Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the issuance volume in the primary market of Chinese offshore bonds declined, with 5 new bonds issued, totaling approximately USD 680 million. The secondary market saw an expanded decline in the high - yield segment. The yields of US Treasuries increased significantly, and various central banks around the world had different monetary policy decisions. There were also multiple macro - economic events and corporate - related news [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Primary Market - The issuance volume in the primary market of Chinese offshore bonds decreased last week, with 5 new bonds issued, totaling about USD 680 million. China Power Construction Group issued a USD 300 million green bond, the largest issuance scale of the week, and Qingdao Pingdu Holdings Group issued a USD 200 million social responsibility bond with a coupon rate of 6.5%, the highest - priced new bond of the week [1][8][13] 2. Secondary Market 2.1 Chinese US - dollar Bond Index Performance - The Chinese US - dollar bond index (Bloomberg Barclays) fell 0.39% week - on - week, and the emerging - market US - dollar bond index dropped 0.99%. The investment - grade index closed at 202.6233, down 0.35% for the week, and the high - yield index closed at 163.3203, down 0.66% [10] - The Chinese US - dollar bond return index (Markit iBoxx) declined 0.37% week - on - week. The investment - grade return index closed at 244.9554, down 0.23% for the week, and the high - yield return index closed at 240.2515, down 1.66% [14] 2.2 Chinese US - dollar Bond Performance by Industry - Different industries had different yield changes, with only the non - essential consumer goods sector rising, and the real estate and energy sectors leading the decline. For example, the non - essential consumer goods sector had a yield decline of 8.9bps, while the real estate sector's yield increased by 6.7Mbps, and the energy sector's yield increased by 130.5bps [19][21] 2.3 Chinese US - dollar Bond Performance by Different Ratings - According to Bloomberg's comprehensive ratings, both investment - grade and high - yield names declined. The weekly yields of A - rated, BBB - rated, BB - rated, DD + to NR - rated, and unrated names all increased [21] 2.4 Hot Events in the Bond Market Last Week - Sunac China Holdings is expected to significantly narrow its attributable loss in 2025. Fanhai Holding had overdue interest - bearing debts of 34.001 billion yuan as of February 28. Shanghai Shimao Construction had an additional approximately 730 million yuan of overdue debts, with a cumulative overdue bond principal and interest of about 3.36 billion yuan [22][23][24] 2.5 Rating Adjustments of Entities Last Week - Moody's maintained the rating and stable outlook of China Guangfa Bank. S&P adjusted the outlook of China Jinmao to negative, maintained the stable outlook of China Overseas Grand Oceans Group, and also maintained the stable outlook of Poly Developments. The reasons were related to the companies' asset quality, leverage ratios, and market environment [26] 3. US Treasury Quotes - The report provides quotes of US Treasuries, including details such as code, maturity date, current price, yield to maturity, and coupon for 30 US Treasuries with maturities over 6 months, sorted from high to low by yield to maturity [27] 4. Macro Data Tracking - As of March 20, the yields of US Treasuries at different maturities increased compared to the previous week. The 1 - year yield was 3.7972% (up 17.19bps), the 2 - year yield was 3.9001% (up 18.32bps), the 5 - year yield was 4.0081% (up 15.03bps), and the 10 - year yield was 4.3796% (up 10.29bps) [32] 5. Macro News - The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%, raised inflation and economic growth expectations. The US February PPI exceeded expectations. The US national debt exceeded 39 trillion US dollars. The number of initial jobless claims in the US dropped to the lowest this year [31][33][34] - Central banks in Europe, Japan, the UK, Switzerland, and Sweden maintained interest rates unchanged. The Bank of Canada kept rates steady. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates by 25 basis points to 4.1% [37][38][39] - The risk of attacks on Middle Eastern energy facilities escalated. China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Paris. China's first economic report card for the 15th Five - Year Plan period was released. The Ministry of Finance will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy [41][42][43] - China's central bank will firmly maintain the stable operation of financial markets. China's fiscal revenue and expenditure in January - February had different growth rates. The National Development and Reform Commission launched 13 major foreign - funded projects. The electricity consumption from January - February increased by 6.1% year - on - year [45][47][48] - China's 70 - city housing price data for February showed a narrowing of price declines. Shanghai adjusted the minimum down payment ratio for commercial housing loans [50][51]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis such as the golden ratio line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the trends of various futures contracts on March 23, 2026, and the trends of futures main (continuous) contracts in March 2026. The trends include weak - side oscillations, strong - side oscillations, and wide - range oscillations, and specific resistance and support levels are given for each contract [2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Outlook - **March 23, 2026 Outlook**: Stock index futures (IF2606, IH2606, IC2606, IM2606) are expected to oscillate weakly; ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures (T2606, TL2606) are expected to oscillate weakly; gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and aluminum futures are expected to oscillate weakly; manganese silicon, coking coal, glass, soda ash, crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, liquefied gas, linear low - density polyethylene, polypropylene, styrene, PTA, p - xylene, PVC, methanol, and ethylene glycol futures are expected to oscillate strongly [2][4]. - **March 2026 Outlook**: Stock index futures (IF2606, IH2606, IC2606, IM2606) are expected to oscillate weakly; gold, silver, platinum, palladium, copper, zinc, tin, and lithium carbonate futures are expected to oscillate weakly; aluminum futures are expected to oscillate in a wide range; alumina, iron ore, coking coal, glass, soda ash, crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, linear low - density polyethylene, polypropylene, styrene, PTA, PVC, and methanol futures are expected to oscillate strongly [5]. 2. Macro Information and Trading Tips - **Domestic Macro Information**: The Chinese government leaders made statements on economic development, opening - up, and market order; the LPR remained unchanged; the draft of the Financial Law was soliciting public opinions; central bank leaders expounded on monetary policies; the Ministry of Finance planned to increase investment in people and promote consumption; relevant ministries promoted development in multiple fields such as industry, commerce, and rural areas [7][8][9][10][11]. - **International News**: The US - Iran conflict escalated, affecting the global oil market and financial markets; the US Senate voted against a homeland security department appropriation bill; the Federal Reserve officials had different views on interest rate cuts; Russia's central bank cut the benchmark interest rate; the Middle East conflict might impact global trade [14][15][16][20]. 3. Commodity Futures - related Information - **Policy Adjustments**: Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading instructions and price limits of platinum and palladium futures contracts [21]. - **Market Quotes**: On March 20, oil prices rose due to concerns about supply shortages; international precious metal and base metal futures generally fell; the RMB against the US dollar rose; the US dollar index rose, and non - US currencies mostly fell [21][23][24]. 4. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On March 20, major stock index futures contracts (IF2606, IH2606, IC2606, IM2606) opened slightly higher, then rebounded and fell back, with increased downward pressure [24][25][26]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On March 20, ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures contracts (T2606, TL2606) opened slightly lower, rebounded and fell back, with increased downward pressure [49][53]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: On March 20, gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures contracts showed different trends, generally with increased downward pressure [55][62][68][72]. - **Base Metal Futures**: On March 20, copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, tin, and other base metal futures contracts had different trends, with different degrees of downward or upward pressure [76][80][89][94][100]. - **Other Commodity Futures**: On March 20, manganese silicon, coking coal, glass, soda ash, and other commodity futures contracts showed different trends, and the report also gave future trend expectations [121][123][128][132].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides daily research and analysis on precious metals and base metals futures, including gold, silver, copper, zinc, lead, tin, aluminum, alumina, cast aluminum alloy, platinum, palladium, nickel, and stainless steel. It analyzes the fundamentals, macro and industry news of each metal, and gives the trend strength of each metal [2][4][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price and Market Performance**: The prices of Shanghai gold futures, gold T+D, Comex gold, and London gold spot all declined. For example, the closing price of Shanghai gold 2602 was 1,062.00, with a daily decline of 4.63%, and the night - session closing price was 1026.74, with a decline of 4.99% [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Geopolitical conflicts erupted. Trump limited Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours and threatened to destroy its power plants. The US was planning to seize Iran's "nuclear reserves", and Israel's Dimona was "directly hit" by an Iranian missile [4]. - **Trend Strength**: Gold trend strength is 0 [6]. Silver - **Price and Market Performance**: The prices of Shanghai silver futures, silver T+D, Comex silver, and London silver spot all dropped significantly. For instance, the closing price of Shanghai silver 2602 was 18023, with a daily decline of 9.69%, and the night - session closing price was 17660.00, with a decline of 6.07% [4]. - **Trend Strength**: Silver trend strength is 0 [6]. Copper - **Price and Market Performance**: The price of Shanghai copper futures rose slightly during the day but fell at night, while the price of LME copper declined. The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 94,740, with a daily increase of 0.34%, and the night - session closing price was 93210, with a decline of 1.61% [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US might send thousands of soldiers to the Middle East, and Zambia aimed to triple its copper production by 2031. After a worker death accident, Rio Tinto suspended the operation of its Kennecott copper mine in Utah. China's refined copper production from January to February increased by 9% year - on - year, and the import volume of scrap copper in February decreased [7][9]. - **Trend Strength**: Copper trend strength is - 1 [9]. Zinc - **Price and Market Performance**: The price of Shanghai zinc futures rose slightly, while the price of LME zinc declined. The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22935, with a daily increase of 1.01% [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's Ministry of Finance planned to allocate 250 billion yuan to support the replacement of consumer goods with new ones. Trump limited Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, and Iran threatened to counter - attack [12]. - **Trend Strength**: Zinc trend strength is 0 [13]. Lead - **Price and Market Performance**: The prices of Shanghai lead futures and LME lead both declined. The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16290, with a daily decline of 0.76% [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US might send troops to the Middle East, and China's 3 - month LPR remained unchanged for the tenth consecutive month [15]. - **Trend Strength**: Lead trend strength is 0 [15]. Tin - **Price and Market Performance**: The prices of Shanghai tin futures and LME tin both declined. The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 342,480, with a daily decline of 3.25% [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump limited Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, and China's central bank governor said to maintain liquidity [20]. - **Trend Strength**: Tin trend strength is 0 [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Market Performance**: The prices of Shanghai aluminum futures, LME aluminum, Shanghai alumina futures, and aluminum alloy futures all showed different degrees of decline. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 24020, down 160 from the previous day [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: US military experts analyzed the risks of seizing Iran's Kharg Island, and the global natural gas supply was on the verge of a cliff [23]. - **Trend Strength**: Aluminum trend strength is 0, alumina trend strength is 1, and aluminum alloy trend strength is 0 [23]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price and Market Performance**: The prices of platinum and palladium futures and spot showed different degrees of decline. For example, the closing price of platinum futures 2606 was 509.75, with a daily increase of 0.55%, while the price of New York platinum main - continuous (previous day) was 1920.10, with a decline of 2.48% [25]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Middle East situation caused an Indian "gas shortage", and there was an oil shortage in some parts of Australia [27]. - **Trend Strength**: Platinum trend strength is - 2, and palladium trend strength is - 2 [28]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Market Performance**: The prices of Shanghai nickel futures and stainless steel futures showed different trends. The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 133,160, and the closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 14,065 [30]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia planned to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore, and some nickel mines in different regions had production - related events such as production cuts, suspensions, and sanctions [30][31][34]. - **Trend Strength**: Nickel trend strength is 0, and stainless steel trend strength is 0 [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives trend intensities for various commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment. For example, aluminum, zinc, lead, tin, nickel, stainless steel, carbon lithium, rubber,烧碱, short - fiber, bottle - chip, double - offset paper, pure benzene, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, PVC, egg, peanut have a trend intensity of 0 (neutral); alumina, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PP, paper pulp, glass, methanol, soda ash, LPG, propylene, palm oil, soybean oil, sugar, container shipping index (European line) have a trend intensity of 1 (positive); platinum, palladium, and live pig have a trend intensity of - 2 (negative); and egg has a trend intensity of - 1 (negative)[5][12][15][18][31][39][71][82][100][103][124][121][169][176][24][75][79][87][92][95][111][113][150][161][126][27][29][172][174] 2. Report's Core View - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures, including their current market conditions, price trends, and influencing factors. Geopolitical conflicts, especially the situation in the Middle East, have a significant impact on many commodities, such as energy - related products like crude oil, LPG, and fuel oil, as well as chemical products like PX, PTA, and MEG. Supply - demand relationships, production capacity changes, and policy factors also play important roles in determining commodity prices[5][8][13][64][119][136] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflicts have broken out. The prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot have declined, and trading volume and positions have changed. The trend intensity is 0 [5] - **Silver**: It has fallen from the shock platform. Prices have dropped significantly, and trading volume and positions have changed. The trend intensity is 0 [5] - **Platinum**: It is necessary to be vigilant against selling pressure. The prices of futures and spot have declined, and ETF positions have decreased. The trend intensity is - 2 [26][27][29] - **Palladium**: It remains pessimistic. The prices of futures and spot have declined, and ETF positions have decreased. The trend intensity is - 2 [26][27][29] 3.2 Base Metals - **Copper**: The strong US dollar puts pressure on prices. The prices of domestic and international copper futures have fluctuated, and inventory and trading volume have changed. The trend intensity is - 1 [8] - **Zinc**: It is in the process of bottom - grinding. The prices of domestic and international zinc futures have fluctuated, and inventory and trading volume have changed. The trend intensity is 0 [12] - **Lead**: The decrease in inventory limits the price decline. The prices of domestic and international lead futures have declined slightly, and inventory has decreased. The trend intensity is 0 [15] - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment. The prices of domestic and international tin futures have declined, and inventory has decreased. The trend intensity is 0 [18][19] - **Aluminum**: It faces negative macro - impacts. The prices of domestic and international aluminum futures have declined, and inventory and trading volume have changed. The trend intensity of aluminum is 0, alumina is 1, and aluminum alloy is 0 [22][24] - **Nickel**: There are contradictions between macro - factors and the mining end, and the short - term long - short game has intensified. The prices of domestic and international nickel futures have fluctuated, and inventory and production capacity have changed. The trend intensity is 0 [31] - **Stainless Steel**: Overseas macro - factors suppress it, while real - world costs provide support. The prices of stainless - steel futures have fluctuated, and inventory and production capacity have changed. The trend intensity is 0 [31] 3.3 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil - related Products**: Although not specifically mentioned in detail, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East affects the prices of related products. For example, the supply of LPG is extremely tight, and its price is strongly rising; the price of fuel oil is in a narrow - range shock and remains high in the short - term; the price of low - sulfur fuel oil has weakened slightly [113][124] - **Chemical Products**: PX and PTA are in a short - term shock market and are still bullish in the medium - term; MEG has a tight supply and a bullish medium - term trend; rubber is in a wide - range shock; synthetic rubber is running strongly; LLDPE has a shrinking cracking supply and poor cost transmission; PP has limited supply, good export prospects, and an open risk - free window for futures and cash; caustic soda is in a wide - range shock; paper pulp is in a shock - upward trend; glass has stable raw - sheet prices; methanol is running strongly; urea is in a shock with support; styrene is in a high - level shock; soda ash has little change in the spot market [64][71][75][79][82][87][92][95][100][106][109] 3.4 Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Palm oil is affected by oil - price fluctuations and is in a high - level shock; soybean oil has limited upward space due to weak soybean - series drivers; soybean meal is likely to be in a shock after the overnight decline of US soybeans; soybean is likely to be in a shock with stable market sentiment; corn is in a shock; sugar is rising in a shock with the continuous increase of raw sugar; cotton is affected by external markets; eggs are in a weak shock; live pigs are facing increasing near - end pressure due to the approaching weight - reduction drive; peanuts are affected by macro - factors [150][154][157][161][165][169][172][176]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Positive Outlook**: Iron ore, LLDPE, PP, benzene, soda ash, styrene, sugar, container shipping index (European line) [47][83][109][115][130][142][159] - **Negative Outlook**: Platinum, palladium, lithium carbonate, polysilicon, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, palm oil, soybean oil, eggs, live pigs [26][40][44][120][150][167][171] - **Neutral Outlook**: Gold, silver, copper, zinc, lead, tin, aluminum, alumina, cast aluminum alloy, nickel, stainless steel, industrial silicon, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, log, p - xylene, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, caustic soda, pulp, glass, methanol, urea, short - fiber, bottle chips, offset printing paper, peanuts [6][9][12][15][18][22][24][28][36][41][49][53][56][61][64][68][73][76][84][89][96][99][105][132][135][173] Core Views The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodities in the futures market. Geopolitical conflicts, especially the situation in the Middle East, have a significant impact on the prices of commodities such as energy and metals. For example, the conflict affects the supply of oil and gas, leading to price fluctuations in related products. At the same time, factors such as inventory changes, production capacity adjustments, and market demand also play important roles in determining commodity prices. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Geopolitical conflicts have led to price fluctuations. Gold prices have declined, and silver has fallen from the shock platform. The prices of both have been affected by factors such as exchange rates and market sentiment [6]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Domestic inventory reduction limits price decline. The production in Zambia is expected to increase, and some mines have suspended operations [9]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals provide support, and the price has stabilized [12]. - **Lead**: Inventory reduction restricts price decline [15]. - **Tin**: After a decline, it has partially recovered [18]. - **Aluminum**: The market is panicked, with significant fluctuations. Alumina is supported by cost, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [22]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Macro - risk preferences put pressure on prices, while contradictions in the ore end limit the downward elasticity. Stainless steel is pressured by fundamentals and the macro - environment, with cost support [28]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: Fuel oil follows the decline of crude oil, and the price remains high in the short term. Low - sulfur fuel oil's upward momentum has slowed, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the external market continues to rise [120]. - **P - Xylene, PTA, and MEG**: P - xylene and PTA are in a short - term shock market, while MEG has a tight supply and a strong medium - term trend [68]. - **Rubber and Synthetic Rubber**: Rubber is in a weak shock state, and synthetic rubber fluctuates widely at a high level [73][76]. - **LLDPE and PP**: LLDPE has a shrinking cracking supply and poor cost transmission. PP has limited supply, good export prospects, and a risk - free window for futures and spot trading [80]. - **Caustic Soda**: The futures price fluctuates widely [84]. - **Paper Pulp**: The price fluctuates widely [89]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable [96]. - **Methanol**: It shows a strong shock trend [99]. - **Urea**: The price fluctuates widely [105]. - **Benzene and Styrene**: They are in a strong shock state [109][139]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change [112]. - **PVC**: The price fluctuates widely [119]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil is at a high level and prone to panic, with a risk of correction. Soybean oil has limited driving factors, and attention should be paid to the Sino - US consultation process [144]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean**: Overnight US soybeans rose slightly, and domestic soybean meal may rebound and fluctuate. The spot price of soybeans in the producing areas follows the adjustment of the futures price, and the futures price may fluctuate [151]. - **Corn**: It runs in a shock state [154]. - **Sugar**: Raw sugar is strengthening, and the price is in a strong shock state [157]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to external market fluctuations [161]. - **Eggs**: The price is in a weak shock state [166]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price has weakened again, and the weight - reduction drive is approaching [169]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the impact of the macro - environment [173]. Others - **Iron Ore**: The near - term contract is stronger than the far - term one, and the 5 - 9 positive spread should continue to be held [45]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The market sentiment is weak, and the prices fluctuate widely [49]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: They fluctuate widely due to sector sentiment resonance and potential weather - related impacts on Australian ore exports [53]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The prices fluctuate widely [56]. - **Thermal Coal**: The port price is strengthening, and market expectations are divided [61]. - **Log**: The cost has increased, and the price fluctuates at a high level [64]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The price fluctuates widely, and attention should be paid to geopolitical sentiment disturbances [122]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chips**: They fluctuate at a high level [132]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is recommended to wait and see [135].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The cost of logs has increased, leading to a rise in prices. The government in 2026 aims to stabilize expectations, adjust the structure, prevent risks, and promote reforms in its work report. The GDP growth target has been adjusted to a more realistic range of 4.5% - 5.0%, and the scale of policy - based financial instruments has been increased. Shanghai has optimized its real estate policies [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of 2605, 2607, and 2609 contracts all showed an upward trend on March 17, 2026, with daily increases of 0.4%, 0.4%, and 0.6% respectively, and weekly increases of 2.7%, 2%, and 2% respectively. The trading volume of the 2605 contract increased by 5.8% daily and 79% weekly, while the 2607 contract decreased by 20.4% daily but increased by 65% weekly, and the 2609 contract decreased by 33.9% daily and 63% weekly. The positions of all three contracts increased, with daily increases of 14.3%, 2.4%, and 2.5% respectively, and weekly increases of 35%, 23%, and 9% respectively [1] - **Spread Data**: The spreads between different contracts also changed. For example, the spread between 2605 - 2607 increased by 50.0% daily and decreased by 73% weekly [1] - **Spot Market Data**: Most of the log and wood square spot prices remained stable, with only a few showing slight changes. For example, the 3 - meter radiation pine wood square in Rizhao decreased by 1.6% daily and weekly, and the 4 - meter radiation pine wood square in Rizhao decreased by 0.8% daily and weekly [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - The 2026 government work report focuses on stabilizing expectations, adjusting the structure, preventing risks, and promoting reforms. The GDP growth target is adjusted from "around 5%" to "4.5% - 5.0%", and the scale of policy - based financial instruments is increased. Shanghai has optimized its real estate policies since February 26, 2026 [3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that 2026 marks the beginning of China's "14th Five-Year Plan," where significant changes in macroeconomic dynamics are expected across four dimensions: supply-demand relationships, foreign trade patterns, price movements, and macro leverage. Identifying and assessing these changes is crucial for optimizing macroeconomic policies and ensuring a solid economic recovery [1][2]. Group 1: Domestic Demand - In 2025, domestic demand showed signs of weakness, with retail sales growth at only 3.7%, the lowest in recent years, and fixed asset investment declining by 3.9%, marking a rare annual negative growth since 1989. However, with a projected 5% growth in per capita disposable income and a stable urban unemployment rate of 5.2%, there is potential for recovery in consumption [4]. - The consumer confidence index reached 89.5 in December 2025, up 3.2 from the end of 2024, indicating a gradual recovery in consumer sentiment. Government initiatives aimed at increasing income and boosting consumption are expected to further support this trend [4]. - Investment demand is anticipated to rebound due to easing local government debt pressures and an increase in government bond issuance, alongside a recovery in infrastructure investment and stabilization in manufacturing investment [4]. Group 2: Export Trade - Export trade growth remained robust at over 5.5% in 2024 and 2025, contributing more than 30% to economic growth. However, in 2026, challenges are expected due to an expanding export base and a slowdown in global economic growth, compounded by ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade policies [6]. - Despite these challenges, the structure of exports is improving, with the share of electromechanical products rising to 58.6% in 2025. New sectors such as cross-border e-commerce and autonomous brand exports are also gaining traction, indicating a transition to a phase of slower growth but enhanced structural quality in exports [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides daily research and analysis on various black commodities futures, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs. Each commodity has its own unique market situation and price trend, with most showing wide fluctuations or a neutral trend intensity [2][4][7][11][14][18][20]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: I2605 closed at 787.5 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan or 0.45%. The open interest increased by 7,004 to 474,969 lots. Spot prices of imported and domestic ores showed minor changes. The basis and spreads also had corresponding fluctuations [4]. - **News**: In 2025, China imported 570,000 tons of iron ore from Iran, accounting for 0.45% of the total annual imports. The 2026 government work report adjusted the GDP growth target and increased the scale of policy-based financial instruments. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel enterprises decreased by 5.69 tons to 227.59 tons. Shanghai optimized its real estate policy [4][5]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1, indicating a relatively strong upward trend [5]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils - **Price and Position Data**: RB2605 closed at 3,115 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan or 0.29%, with a trading volume of 534,162 lots and an open interest of 1,722,422 lots, a decrease of 8,941 lots. HC2605 closed at 3,269 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan or 0.28%, with a trading volume of 278,376 lots and an open interest of 1,265,100 lots, a decrease of 4,576 lots. Spot prices in different regions were mostly stable, and the basis and spreads changed accordingly [7]. - **News**: In February 2026, China's steel imports decreased, while exports increased. The CPI rose by 1.3% year-on-year, and the PPI decreased by 0.9% year-on-year. Steel production, inventory, and apparent consumption data showed different trends. The government emphasized positive macro policies and optimized real estate policies [8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot-rolled coils, indicating a neutral trend [9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Position Data**: Ferrosilicon 2605 closed at 5,884 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan, with a trading volume of 109,672 lots and an open interest of 191,953 lots. Silicomanganese 2605 closed at 6,116 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan, with a trading volume of 168,178 lots and an open interest of 369,306 lots. Spot prices and spreads also had corresponding changes [11]. - **News**: The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions showed different trends. A silicon iron plant in Ulanqab resumed production, and a large steel group in Jiangsu and Hengyang Steel Pipe set new purchase prices [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a neutral trend [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Price and Position Data**: JM2605 closed at 1,144.5 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan or 2.1%, with a trading volume of 679,845 lots and an open interest of 407,283 lots, a decrease of 17,889 lots. J2605 closed at 1,718 yuan/ton, up 37.5 yuan or 2.2%, with a trading volume of 15,503 lots and an open interest of 35,488 lots, a decrease of 510 lots. Spot prices of coking coal and coke were mostly stable, and the basis and spreads changed [14]. - **News**: The CCI metallurgical coal index showed a decline. The coal price in Jinzhong, Shanxi was slightly weak, and the market sentiment was uncertain [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral trend [17]. Thermal Coal - **Price and Position Data**: The prices of thermal coal in different regions showed a downward trend, with the price of Shanxi Datong 5500 kcal coal at 607 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan. The overseas prices were relatively stable [18]. - **News**: The North Port market was weak, with more supply and less demand. The import of coal in January - February 2026 increased year-on-year, and the increase might be mainly driven by land - transported coal [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: -1, indicating a relatively weak downward trend [19]. Logs - **Price and Position Data**: The prices of log futures contracts showed a downward trend, with the 2605 contract closing at 790 yuan/m³, down 0.2%. The trading volume and open interest also changed. Spot prices of different types of logs in different regions were mostly stable [20]. - **News**: The 2026 government work report adjusted the GDP growth target and optimized real estate policies [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market is significantly influenced by the geopolitical conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, with the situation in the Middle East being a key factor affecting various sectors. The conflict has led to disruptions in the supply chain, especially in the energy and shipping industries, and has also impacted market sentiment and risk preferences [89][90][125]. - The macro - economic environment is complex. The Chinese government's policies announced during the Two Sessions have certain impacts on the domestic market, and the market is also affected by factors such as the expected Fed interest rate cuts and employment data in the US [7][11]. - Different industries have different trends. Some industries are facing supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by cost factors and seasonal factors. For example, in the metal industry, some metals face supply - demand mismatches in the short term but have good long - term fundamentals; in the energy and chemical industry, the prices of many products are affected by the rise in oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts [2][16][93]. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Copper**: In the short term, there is a supply - demand mismatch, with high production in March, inventory accumulation, and limited upward price drivers. In the long term, the fundamentals are good, and the price center is expected to rise. Attention should be paid to the CL premium and downstream resumption of work [2][16]. - **Styrene**: The supply increment in March is limited, and the supply - demand is expected to have a slight de - stocking. Driven by the rise in oil prices and export orders, the short - term trend is strong. Attention should be paid to the downstream start - up and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz [3][105]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply and demand are in a tight balance. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand will also improve marginally. The price may fluctuate greatly in the short term, and there is pressure when the price rebounds to the FOB export cost [4][62]. - **Oils and Fats**: Driven by the rise in crude oil, vegetable oils are oscillating upwards. Palm oil and soybean oil have different trends, and the market is affected by factors such as production, exports, and demand [5][80]. Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The macro situation boosts market sentiment, and the stock index oscillates and stabilizes. The market is affected by domestic policies and international geopolitical conflicts. It is recommended to wait and see and keep a low position [6][8]. - **Precious Metals**: Affected by geopolitical conflicts and central bank policies, the prices of precious metals are under pressure. In the long term, the demand for precious metals is expected to increase, but in the short term, it is recommended to wait and see and take protective measures for long positions [9][11]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The short - term supply - demand mismatch, high inventory, and weak upward drivers. The long - term fundamentals are good, and the price center is expected to rise. Attention should be paid to downstream resumption and overseas macro - drivers [13][16]. - **Alumina**: The spot price may rebound slightly, and the inventory is in a state of slight de - stocking. The price is expected to oscillate widely, and it is recommended to sell short at high prices [16][18]. - **Aluminum**: Affected by the supply crisis in the Middle East, the price volatility increases. The short - term market is cautious, and the long - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the price is expected to rise [18][21]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The social inventory is decreasing, and the short - term market oscillates in a range. The key lies in the downstream resumption and order recovery [22][23]. - **Zinc**: The social inventory is accumulating, and the demand is weak in the short term. The fundamentals are good, but the price may be suppressed if the downstream production resumption is not as expected [24][27]. - **Tin**: The market sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the price oscillates widely. The long - term bullish logic exists, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [27][31]. - **Nickel**: The macro uncertainty is high, and the price oscillates in a range. The supply and demand are in a state of weak demand and high inventory [31][34]. - **Stainless Steel**: The policy expectations are gradually released, and the supply - demand is slowly recovering. The price is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term [34][37]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Affected by macro and supply uncertainties, the price oscillates widely. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [38][41]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price is falling, and the futures price rises and then falls. The supply pressure is high, but the demand is expected to recover in March. It is recommended to wait and see [42][43]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillates. The supply and demand are expected to be strong in March, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production and sales [44][46]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The price oscillates, and the demand after the festival needs to be verified. The supply increment in March is limited, and the inventory is accumulating seasonally. Attention should be paid to the export volume and the height of the apparent demand [47][49]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply pressure is prominent, and the demand recovery is uncertain. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [50][51]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price is weak, and the futures price oscillates. The supply is increasing, and the demand is decreasing. The price is affected by multiple factors and is expected to oscillate [52][55]. - **Coke**: The steel mills propose to lower the price, and the futures price oscillates. The supply and demand are basically balanced in the short term, and the price is expected to oscillate [56][59]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the price may fluctuate greatly in the short term. Attention should be paid to exports [60][62]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price of manganese ore is rising, and the supply of manganese silicon is increasing slightly. The price is affected by the cost of manganese ore and the supply - demand of manganese silicon, and it is recommended to try short - term long positions or 5 - 9 positive spreads [63][65]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The domestic and foreign markets oscillate at a high level, and the domestic soybean meal basis falls. The supply is relatively loose, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level [66][68]. - **Pigs**: The supply pressure is high, and the price oscillates weakly. The market focuses on secondary fattening and frozen product storage [69][70]. - **Corn**: Supported by the replenishment of the middle and lower reaches, the price oscillates strongly. Attention should be paid to the selling enthusiasm and policy grain sources [71][73]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price is weak, and the domestic market oscillates at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [74]. - **Cotton**: The price first rises and then falls, and the adjustment range is limited. The long - term center of gravity is expected to rise, and attention should be paid to downstream orders and weather [76][77]. - **Eggs**: The market speed is slow, and the price oscillates at a low level. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is in the off - season [79]. - **Oils and Fats**: Driven by crude oil, the price oscillates upwards. Different oils have different trends, and attention should be paid to production, exports, and demand [80][83]. - **Jujubes**: The demand is weak, and the price oscillates in a range. The market is in the off - season, and attention should be paid to the inventory removal [84][85]. - **Apples**: The inventory removal progress is good, and the price continues to rise. The market is affected by production, quality, and inventory [86][88]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the price rises. The key is the passage of the Strait of Hormuz and the safety of energy facilities in the Middle East. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously and set stop - loss and take - profit [89][91]. - **PX**: The supply - demand is expected to improve, and the price is strong in the short term. It is recommended to take long positions with caution and pay attention to the oil price [92][93]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand drive is limited, and the price is driven by the cost. It is recommended to take long positions with caution and pay attention to the oil price [94][96]. - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price follows the raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the cost transmission [97]. - **Bottle Chip**: The raw material is expected to be strong, and the supply is expected to increase. The processing fee may fall. It is recommended to take long positions and pay attention to the processing fee [98][100]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand is expected to improve in March, and the cost support is enhanced. It is recommended to take a positive spread between EG5 and EG9 [101]. - **Pure Benzene**: Driven by the cost, the price is strong. It is recommended to take long positions with caution and pay attention to the oil price [102][103]. - **Styrene**: Driven by the cost, the price is strong. It is recommended to take long positions with caution and pay attention to the downstream start - up and the Strait of Hormuz [3][105]. - **LLDPE**: The upstream sells at a loss, and the market transaction weakens. The supply may shrink in the future, and the demand is warming up. It is recommended to wait and see [106]. - **PP**: The valuation is low, and the price rises strongly. The supply may decrease, and the demand is recovering. It is recommended to take profits on the PL spread [107]. - **Methanol**: Affected by geopolitical risks, the price oscillates at a high level. The supply is affected by imports, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to hold long positions [108]. - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by geopolitical disturbances, the price hits the daily limit. The supply is increasing, and the demand is stable. It is necessary to be vigilant against the price decline when the situation eases [109][110]. - **PVC**: Affected by geopolitical disturbances, the price fluctuates emotionally. The supply is high, and the demand is normal. The price is pushed up by cost concerns [111][112]. - **Urea**: The demand improves marginally, and the price consolidates at a high level. The supply pressure is high, and the demand is recovering. It is recommended to stop losses on short positions and take long positions [113]. - **Soda Ash**: The macro situation boosts the sentiment, but the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see [114][117]. - **Glass**: The downstream resumption is less than expected, and the inventory increases. It is recommended to wait and see or short at high prices [114][118]. - **Natural Rubber**: Affected by the overseas geopolitical situation, the price oscillates in the short term. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is affected by exports [118][122]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The fundamental support is limited, but the geopolitical conflict drives the BR to rise in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [122][124]. Container Shipping to Europe - The shipping price increases, and it is necessary to pay attention to the actual implementation of the price increase in the off - season. The market is affected by geopolitical conflicts and shipping capacity. It is recommended to hold positive spreads [124][125].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The "Government Work Report" sets this year's main development targets: GDP growth of 4.5% - 5%, urban surveyed unemployment rate around 5.5%, over 12 million new urban jobs, CPI increase around 2%, coordinated growth of residents' income and economy, basic balance of international payments, grain output around 1.4 trillion catties, and a 3.8% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP [2][17]. - Fiscal policy remains active with a deficit - to - GDP ratio of about 4%, a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, and plans to issue special bonds and local government special bonds to support various projects and economic development [18]. - Monetary policy is moderately loose, aiming to promote economic growth and price stability, using tools like reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and optimizing structural monetary policy tools [19]. - The "15th Five - Year Plan" draft outlines 20 major indicators in different aspects such as economic development, innovation, people's well - being, green development, and security [3][20]. - The ongoing Middle East conflict has affected energy markets, causing supply concerns and price fluctuations in oil and natural gas [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - GDP in Q4 2025 grew at a 4.5% year - on - year rate, down from 4.8% in the previous quarter and 5.4% in the same period last year [1]. - In February 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down from 49.2% in the previous month and 50.2% in the same period last year; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 49.5%, unchanged from the previous month but down from 50.4% last year [1]. - In January 2026, social financing reached 7.2208 trillion yuan, up from 817.8 billion yuan in the previous month and 7.0546 trillion yuan last year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - Zhengshang Institute announced trading rules for the动力煤期货 2703 contract: 50% margin, 10% daily limit, and a maximum of 20 open positions per day for non - futures companies and clients [4]. - SHFE adjusted trading rules for fuel oil futures contracts, including changes in daily limit and margin ratios [5]. - In February, the national futures market's trading volume decreased by 10.6% year - on - year, while the turnover increased by 7.82% year - on - year; from January to February, the cumulative trading volume increased by 26.91% and the turnover by 55.18% year - on - year [6]. 3.2.2 Metals - Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates recommends a 5% - 15% allocation of gold in personal investment portfolios to diversify risks [7]. - CME lowered the initial margin for COMEX 100 gold futures from 9% to 7% and for COMEX 5000 silver futures from 18% to 14% [8]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - G7 and its allies are negotiating a critical minerals trade agreement to reduce dependence on Chinese resources and strengthen their supply chains [9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The Middle East conflict has led to supply concerns, with Japanese refineries requesting the use of national oil reserves [10]. - European natural gas prices rose due to supply disruptions in Qatar, with the benchmark Dutch TTF natural gas futures up 10.5% to 53.87 euros per MWh, a 90% increase since the start of the year [11]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - As of late February, the prices of cotton, soybeans, and corn in the circulation field increased, reaching new highs in recent periods [14]. 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On March 5, the central bank conducted 23 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 297.5 billion yuan [16]. - On March 6, the central bank plans to conduct 800 billion yuan of 3 - month (91 - day) outright reverse repurchase operations, leading to a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan in 3 - month outright reverse repurchase [16]. 3.3.2 Key News - The "Government Work Report" proposes measures in fiscal, monetary policies, and debt risk resolution [17][18][19]. - The "15th Five - Year Plan" draft includes 20 major indicators and 109 major projects in six aspects [3][20]. 3.3.3 Bond Market - The inter - bank bond market was weak, with bond yields rising slightly, and treasury bond futures falling [25]. - Various bond indices and individual bonds showed different price movements, and money market rates mostly rose [25][26]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - On March 5, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.9003, up 117 points, and the night - session closed at 6.9125, down 174 points [30]. - The US dollar index rose 0.24% to 99.04, and most non - US currencies fell [30]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that the GDP growth target of 4.5% - 5.0% is in line with expectations, and policies in various fields will maintain their trends [31]. - Huatai Fixed - Income suggests seizing trading opportunities in the bond market with a safety margin [31]. 3.4 Stock Market - A - shares rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.64%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.23%, the ChiNext Index up 1.66%, and over 4000 stocks rising [35]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.28%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell [35].