK as a counter-narrative to US policies [4] - The potential for signing £10 billion in renewable energy orders could significantly disrupt the US's efforts to decouple from China, showcasing a pragmatic approach to international relations [5] - The UK delegation's focus on business rather than political rhetoric is seen as a way to enhance its economic standing and avoid the pitfalls faced by other Western nations [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the trade agreement between China and Canada regarding electric vehicles and canola seeds, indicating a positive step towards enhancing bilateral trade relations [1] - Canada will provide China with an annual quota of 49,000 electric vehicles, which will benefit from a 6.1% Most Favored Nation tariff rate, eliminating the previous 100% additional tariff [1] - The quota for electric vehicles is set to increase annually by a certain percentage, reflecting a commitment to growing trade in this sector [1] Group 2 - China emphasizes the importance of dialogue and consultation in resolving trade differences regarding canola seeds, indicating a willingness to consider Canada's reasonable requests within a regulatory framework [1] - The resolution of these trade issues is expected to positively impact the deepening of trade and industrial cooperation between China and Canada, ultimately benefiting the welfare of both nations' citizens [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent order of approximately 60,000 tons of Canadian canola seeds marks a significant thaw in trade relations between Canada and China, following a suspension of imports since October last year, indicating a potential reduction in tariffs and a pragmatic approach to bilateral trade [1][2]. Group 1: Pragmatic Cooperation - The timing of the order closely follows the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China, suggesting a calculated exchange of interests where Canada seeks tariff reductions on canola, while China aims for market access for its electric vehicles [2][6]. - This transaction reflects a mature economic relationship where both parties prioritize specific goods and quotas over vague promises, demonstrating a problem-oriented approach to trade negotiations [2][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The absence of Canadian canola in the Chinese market did not halt demand, as Australian canola quickly filled the gap, showcasing the resilience and diversity of global supply chains [5]. - The return of Canadian products to the Chinese market will lead to a dynamic adjustment in the distribution of market shares, driven by factors such as cost-effectiveness and reliability of supply [5]. Group 3: Global Trade Context - The agreement between Canada and China amidst a backdrop of rising protectionism and unilateralism highlights the potential for dialogue and cooperation between major economies, even in the face of disagreements [6][9]. - This development serves as a reminder that despite challenges to globalization, the intrinsic demand for complementary industries and mutual benefits remains strong [6][9]. Group 4: Broader Implications - The transaction is not merely about canola seeds; it represents a routine operation under international trade rules and a practical demonstration of rationality and cooperation between two nations in a complex global environment [9]. - The successful exchange of goods symbolizes a shift towards mutual benefit rather than zero-sum competition, emphasizing the importance of collaboration in the current economic climate [9].

Group 1 - Canada has decided to eliminate 100% tariffs on electric vehicles from China, marking a significant shift in its trade policy and a move away from U.S. influence [1][3] - The agreement allows 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles to enter Canada at a reduced Most Favored Nation tax rate of 6.1%, while China will lower tariffs on Canadian canola from 84% to approximately 15% by March 1 [1][5] - This deal is seen as a strategic maneuver for Canada to address domestic agricultural issues and to gain access to the Chinese market, which is crucial for its resource-dependent economy [3][5] Group 2 - The relationship between Canada and the U.S. has become strained, with Canada feeling that U.S. policies have been detrimental to its interests, particularly in the context of tariffs on aluminum, steel, and softwood [3][5] - The Canadian government under Prime Minister Carney is taking a calculated risk by engaging with China, as it seeks to stabilize its economy and support its agricultural sector while potentially facing U.S. retaliation [5][7] - This shift indicates a broader trend of allies seeking more flexible relationships and prioritizing national interests over traditional alliances, reflecting a potential decline in U.S. hegemony [7]

Group 1 - Canada and China announced specific arrangements to address trade issues in electric vehicles, steel, aluminum, canola, and agricultural products during Prime Minister Carney's visit, which was widely welcomed by Canadian public opinion [1] - The new trade agreement opens a market worth over $7 billion for Canadian workers and businesses, with Canada eliminating a 100% additional tax on Chinese electric vehicles and providing an annual quota of 49,000 vehicles at a 6.1% most-favored-nation tariff rate [1] - The agreement is seen as a significant positive factor for the Canadian economy, providing opportunities for discussions on long-term development prospects [1] Group 2 - The new agreement brings hope to Canadian farmers, particularly canola growers, who faced a $1 billion loss last year, allowing them to adjust their spring planting plans and improve cash flow [3] - Analysts believe that concerns about the agreement offending the U.S. are unfounded, as the U.S. has excluded itself from the electric vehicle sector and does not prioritize agricultural products [3] - A senior Canadian official indicated that Canada aims to engage in joint ventures and investment projects with Chinese companies over the next three years to develop domestic electric vehicles, positioning Canada as the first North American country to independently develop electric vehicles [4] Group 3 - The agreement is not viewed as a one-sided concession to Beijing but rather a strategic move by Canada to secure its own interests, with a return to 2023 policy levels for electric vehicles and a reopening of markets for agriculture [4] - The partnership extends to important cooperation in public safety and visa-free entry for Canadian citizens to China [4] - Carney emphasized the need to change the historically strained relationship between Canada and China, aiming to establish a new strategic partnership that benefits both nations [4]

Group 1 - Canada will eliminate the 100% additional tariff on imported Chinese electric vehicles, replacing it with a quota system that imposes a 6.1% most-favored-nation tariff on 49,000 vehicles, which will increase to 70,000 over the next five years [1][3] - In 2023, China exported 41,678 electric vehicles to Canada, with over 80% coming from Tesla's Shanghai factory, indicating a recovery to pre-trade friction levels [1] - The agreement is expected to lead to significant investments from China in Canada's automotive industry, creating numerous high-quality jobs and accelerating Canada's net-zero emissions goals [1][3] Group 2 - Canada plans to reduce the comprehensive tariff on canola seeds to approximately 15% by March, and other agricultural products will no longer be subject to Chinese countermeasures, benefiting Canadian farmers [1][5] - The Canadian government aims to attract Chinese investments in renewable energy projects, with discussions already held with CATL regarding battery production in Canada [5][7] - The agreements signed during this visit are seen as a revival of previously shelved cooperation documents, signaling a desire to deepen bilateral partnerships and advance trade issues [5][7]