1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - and sentiment - related disturbances are decreasing. After the price correction, the coking coal futures price is expected to rise. The coking coal main contract is expected to move in a volatile manner due to the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September, more tariff disturbances, and repeated fluctuations in market sentiment [2][9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights 3.1.1 Market Review - The daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines is 1.883 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 53,000 tons. The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants is 260,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 60,000 tons [8]. - The total inventory of coking coal (independent coking plants + 6 major ports + steel mills) is 1.92772 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 21,900 tons and a year - on - year increase of 10.76% [8]. - The warehouse receipt price of Mongolian No. 5 clean coal in Tangshan is 1,230, and the equivalent futures price is 1,010 [8]. - The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 16 yuan/ton. The profitability rate of steel mills is 68.4%, a week - on - week increase of 3.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 63.21 percentage points [8]. - The iron - making water production at the demand end remains high. The daily average iron - making water production is 2.4032 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,900 tons and a year - on - year increase of 86,200 tons [8]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Macroscopically, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is about to issue stable - growth work plans for industries such as machinery, automobiles, and power equipment. The 800 - billion - yuan list of "two major" construction projects this year has been fully issued, and the central budgetary investment of 735 billion yuan has been basically issued [9]. - Overseas, Trump has issued a military threat to Russia, and the US and Russia have agreed to hold a Putin - Trump summit. The US will impose an additional 15% tariff on Japan [9]. - In terms of supply and demand, the overall inventory at the mine end is decreasing. The clean coal inventory is shifting from upstream mines and coal washing plants to downstream coal - using enterprises. The cumulative import growth rate has been declining for 3 consecutive months, and the total inventory has increased for 4 consecutive weeks, with the inventory being moderately high [9]. - Technically, the weekly K - line of the coking coal main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend on the weekly chart [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - As of August 8, the open interest of coking coal futures contracts is 916,000 lots, a week - on - week increase of 152,000 lots. The price difference between the January and September contracts of coking coal is 157.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 points [16]. - As of August 8, the number of registered coking coal warehouse receipts is 0 lots, unchanged from the previous period. The ratio of the September contracts of coke and coking coal is 1.35, a week - on - week decrease of 0.10 points [22]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - As of August 7, 2025, the flat - price of coke at Rizhao Port is 1,480 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of coking coal in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia is 1,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. As of August 8, the basis of coking coal is - 129.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 184 points [26]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines this week is 83.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.4%. The daily average output of raw coal is 1.883 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 53,000 tons; the raw coal inventory is 476,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,800 tons; the daily average output of clean coal is 755,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 22,000 tons; the clean coal inventory is 245,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,600 tons [30]. - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants this week is 36.2%, a week - on - week increase of 1.19%. The daily output of clean coal is 260,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 60,000 tons; the clean coal inventory is 288,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 21,000 tons [30]. - From January to June, the output of raw coal from industrial enterprises above the designated size is 2.4 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. In June, the output of raw coal from industrial enterprises above the designated size is 420 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%, with a daily average output of 14.04 million tons. In June 2025, China's coking coal output is 4.06438 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.91% [54]. - In 2024, China's coal imports are 540 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.4%, setting a new record high, including a cumulative import of 121.895 million tons of coking coal, a year - on - year increase of 19.62%. In June, the total import of coking coal is 9.1084 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 23.30%. From January to June, the cumulative import is 52.9007 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.26%, and the import growth rate has been negative year - on - year for 3 consecutive months [56]. 3.3.2 Mid - stream - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 73.75%, a week - on - week increase of 0.27%. The daily output of coke is 520,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 19,000 tons; the coke inventory is 446,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18,900 tons; the total coking coal inventory is 832,750 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 113,100 tons; the available days of coking coal are 12.0 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.21 days [35]. - As of August 1, 2025, the total coking coal inventory (independent coking plants + 6 major ports + steel mills) is 1.92772 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 21,900 tons and a year - on - year increase of 10.76% [35]. - The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports nationwide is 4.6305 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 308,900 tons; the inventory of coke at 18 ports nationwide is 2.7355 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 26,500 tons. The rapid price increase mode of coking coal is approaching an end, and the demand has slightly slowed down, with overall transactions mainly for rigid demand [39]. 3.3.3 Downstream - The daily average iron - making water production of 247 steel mills is 2.4032 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,900 tons and a year - on - year increase of 86,200 tons. The profitability rate of steel mills is 68.4%, a week - on - week increase of 3.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 63.21 percentage points [46]. - The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 16 yuan/ton. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills is 808,660 tons, a week - on - week increase of 48,700 tons; the available days of coking coal are 12.99 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 days; the inventory of pulverized coal injection is 412,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8,200 tons; the available days of pulverized coal injection are 11.95 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 days [50].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Propylene prices are expected to fluctuate weakly under supply and demand pressure [3] - Inter - period: PL01 - 02 inter - period reverse spread [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Macro sentiment has improved, and the propylene futures market has been repaired. However, the falling crude oil price at the cost end, combined with insufficient supply - demand drivers, restricts the upward space of propylene. Supply pressure still exists as some devices are shut down temporarily, but there are expectations of restarting PDH devices and releasing new production capacities. Demand has phased support, but its sustainability is questionable during the traditional off - season [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The data in this section includes the closing price of the propylene main contract, the basis in East China and North China, the 01 - 05 contract, and the market prices in East China and Shandong [7][10][12] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - It involves the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit and methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [17][26][30] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - This part shows the differences between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [35][39] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - It includes the production profits and operating rates of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [42][44][47] 5. Propylene Inventory - The data consists of propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [66]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1221.00 | +39.00↑ | J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1644.50 | +10.00↑ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 862415.00 | +57495.00↑ | J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 52939.00 | +201.00↑ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -94717.00 | +12500.00↑ | 焦炭前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -7460.00 | -258.00↓ | | | JM1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 147.00 | 0.00 | J1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 88.00 | +14.50↑ | | | 焦煤仓单（日，张） | 0.00 | 0.00 | 焦炭仓单（日，张） | 800.00 | +40.00↑ | | | 干其毛都蒙5原煤（日，元/吨） | 930.00 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Propylene prices are expected to fluctuate weakly under supply - demand pressure [3] - Inter - period: PL01 - 02 inter - period reverse spread [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The macro sentiment has warmed up, and the propylene futures market has recovered. However, the continuous decline in crude oil prices at the cost end, combined with insufficient supply - demand drivers, restricts the upward space of propylene. On the supply side, there are maintenance works at Tianjin Bohua and Dongming Petrochemical, and the upstream operating rate has declined slightly. The overall operating rate of PDH has also decreased slightly month - on - month. There is an expectation of restarting the Bohua PDH device in early August, and with the expected release of new production capacity, the supply pressure still exists. On the demand side, some polypropylene and octanol devices have restarted, providing phased support for demand. The overall downstream operating rate has increased slightly month - on - month, but the sustainability is questionable during the traditional off - season of demand [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The report presents data on the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, East China market price, and Shandong market price of propylene [7][10][12] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Data on the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate are provided [16][23][26] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Information includes the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, Japan CFR and China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, and propylene import profit [33][37] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - Data on the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone are given [40][42][45] 5. Propylene Inventory - The report shows data on propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [66]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Economic Growth Target**: China's economic growth target for 2025 is maintained at 5%, with a growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year. The fiscal easing policy will continue in the second half, but the impact on nominal GDP and PPI may be limited due to moderate demand-side policies [1][3][4]. - **Real Estate Market**: The real estate market is showing signs of weakness, with significant inventory pressure despite some recovery in transaction volumes in core cities. The need to stabilize buyer expectations and improve product quality is emphasized [2][38][39]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Trade Relations**: The U.S.-China trade negotiations have been postponed, with a slightly hawkish stance from the U.S. The introduction of secondary tariffs on imported goose oil has caused market fluctuations, indicating ongoing sensitivity to trade tensions [1][6]. - **Policy Outlook**: The political bureau meeting expressed optimism about the economic situation, emphasizing policy coherence and stability. Incremental policies may become evident in Q4, focusing on improving fund efficiency [1][12][19]. - **Demand-Side Policies**: Demand-side policies are present but are less systematic compared to supply-side reforms. The impact on PPI and GDP is expected to be moderate [5][7][14]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Capital Market Sentiment**: The capital market is expected to be more attractive and inclusive, with potential adjustments in IPO thresholds and margin trading data. Structural opportunities are highlighted despite a lack of clear performance drivers [1][23][28]. - **Real Estate Challenges**: The real estate market faces challenges such as high inventory levels and declining prices, with a significant inventory of nearly 500 million square meters in 80 key cities, leading to a de-stocking cycle of about 28 months [39][40]. - **Future Planning**: The upcoming five-year plan will dominate macroeconomic policy, focusing on high-level security and quality development, with energy, electricity, national security, and technological independence as key indicators [1][19]. Sector-Specific Insights - **Real Estate**: The market is stabilizing, but the pressure from inventory remains high. Core cities are showing some recovery, but overall, the market needs to address buyer confidence and product quality [38][41][42]. - **Consumer Sector**: The consumer sector is expected to recover faster than real estate, with policies aimed at enhancing service consumption. The focus is on stable ROE and dividend yields in consumer and financial sectors [32][36]. - **Technology Sector**: The technology sector remains crucial, with strong support policies and potential for growth in areas like AI and cloud computing. The sector is seen as undervalued compared to global peers [31][37]. Conclusion The conference call highlights a cautious yet optimistic outlook for the Chinese economy, with specific attention to the real estate market's challenges and the potential for recovery in consumer and technology sectors. The emphasis on policy stability and structural opportunities in the capital market suggests a strategic approach to navigating the current economic landscape.

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The macro - atmosphere has weakened, and the commodity market has declined across the board. Zhengzhou cotton (ZCE cotton) funds have reduced positions and exited the market. The short - term price of cotton is expected to fluctuate weakly. Although the cotton fundamentals are stable, with low commercial inventories providing some support, the lack of upward - driving factors and the weakening technical indicators suggest a cautious outlook. For downstream textile enterprises, they can consider selling out - of - the - money put options to reduce raw material procurement costs when prices fall [2][3][46]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 First Part: Basic Data of Domestic and International Cotton Markets - **Price Changes of Major Commodities and Cotton**: From July 25 to August 1, the CRB commodity price index decreased by 2.3% (from 302.25 to 295.28 points), the ICE cotton futures' December contract dropped by 2.65% (from 68.23 to 66.42 cents/pound), and the main 09 contract of ZCE cotton fell by 585 yuan/ton to 13585 yuan/ton, with a reduction of 179,000 lots in positions to 326,000 lots. Some commodities like gold and crude oil rose, while agricultural products generally declined [2][7][10]. - **Imported Cotton Prices**: The CNF quotes of imported cotton in major ports decreased. For example, the price of US E/MOTM decreased by 0.6 cents/pound, and that of Brazilian M decreased by 1.9 cents/pound [9]. - **Domestic Cotton and Yarn Market**: Domestic cotton spot and futures prices dropped significantly. In the cotton yarn market, downstream demand was weak, and transactions slowed down. The immediate profit of spinning enterprises improved, and the cash - flow loss of inland spinning enterprises shrank to less than 500 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 Second Part: Domestic Market Situation - **Textile Raw Material Prices**: On August 1, compared with July 25, the price trends of raw materials such as polyester staple fiber, viscose, and cotton were mixed. For example, polyester staple fiber decreased by 35 yuan/ton, while viscose increased by 10 yuan/ton [14]. - **Yarn Prices**: The price of domestic and imported yarns generally declined. The price difference between domestic and imported yarns narrowed, and the price difference between domestic cotton and international cotton (under sliding - scale duty) widened [18][20][26]. 3.3 Third Part: ZCE Cotton Market Analysis - **ZCE Cotton Warehouse Receipts and Forecasts**: As of August 1, the registered warehouse receipts of ZCE cotton were 8807 lots (378,000 tons), with 348 valid forecasts, and the total of warehouse receipts and forecasts was 393,000 tons, down from 419,000 tons on July 25 [30]. - **ZCE Cotton Futures - Spot Price Difference**: The price difference between ZCE cotton futures and the CCI3128B index widened. The price difference between ZCE cotton and ICE cotton (under sliding - scale duty) also increased [32][33]. - **ZCE Cotton Price Analysis**: Macroeconomic factors and policies at home and abroad have an impact on cotton prices. The overall growth of US cotton plants is good, while India's cotton sowing progress lags behind last year. The inspection of Xinjiang - related products has rebounded. Technically, the indicators of ZCE cotton have weakened [34][35][39]. 3.4 Fourth Part: International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Export Dynamics**: From July 18 - 24, the net signing of US 2024/25 - year land cotton decreased significantly compared with the previous week but increased significantly compared with the four - week average. The shipment of land cotton increased. The net signing and shipment of Pima cotton showed different trends. New - year contracts were also signed [42]. - **ICE Cotton Futures Analysis**: On August 1, the ICE cotton futures' December contract decreased by 2.65% compared with July 25. Technically, the indicators have weakened [44]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Operation Suggestions For downstream textile enterprises, when the raw material price drops, they can consider selling out - of - the - money put options to reduce the cost of raw material procurement [46].

不仅是东盟区域内的经济一体化，区域外也有必要与欧洲签订自由度高的贸易协定。5月在意大利召开 的亚开行年会上，很多欧洲首脑和部长提出了"把亚洲的市场和欧洲联系起来"的要求，欧洲也认为亚洲 是最大的增长市场。 亚洲开发银行总裁神田真人（高桥铃 摄） 神田真人："中国+1"已经成为从中国向最终消费地美国出口的迂回路线，这是脆弱的结构，大家都在反 思。今后，不仅产品的最终消费地，原材料和中间材料的客户也需要多样化。"中国+1"的基本战略至今 仍然有效…… 相关阅读： 亚开行总裁神田真人：不会回到特朗普前的世界 在"特朗普2.0"时代，此前被认为理所当然的事物不断被颠覆。作为世界增长中心、以出口为主导不断 发展的亚洲的出路在哪里？就此日本经济新闻采访了2月就任亚洲开发银行（简称亚开行、ADB）总裁 的日本前财务官神田真人，分两次刊登采访的内容。 记者： 亚洲新兴国家还存在限制外资取得土地等非关税壁垒。各国真的能实施放松监管等改革吗？ 神田真人： 大多数亚洲的首脑都是认真的，能够感受到即使有各种各样的障碍，他们仍想利用这种局 面来进行至今为止做不到的改革这一态度。靠奇怪的花招生存下去是不可能的，有很多地方正在进行痛 苦的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 31, the coking coal 2509 contract closed at 1045.5, down 7.97% and hitting the daily limit. After several macro - events settled, market sentiment weakened. Fundamentally, mine - end inventory generally decreased, clean coal inventory shifted from upstream mines and coal - washing plants to downstream coal - using enterprises, import cumulative growth rate declined for 3 consecutive months, and total inventory increased for 4 consecutive weeks with a moderately high inventory level. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On July 31, the coke 2509 contract closed at 1601.0, down 4.93%. The spot market started the fifth round of price increase. After the Politburo meeting on July 30, there was no obvious incremental policy expectation, and with the impact of position limits, the market became cautious about high prices. Fundamentally, raw - material inventory rebounded, this period's hot - metal output was 242.23 tons, a decrease of 0.21 tons, with high hot - metal production and no pressure on coal - mine inventory, and the total coking coal inventory increased for 4 consecutive weeks. In terms of profit, the average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was 54 yuan/ton this period. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM main contract closing price was 1045.50 yuan/ton, down 71.50 yuan; J main contract closing price was 1601.00 yuan/ton, down 75.50 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract holding volume was 783278.00 lots, down 10291.00 lots; J futures contract holding volume was 50815.00 lots, down 241.00 lots [2]. - Net position of the top 20 coking coal contracts was - 108407.00 lots, down 14621.00 lots; net position of the top 20 coke contracts was - 6493.00 lots, up 874.00 lots [2]. - JM 1 - 9 month contract spread was 89.50 yuan/ton, down 26.00 yuan; J 1 - 9 month contract spread was 53.50 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts were 0.00; coke warehouse receipts were 760.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal was 1000.00 yuan/ton, down 13.00 yuan; Tangshan quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Russian main coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 143.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1420.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported main coking coal was 1550.00 yuan/ton, up 130.00 yuan; Tianjin Port first - grade metallurgical coke was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced main coking coal was 1680.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1420.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur main coking coal was 1400.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; J main contract basis was 9.00 yuan/ton, up 75.50 yuan [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price was 1080.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; JM main contract basis was 354.50 yuan/ton, up 71.50 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Raw coal inventory of 110 coal - washing plants was 277.10 million tons, down 15.43 million tons; clean coal inventory of 110 coal - washing plants was 166.39 million tons, down 9.23 million tons [2]. - Operating rate of 110 coal - washing plants was 61.51%, down 0.80%; raw coal output was 42107.40 million tons, up 1779.00 million tons [2]. - Coal and lignite import volume was 3304.00 million tons, down 300.00 million tons; daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 193.60 million tons, down 1.20 million tons [2]. - Imported coking coal inventory at 16 ports was 512.04 million tons, down 41.46 million tons; coke inventory at 18 ports was 250.33 million tons, down 2.38 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Total coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises (full sample) was 985.38 million tons, up 56.27 million tons; total coke inventory of independent coking enterprises (full sample) was 80.12 million tons, down 7.43 million tons [2]. - Coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide was 799.51 million tons, up 8.41 million tons; coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills nationwide was 639.98 million tons, up 0.99 million tons [2]. - Available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises (full sample) was 12.75 days, up 0.12 days; available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills was 11.45 days, down 0.01 days [2]. - Coking coal import volume was 910.84 million tons, up 172.10 million tons; coke and semi - coke export volume was 51.00 million tons, down 17.00 million tons [2]. - Coking coal output was 4070.27 million tons, up 144.11 million tons; capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.45%, up 0.44% [2]. - Ton - coke profit of independent coking plants was - 54.00 yuan/ton, down 11.00 yuan; coke output was 4170.30 million tons, down 67.30 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.48%, unchanged; blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.78%, down 0.14% [2]. - Crude steel output was 8318.40 million tons, down 336.10 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee will hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in October to study suggestions on formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development [2]. - The US will impose a 15% tariff on South Korea, a 40% additional tariff on Brazil (total tariff reaching 50%), and a 25% tariff on goods from India [2]. - The International Energy Agency predicts that global electricity demand will grow strongly, with an expected growth of 3.3% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026 [2]. - The Bank of Canada maintained the key policy rate at 2.75% for the third consecutive time and said the risk of a serious escalation of the global trade war has weakened [2].

Economic Outlook - The overall economic development is viewed more optimistically, with the second quarter GDP growth at 5.2%, indicating a strong performance against external uncertainties[1][7] - The meeting's language shifted from "external shocks increasing" to "reducing negative impacts from external uncertainties," suggesting positive signals in China-US trade relations[1][7] Policy Adjustments - Macro policy is now described as "sustained efforts and timely enhancements," indicating a continued loose policy stance but with less urgency for immediate action[2][8] - The focus is on improving the efficiency of government bond issuance and maintaining liquidity to lower financing costs, with a macro leverage ratio exceeding 300% in Q2[2][8] Fiscal and Monetary Coordination - Emphasis on the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies to prevent idle capital while ensuring sufficient liquidity[2][8] - The likelihood of additional government bond issuance in the second half of the year is reduced due to optimistic economic forecasts, although actual economic conditions may still necessitate it[2][8] Structural Reforms - The meeting highlighted the need for deepening reforms to enhance industrial quality and efficiency, with potential policies aimed at optimizing capacity and stabilizing prices[3][9] - There is a shift in real estate policy focus from new developments to urban renewal, which may better stimulate demand in the existing housing market[3][9] Risks and Observations - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic macroeconomic policies and the possibility of concentrated credit events[3][9] - The third quarter is identified as a critical observation window for assessing the effectiveness of these policies and their impact on the economy[3][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the energy and chemical industry. However, the outlook suggests that the energy and chemical sector will continue to fluctuate, and some chemical products with high inventories may face pressure and are suitable for short - allocation [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US second - quarter GDP growth rate exceeded expectations, and the Chinese economy showed vitality and resilience. The energy and chemical sector continued to fluctuate. Geopolitical factors and economic data influenced the prices of energy and chemical products. The high - level meeting in China indicated good economic indicators, which may reduce the possibility of introducing economic stimulus policies, dragging down the demand side of commodities and energy chemicals to some extent [1][2]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical support continued, and attention should be paid to Russian oil risks. - **Main Logic**: The US imposed new sanctions on Iranian oil, and concerns about Trump's possible increased sanctions on Russia continued. Geopolitical factors drove oil prices. High refinery operations in China and the US and strong margins provided support, but OPEC + was in a period of rapid production increase, and supply pressure was still present. - **Outlook**: The strong reality dominated by high refinery operations at home and abroad and the weak expectation dominated by supply pressure balanced each other, and oil prices fluctuated. Attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [9]. 3.2 LPG - **Viewpoint**: The support from the cost side weakened, the fundamental situation of supply - demand remained loose, and the PG futures market might fluctuate weakly [2]. 3.3 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: As crude oil prices rose, it was a good time for short - sellers of asphalt to enter the market. - **Main Logic**: Crude oil price rebounds drove asphalt price increases. The spot market of asphalt was stronger in the north than in the south, and the futures market might shift from Shandong - based pricing to East and South China - based pricing. The demand side was weak, and the valuation of asphalt was relatively high. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt was over - valued, and the monthly spread of asphalt might decline as the number of warehouse receipts increased [11]. 3.4 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: High - sulfur fuel oil rebounded following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: OPEC + continued to increase production, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil for power generation was affected. The supply of heavy oil increased, and the three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil were weakening. - **Outlook**: Overall, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil was expected to increase and demand to decrease. Geopolitical upgrades would only cause short - term price fluctuations, and high - sulfur fuel oil would fluctuate weakly [12]. 3.5 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The price of low - sulfur fuel oil futures rebounded following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: It followed the trend of crude oil. Although the diesel cracking spread increased, low - sulfur fuel oil faced negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur fuel oil substitution. The supply was expected to increase and demand to decrease, and it would maintain a low - valuation operation. - **Outlook**: Affected by green fuel substitution and limited demand for high - sulfur fuel oil substitution, but with a low current valuation, it would fluctuate following crude oil [13]. 3.6 PX - **Viewpoint**: It returned to the fundamental pricing logic, and attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations. - **Main Logic**: The impact of commodity sentiment subsided, and the market returned to fundamental pricing. Many PX plants were scheduled to restart in August, and new PTA plants were put into operation, so the supply - demand contradiction was not prominent, and there was limited upward or downward space. - **Outlook**: It would fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the short - term impact of US secondary sanctions on Russia on oil prices [14]. 3.7 PTA - **Viewpoint**: New plants were put into operation, and the repair of processing fees was blocked. - **Main Logic**: The supply and demand of PTA both increased, but the marginal supply - demand relationship was still weak, and the repair of processing fees was blocked. The price would follow the cost of upstream products, and the processing fees might improve after large - scale plant maintenance in early August. - **Outlook**: It would fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the implementation of large - scale plant maintenance at the beginning of August [15]. 3.8 Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: As crude oil rebounded, the price of pure benzene increased slightly. - **Main Logic**: The price of pure benzene increased slightly following the rebound of crude oil. The fundamental situation of pure benzene improved in the third quarter, but the rebound was limited by inventory pressure. - **Outlook**: It would fluctuate [16]. 3.9 Styrene - **Viewpoint**: The commodity sentiment cooled down, while crude oil prices broke through. Styrene fluctuated within a narrow range. - **Main Logic**: The fundamental situation of pure benzene improved, but it did not strongly support styrene. Styrene's own supply - demand was expected to weaken, and port inventories were accumulating. - **Outlook**: Although styrene inventories at ports were increasing recently, the inventories of the upstream and downstream of the industry chain were not high. If the macro - sentiment continued to improve, there might be inventory replenishment in the industry chain, which could support the market. Attention should be paid to changes in commodity sentiment [19]. 3.10 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Viewpoint**: The fundamental driving force was limited, and typhoons affected the arrival rhythm of goods. - **Main Logic**: The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol changed little. Although the demand increased slightly due to the rising polyester load, the supply was expected to increase in August, and the market was in a wide - balance state. Typhoons affected port inventories, but there was still an expectation of inventory accumulation in the medium term. - **Outlook**: There was an expectation of an inventory inflection point [20]. 3.11 Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: It followed the trend passively. - **Main Logic**: Under the fluctuating raw material prices, the supply - demand of short - fiber changed little, and it mainly followed the upstream products. The downstream sales were still not good. - **Outlook**: The processing fees of short - fiber would remain stable, and the absolute price would follow the raw materials [22]. 3.12 Bottle - Chip - **Viewpoint**: It returned to the cost - pricing model. - **Main Logic**: With the fluctuating upstream polyester raw materials, the price of bottle - chip was mainly determined by cost, and its own supply - demand changed little, and the processing fees were weak. - **Outlook**: The processing fees of bottle - chip had support at the bottom, and the absolute price would follow the raw materials [23]. 3.13 PP - **Viewpoint**: There was still some macro - support, and PP fluctuated. - **Main Logic**: Short - term oil price increases and positive signals from the macro - level provided support, but the supply side was expected to increase, and the demand side was weak. - **Outlook**: PP would fluctuate in the short term [31]. 3.14 Propylene - **Viewpoint**: It mainly followed the fluctuations, and PL might fluctuate in the short term. - **Main Logic**: The spot supply of propylene was abundant, and the enterprise inventory was controllable. The market followed the fluctuations of PP and methanol. Due to the new product listing and far - month contracts, the influence of spot was limited, and the market might fluctuate at a relatively high level. - **Outlook**: PL would fluctuate in the short term [32]. 3.15 Plastic - **Viewpoint**: As oil prices strengthened, plastic fluctuated. - **Main Logic**: Oil price increases, macro - uncertainties, and the pressure on the supply side and weak demand side of plastic itself affected the market. - **Outlook**: The short - term oil price increase and macro - uncertainties led to short - term fluctuations in the plastic 09 contract [30]. 3.16 PVC - **Viewpoint**: The policy expectation cooled down, and PVC mainly fluctuated. - **Main Logic**: There were no unexpected policies in the high - level meeting, and the market sentiment cooled down. The fundamental situation of PVC was under pressure, with increasing production, weak downstream demand, and an expected increase in costs. - **Outlook**: The market sentiment cooled down, and the futures price declined [35]. 3.17 Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: Supported by low inventories in Shandong, caustic soda fluctuated. - **Main Logic**: The market sentiment cooled down. The demand for caustic soda from the alumina industry increased marginally, but the overall supply was high. There was a balance between low inventories in Shandong and cost support. - **Outlook**: The policy expectation cooled down, and there was pressure from near - month warehouse receipts. The downward space of caustic soda was limited [35]. 3.18 Methanol - **Viewpoint**: Port inventories were accumulating, and methanol fluctuated. - **Main Logic**: The futures price of methanol fluctuated. Port inventories increased, and the actual impact of policies was limited. The production profit was relatively high, and there was still a negative feedback expectation in the downstream olefin industry. - **Outlook**: It would fluctuate in the short term [26]. 3.19 Urea - **Viewpoint**: The supply was strong and the demand was weak. The sentiment was temporarily boosted, and exports supported the market. Urea fluctuated in the short term. - **Main Logic**: The spot price increased, but the fundamental situation of supply - demand remained unchanged, with strong supply and weak demand. The market was expected to fluctuate due to the influence of coal policies. - **Outlook**: In the context of strong supply and weak demand, the fundamental support was limited. The market sentiment temporarily boosted the price, and the futures price of urea would fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the development after the market returned to fundamentals [26]. 4. Variety Data Monitoring 4.1 Inter - Period Spread - The report provided the latest values and changes of inter - period spreads for various energy and chemical products, including Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc. These data reflected the price differences between different delivery months of each variety [37]. 4.2 Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The report presented the basis and the number of warehouse receipts for each variety, such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, PX, etc., which were important indicators for analyzing the relationship between the spot and futures markets [38]. 4.3 Inter - Variety Spread - The report showed the latest values and changes of inter - variety spreads, such as the spread between PP and 3MA, TA and EG, etc., which helped to understand the relative price relationships between different energy and chemical products [39].