宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2026 年 2 月 28 日 宏观和大类资产配置周报 春节后首周人民币资产股涨债跌 大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。 宏观要闻回顾 资产表现回顾 宏观经济 ◼ 本周沪深 300 指数上涨 1.08%，沪深 300 股指期货下跌 0.14%；焦煤期货 本周下跌 5.38%，铁矿石主力合约本周下跌 5.56%；股份制银行理财预期 收益率收于 1.85%，余额宝 7 天年化收益率下跌 13BP 至 1.01%；十年国 债收益率下行 4BP 至 1.79%，活跃十年国债期货本周上涨 0.18%。 资产配置建议 本期观点（2026.3.1） | 宏观经济 | | 本期观点 | 观点变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 一个月内 | = | 关注国内稳增长政策的落地情况 | 不变 | | 三个月内 | = | 关注 2026 年财政政策支出力度 | 不变 | | 一年内 | = | 地缘关系仍有较大不确定性 | 不变 | | 大类资产 | | 本期观点 | 观点变化 | | 股票 | + | 关注"增量"政策落实情况 | 超配 | | 债券 ...

Group 1 - The conference focused on macroeconomic policy goals set by the Central Economic Work Conference, emphasizing that development is the foundation for solving all problems in China, and growth is essential for development [1] - Experts suggested that economic growth should be maintained within a reasonable range by 2026, and that there is a need to effectively balance qualitative improvements with reasonable quantitative growth [1] - The implementation of more proactive macro policies and increased counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments were recommended to fully unleash growth potential [1] Group 2 - Fiscal policy should play a larger role this year, with a deficit rate higher than or at least not lower than the previous year, and an increase in the scale of national debt issuance to expand total expenditure [2] - To stimulate investment and consumption, a significant overall interest rate cut of at least 50 basis points for the entire year is suggested, along with better utilization of reserve requirement ratio cuts [2] - Strengthening the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is essential, with an emphasis on expanding the scale of new financial policy tools to leverage investment [2] - To stabilize investment and boost consumption, efforts to restore effective credit issuance conditions should be intensified, particularly in stabilizing the real estate market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The conference emphasized that development is the foundation for solving all problems in China, and economic growth is essential for high-quality development, highlighting the need to balance qualitative improvements with reasonable quantitative growth [1] Economic Policy Recommendations - Experts suggested that fiscal policy should play a larger role this year, with a deficit ratio higher than or at least not lower than the previous year, increasing the scale of national debt issuance, and expanding total expenditure [1] - It was recommended to implement a significant overall interest rate cut of at least 50 basis points for the year to stimulate investment and consumption, while better utilizing the space for reserve requirement ratio cuts [1] - There is a call for enhanced coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, leveraging new financial policy tools to expand scale and achieve a leverage effect on investment [1] - To stabilize investment and boost consumption, it is necessary to strengthen efforts to stabilize the real estate market and restore effective credit supply conditions promptly [1]

Core Viewpoint - The conference emphasized that development is the foundation for solving all problems in China, and economic growth is essential for high-quality development. It is crucial to balance qualitative improvements with reasonable quantitative growth, aiming to maintain economic growth within a reasonable range by 2026 [2]. Group 1: Economic Policy Recommendations - Experts suggested that fiscal policy should play a larger role this year, with a deficit ratio higher than or at least not lower than the previous year, increasing the scale of national debt issuance and expanding total expenditure [2]. - The current actual financing costs are still relatively high; to stimulate investment and consumption, a significant overall interest rate cut of at least 50 basis points should be implemented, along with better utilization of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts [2]. - There is a need to strengthen the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, leveraging new financial policy tools to expand their scale and achieve a leverage effect on investment [2]. - To stabilize investment and boost consumption, it is necessary to enhance efforts to stabilize the real estate market and restore effective credit supply conditions promptly [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall sentiment in the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors is supported by factors such as geopolitical situations, policy environments, and supply - demand dynamics. Different metals have different price trends and influencing factors. For example, copper prices are expected to rise slightly in the short term, aluminum prices are expected to remain strong, and the prices of other metals also have their own characteristics and influencing factors [5][8] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: The Fed's interest - rate decision and geopolitical situation led to a rise in gold and copper prices. LME copper 3M closed up 0.74% to $13,120/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 102,430 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 1,575 tons to 173,925 tons, and SHFE daily warehouse receipts increased by 0.3 to 148,000 tons. The spot discount in Shanghai and Guangdong was large, and the import loss of SHFE copper spot narrowed to about 400 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap copper price difference widened [4] - **Strategy View**: Precious metals continue to rise, and strategic resource demand is strengthened. The copper ore supply is tight, and the refined copper demand is seasonally weak. Global visible inventory continues to increase. Short - term copper prices are expected to rise slightly. The reference range for SHFE copper main contract is 101,500 - 105,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $13,000 - $13,500/ton [5] Aluminum - **Market Information**: Due to the escalation of the US - Iran issue and the strengthening of the equity market, aluminum prices rose significantly. LME aluminum closed up 1.59% to $3,263/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 25,330 yuan/ton. The SHFE - LME price difference narrowed. SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions increased by 93,000 to 810,000 lots, and futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.1 to 143,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot inventory decreased slightly, and aluminum rod inventory increased slightly. The processing fee of aluminum rods continued to rise, but the transaction was dull. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.2 to 500,000 tons [7] - **Strategy View**: The large increase in aluminum positions has increased price volatility. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories continue to accumulate, but high prices suppress downstream demand. LME aluminum inventory remains relatively low, and the US aluminum spot premium remains high, providing strong support for aluminum prices. In the context of loose domestic and foreign policies, aluminum prices are expected to remain strong. The reference range for SHFE aluminum main contract is 25,000 - 25,800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $3,220 - $3,320/ton [8] Lead - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the SHFE lead index closed flat at 17,016 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 101,000 lots. As of 15:00 on Wednesday, LME lead 3S fell $7 to $2,025.5/ton, with a total position of 171,300 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,775 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 100 yuan/ton. SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 29,400 tons, and LME lead ingot inventory was 211,200 tons [10] - **Strategy View**: Although the visible lead ore inventory has further increased, high by - product profits suppress the further decline of lead concentrate TC. Primary lead production has decreased slightly but remains at a high level, and secondary lead smelting start - up rate has increased marginally. The finished product inventory of smelting plants and social lead ingot inventory have both increased, showing a weak industrial situation. However, due to the impact of winter cooling on scrap battery transportation, the raw materials for secondary lead smelting have tightened, and the profit of secondary lead smelting calculated on a spot - order basis is under pressure. It is expected that the surplus of lead ingots will decrease marginally [11] Zinc - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the SHFE zinc index closed up 2.62% to 25,615 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 240,200 lots. As of 15:00 on Wednesday, LME zinc 3S rose $82 to $3,413/ton, with a total position of 234,300 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 25,240 yuan/ton. SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 28,300 tons, and LME zinc ingot inventory was 110,600 tons. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets on January 26 was 109,900 tons, an increase of 130 tons from January 22 [12] - **Strategy View**: The visible zinc ore inventory has increased marginally, and zinc concentrate TC has stopped falling and stabilized. Zinc smelting profits have improved slightly, and the destocking of domestic zinc ingot social inventory has slowed down. After the repair of the SHFE - LME ratio, the outflow of zinc has improved, and the domestic zinc industry remains weak. The US PMI data announced on the night of January 23 was slightly lower than expected, and the double - loose policy has not been reflected in economic data, so short - term bullish sentiment has retreated. However, the sharp rise in overseas natural gas prices has raised concerns about the costs of European smelters, leading to an increase in LME zinc prices. In addition, the current zinc - copper ratio and zinc - aluminum ratio are at absolute lows, and zinc prices are still in the process of following the sector to make up for the macro - attribute increase [13] Tin - **Market Information**: On January 28, tin prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The SHFE tin main contract closed at 443,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.63% from the previous day. In terms of supply, the start - up rate of smelters in Yunnan remained high last week, while the refined tin output in Jiangxi was still low due to the shortage of scrap tin raw materials. The upward momentum was insufficient after the two regions recovered from maintenance, and there were both constraints on the scrap side and downstream high - price wait - and - see attitudes, so short - term supply was difficult to increase significantly. In terms of demand, although high tin prices significantly suppressed downstream purchasing willingness, downstream inventories were generally low, and the acceptance of tin prices was gradually increasing. After the decline in tin prices last week, the rigid - demand restocking demand was released intensively. As of January 23, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 11,001 tons, an increase of 365 tons from the previous Friday [14] - **Strategy View**: In the short term, the tin price trend is determined by the capital game in the futures market. Against the background of the strong trend of precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors, tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 430,000 - 470,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $52,000 - $58,000/ton [15] Nickel - **Market Information**: On January 28, nickel prices fluctuated. The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 144,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.12% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium of each brand remained stable. The average premium of Russian nickel to the near - month contract was 200 yuan/ton, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel was 6,750 yuan/ton. In terms of cost, nickel ore prices remained stable. The ex - factory price of 1.6% grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was $54.54/wet ton, and that of 1.2% grade was $23/wet ton. The price of nickel iron fluctuated upward, and the average price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was 1,053 yuan/nickel point [16] - **Strategy View**: Although there is an expectation of an increase in refined nickel production in January, it has not been continuously reflected in the visible inventory. It is expected that under the expectation of a reduction in the RKAB quota in Indonesia, SHFE nickel will continue to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The short - term reference range for SHFE nickel prices is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M contract is $16,000 - $19,000/ton [17] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) closed at 168,830 yuan in the evening session, a decrease of 0.49% from the previous working day. Among them, the price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 163,500 - 175,000 yuan, with an average price decrease of 850 yuan (- 0.50%) from the previous day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 160,500 - 172,000 yuan, with an average price decrease of 0.45% from the previous day. The closing price of the LC2605 contract was 166,280 yuan, a decrease of 7.42% from the previous closing price. The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,600 yuan [19] - **Strategy View**: On Wednesday, most commodities rose, but lithium carbonate was weak, rising first and then falling back to erase the previous day's gains. After the previous rapid rise in lithium prices, the number of profit - taking orders increased. The fundamental improvement expectation of lithium carbonate remains unchanged, and the off - season destocking provides strong support. Downstream raw material inventory is limited, and it is expected that the bargaining power is not high. Recently, the commodity market has fluctuated greatly, and the exchange adheres to the main tone of strict supervision. It is recommended to wait and see carefully or try with a light position. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract today is 156,000 - 176,000 yuan/ton [20] Alumina - **Market Information**: As of 3 pm on January 28, 2026, the alumina index rose 2.8% to 2,808 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 647,300 lots, a decrease of 14,900 lots from the previous trading day. In terms of basis, the spot price in Shandong remained at 2,555 yuan/ton, at a discount of 256 yuan/ton to the main contract. Overseas, the MYSTEEL Australian FOB price remained at $304/ton, and the import profit and loss was - 81 yuan/ton. In terms of futures inventory, the futures warehouse receipts on Wednesday were 159,100 tons, an increase of 3,600 tons from the previous trading day. In the ore end, the CIF price in Guinea decreased by $0.5/ton to $61.5/ton, and the CIF price in Australia remained at $60/ton [22] - **Strategy View**: After the rainy season, the shipment from Guinea is gradually recovering, and the AXIS mine is resuming production. It is expected that the ore price will fluctuate downward. Attention should be paid to the support at the import cost position of Guinea ore. The over - capacity situation in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The National Development and Reform Commission has proposed to prevent blind investment and disorderly construction in alumina and copper smelting, and the market's expectation of the implementation of supply - contraction policies in the future has increased. However, the continuous rebound still faces three difficulties: over - capacity in the smelting end, downward cost support, and the pressure of expired warehouse receipt delivery. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,650 - 2,900 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [23] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Wednesday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 14,465 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.52% (- 75) on the day, with a unilateral position of 295,000 lots, a decrease of 8,706 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the price of Delong 304 cold - rolled coil in Foshan market was 14,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan from the previous day, and the price of Hongwang 304 cold - rolled coil in Wuxi market remained unchanged at 14,500 yuan/ton. The Foshan basis was - 415 (+ 25), and the Wuxi basis was - 165 (+ 75). The price of Hongwang 201 in Foshan was 9,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan from the previous day, and the price of Hongwang annealed 430 remained unchanged at 7,750 yuan/ton. In terms of raw materials, the ex - factory price of high - nickel iron in Shandong was 1,055 yuan/nickel, and the recycling price of 304 scrap steel industrial materials in Baoding was 9,450 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged from the previous day. The price of high - carbon ferrochrome in the northern main production area was 8,500 yuan/50 - base ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day. The futures inventory was 38,938 tons, a decrease of 7,180 tons from the previous day. According to the data on January 23, the social inventory decreased to 878,900 tons, a decrease of 0.51% month - on - month, among which the inventory of 300 - series was 599,500 tons, a decrease of 0.48% month - on - month [25] - **Strategy View**: Last week, the stainless - steel market was active in trading, and prices fluctuated greatly. Affected by the expansion of the nickel - stainless - steel price difference, some nickel - iron production capacity has shifted to the production of high - grade nickel matte with better profits, resulting in a tight supply of nickel - iron and limited high - quality and tradable resources in the market. In addition, the futures warehouse receipts are at a low level, and the stainless - steel market shows a structural supply shortage in the short term, and the near - month contracts continue to strengthen. In terms of inventory, although the downstream demand weakened before the Spring Festival, the enthusiasm of traders for stockpiling increased, and the social inventory continued to decline. On Friday, market news showed that the port logistics of the Indonesian Tsingshan Industrial Park may be suspected of monopoly. If the Indonesian government intervenes in the investigation later, the shipment of Tsingshan - related products may be affected, further increasing the uncertainty on the supply side of stainless steel. Overall, the expectation of tight supply on the raw material side has not been reversed, the stainless - steel spot market shows a tight pattern, and the price center is expected to continue to move up in the future, but the fluctuation may be large, and the risk of a callback should be vigilant. The reference range for the main contract is 14,200 - 15,100 yuan/ton [26] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Yesterday, the price of cast aluminum alloy rose significantly. The main AD2603 contract closed up 3.17% to 23,785 yuan/ton (as of 3 pm), the weighted contract position increased to 22,100 lots, the trading volume was 34,100 lots, and the trading volume reached a new high since listing. The warehouse receipts increased by 0.01 to 67,700 tons. The price difference between the AL2603 contract and the AD2603 contract was 1,855 yuan/ton, which widened significantly month - on - month. The average price of mainstream domestic ADC12 increased month - on - month, and the price of imported ADC12 increased by 200 yuan/ton. Downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand. In terms of inventory, the domestic three - place inventory decreased by 0.02 to 41,500 tons [28] - **Strategy View**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is strong, and the supply - side disturbance continues, providing strong support for prices. However, the demand is relatively average. It is expected that the price will be strong in the short term [29]

Report Investment Ratings Macroeconomics and Finance - Index: Long - term bullish, buy on dips [5] - Treasury bonds: Range - bound [5] Black Building Materials - Coking coal: Short - term trading [6] - Rebar: Range trading [7] - Glass: Hold off [7] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Hold off or hold long positions lightly and roll [9] - Aluminum: Strengthen observation [11] - Nickel: Hold off [12] - Tin: Range trading or take profit on previous long positions [13] - Gold: Range trading [15] - Silver: Bullish [15] - Lithium carbonate: Range - bound [17] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: Range trading [17] - Caustic soda: Hold off [19] - Soda ash: Hold off [26] - Styrene: Range trading [19] - Rubber: Range trading [21] - Urea: Range trading [23] - Methanol: Range trading [25] - Polyolefins: Weakly range - bound [25] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: Range adjustment [26] - Apples: Weakly range - bound [28] - Jujubes: Weakly range - bound [28] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: Short on rebounds [30] - Eggs: Avoid shorting in the short term [32] - Corn: Be cautious about chasing highs, hedge on rebounds [34] - Soybean meal: Bearish on rallies [35] - Fats and oils: Bullishly range - bound [41] Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their respective market fundamentals, including supply - demand relationships, cost factors, policy impacts, and international situations. It also analyzes short - term and long - term trends and risks of each product to help investors make decisions. Summary by Category Macroeconomics and Finance - Index: Affected by international trade policies, central bank policies, and market sentiment, it may range - bound in the short term but is long - term bullish [5] - Treasury bonds: Without significant negative factors, they may range - bound in a narrow range as there is limited impetus for further interest rate declines [5] Black Building Materials - Coking coal: Due to weak fundamentals, demand is sluggish, and supply disturbances may limit the downside. Short - term trading is recommended [6] - Rebar: With a slight over - valuation in price, weak short - term supply - demand contradictions, and a policy vacuum period, range trading is the main strategy [7] - Glass: With stable supply, weakening speculative demand, and limited downstream inventory digestion, it may range - bound around 1050 - 1070. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on glass and short on soda ash [7] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Supported by macro factors but with weak fundamentals, it may range - bound at high levels. Be cautious of pre - holiday profit - taking [9] - Aluminum: With stable supply, weakening demand, and cooling of market sentiment, it may adjust at high levels [11] - Nickel: Although stimulated by policy, fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to hold off [12] - Tin: With tight supply and stable demand, it may range - bound. Attention should be paid to supply resumption and demand recovery [13] - Gold and silver: Driven by geopolitical tensions and changes in the Fed's policy expectations, they are bullish. Silver is recommended to hold long positions, and gold is recommended for range trading [15] - Lithium carbonate: With supply disturbances and strong demand, it may range - bound [17] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: With low valuation, weak domestic demand, and high inventory, it may have a bottom. Range trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to policies and cost factors [17] - Caustic soda: With high supply pressure and weak demand, it may range - bound at low levels. Attention should be paid to supply - side adjustments [19] - Styrene: With high valuation after a rebound, it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs. Attention should be paid to cost and supply - demand changes [19] - Rubber: With supply contraction but high inventory pressure, it may range - bound. Attention should be paid to inventory and downstream demand [21] - Urea: With sufficient supply and increasing demand, it may range - bound. Attention should be paid to supply - side changes and demand trends [23] - Methanol: With weak domestic demand and strong local prices, it may range - bound. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situations and port arrivals [25] - Polyolefins: With increasing supply and weakening demand, they may range - bound weakly. Attention should be paid to cost and demand [25] - Soda ash: With supply over - capacity and cost support, it is recommended to hold off [26] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: With a decrease in global cotton output and an increase in consumption, long - term expectations are optimistic, but short - term caution is needed [26] - Apples: With slow sales in the main production areas and slightly improved sales in some secondary areas, they may range - bound weakly [28] - Jujubes: With the end of raw material acquisition in Xinjiang and stable market transactions, they may range - bound weakly [28] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: In the short term, prices may range - bound due to supply - demand games. In the long term, be cautious about the upside. Range - bound trading and hedging are recommended [30] - Eggs: With high valuation and supply pressure in the medium - long term, hedging of post - holiday contracts is recommended [32] - Corn: With short - term supply - demand balance and long - term loose supply - demand, be cautious about chasing highs and hedge on rebounds [34] - Soybean meal: With short - term support and long - term pressure, short - term range trading and long - term bearishness are recommended [35] - Fats and oils: Bullishly range - bound. Hold previous long positions and exit previous spread - narrowing strategies [41]

Group 1: Economic Policy and Market Outlook - The government aims to maintain a stable stock market, avoiding both a "mad bull" scenario and significant declines, with current policies being described as cautious yet effective [2][4] - There is an expectation that the real estate market may experience a policy moment similar to the "924" event in 2024 within the next three to four months [5] - The government has not introduced stimulus policies comparable to the "924" moment in the second half of 2025, partly due to a favorable stock market performance [4][3] Group 2: Pension System and Consumer Spending - Recommendations have been made to increase the rural basic pension by 50 to 100 yuan per month, aiming to raise the average pension from under 300 yuan to 1000 yuan over several years [2][6] - Increasing rural pensions is seen as a more effective way to stimulate consumption compared to funding mortgage interest subsidies [2][6] - The financial implications of raising rural pensions by 100 yuan per month would require an additional annual expenditure of over 200 billion yuan from the government [6][7] Group 3: Social Security System Reform - The rural pension system is broader in coverage compared to urban employee pensions, with 1.8 billion elderly individuals receiving rural pensions [6][7] - The central government has been gradually increasing its financial support for rural pensions, with the subsidy rising from 93 yuan to 143 yuan per month from 2021 to 2025 [7] - There is a call for the central government to take the lead in increasing rural pensions to ensure equitable distribution, rather than relying on local governments, which face varying financial capabilities [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - **Macro and Financial Futures** - The current macro - environment features global geopolitical turmoil and domestic structural differentiation with targeted policies for stable growth. The old US - led global system is ending, and the global financial market is in a risk - averse stage. China's economy is expected to achieve a GDP growth target of 4.5% - 5% in 2026, and the government is working to boost domestic demand [1]. - The RMB exchange rate has a solid basis for appreciation due to China's export resilience and increased corporate willingness to settle foreign exchange. However, its appreciation process will be relatively moderate [2][3]. - The stock index is in an adjustment stage in the short - term, with a continued structural market. In the long - term, the logic of loose liquidity driving the market remains positive [4]. - The bond market is not recommended for short - term chasing as the upside is limited despite improved market sentiment [5]. - The container shipping European route futures are expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with near - month contracts weak and far - month contracts relatively resistant to decline [6][7][8]. - **Commodities** - Lithium carbonate is likely to show "off - season not off" characteristics in the spot market, and it is recommended to go long on dips before early February in the futures market [11][12]. - Industrial silicon is expected to have an upward - biased price due to increased demand for export and supply - side disturbances. Polysilicon is in a de - stocking phase with no clear upward driver [12][13]. - Copper prices continue to adjust with limited upward momentum. Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly in the long - term, while alumina is expected to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be strong [15][17][19]. - Zinc prices are likely to be weak and volatile in the short - term. Nickel - stainless steel is expected to be strong with some fundamental support. Tin prices may maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation. Lead prices are expected to oscillate within a narrow range [19][20][22]. - For oilseeds, the external soybean market is weak and volatile, while domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal have different outlooks. For oils, the sector is likely to be strong in the short - term, with palm oil being the strongest [24][25][26]. - High - sulfur fuel oil has a poor fundamental situation but is supported by the Iran issue. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak cracking spread. Asphalt is expected to oscillate with limited upside and downside [30][31][33]. - Precious metals are in an upward - biased pattern but may face short - term correction pressure. Gold and silver can be considered for mid - term long positions on dips [34][35]. - **Chemicals** - Pulp and offset paper markets are relatively bearish, and it is recommended to wait and see. LPG shows an internal - external divergence. PTA - PX and MEG - bottle chips have different supply - demand situations, and it is recommended to go long on PX and short on polysilicon [36][39][41]. - Methanol is affected by geopolitical factors, and it is recommended to wait and see. PP is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation, and PE is in a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand [45][47][49]. - Pure benzene and styrene have improved supply - demand situations. Rubber is expected to oscillate widely, and it is recommended to go long with a light position. Urea is recommended to hold long positions [50][52][56]. - Soda ash is in a situation of increasing supply, and glass is in a supply - demand weak pattern. Propylene prices are driven by cost and are expected to be affected by geopolitical and device changes [58][59][60]. - **Black Metals** - Rebar and hot - rolled coils are in a low - level oscillation. Iron ore prices have fallen but have support below. Coking coal and coke prices are under pressure in the long - term. Ferroalloys are expected to oscillate at the bottom [61][62][63]. - **Agricultural and Soft Commodities** - Hog prices are expected to decline slightly, and the supply - demand situation is still unbalanced. Cotton prices are expected to oscillate. Sugar prices are short - term weak. Rubber is expected to oscillate widely. Apples' future performance depends on demand. Jujubes are in a low - level oscillation. Logs are recommended for range - bound operations and long positions on dips [65][67][76] Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Macro** - **Market Information**: Trump's statements on Greenland, central bank's payment settlement work meeting, and other geopolitical and economic events [1]. - **Core Judgments**: The global geopolitical situation affects the financial market, and China focuses on stable growth and boosting domestic demand [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate** - **Market Review**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar declined slightly. - **Core Logic**: China's export and corporate behavior support the RMB's appreciation, and the process is affected by the US dollar index and central bank policies [2][3]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Export enterprises can lock in forward exchange settlement, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling purchase strategy [3][4]. - **Stock Index** - **Market Review**: The stock index showed a differentiated performance, and the trading volume decreased. - **Core Logic**: Affected by geopolitical risks, the market is in an adjustment stage with a structural market [4]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Wait for short - term callbacks to increase positions [4]. - **Bond** - **Market Review**: The bond market showed a differentiated performance, and the money market was loose. - **Core Logic**: The bond market follows the stock market, and the upside is limited [5]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Hold medium - term long positions and wait and see in the short - term [5]. - **Container Shipping European Route** - **Market Review**: The futures market showed a "near - weak, far - strong" pattern. - **Core Logic**: The market is in a game between weak current demand and long - term detour cost support [6][7]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Trend traders can wait or operate in a narrow range [8]. Commodities - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Review**: The futures price increased, and the trading volume decreased. - **Industry Performance**: The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain is general, and the prices of upstream and downstream products are rising [11]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Go long on dips before early February and reduce positions before the Spring Festival [11][12]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon futures rose slightly, and polysilicon futures fell. - **Industry Performance**: The spot market of industrial silicon is general, and the photovoltaic industry spot market is weak [12][13]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Go long on industrial silicon and short on polysilicon, and reduce positions before the Spring Festival [13][14]. - **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Copper** - **Market Review**: Copper prices showed different trends in different markets. - **Industry Information**: Warehouse receipts and inventory changes, and Rio Tinto's production increase [15][16]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Do not build new positions above 100,000, hold long positions in the 90,000 - 95,000 range, and adjust positions flexibly in the 95,000 - 100,000 range [17]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices oscillated, and alumina and cast aluminum alloy prices changed slightly [17]. - **Industry Information**: The spot market of electrolytic aluminum improved slightly [17]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Aluminum is expected to be oscillatory and strong, alumina is expected to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be strong [18][19]. - **Zinc** - **Market Review**: Zinc prices showed a weak oscillation. - **Core Logic**: The supply is expected to be loose, and the demand is cold [19]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Weakly oscillate, and aggressive investors can try short - selling [19][20]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel** - **Market Review**: Nickel and stainless steel prices rose. - **Industry Performance**: The spot market prices and inventory changes [20]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Oscillate strongly, and pay attention to the supply and demand situation [20][21]. - **Tin** - **Market Review**: Tin prices were volatile. - **Core Logic**: The supply is affected, and the demand is in the off - season [22]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Be cautious when entering the market due to high volatility [22]. - **Lead** - **Market Review**: Lead prices oscillated in a narrow range. - **Core Logic**: The supply and demand are in a weak pattern [22]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Oscillate, and sell options to collect premiums [22][23]. - **Oils and Feeds** - **Oilseeds** - **Market Review**: The external soybean market rebounded, and the domestic market was weak. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The supply and demand of imported soybeans, domestic soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are different [24][25]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Exit the M3 - 5 long - short spread, and hold a small short position in rapeseed meal [25][26]. - **Oils** - **Market Review**: The oils market continued to strengthen. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The supply and demand of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil have different characteristics [26][27]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: The oils sector is strong in the short - term, and pay attention to the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [27][28]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: The fuel oil futures price increased. - **Industry Performance**: The supply and demand of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil have different situations [30][31]. - **Core Logic**: High - sulfur fuel oil has a poor foundation, and low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak cracking spread [30][31]. - **Asphalt** - **Market Review**: The asphalt market price decreased slightly. - **Industry Performance**: The supply and demand and inventory changes [31][32]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by geopolitics, the asphalt market is expected to oscillate [32][33]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Pay attention to long - short spreads, basis, and cracking long - positions [33]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver** - **Market Review**: Gold prices first rose and then fell, and silver prices were weaker [34]. - **Trading Logic**: Pay attention to geopolitical events, Fed policies, and other factors [35]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: The precious metals are in an upward - biased pattern, and consider long positions on dips [35]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper** - **Market Review**: The pulp and offset paper futures prices oscillated. - **Industry Performance**: The port inventory of pulp increased, and the downstream demand was weak [36]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Wait and see, and consider long positions in offset paper at low prices [36]. - **LPG** - **Market Review**: The LPG futures price increased. - **Industry Performance**: The supply and demand and inventory changes [36][37]. - **Core Logic**: The internal and external markets diverge, and pay attention to geopolitical and device changes [37][38]. - **PTA - PX** - **Market Review**: The PX and PTA futures prices changed. - **Industry Performance**: The supply, demand, and inventory of PX and PTA are different [39][40]. - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand situation of PTA and PX is complex, and the long - term pattern is good [40][41]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Go long on PX and PTA on dips [41]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips** - **Market Review**: The ethylene glycol futures price changed. - **Industry Performance**: The supply, demand, and inventory of ethylene glycol and bottle chips [41][42][43]. - **Core Logic**: The demand is under pressure, and the long - term pattern is bearish [43][44]. - **Methanol** - **Market Review**: The methanol futures price increased. - **Industry Performance**: The inventory decreased, and the downstream profit was affected [45]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by geopolitics, the operation is difficult [45][46]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Wait and see [46]. - **PP** - **Market Review**: The PP futures price increased. - **Industry Performance**: The supply and demand and inventory changes [46][47]. - **Core Logic**: The short - term supply - demand pattern is improved, but the long - term is uncertain [47][48]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Oscillate widely [48]. - **PE** - **Market Review**: The PE futures price increased. - **Industry Performance**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to decrease [48][49]. - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand pattern is unfavorable [49]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene** - **Market Review**: The pure benzene and styrene futures prices increased. - **Industry Performance**: The inventory and supply - demand changes [50][51][52]. - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand situation of pure benzene and styrene is improved [51][52]. - **Rubber** - **Market Review**: The rubber futures prices oscillated. - **Industry Performance**: The inventory and supply - demand changes [52][53][54]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by macro and supply - demand factors, the price oscillates widely [55][56]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Go long with a light position and pay attention to spreads [56]. - **Urea** - **Market Review**: The urea futures price increased. - **Industry Performance**: The inventory decreased, and the market sentiment changed [56][57]. - **Core Logic**: The supply is excessive, and the price is affected by policies [57]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Hold long positions [57]. - **Glass - Soda Ash** - **Soda Ash** - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures price decreased. - **Industry Performance**: The inventory decreased, and the supply is expected to increase [58]. - **Core Logic**: The supply is excessive, and the price is under pressure [58]. - **Glass** - **Market Review**: The glass futures price decreased. - **Industry Performance**: The inventory decreased, but the demand is weak [59]. - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand is weak, and the price has no trend [59]. - **Propylene** - **Market Review**: The propylene futures price increased. - **Industry Performance**: The supply and demand and inventory changes [59][60]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by cost and geopolitics, the supply - demand is balanced [60]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Pay attention to geopolitical and device changes [60]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils** - **Market Review**: The prices oscillated, and the trading volume was low. - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand is neutral, and the price is affected by raw materials [61]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: The price will oscillate in a certain range [61]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Review**: The iron ore price continued to fall. - **Core Logic**: The previous high valuation is being adjusted, but there is support below [62]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Review**: The prices oscillated. - **Core Logic**: The supply is increasing, and the price is under pressure in the long - term [63]. - **Ferroalloys** - **Market Review**: The ferroalloys prices oscillated. - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand is weak, and the price is supported by cost [63]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Oscillate at the bottom [64]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Hogs** - **Market Review**: The hog futures price decreased. - **Industry Performance**: The supply - demand is unbalanced, and the price is under pressure [65][66]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Pay attention to pre - festival stocking demand [67]. - **Cotton** - **Market Review**: The cotton futures price oscillated. - **Industry Performance**: The inventory increased, and the supply - demand situation is complex [67]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Oscillate and pay attention to downstream imports and orders [68].

Economic Overview - In 2025, China's GDP is projected to reach 1401879 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0% based on constant prices. Quarterly growth rates are 5.4% in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, 4.8% in Q3, and 4.5% in Q4 [1] Policy Measures - The macroeconomic policies have played a crucial role in achieving the economic growth target for 2025, characterized by a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately accommodative monetary policy [1] - Total fiscal expenditure from January to November 2025 is approximately 35 trillion yuan, with general budget expenditure around 24.9 trillion yuan (up 1.4% year-on-year) and fund expenditure about 9.2 trillion yuan (up 13.7% year-on-year). Total fiscal expenditure for the year is expected to exceed 40 trillion yuan [2] - The social financing scale increased by 35.6 trillion yuan, marking an 8.3% year-on-year growth, with combined fiscal and financial support reaching approximately 75 to 80 trillion yuan, providing strong support for macroeconomic stability, employment, income, and social welfare [2] Structural Adjustments - Significant support for structural adjustments and key sectors has been noted, with the top ten fiscal expenditure categories closely related to people's livelihoods. Social security spending leads at over 4 trillion yuan, followed by education at 3.8 trillion yuan and healthcare at 1.9 trillion yuan [2] - Investment in high-tech industries has grown rapidly, outpacing overall investment and economic growth, with fiscal spending in technology reaching 889.2 billion yuan (up 7.9%) [2] Cost Reduction and Efficiency - Macroeconomic policies have been vital in reducing costs and improving efficiency, with export tax rebates reaching 1.9 trillion yuan (up 5.6%) from January to November 2025. The net interest margin for commercial banks has dropped to a historical low of 1.42% [4] - Since 2018, interest rate cuts have occurred over ten times, contributing to cost reduction and efficiency improvements that support macroeconomic stability [4] Focus on Livelihood and Risk Management - Increasing emphasis on livelihood protection within macroeconomic policies has been observed [4] - Risk prevention and expectation management have become increasingly important, with the People's Bank of China introducing structural monetary policy tools to support capital markets, totaling 800 billion yuan, which significantly boosts market confidence [4] - Continued proactive macroeconomic policies are expected to persist into 2026, potentially with even stronger measures [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings Macroeconomic and Financial - Index: Long - term optimistic, buy on dips [1][5] - Treasury bonds: Range - bound [1][5] Black Building Materials - Coking coal: Short - term trading [1][7] - Rebar: Range trading [1][7] - Glass: Sell on rallies [1][8] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Exit long positions on rallies and wait and see [1][10] - Aluminum: Strengthen observation [1][13] - Nickel: Wait and see [1][14] - Tin: Range trading or take profit on previous long positions [1][15] - Gold: Range trading [1][18] - Silver: Bullish [1][16] - Lithium carbonate: Range - bound [1][18] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: Range trading [1][20] - Caustic soda: Temporarily wait and see [1][21] - Soda ash: Temporarily wait and see [1][28] - Styrene: Range trading [1][22] - Rubber: Range trading [1][22] - Urea: Range trading [1][25] - Methanol: Range trading [1][25] - Polyolefins: Weakly range - bound [1][26] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: Range adjustment [1][28] - Apples: Weakly range - bound [1][29] - Jujubes: Weakly range - bound [1][30] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: Short - term rebound, roll short opportunities [1][32] - Eggs: Not advisable to short in the short term [1][35] - Corn: Be cautious about chasing highs, wait for rebounds to hedge [1][37] - Soybean meal: Bearish on rallies [1][39] - Oils: Weakly range - bound [1][40] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and trading strategies for various futures products in different industries, considering factors such as supply - demand relations, cost changes, geopolitical situations, and policy impacts [1][5][7] Summary by Directory Macroeconomic and Financial - Index: Although the external environment is deteriorating and may put pressure on the index, it is still optimistic in the long - term, and investors can buy on dips [5] - Treasury bonds: Yields of various maturities declined yesterday, with the long - end declining more. The market shows a situation where trading positions are passing on to allocation positions, and treasury bonds are expected to move in a range [5] Black Building Materials - Coking coal: The coal market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment due to weak fundamentals. Although supply may be tightened, demand is weak, and prices are under pressure. Short - term trading is recommended [7] - Rebar: Futures prices are weakly running. The valuation is neutral, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant. Range trading is the main strategy [7] - Glass: Speculative sentiment has cooled. Although the inventory pressure of float glass factories has eased, the inventory in the middle reaches has increased. Demand may decline before the Spring Festival, and prices are expected to be weakly range - bound. Sell on rallies [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Prices have risen first and then fallen, and are in a high - level range. Although the long - term supply - demand shortage is expected, short - term support has decreased. Investors can exit long positions on rallies [10][11][12] - Aluminum: The prices of bauxite are under pressure to decline. The supply of alumina and electrolytic aluminum is relatively stable, but demand is entering the off - season. The market may continue to adjust at a high level, and investors are advised to strengthen observation [13] - Nickel: Although the reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas has boosted prices, the current market has fully priced in. The fundamentals are weak, and investors are advised to wait and see [14] - Tin: Supply is tight, and downstream consumption maintains rigid demand. Prices are expected to be range - bound. Range trading or taking profit on previous long positions is recommended [15][16] - Gold and silver: Geopolitical tensions have increased, and the US economic data is weak. The mid - term price centers of gold and silver have moved up. Gold is suitable for range trading, and silver is recommended to hold long positions [16][17][18] - Lithium carbonate: Supply and demand are both in a state of change. The price is expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to the disturbances at the Yichun mine end [18] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The bottom may have emerged. Although the current supply - demand situation is weak, the valuation is low, and there may be structural opportunities in the long - term. Range trading is recommended [20] - Caustic soda: Demand is difficult to support, and supply pressure is large. There is short - term delivery pressure, and investors are advised to wait and see [21] - Soda ash: Supply is in surplus, but the cost support is strong. The downward space of the market may be limited, and investors are advised to temporarily leave the market and wait and see [28] - Styrene: The previous rebound was fast, but the current valuation is high. Range trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to the improvement of cost and supply - demand patterns [22] - Rubber: The bottom support of natural rubber is weakening, and the seasonal inventory accumulation trend remains unchanged. The market may be weakly range - bound in the short - term [22] - Urea: Supply is increasing, demand is relatively stable, and prices are expected to be range - bound. Attention should be paid to factors such as compound fertilizer start - up and export policies [25] - Methanol: The supply in the inland area has recovered, and the demand for methanol - to - olefins remains high, but the traditional terminal demand is weak. The price in some areas is strong, and range trading is recommended [25] - Polyolefins: The cost support is strengthened, but the upward space of prices is limited. PE and PP are expected to be weakly range - bound, and short on rallies is the main strategy [26] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: Global cotton supply has decreased, and demand has increased. Although there is a high - level correction in the short - term, the long - term expectation is optimistic [28] - Apples: The Spring Festival stocking is in progress, but the transaction of fruit farmers' goods is not fast. Prices are expected to be weakly range - bound [29][30] - Jujubes: The acquisition in Xinjiang has ended, and the market transactions in Hebei and Guangdong are okay. Prices are expected to be weakly range - bound [30] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: The short - term price is under pressure due to supply and demand factors. In the long - term, the price may be affected by capacity reduction. Short on rallies is recommended for off - season contracts, and be cautious about bullishness for far - month contracts [32][34] - Eggs: The short - term spot price is expected to be strong, not advisable to short. In the medium - term, the pressure of new production is not large. In the long - term, the capacity clearance still takes time, and attention should be paid to external factors [35][37] - Corn: The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and the long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. Be cautious about chasing highs and wait for rebounds to hedge [37][38][39] - Soybean meal: The short - term price is supported by cost, and the far - month price is under pressure. Bearish on rallies is the main strategy [39] - Oils: The short - term trends of different oils are differentiated. Rapeseed oil is weakly range - bound, and the rebounds of soybean oil and palm oil are limited. Attention can be paid to the narrowing strategy of the spreads between rapeseed oil and palm oil and between rapeseed oil and soybean oil [40][45]