一、中国制造业采购经理指数运行情况 9月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.8%，比上月上升0.4个百分点，制造业景气水平继续改善。 从企业规模看，大型企业PMI为51.0%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，高于临界点；中型企业PMI为48.8%，比上月下降0.1个百分点，低于临界点；小型企业PMI 为48.2%，比上月上升1.6个百分点，仍低于临界点。 从分类指数看，在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中，生产指数和供应商配送时间指数均高于临界点，新订单指数、原材料库存指数和从业人员指数低于临 界点。 生产指数为51.9%，比上月上升1.1个百分点，表明制造业生产扩张加快。 新订单指数为49.7%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，表明制造业市场需求景气水平继续改善。 原材料库存指数为48.5%，比上月上升0.5个百分点，表明制造业主要原材料库存量降幅继续收窄。 从业人员指数为48.5%，比上月上升0.6个百分点，表明制造业企业用工景气度改善。 供应商配送时间指数为50.8%，比上月上升0.3个百分点，表明制造业原材料供应商交货时间持续加快。 | | | | | | | = 17 . 10 | | --- | --- | ...

国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧解读2025年9月中国采购经理指数。9月份，制造业生产活 动加快，PMI升至49.8%，景气水平继续改善。装备制造业、高技术制造业和消费品行业PMI分别为 51.9%、51.6%和50.6%，均明显高于制造业总体，同时上述重点行业生产指数和新订单指数均位于扩张 区间，企业供需两端较为活跃；高耗能行业PMI为47.5%，比上月下降0.7个百分点。 （文章来源：国家统计局） ...

Core Insights - The S&P Global Flash Australia PMI Composite Output Index decreased from 55.5 in August to 52.1 in September 2025, indicating a slowdown in business activity growth in Australia's private sector [1][2] - The decline in new orders is attributed to a reduction in export orders, leading to the lowest level of business confidence in a year [1] - Despite the slowdown, private enterprises in Australia continue to increase employment steadily to manage existing workloads and clear backlogs [2] Economic Indicators - The average input costs for private enterprises in Australia continued to rise at a rate above the long-term average, while the increase in product sales prices has slightly decreased [1][2] - The manufacturing PMI index fell from 53 in August to 51.6 in September, and the manufacturing PMI output index decreased from 53.8 to 52.9 [2] Business Sentiment - Business confidence in the Australian private sector has dropped to its lowest level in a year, suggesting a potential slowdown in economic growth [1][2] - The negative impact of U.S. tariff policies is becoming evident, with new orders in the manufacturing sector returning to a contraction state [1]

Core Viewpoint - The latest data from S&P Global indicates that Hong Kong's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose from 49.2 in July to 50.7 in August, marking the best performance since mid-Q1 and the first return to expansion territory above 50 in seven months, reflecting an improvement in the business environment [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - In August, private enterprises in Hong Kong increased production for the first time in five months, although the expansion rate was modest, representing the most significant growth since December of the previous year [1] - The private economy in Hong Kong reversed a downward trend that had persisted since February, showing improvement in mid-Q3 [1] - Employment levels rose in August, breaking a three-month decline, which aligns with the increase in production by enterprises [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Despite a continuous decline in order volumes from overseas and mainland China, businesses have resumed production, with local market demand providing strong support [1] - The overall input costs increased in August, but the growth rate was more moderate compared to the previous month [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Usamah Bhatti, an economist at S&P Global, noted that while the latest PMI data shows an improvement in the business environment, new business volumes from mainland China and overseas markets are adversely affected by increased U.S. tariffs [1] - Bhatti believes that order growth is primarily limited to local demand, and several forward-looking indicators remain on a downward trend [1] - Companies are continuing to process outstanding orders while also reducing procurement activities, indicating that business production may rely on clearing backlogs for support [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant acceleration in the UK services sector, with the PMI rising from 51.8 in July to 54.2 in August, marking the highest level in nearly 16 months [1] - The composite PMI for the UK, which includes both manufacturing and services, increased from 51.5 in July to 53.5 in August [1] - The rapid expansion in the services sector is attributed to an increase in new orders and output, with the new orders index rising by over 6 points, the largest monthly increase since March 2021 [1] Group 2 - Factors contributing to the improved sentiment among UK service sector entrepreneurs include better sales channels and reduced concerns over US tariffs [1] - Despite the positive indicators, the services sector continues to face challenges, including a monthly decrease in employment numbers and uncertainties surrounding government policies and potential tax increases [1]

Core Viewpoint - The S&P Global Hong Kong Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.7 in August, significantly above July's 49.2, marking the first return to expansion territory in seven months, indicating a notable improvement in the business environment [1] Group 1: Business Environment - The increase in PMI reflects a significant improvement in the business environment, despite ongoing declines in overseas and mainland orders due to U.S. tariff measures [1] - Overall order demand remains stable, primarily supported by the local Hong Kong market [1] Group 2: Employment and Production - Private enterprises have resumed hiring, although the increase is modest, as business operations become more active and order demand stabilizes [1] - The pace of procurement activity contraction has slowed down [1] Group 3: Cost and Pricing - Rising raw material prices have led to an increase in input costs, although the rise is more moderate compared to the previous month, while output prices remain largely stable [1] Group 4: Future Outlook - Several forward-looking indicators continue to trend downward, with businesses still working through backlogged orders and further reducing procurement activities, suggesting that production may rely on clearing backlogs for support [1]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - In August, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing activity [1] - Large enterprises had a PMI of 50.8%, up 0.5 percentage points, while medium and small enterprises had PMIs of 48.9% and 46.6%, respectively, indicating a decline for medium and small enterprises [3] - The production index was 50.8%, up 0.3 percentage points, suggesting accelerated manufacturing production expansion [4] Group 2: Manufacturing Sub-indices - The new orders index was 49.5%, indicating a slight improvement in market demand, although still below the critical point [4] - The raw materials inventory index was 48.0%, showing a narrowing decline in inventory levels [4] - The employment index was 47.9%, indicating a slight decrease in employment levels within manufacturing [4] - The supplier delivery time index was 50.5%, reflecting faster delivery times from suppliers [5] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - In August, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [9] - The construction industry index was 49.1%, down 1.5 percentage points, while the services industry index was 50.5%, up 0.5 percentage points [12] Group 4: Non-Manufacturing Sub-indices - The new orders index for non-manufacturing was 46.6%, showing improvement but still below the critical point [14] - The input price index was 50.3%, indicating stable input prices for non-manufacturing activities [14] - The sales price index was 48.6%, suggesting a narrowing decline in sales prices [14] - The employment index for non-manufacturing was 45.6%, indicating weak employment conditions [14] Group 5: Business Activity Expectations - The business activity expectation index was 56.2%, indicating optimism among non-manufacturing enterprises regarding market prospects [15] Group 6: Comprehensive PMI Overview - The comprehensive PMI output index was 50.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points, indicating an overall acceleration in production and business activities [21]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In August 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing sentiment [2]. - The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, showing that the non - manufacturing sector continued to expand [3]. - The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities accelerated [3]. 3. Summary by Category Manufacturing PMI - **Overall Index**: The manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from July. Large - scale enterprises had a PMI of 50.8% (up 0.5 percentage points), medium - scale enterprises had a PMI of 48.9% (down 0.6 percentage points), and small - scale enterprises had a PMI of 46.6% (up 0.2 percentage points) [2]. - **Sub - indices**: Among the 5 sub - indices, the production index (50.8%, up 0.3 percentage points) and the supplier delivery time index (50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points) were above the critical point, while the new order index (49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points), the raw material inventory index (48.0%, up 0.3 percentage points), and the employment index (47.9%, down 0.1 percentage points) were below the critical point [2]. Non - manufacturing PMI - **Overall Index**: The non - manufacturing business activity index in August was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from July. The construction industry business activity index was 49.1% (down 1.5 percentage points), and the service industry business activity index was 50.5% (up 0.5 percentage points) [3]. - **Industry Performance**: Industries such as railway transportation, water transportation, air transportation, and capital market services were in the high - prosperity range above 60.0%, while the retail and real estate industries were below the critical point [3]. Composite PMI - The composite PMI output index in August was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from July, indicating an acceleration in the overall expansion of enterprises' production and business activities [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly, and structural issues such as prices are trending towards improvement. There will be a continued shift in the stock - bond allocation, with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise continuously [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Manufacturing - In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 pct and a year - on - year increase of 0.3 pct, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing's prosperity level. Except for the consumer goods industry, other industries' PMIs increased month - on - month. With the implementation of consumption - stimulating policies, the consumer goods industry's PMI is expected to stabilize and rebound [4]. - From the perspective of component indices, the production index was 50.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3 pct, and it has been in the expansion zone for 4 consecutive months, indicating an accelerated expansion of manufacturing production. The production and operation activity expectation index was 53.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.1 pct, rising for two consecutive months, showing a positive market expectation [4]. - In terms of enterprise scale, the PMIs of large and small enterprises increased month - on - month, and the PMI of large enterprises has been in the expansion zone for 4 consecutive months [5]. Non - manufacturing - In August, the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2 pct and a year - on - year flat, remaining in the expansion zone. The construction industry PMI decreased by 1.5 pct to the contraction zone due to adverse factors such as frequent extreme weather, while the service industry PMI increased by 0.5 pct to the highest point of the year, with an obvious improvement in the prosperity level [6]. - From the perspective of major classification indices, the new order index increased by 0.9 pct month - on - month, and the business activity expectation index increased by 0.4 pct month - on - month, indicating that service enterprises are relatively optimistic about the recent market development prospects [6]. Comprehensive - In August, the comprehensive PMI was 50.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3 pct and a year - on - year increase of 0.4 pct, remaining in the expansion zone for 32 consecutive months, indicating an accelerated overall expansion of enterprise production and operation activities [7]. Market - This week, the 10Y treasury bond active bond fluctuated in the range of 1.75% - 1.80%, and the 10Y state - owned development active bond fluctuated in the range of 1.83% - 1.89%. The bond market trading remained insensitive to economic data, with overall fragile sentiment and a stronger sensitivity to negative events than positive events [8].

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - In August, the Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4%, indicating an improvement in economic conditions compared to the previous month [2] - The production index reached 50.8%, up by 0.3 percentage points, marking four consecutive months above the critical point, suggesting accelerated manufacturing production [2] - The new orders index increased to 49.5%, reflecting a slight rise in demand, with notable performance in the pharmaceutical and electronics sectors [2] - The purchasing activities have accelerated, with the purchasing volume index rising to 50.4% [2] - The prices of major raw materials and factory prices increased, with the raw material purchase price index at 53.3% and factory price index at 49.1%, indicating an overall improvement in market prices [2] Group 2: Enterprise Size and Sector Performance - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 50.8%, up by 0.5 percentage points, indicating sustained expansion [3] - Medium-sized enterprises saw a decline in PMI to 48.9%, reflecting a downturn in economic conditions [3] - Small enterprises experienced a slight improvement with PMI at 46.6%, up by 0.2 percentage points [3] - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing sectors showed strong performance with PMIs of 51.9% and 50.5%, respectively [3] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index rose to 50.3%, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [5] - The service sector's business activity index reached 50.5%, marking a significant recovery and the highest point of the year [5] - Certain industries, such as capital market services and transportation, reported business activity indices above 60.0%, indicating robust growth [5] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 49.1% due to adverse weather conditions, reflecting a slowdown [5] Group 4: Comprehensive PMI Overview - The Comprehensive PMI Output Index increased to 50.5%, indicating an overall acceleration in production and business activities across sectors [6] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index were reported at 50.8% and 50.3%, respectively, contributing to the overall expansion [6]