如果你是投资新手，面对美联储的议息会议、央行的公开市场操作，感觉自己像在听一门高深的量子物理学，那么恭喜你，你找对地方了。今天，我将用最 直白的方式，教你如何借助人工智能（AI）这把"降维打击"的利器，彻底摆脱宏观信息的焦虑，实现小白在股市的逆袭生存。 一、宏观经济："天书"与股市的残酷联系 首先，我们必须承认一个事实：宏观经济政策是股市的"地心引力"和"推土机"。 它的力量是系统性的、不可抗拒的。但对于小白来说，理解这些名词的复杂机制，确实是极大的门槛。 1. 核心概念速查（小白翻译版） | 经济名 | 机构 | 宏观作用(小白翻译) | 股市影响 (核心逻辑) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 词 | | | | | | 加息/ | 美联储/ | 加息: 借钱成本变高。 降息: 借 | 加息: 资金回流银行,市场流动性收 | | | 降息 | 各国央 | 钱成本变低。 | 下跌压力增大。降息:资金流入市场 | | | | 行 | | 松 → 股市上涨动力增强。 | | | 缩表/ | 美联储/ | 缩表: 央行卖出债券,回收现 | 缩表: 比加息更强力的"抽水机" ...

Core Viewpoint - The economic data for October shows a decline in growth rates compared to September, driven by weak demand and the fading effects of seasonal factors, indicating an increasing necessity for policy support [2][3]. Macroeconomic Analysis - The industrial value-added growth rate fell to 4.9% year-on-year in October, down from 6.5% in September, reflecting both the end of seasonal effects and a drop in demand [4]. - The export delivery value turned negative with a year-on-year decline of 2.1% in October, influenced by weak domestic demand and competitive pressures in certain industries [4]. - Fixed asset investment saw an expanded decline, with a cumulative year-on-year drop of 1.7% from January to October, worsening from a 0.5% decline in the first nine months [5][7]. Consumer Behavior - Retail sales in October grew by 2.9% year-on-year, a slight decrease from the previous month, with the "trade-in" consumption segment experiencing a significant slowdown, particularly in appliances and automobiles [5][13]. - The restaurant sector showed signs of recovery, with a growth rate of 3.8% in October, likely boosted by holiday spending [5][13]. - The overall consumer sentiment remains cautious, with high base effects from last year impacting growth rates [13][45]. Real Estate Market - The real estate market exhibited a simultaneous decline in both volume and price, with new housing sales dropping by 18.8% and sales revenue decreasing by 24.3% year-on-year in October [6][15]. - The funding sources for real estate development also weakened, with a year-on-year decline of 22.0% in October, reflecting reduced sales returns [15]. - The investment in real estate development further declined, with a year-on-year drop of 23.0% in October, indicating a lack of recovery momentum in the sector [15][17]. Infrastructure and Manufacturing Investment - Infrastructure investment growth slowed to 1.5% year-on-year from January to October, with a significant drop of 12.1% in October alone [7]. - Manufacturing investment growth also decreased, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of only 2.7% from January to October, down from 4.0% in the previous period [7][8]. - The overall fixed asset investment saw a monthly decline of 11% in October, exacerbated by weak demand and slow funding support [11][17]. Financial Sector Insights - The financial data for October indicated a continued decline in credit growth, with new loans decreasing by 0.2 trillion yuan year-on-year [27]. - The M1 and M2 money supply growth rates showed signs of slowing, reflecting a trend of deposit migration and reduced lending activity [27][28]. - The banking sector remains stable, with expectations for policy measures to support credit demand in the coming months [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated higher, with domestic refined copper imports remaining at a loss. The Fed Chairman has cooled the market's expectations of a December interest - rate cut, indicating growing internal differences within the Fed. The US House of Representatives will vote on a bill to end the government shutdown. Domestically, the central bank emphasizes the balance of multiple relationships in its monetary policy. LME copper inventories are stable, while Comex, SHFE, and BC copper inventories have increased. Downstream demand is restricted by high - price concerns. LME is seeking opinions on new permanent rules. With the boost from precious metals and the cautious optimism of the equity market, copper may be short - term bullish but will likely remain in a high - level oscillation in the off - season. Attention should be paid to overseas financial markets and domestic inventories [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina fluctuated weakly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. Alumina prices have declined, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots has narrowed. Alumina plant profits are compressed, with occasional production cuts in loss - making capacities. Alumina inventories are increasing. The internal and external market situations are different. The electrolytic aluminum market is influenced by both long and short factors and will continue to adjust at a high level in the short term. Attention should be paid to the potential for market recovery due to northern heating season production restrictions and the long - AD spread after the spread narrows [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, nickel prices declined slightly. LME and SHFE nickel inventories decreased. The nickel - iron to stainless - steel industry chain shows weakening raw material support and rising stainless - steel inventories. In the new - energy industry chain, the discount coefficient has risen slightly, but the output of ternary precursors in November has decreased. With increasing inventory pressure, nickel prices may oscillate, and inventory changes should be monitored [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight price increase, import loss, complex macro - situation, inventory changes, demand constraints, policy impact, and short - term and long - term market trends [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight price fluctuations, price and discount changes in the spot market, profit compression and production cuts in alumina plants, inventory pressure, internal - external market differences, and short - term market adjustment [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight price decline, inventory reduction, weakening support in the nickel - iron to stainless - steel chain, mixed situation in the new - energy chain, inventory pressure, and oscillating price trend [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Price changes in the market, inventory changes in multiple locations (LME, Comex, SHFE, etc.), and changes in other indicators such as LME0 - 3 premium and import profit and loss [1][3]. - **Lead**: Price changes in the average price, premium and discount, and other aspects, as well as inventory and import profit - and - loss changes [3]. - **Aluminum**: Price changes in different regions, inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventories, and changes in premium and discount and import profit and loss [4]. - **Nickel**: Price changes in different nickel products, inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventories, and changes in premium and discount and import profit and loss [2][4]. - **Zinc**: Price changes in the market, TC stability, inventory changes in LME and SHFE, and changes in premium and discount and import profit and loss [6]. - **Tin**: Price changes in the market, inventory changes in LME and SHFE, and changes in premium and discount and import profit and loss [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium and Discount**: Charts show the spot premium and discount trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][10][15]. - **SHFE Near - to - Far - Month Spread**: Charts present the near - to - far - month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [16][21][23]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts display the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [24][26][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [31][33][35]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts present the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series products from 2019 - 2025 [37][39][41]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [43][45][47]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience and professional titles in the field of non - ferrous metals research, and are responsible for different research directions such as precious metals, aluminum - silicon, and lithium - nickel [50][51].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are long - term bullish with a strategy of buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade in a range [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are for range trading; Glass is recommended for selling call options [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is for taking profits on long positions at high levels or range short - term trading; Aluminum is suggested to buy on dips; Nickel is for waiting and watching or shorting on rallies; Tin, gold, and silver are for range trading [1][10][11][18] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to trade in a range; Soda ash 01 contract is for a short - selling strategy [1][21][23][24][30][32] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade in a range; PTA is in low - level oscillation; Apples are expected to be slightly bullish; Jujubes are expected to be slightly bearish [1][33][34][35] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs are facing resistance in rebound; Eggs have limited upside; Corn is in a bottom - building phase; Soybean meal is in range oscillation; Oils are in a bottom - building and rebounding phase [1][37][39][41][43][45] Core Views - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. Some sectors are affected by policy, supply - demand, and international factors. For example, the macro - financial sector is influenced by domestic policies and global risk preferences; the non - ferrous metals sector is affected by international trade and supply - demand fundamentals; the agricultural and livestock sector is related to production capacity, consumption seasons, and policies [5][10][37] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: A - share market is in oscillation. Global risk preference and domestic policies fail to boost market sentiment. The market lacks a clear main line, so index futures may oscillate. Long - term bullish with a strategy of buying on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The third - quarter monetary policy report maintains a moderately loose tone. The possibility of using total - volume monetary policy tools this year is limited. The bond market is in a range - trading phase, waiting for policy signals from the December Central Economic Work Conference [5] Black Building Materials - **Double - Coking**: The coal market has tight supply - demand and rising prices. Supply is restricted by mine shutdowns, and demand is improving. It is expected to trade in a range [7] - **Rebar**: The futures price is in narrow - range oscillation. The market is affected by macro - policies and supply - demand fundamentals. The price has limited downside due to low valuation [7] - **Glass**: Production cuts are implemented. Supply is reduced, but demand is weak. The inventory is relatively high, and there is delivery pressure. It is recommended to sell call options [8] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price hits a record high and then falls. It is affected by trade, supply, and interest - rate policies. The supply is tightening, but the demand is suppressed by high prices. It is expected to trade in a high - level range [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The bauxite supply is expected to improve. The production capacity and inventory are changing. The market is over - trading some expectations. It is recommended to strengthen observation [10][11] - **Nickel**: The new RKAB policy brings uncertainty. The supply is expected to be loose in the long - term. It is recommended to wait and watch or short on rallies [16] - **Tin**: The production is changing, and the supply is expected to improve. The downstream consumption is weak. It is recommended for range trading [18] - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by the US government shutdown, employment, and interest - rate policies, they are in oscillation. They are supported by interest - rate cut expectations and risk - aversion demand. It is recommended for range trading [18][20] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is under pressure, supply is high, and demand is weak. The export growth sustainability is questionable. It is expected to be slightly bearish in oscillation [22] - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by alumina production and inventory, the valuation is under pressure. It is expected to be slightly bearish in oscillation [24] - **Styrene**: The cost and supply - demand fundamentals are weak. It is expected to be slightly bearish in oscillation [25][26] - **Rubber**: The market lacks a clear driving force. The inventory and production capacity utilization are changing. It is expected to trade in a range [26] - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is spreading. The price is expected to oscillate, and the rebound sustainability needs attention [27][28] - **Methanol**: The supply is recovering, and the demand is weak. The inventory is increasing. It is expected to trade in a range [28] - **Polyolefins**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand improvement is limited. It is expected to be bearish in oscillation [30] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is in surplus, and the demand is weak. The 01 contract is for a short - selling strategy [32] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation is changing. The seed - cotton price is high, and trade negotiations are progressing. It is expected to trade in a range [33] - **PTA**: The oil price is affecting, and the supply - demand is in a state of inventory accumulation. It is in low - level oscillation [34] - **Apples**: The ground trading is ending, and the出库 is starting. The production and quality are declining. It is expected to be slightly bullish [34] - **Jujubes**: The acquisition price is changing, and the market sentiment is weak. It is expected to be slightly bearish [36] Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: The short - term price is in narrow - range oscillation. The long - term supply is high, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to arbitrage [37][38][39] - **Eggs**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is stable. The price increase is limited. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 12 - contract and trade in a range for the 01 - contract [39][40] - **Corn**: The short - term supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The long - term cost has support. It is in a bottom - building phase [41][42] - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by US policies and Brazilian planting, it is in range oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the 3000 - yuan support level [43][44] - **Oils**: Different oils have different supply - demand situations. They are expected to bottom - build and rebound in the short - term and trade in a wide range in the long - term [45][49]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis using tools like the golden ratio line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the likely trends of various futures contracts on November 12, 2025. Specifically, stock index futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate; gold, silver, copper, aluminum, rebar, iron ore, PTA, PVC, and methanol futures are likely to oscillate strongly; ten - year and thirty - year Treasury bond futures, and polysilicon and lithium carbonate futures are expected to have wide - range oscillations; crude oil futures are likely to oscillate with an upward bias; while coking coal, glass, and soda ash futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate [2][3][4][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro News and Trading Tips - The US will suspend the implementation of the export control penetration rule from November 10, 2025, to November 9, 2026. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded that this is an important measure for the US to implement the consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur [8]. - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, emphasizing the importance of observing the total financial volume through indicators such as social financing scale and money supply [8]. - Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao held a video meeting with the German Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action, discussing Sino - German and Sino - European economic and trade issues and emphasizing the role of the Dutch government in the ASM International issue [8]. - The Mexican government postponed the increase of tariffs on Chinese goods, and the EU considered forcing member states to remove Huawei and ZTE equipment. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs urged the EU to provide a fair business environment for Chinese enterprises [9]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will implement a service industry capacity expansion and quality improvement action [9]. - The US Senate passed the Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act, and the House of Representatives plans to vote on the temporary appropriation bill [9]. - US President Trump mentioned the potential economic and national security disasters if the Supreme Court rejects his use of emergency powers to impose tariffs, and he is close to reaching a trade agreement with India and reducing tariffs on Indian goods. Switzerland is also close to having its tariffs reduced to 15% by the US [10]. - The US "small non - farm" data showed a significant decrease in private - sector employment, and the optimism index of small businesses in the US dropped to a six - month low [10]. - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and the Dalian Commodity Exchange had leadership changes [10]. - On November 11, US and Brent crude oil futures prices rose due to new US sanctions on Russian oil and the expected end of the US government shutdown [11]. - On November 11, international precious metal futures generally rose, with factors such as the expected Fed rate cut and geopolitical risks supporting prices [11]. - On November 11, most London base metals closed higher, while the US dollar index fell, and the on - shore and offshore RMB against the US dollar also showed different trends [12][13]. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast Stock Index Futures - On November 11, major stock index futures contracts such as IF2512, IH2512, IC2512, and IM2512 all showed a pattern of opening higher, then falling back and oscillating downward, with weakened short - term rebound momentum and increased downward pressure [13][14][15]. - It is expected that in November 2025, major stock index futures contracts will have wide - range oscillations. On November 12, they are likely to oscillate and consolidate, with specific resistance and support levels provided [18][19]. Treasury Bond Futures - On November 11, the ten - year Treasury bond futures contract T2512 opened higher, then fell back and oscillated downward, with weakened short - term rebound momentum and slightly increased downward pressure. The central bank conducted 4038 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 2863 billion yuan [35]. - It is expected that on November 12, the ten - year Treasury bond futures contract T2512 will have a wide - range oscillation, and the thirty - year Treasury bond futures contract TL2512 will also have a wide - range oscillation, with specific resistance and support levels provided [36][39]. Precious Metal Futures - On November 11, the gold futures contract AU2512 and the silver futures contract AG2512 both opened higher, then oscillated upward. It is expected that in November 2025, they will have strong wide - range oscillations, and on November 12, they will oscillate strongly, with specific resistance and support levels provided [40][48][49]. Base Metal Futures - On November 11, copper, aluminum, and alumina futures contracts showed different trends. It is expected that in November 2025, they will have wide - range oscillations, and on November 12, they will oscillate strongly, with specific resistance and support levels provided [50][57][60]. Other Commodity Futures - On November 11, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, glass, soda ash, crude oil, PTA, PVC, and methanol futures contracts all showed different trends. It is expected that on November 12, they will have different trends such as wide - range oscillations, strong oscillations, or oscillatory consolidation, with specific resistance and support levels provided [63][65][70][75][77][84][86][90][92][95][100][102][105].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures on November 6, 2025. Index futures, gold, silver, copper, aluminum, and some other futures are expected to have a strong - side oscillation; crude oil, PTA, PVC, and methanol futures are expected to have a weak - side oscillation; some futures such as alumina, rebar, and hot - rolled coil are expected to oscillate and consolidate [2][3][4][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Outlook Highlights - Index futures are expected to have a strong - side oscillation. IF2512 has resistance levels at 4637 and 4653 points, and support levels at 4572 and 4536 points; IH2512 has resistance levels at 3030 and 3040 points, and support levels at 2992 and 2976 points; IC2512 has resistance levels at 7160 and 7210 points, and support levels at 7049 and 7000 points; IM2512 has resistance levels at 7365 and 7419 points, and support levels at 7257 and 7195 points [2]. - The ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract T2512 is likely to have a wide - range oscillation, with resistance levels at 108.80 and 108.85 yuan, and support levels at 108.58 and 108.53 yuan. The thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 is likely to have a wide - range oscillation, with resistance levels at 116.8 and 117.2 yuan, and support levels at 116.1 and 116.0 yuan [2]. - Gold futures main contract AU2512 is likely to have a strong - side oscillation and will attack the resistance levels of 921.9 and 927.3 yuan/gram, with support levels at 908.0 and 900.4 yuan/gram [2]. - Silver futures main contract AG2512 is likely to have a strong - side oscillation and will attack the resistance levels of 11455 and 11483 yuan/kg, with support levels at 11210 and 11103 yuan/kg [3]. - Copper futures main contract CU2512 is likely to have a strong - side oscillation, with resistance levels at 86100 and 86600 yuan/ton, and support levels at 85300 and 85000 yuan/ton [3]. - Aluminum futures main contract AL2512 is likely to have a strong - side oscillation and will attack the resistance levels of 21500 and 21600 yuan/ton, with support levels at 21310 and 21260 yuan/ton [3]. - Alumina futures main contract AO2601 is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with support levels at 2752 and 2740 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 2789 and 2816 yuan/ton [4]. - Rebar futures main contract RB2601 is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with support levels at 3009 and 2990 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 3046 and 3068 yuan/ton [4]. - Hot - rolled coil futures main contract HC2601 is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with support levels at 3229 and 3194 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 3264 and 3292 yuan/ton [4]. - Iron ore futures main contract I2601 is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with support levels at 767 and 762 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 778 and 783 yuan/ton [4]. - Coking coal futures main contract JM2601 is likely to have a strong - side oscillation and will attack the resistance levels of 1267 and 1280 yuan/ton, with support levels at 1250 and 1240 yuan/ton [4]. - Glass futures main contract FG601 is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with resistance levels at 1112 and 1127 yuan/ton, and support levels at 1091 and 1072 yuan/ton [4]. - Soda ash futures main contract SA601 is likely to have a strong - side oscillation and will attack the resistance levels of 1209 and 1215 yuan/ton, with support levels at 1186 and 1175 yuan/ton [4]. - Crude oil futures main contract SC2512 is likely to have a weak - side oscillation and will test the support levels of 455 and 452 yuan/barrel, with resistance levels at 468 and 471 yuan/barrel [5]. - PTA futures main contract TA601 is likely to have a weak - side oscillation and will test the support levels of 4554 and 4520 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 4610 and 4624 yuan/ton [5]. - PVC futures main contract V2601 is likely to have a weak - side oscillation and will test the support levels of 4600 and 4560 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 4654 and 4662 yuan/ton [5]. - Methanol futures main contract MA601 is likely to have a weak - side oscillation and will test the support levels of 2100 and 2080 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 2141 and 2150 yuan/ton [5]. - Soybean meal futures main contract M2601 is likely to have a strong - side oscillation and will attack the resistance levels of 3094 and 3125 yuan/ton, with support levels at 3060 and 3046 yuan/ton [7]. Macro News and Trading Tips - Premier Li Qiang of the State Council attended the opening ceremony of the 8th China International Import Expo and delivered a keynote speech, stating that China will focus on high - quality development and promote high - level opening - up [7]. - China announced specific measures to implement the consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, including measures related to tariffs and export controls [7]. - The US Supreme Court debated the legality of Trump's large - scale reciprocal tariffs, and many conservative justices questioned its legality [9]. - The US federal government's "shutdown" has reached 36 days, which may reduce the Q4 economic growth rate by up to 2 percentage points [9]. - The EU climate ministers reached an agreement on the 2040 climate change target, aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 90% [10]. - The eurozone's October service PMI was 53%, pushing the composite PMI to a new high since May 2023 [10]. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook Index Futures - On November 5, the main contracts of index futures showed different trends. IF2512 had a slight increase, IH2512 had a slight decrease, IC2512 had a slight increase, and IM2512 had a slight increase. The A - share market had a slight increase, while the Hong Kong stock market had a slight decrease, and the US and European stock markets had increases [12][13][14][15][16]. - It is expected that in November 2025, the main contracts of index futures IF, IH, IC, and IM will likely have a wide - range oscillation [16][17]. - On November 6, index futures are expected to have a strong - side oscillation [17]. Treasury Bond Futures - Ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract T2512 on November 5 had a slight decrease, with resistance at 108.80 yuan and support at 108.58 yuan. It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation on November 6 [34][35]. - Thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 on November 5 had a 0.08% decrease, with resistance at 117.0 yuan and support at 116.34 yuan. It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation on November 6 [37][38]. Gold Futures - Gold futures main contract AU2512 on November 5 had a 0.77% decrease, with resistance at 920.0 yuan/gram and support at 901.38 yuan/gram. It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in November 2025 and a strong - side oscillation on November 6 [41]. Silver Futures - Silver futures main contract AG2512 on November 5 had a 0.73% decrease, with resistance at 11351 yuan/kg and support at 11038 yuan/kg. It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in November 2025 and a strong - side oscillation on November 6 [46][47]. Copper Futures - Copper futures main contract CU2512 on November 5 had a 0.88% decrease, with resistance at 86000 yuan/ton and support at 85000 yuan/ton. It is expected to have a strong - side wide - range oscillation in November 2025 and a strong - side oscillation on November 6 [51]. Aluminum Futures - Aluminum futures main contract AL2512 on November 5 had a 0.40% decrease, with resistance at 21465 yuan/ton and support at 21200 yuan/ton. It is expected to have a strong - side wide - range oscillation in November 2025 and a strong - side oscillation on November 6 [55][56]. Alumina Futures - Alumina futures main contract AO2601 on November 5 had a 0.11% decrease, with resistance at 2780 yuan/ton and support at 2750 yuan/ton. It is expected to have a weak - side wide - range oscillation in November 2025 and oscillate and consolidate on November 6 [60]. Rebar Futures - Rebar futures main contract RB2601 on November 5 had a 1.21% decrease, with resistance at 3046 yuan/ton and support at 3000 yuan/ton. It is expected to have a strong - side wide - range oscillation in November 2025 and oscillate and consolidate on November 6 [65]. Hot - rolled Coil Futures - Hot - rolled coil futures main contract HC2601 on November 5 had a 0.85% decrease, with resistance at 3265 yuan/ton and support at 3229 yuan/ton. It is expected to oscillate and consolidate on November 6 [69]. Iron Ore Futures - Iron ore futures main contract I2601 on November 5 had a 0.26% decrease, with resistance at 778 yuan/ton and support at 767 yuan/ton. It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in November 2025 and oscillate and consolidate on November 6 [73]. Coking Coal Futures - Coking coal futures main contract JM2601 on November 5 had a 0.47% decrease, with resistance at 1277 yuan/ton and support at 1242 yuan/ton. It is expected to have a strong - side wide - range oscillation in November 2025 and a strong - side oscillation on November 6 [78]. Glass Futures - Glass futures main contract FG601 on November 5 had a 0.54% decrease, with resistance at 1126 yuan/ton and support at 1088 yuan/ton. It is expected to have a weak - side wide - range oscillation in November 2025 and oscillate and consolidate on November 6 [81]. Soda Ash Futures - Soda ash futures main contract SA601 on November 5 had a 0.08% increase, with resistance at 1202 yuan/ton and support at 1186 yuan/ton. It is expected to have a weak - side wide - range oscillation in November 2025 and a strong - side oscillation on November 6 [87][88]. Crude Oil Futures - Crude oil futures main contract SC2512 on November 5 had a 0.37% decrease, with resistance at 466.1 yuan/barrel and support at 458.9 yuan/barrel. It is expected to have a weak - side oscillation in November 2025 and a weak - side oscillation on November 6 [92]. PTA Futures - PTA futures main contract TA601 on November 5 had a 0.09% increase, with resistance at 4620 yuan/ton and support at 4554 yuan/ton. It is expected to have a weak - side oscillation on November 6 [97]. PVC Futures - PVC futures main contract V2601 on November 5 had a 0.77% decrease, with resistance at 4670 yuan/ton and support at 4620 yuan/ton. It is expected to have a weak - side oscillation on November 6 [99]. Methanol Futures - Methanol futures main contract MA601 on November 5 had a 0.94% increase, with resistance at 2150 yuan/ton and support at 2080 yuan/ton. It is expected to have a weak - side oscillation on November 6 [101]. Soybean Meal Futures - Soybean meal futures main contract M2601 on November 5 had a 1.49% increase, with resistance at 3088 yuan/ton and support at 3000 yuan/ton. It is expected to have a strong - side oscillation on November 6 [102].

Core Insights - The report from China Galaxy Securities highlights significant positive signals from China's macroeconomic policy deployment and external relations this week [1] - The release of the "14th Five-Year Plan" draft provides crucial guidance for economic work over the next five years, emphasizing high-quality development and a shift towards domestic demand-driven growth [1] - The easing of external relations, particularly the high-level meeting between China and the U.S. in Busan, has created a buffer against external risks and improved market expectations for stable Sino-U.S. economic relations [1] Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for October has dropped to 49.0%, indicating a contraction, with a decline greater than seasonal factors would suggest [1] - The current economic environment is characterized by structural transformation and increasing external uncertainties, necessitating the guidance from the "14th Five-Year Plan" and positive Sino-U.S. interactions for a favorable economic outlook [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, and percentage changes of various domestic chemical and agricultural product futures on October 30, 2025, compared to October 29, 2025. It also covers significant macro - events such as the Sino - US leaders' meeting and the Fed's interest rate cut, and provides morning meeting views on major futures varieties, including analysis of supply - demand fundamentals, price trends, and trading strategies [4][6][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Price Changes - **Chemical Products**: On October 30, 2025, among chemical products, crude oil rose 0.54% to 465.10, PVC rose 0.817% to 4,814.00, while glass fell 1.331% to 1,112.00, and 20 - number rubber fell 0.590% to 12,645.00 [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: Among agricultural products, yellow soybean No. 2 rose 0.327% to 3,683.00, and cotton yarn rose 0.378% to 19,940.00, while palm oil fell 0.181% to 8,826.00, and yellow soybean No. 1 fell 0.146% to 4,107.00 [4]. 2. Macro - news - **Sino - US Relations**: Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30, 2025, to exchange views on Sino - US relations and common concerns [6]. - **Fed's Interest Rate Cut**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00% on October 30, 2025, and will end balance - sheet reduction from December 1. There are significant differences within the Fed on future policies, which has affected the financial markets [6]. - **Corporate News**: NVIDIA's market value exceeded $5 trillion, and Bank of America Global Research raised its target price [7]. - **Domestic Policies**: China is further deepening capital market reform and opening up the financial sector. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange launched 9 policy measures to facilitate cross - border trade, and relevant departments issued action plans for urban commercial improvement [7]. 3. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: On October 29, peanut futures closed slightly up, showing a narrow - range oscillation. The spot market has a situation of weak supply and demand. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate between 7,700 - 7,900, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Sugar**: On October 29, sugar futures showed a low - level rebound but were restricted by the 5,500 resistance level. The supply side has pressure, and the demand side is weak. It is recommended to operate with an oscillation mindset in the 5,450 - 5,520 range [11]. - **Corn**: On October 29, corn futures showed a narrow - range oscillation. The spot market has a slightly premium structure, with a loose supply situation. It is recommended to short at high prices and focus on the 2,100 support level [11]. - **Pigs**: The national average price of live pigs rose slightly. The supply pressure has eased, and the demand has increased. The futures market shows different trends in the near and far months, and it is expected to remain weak [11]. - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs was stable with a slight decline. The futures market showed a low - level rebound, reflecting the market's expectation of the Double Eleven holiday. It is recommended to short in the short - term and conduct inter - month reverse spreads [11]. - **Cotton**: On October 29, cotton futures showed an upward oscillation. The supply is expected to be loose, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate between 13,500 - 13,700 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price is weakly stable. The supply pressure is expected to increase, and the demand has not improved significantly. The futures price will continue to be sorted at a low level [12]. - **Caustic Soda**: The market expectation is weak, and the caustic soda 2601 contract is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the performance of the lower support [12]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price of coking coal has increased, and coke has started the third round of price increases. With the support of downstream demand, the double - coking market is strong and oscillating upward [12]. - **Pulp**: On October 29, pulp futures showed a narrow - range oscillation. The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and attention should be paid to the breakthrough direction of the 5,150 - 5,300 range [12]. 3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: Supported by macro and supply - demand factors, copper and aluminum prices remain high, but attention should be paid to macro risks [15]. - **Alumina**: The alumina market is in an oversupply situation, and the 2601 contract is running at a low level. Attention should be paid to the interference of factors such as bauxite [15]. - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: The spot market trading of rebar and hot - rolled coil has warmed up, and the fundamentals are improving. With the boost of macro factors, the steel price is expected to continue to oscillate upward [15]. - **Ferroalloys**: The ferroalloy market follows the upward trend of double - coking, but the supply - demand fundamentals are weak. It is expected to oscillate widely [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On October 29, the lithium carbonate futures price showed an upward oscillation. The demand is strong, and the price is expected to be strong in the short - term, but attention should be paid to the pressure from mine restart and warrant cancellation [17]. 3.4 Options and Finance - **Stock Index Futures and Options**: On October 29, the A - share market rose, and different stock index futures and options had different performance in terms of position, volume, and basis. It is recommended that trend investors pay attention to the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors consider buying straddles or wide straddles after the volatility decline [17]. - **Stock Market**: The A - share market showed a strong performance on October 29. After the Sino - US negotiation at the end of October, if there are no further negative factors, the market may break through the oscillation range. It is recommended to allocate stock index futures contracts during intraday pullbacks to avoid missing the market [18].

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in gold prices, including a drop of over 5%, are considered normal corrections following significant increases, as highlighted by Bank of America [1][4] Group 1: Historical Context of Gold Bull Markets - Since 1970, significant monthly corrections exceeding 10% have been common during gold bull markets, with such corrections not marking the end of the bull cycle [4][6] - Historical data shows that after these corrections, gold prices typically rebound, with increases ranging from 50% to 200% [7] Group 2: Current Market Dynamics - The current correction in gold prices may present an opportunity for investors who have not yet fully allocated to gold, as long as the macroeconomic drivers remain unchanged [3][9] - The report emphasizes that the true end of a gold bull market occurs only when fundamental macroeconomic factors shift significantly, such as a transition from stagflation to aggressive interest rate hikes [3][8] Group 3: Future Outlook - Bank of America projects that gold prices could rise to $5,000 per ounce next year, indicating a bullish long-term outlook despite short-term volatility [7] - The report suggests that as long as the U.S. does not revert to traditional economic policies or the Federal Reserve does not adopt a hawkish stance, the macroeconomic foundations supporting gold prices will remain intact [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's current economic pattern shows "strong supply and weak demand". In the first three quarters of 2025, China's GDP reached 1,015,036 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.2% at constant prices. In September, the industrial added value increased by 6.5% year-on-year, while the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.0% year-on-year, showing a continuous decline for four months. From January to September, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment turned negative, with real estate investment being the main drag, showing a cumulative year-on-year decline of 13.9% [3]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" has been implemented, with 7 major domestic economic development goals and 12 major deployments proposed, focusing on areas such as technological development, domestic demand expansion, opening up, social livelihood, and security development [3]. - China and the US will hold economic and trade consultations, which may ease trade frictions [3]. - The market trading volume has further shrunk, indicating a short - term liquidity deterioration [3]. - Against the backdrop of policy support and ample macro - liquidity, the index is expected to return to an upward channel after the short - term adjustment, and the adjustment space is limited. It is recommended to take long - term long positions [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Their Driving Forces** - **Economic and Corporate Earnings**: The economic pattern is "strong supply, weak demand", with production being strong and demand weak. The "15th Five - Year Plan" has positive implications for the economy, rated as neutral [3]. - **Macro Policy**: The implementation of the "15th Five - Year Plan" brings positive factors, rated as neutral - bullish [3]. - **Overseas Factors**: The upcoming China - US economic and trade consultations may ease trade frictions, changing from bearish to neutral [3]. - **Liquidity**: The market trading volume has shrunk, rated as bearish [3]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: It is recommended to take long positions opportunistically, with a focus on long - term long - term operations. The trading strategy is to take long positions unilaterally, and attention should be paid to domestic policies and overseas geopolitical factors [3]. Part Two: Stock Index Market Review - **Index Performance**: Last week, the CSI 300 rose 3.24% to 4,660.7; the SSE 50 rose 2.63% to 3,045.8; the CSI 500 rose 3.46% to 7,258.5; the CSI 1000 rose 3.25% to 7,419.2 [5]. - **Futures Performance**: The IF main contract of the CSI 300 rose 3.36%, the IH main contract of the SSE 50 rose 2.88%, the IC main contract of the CSI 500 rose 4.19%, and the IM main contract of the CSI 1000 rose 3.73% [6]. - **Industry Index Performance**: The Shenwan Primary Industry Index generally rose, with communications (11.5%), electronics (8.5%), power equipment (4.9%), machinery and equipment (4.7%), and media (4.3%) leading the gains, while agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-1.4%) and food and beverage (-0.9%) declined [10]. - **Futures Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures decreased. The trading volume of the CSI 300 futures decreased by 30.99%, the SSE 50 futures by 30.22%, the CSI 500 futures by 26.20%, and the CSI 1000 futures by 22.30%. The open interest of the CSI 300 futures decreased by 3.91%, the SSE 50 futures by 2.65%, the CSI 500 futures by 1.21%, and the CSI 1000 futures by 4.15% [12]. - **Spread Performance**: The spread of different contracts of various stock index futures showed different degrees of discount and premium [13][14][15]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The CSI 300 - SSE 50 spread was at the 95.2% historical quantile level, the CSI 1000 - CSI 500 spread was at the 33.7% historical quantile level, the CSI 300/CSI 1000 was at the 42.5% historical quantile level, and the SSE 50/CSI 1000 was at the 35.7% historical quantile level [19]. Part Three: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Liquidity - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 867.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 120 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit operations this week, achieving a net investment of 198.1 billion yuan. Next week, 867.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will mature, along with 700 billion yuan of MLF and 500 billion yuan of 182 - day repurchase [27]. - **Market Liquidity Indicators**: As of October 23, the margin trading balance of A - shares was 2,443.5 billion yuan, an increase of 21.57 billion yuan from the previous week. The ratio of margin trading purchases to the total market trading volume was 11.7%, at the 96.7% quantile level in the past ten years. The average daily trading volume of A - shares last week decreased by 349.49 billion yuan compared to the previous week. As of October 24, the risk premium rate of the CSI 300 was 5.02, at the 42.9% quantile level in the past ten years [33]. Part Four: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Earnings - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: In September 2025, GDP at constant prices increased by 4.8%, industrial added value increased by 6.5% year - on - year, fixed asset investment decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, real estate investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year, and social retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.0% year - on - year. Other indicators such as inflation, social financing, and foreign trade also showed different trends [36]. - **Industry - Specific Indicators**: In different industries such as real estate, consumption, manufacturing, and infrastructure, various indicators showed different trends. For example, in the real estate industry, investment continued to decline; in the consumer industry, the sales of some categories increased, while others decreased; in the manufacturing industry, different sub - sectors had different growth rates [38][42][43]. - **Profitability of Indexes and Industries**: The profitability indicators of major broad - based indexes and Shenwan primary industry indexes showed different trends. For example, the year - on - year growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent of some indexes and industries increased, while others decreased [50][51]. Part Four: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Policy Driving - **Recent Macro Policy Developments**: A series of macro - policies have been introduced, including policies related to service consumption, special bonds, the "15th Five - Year Plan", real estate, and consumption loans. These policies aim to promote economic development, expand domestic demand, and support specific industries [55][56][57]. Part Five: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Overseas Factors - **US Economic Indicators**: In September 2025, the US manufacturing PMI was 49.1%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous value, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50%, down 2 percentage points from the previous value. The consumer confidence index in October was 53.6, up 1.5 from the previous value. In August, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 4.3%, and the number of new non - farm payrolls was 22,000 [65]. - **US Inflation Indicators**: In September 2025, the US PCE increased by 0% year - on - year, and the core PCE increased by 0% year - on - year. The CPI increased by 3% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 3% year - on - year [69]. - **Trump Team's Actions**: Trump has proposed a series of tariff policies, including tariffs on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico, which may have an impact on international trade and the global economy [73].