征稿(作者：中电投先融期货 郭庆祎）--9月的议息会议，美联储谨慎降息25基点，内部对后续路径分歧 加剧，鲍威尔警示通胀与股市风险，而美国财政部长则公开敦促美联储应在年底前大幅降息，显示出行 政与货币政策当局的明显张力。国内流动性维持宽松，LPR持稳且央行净投放超2600亿元，但地产低迷 持续拖累经济与铝消费。氧化铝供应宽松，价格承压，区域价差收敛。电解铝供应高位，需求呈结构性 分化，建筑型材疲软，线缆、板带略回升，社会库存累积反映"旺季不旺"。预计10月沪铝延续震荡，上 方受制于氧化铝过剩、宏观及地产压力，下方有旺季和政策预期支撑，重点关注库存拐点及海外政策动 向，建议区间操作、谨慎追高。 一、期现价格走势 （一）国内外铝价走势 近期份铝价外强内弱。伦铝3M电子盘开2614美元/吨，最低2588美元/吨，最高2720美元/吨，月内上涨 73美元/吨，涨幅2.80%。国内沪铝主力合约开盘20745元/吨，最低20525元/吨，最高21140元/吨，月内 下跌65元/吨，跌幅0.32%。9月沪伦铝比值较上月弱势运行，最低7.70，最高7.95。 进入传统的消费旺季，沪铝跨期价差大幅收敛。美联储降息预期虽提振市场 ...

spsf 总量月报 关注政策宽松带来的交易机会 总量月报第 3 期 50%关联方规则是美国出口管制趋严的又一体现，未来还需警惕高科技行业 的制裁风险、关税风险和以"国家安全"为名的 232 调查。 我们认为，"关联方规则"将对特定地区（如俄罗斯等国家）和高科技行业 （半导体、航空航天、人工智能和其他军民两用技术等高科技行业的公司） 产生较大影响。 固定收益：配置价值凸显，交易关注超跌反弹 今年以来，财政政策较为积极，9-12 月财政赤字仍有 1.5 万亿元同比扩张空 间，年内可能不会追加预算赤字。但是财政部表示将"提前下达部分 2026 年新增地方政府债务限额，靠前使用化债额度"，财政政策力度有可能进一 步加大。和财政政策相比，货币政策更加灵活。4 季度货币政策有可能再次 宽松，10 月底 11 月初可能出现降息降准的时间窗口。 国内政策：预告重要会议，后续政策可期 9 月国家政策延续了 7 月中央政治局会议"落实落细"的方向，在宏观经济 及产业政策方面持续发力。尤为值得重视的是，9 月中央政治局会议公布了 二十届四中全会召开时间，"十五五"规划精神呼之欲出。 海外政策：解读 BIS 50%关联方规则——"严 ...

以下文章来源于中国宏观经济论坛 CMF ，作者杨瑞龙 中国宏观经济论坛 CMF . 创立于2006年，由中国人民大学国发院、经济学院、中诚信国际信用评级有限公司联合主办。依托人大经济学一级学科排名全国第一的优秀研究力量，诚邀 社会知名专家，集中从事中国宏观经济动态和重大经济问题研究，定期发布分析与预测报告。 文/ 中国人民大学国家一级教授、经济研究所联席所长、中国宏观经济论坛 （CMF）联合创始人、联席主席 杨瑞龙 在 探 寻 价 格 走 出 低 迷 格 局 的 思 路 时 ， 尽 管 宏 观 经 济 政 策 具 备 一 定 调 控 效 能，但单纯依赖宏观政策显然不足以破解目前的困局。近年来，尽管财政 政策持续积极、货币政策保持相对宽松，政策力度不可谓不大，然而其对 提 振 需 求 的 实 际 效 果 却 未 达 到 预 期 。 这 并 非 否 定 宏 观 政 策 的 重 要 性 ， 相 反，仍需进一步强化宏观经济政策的刺激力度。 从经济学视角考察，价格持续低迷可归因于供需两端：需求不足或供给过度。 从需求端分析，需求不足并非指意愿层面的需求不足，而是有效需 求不足。意愿需求也被成为瓦尔拉斯需求函数， 它描述 ...

以下文章来源于中国宏观经济论坛 CMF ，作者杨瑞龙 中国宏观经济论坛 CMF . 创立于2006年，由中国人民大学国发院、经济学院、中诚信国际信用评级有限公司联合主办。依托人大 经济学一级学科排名全国第一的优秀研究力量，诚邀社会知名专家，集中从事中国宏观经济动态和重大 经济问题研究，定期发布分析与预测报告。 杨瑞龙 中国人民大学国家一级教授、经济研究所联席所长、中国宏观经济论坛（CMF） 联合创始人、联席主席 数据表明，在连续三年左右时间内，CPI一直在零左右徘徊，PPI一直负增长，国民总支出平减指数 连续8个季度为负，这反映了宏观经济基本面 "在底部徘徊"，仍处于探底之中。 从经济学视角考 察，价格持续低迷可归因于供需两端：需求不足或供给过度。 从需求端分析，需求不足并非指意愿 层面的需求不足，而是有效需求不足。意愿需求也被成为瓦尔拉斯需求函数， 它描述效用最大消费 束与商品价格及财富水平之间关系的函数，可通过效用函数的最优解直接推导得出。有效需求作为凯 恩斯主义的核心概念，它指的是有支付能力的需求，即强调厂商与家庭在需求决策时遵循双重决策规 则，其需求不仅取决于价格水平，也受制于收入约束。只有厘清需求背 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, after a continuous rise, high - level hot sectors like AI have seen divergences, with funds switching between high - and low - level stocks and rapid rotation, reducing market risk appetite. Short - term index faces uncertainty due to shrinking trading volume, but in the long - run, with policy support for the capital market unchanged, the strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, in Q4, the supply - demand pattern may improve. The market may oscillate under the intertwined situation of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect, and if the stock market cools and allocation forces increase, the bond market may recover [7]. - For precious metals, short - term interest rate cut expectations are frustrated, but the Fed's mid - term easing pattern remains unchanged. It is recommended to go long on dips, especially paying attention to the rising opportunity of silver prices [9]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metals are expected to have a certain degree of support in price, with some showing a trend of shock - strengthening or shock - running, mainly affected by factors such as Fed interest rate policies, trade situations, and industry supply - demand [12][14][16]. - For black building materials, steel prices are under downward pressure due to weak demand, and the iron ore price may adjust downward if the downstream situation weakens after the festival. Glass and soda ash are expected to oscillate, and manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [31][33][39]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is weak in the short - term but bullish in the medium - term; crude oil has short - term uncertainties; and methanol's fundamentals are improving [52][54][56]. - For agricultural products, the supply - demand situation varies. For example, the pig price is weak, the egg price may stabilize after a small decline. Bean and rapeseed meal are under short - term pressure, and the price of edible oils may strengthen in the medium - term [74][76][81]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Stock Index - **行情资讯**: The central bank aims to maintain ample liquidity and guide financial institutions to increase credit supply. The NDRC plans to build a new computing power network infrastructure. Eight - department issued a plan for the non - ferrous metal industry. The SASAC held a symposium on the economic operation of state - owned enterprises. The new energy storage market is short of cores [2]. - **期指基差比例**: IF, IC, and IM show different negative basis ratios for different contract periods, while IH has positive basis ratios in some cases [3]. - **策略观点**: Short - term uncertainty exists, but long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **行情资讯**: On Friday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes. In August, industrial enterprise profits increased year - on - year. Eight - department issued a plan for the non - ferrous metal industry [5]. - **流动性**: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations on Friday, with a net injection of 4115 billion yuan [6]. - **策略观点**: The bond market may oscillate in Q4, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond relationship [7]. Precious Metals - **行情资讯**: Domestic and foreign precious metals had different price changes, and the positions of precious metal futures and ETFs increased significantly [8]. - **策略观点**: It is recommended to go long on dips, especially for silver [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **行情资讯**: Copper prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis. Import losses and refined - waste spreads also had corresponding changes [11]. - **策略观点**: Short - term copper prices may continue to oscillate strongly [12]. Aluminum - **行情资讯**: Aluminum prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [13]. - **策略观点**: Aluminum prices have strong support below [14]. Zinc - **行情资讯**: Zinc prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [15]. - **策略观点**: Short - term zinc prices may be weak [16]. Lead - **行情资讯**: Lead prices increased slightly, with changes in inventory and basis [17]. - **策略观点**: Short - term lead prices may be strong [17]. Nickel - **行情资讯**: Nickel prices oscillated, with changes in spot prices and costs [18]. - **策略观点**: Short - term observation is recommended, and long on dips can be considered if prices fall enough [18]. Tin - **行情资讯**: Tin prices oscillated, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [19]. - **策略观点**: Tin prices may continue to oscillate, and observation is recommended [20]. Carbonate Lithium - **行情资讯**: Carbonate lithium prices had different changes, and the price of lithium concentrate was stable [21]. - **策略观点**: Carbonate lithium futures may oscillate within a range [22]. Alumina - **行情资讯**: Alumina prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [23]. - **策略观点**: Observation is recommended, and attention should be paid to relevant policies [24]. Stainless Steel - **行情资讯**: Stainless steel prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [25]. - **策略观点**: Stainless steel prices may oscillate in the short - term [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **行情资讯**: Cast aluminum alloy prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [27]. - **策略观点**: Futures may be weaker than spot, with support from scrap aluminum prices [28]. Black Building Materials Steel - **行情资讯**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [30]. - **策略观点**: Steel prices may be weak and volatile, and attention should be paid to the policies of the Fourth Plenary Session [31]. Iron Ore - **行情资讯**: Iron ore prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [32]. - **策略观点**: Short - term iron ore prices may be strong, but may adjust downward after the festival if downstream demand weakens [33]. Glass and Soda Ash - **行情资讯**: Glass and soda ash prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [34][36]. - **策略观点**: Glass can be considered slightly bullish in the short - term, and soda ash is expected to oscillate [35][37]. Manganese - Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **行情资讯**: Manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [38]. - **策略观点**: They are likely to follow the black sector's trend, and manganese - silicon may have potential driving factors [39][40]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **行情资讯**: Industrial silicon prices declined, and polysilicon prices had a small increase, with changes in inventory and basis [41][44]. - **策略观点**: Industrial silicon may oscillate in the short - term, and polysilicon prices may decline in the short - term [43][45]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **行情资讯**: Rubber prices were weak, with factors such as expected state reserve sales and weather affecting the market [47]. - **策略观点**: Mid - term bullish, short - term weak, and observation is recommended after the festival [52]. Crude Oil - **行情资讯**: Crude oil and related product prices increased, with changes in inventory [53]. - **策略观点**: Short - term uncertainties exist, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and observe [54]. Methanol - **行情资讯**: Methanol prices had small changes, with changes in basis [55]. - **策略观点**: The fundamentals are improving, and short - term long positions can be considered on dips [56]. Urea - **行情资讯**: Urea prices declined slightly, with changes in basis [57]. - **策略观点**: Low - valuation and weak - driving, long positions can be considered on dips [57]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **行情资讯**: Pure benzene prices were stable, and styrene prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [58]. - **策略观点**: Styrene prices may stop falling, and observation is recommended [59]. PVC - **行情资讯**: PVC prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [60]. - **策略观点**: The supply - demand situation is poor, and short - term long positions on dips can be considered [61]. Ethylene Glycol - **行情资讯**: Ethylene glycol prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [62]. - **策略观点**: In the short - term, inventory may be low, but it will accumulate in the fourth quarter, and short - term long positions on dips can be considered [63]. PTA - **行情资讯**: PTA prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [64]. - **策略观点**: The supply - demand situation is complex, and observation is recommended [65]. Para - Xylene - **行情资讯**: PX prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [66]. - **策略观点**: PX may accumulate inventory, and observation is recommended [67]. Polyethylene (PE) - **行情资讯**: PE prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [68]. - **策略观点**: PE prices may oscillate upward [69]. Polypropylene (PP) - **行情资讯**: PP prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [70]. - **策略观点**: PP is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the inventory pressure is high [71]. Agricultural Products Pigs - **行情资讯**: The pig price fluctuated slightly, with most areas seeing a decline [73]. - **策略观点**: The pig price may be weak, and short - term short positions on near - month contracts and reverse spreads are recommended [74]. Eggs - **行情资讯**: The egg price was stable with a small decline in some areas [75]. - **策略观点**: The egg price may stabilize after a small decline, and short - term observation is recommended [76]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - **行情资讯**: The price of US soybeans oscillated, and the domestic bean meal price was stable. The supply - demand situation was complex [77]. - **策略观点**: Short - term pressure exists, and in the medium - term, the market is expected to oscillate [78]. Edible Oils - **行情资讯**: The price of edible oils rebounded, and the supply - demand situation in Malaysia and Indonesia had different changes [79][80]. - **策略观点**: The price of edible oils may strengthen in the medium - term, and long positions can be considered on dips [81]. Sugar - **行情资讯**: The sugar price declined slightly, and the supply - demand situation in major producing areas is expected to change [82]. - **策略观点**: The sugar price is expected to decline in the long - term, and observation is recommended before the festival [83]. Cotton - **行情资讯**: The cotton price declined, and the supply - demand situation was complex [84][85]. - **策略观点**: The cotton price is affected by multiple factors, and short - term observation is recommended [86].

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年09月29日 (原油) 上周国际油价上涨,布伦特12合约涨4.19%，SC11合约涨0.88%。围绕俄乌冲突的俄能源设施遇袭 及美国敦促印度、土耳其停止购买俄油仍令市场对供应存在担忧,周末联合国对伊朗的"快速恢复 制裁"机制已生效,但伊朗未采取军事回应等极端手段的情况下实际出口难有持续性影响。10月5日 OPEC+会议自愿减产8国或决定进一步小幅增产,原油反弹至震荡区间上沿后进一步上行空间愈发有 限,但考虑到十一前后她缘风险仍存,建议延续期货空头叠加看涨期权的配置思路。 (责金属) 周五美国公布PCE数据符合预期,市场维持年内连续降息判断,不过美联储多位宫员讲话体观谨慎态 度。本周关注美国政府停摆的解决进展以及非农就业数据发布。贵金属中期偏强趋势未改但国庆期 间波动风险较高，建议离场观望。 (铜) 上周五铜价调整，伦铜回调到MA5日均线。四季度铜价交投节奏，情绪面继续关注10月、12月两次 议息会议前后的指标变动，同时Grasberg基本缺席两个季度的供应已经影响了平衡表，对价格震荡 重心的影响较大。技术上，伦铜显露趋势突破潜力，M ...

产业期现日报 G 品 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年9月26日 林草旗 Z0020770 | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 电池级碳酸锂均价 | 73750 | 73850 | -100.0 | -0.14% | 元/吨 | | SMM 工业级碳酸锂均价 | 71500 | 71600 | -100.0 | -0.14% | 元/吨 | | SMM电池级氢氧化锂均价 | 73980 | 74080 | -100.0 | -0.13% | 元/吨 | | SMM工业级氢氧化锂均从 | 68860 | 68960 | -100.0 | -0.15% | 元/吨 | | 中日韩CIF电池级碳酸锂 | 9.40 | 9.40 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 美元/千克 | | 中日韩CIF电池级氢氧化锂 | 9.45 | 9.40 | 0.05 | 0.53% | 美元/千克 | | SMM电碳-工碳价差 | 2250 | 2250 ...

Group 1 - The bond market is currently in a chaotic phase, influenced by weak fundamentals and strong risk appetite, with expectations of two phases in market performance for the remainder of the year [1][2] - The first phase, from mid-September to October, is expected to see a recovery in the bond market, with the 10-year government bond yield potentially peaking around 1.85% [1][25] - The second phase, from November to mid-December, may see an increase in policy expectations, with the yield center likely to rise, potentially reaching a high of around 1.9% [1][26] Group 2 - Bond yields have fluctuated, with the 10-year government bond yield rising from 1.65% at the end of June to above 1.81%, before retreating to 1.79% by September 12 [2] - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect has been observed, where rising stock market performance leads to increased bond yields, as seen with the Shanghai Composite Index rising from 3440 to above 3880 [2][4] - The macroeconomic environment shows limited changes, with GDP growth in the first half of the year at 5.3%, but subsequent months showing weaker consumption and investment data [2][3] Group 3 - Monetary policy remains moderately accommodative, with potential for further interest rate cuts following the Federal Reserve's recent rate reduction [3] - Institutional behavior is impacting the bond market, with banks and insurance companies showing varied levels of bond purchasing activity [13][14][15] - Recent regulatory changes regarding fund sales fees are expected to increase redemption pressures on bond funds, potentially leading to higher bond yields [19][20] Group 4 - Historical analysis indicates that previous "stock-bond seesaw" phases have led to significant movements in both markets, with the current phase expected to be less impactful than past occurrences [7][9] - The bond market's sensitivity to stock market movements is anticipated to weaken, with the bond market's performance becoming less reactive to stock price changes [10][26] - The overall bond market is expected to maintain a stable yield environment, with predictions of slight fluctuations in the coming months [22][25]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【有色金属周报】 美联储降息靴子落地，有色板块先扬后抑 国贸期货 有色金属研究中心 2025-9-22 分析师：方富强 从业资格证号：F3043701 投资咨询证号：Z0015300 分析师：谢灵 从业资格证号：F3040017 投资咨询证号：Z0015788 助理分析师：陈宇森 从业资格证号：F03123927 助理分析师：林静妍 从业资格证号：F03131200 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 目录 01 有色金属价格监测 02 铜（CU） 03 锌（ZN） 04 镍（NI） 不锈钢（SS) 01 PART ONE 有色金属价格监测 有色金属价格监测 有色金属收盘价格监控 | 有色金属价格监测 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 有色金属收盘价格监控 | | | | | | | 品 种 | 单 位 | 现 ...

今年以来，各地区各部门加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，我国经济运行稳中有进，高质量发展取得 新成效。 与会嘉宾将就数字金融与绿色金融融合发展在应用场景、模式创新、具体路径等方面取得的新进展和新 趋势，两者融合发展如何更好提升金融服务实体经济质效，如何借助数字化、智能化技术持续提升绿色 金融领域风险防控能力等话题展开讨论。 前三季度，我国宏观经济运行呈现哪些新趋势、新特点？当前经济运行面临哪些突出的矛盾和风险？四 季度，宏观经济政策如何持续发力、适时加力，更加有效释放内需潜力，更好地巩固经济回升向好势 头？ 9月20日至21日，由深圳市地方金融管理局、深圳市福田区人民政府、深圳大学指导，深圳香蜜湖国际 金融科技研究院与数字金融合作论坛联合主办的香蜜湖国金院2025秋季会议，即将在深举行。 会上，多位权威专家将围绕上半年宏观经济运行情况进行权威解读和深入探讨，以专业视角、深刻见解 为宏观经济发展建言献策、分享真知灼见。 中央金融工作会议强调，做好绿色金融、数字金融等五篇大文章。近年来，我国高度重视经济社会发展 全面数字化、绿色化转型，已形成以绿色贷款、绿色债券为主的多层次多元化绿色金融市场。通过数字 技术赋能，在 ...