Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoint - Rapeseed import anti-dumping preliminary ruling is established, and rapeseed meal will maintain a relatively strong pattern in the medium and long term [1][41] Summary by Directory I. Preliminary Ruling on Anti-dumping Investigation of Canadian Rapeseed Imports by China - The preliminary ruling on the anti-dumping investigation of rapeseed imports is established. On August 12, 2025, China's Ministry of Commerce issued an announcement, determining the existence of dumping and requiring importers to pay a 75.8% margin from August 14 [8][9] - There is a small probability of a turnaround between China and Canada before the final ruling. Stakeholders can submit written comments within 10 days, and Canada may send a high-level trade envoy for consultations [10] - Canadian rapeseed imports will be stagnant in the short term, and alternatives are being sought. Ports may require ships to pay the margin or return, and importers may turn to Russia, Australia, and the Middle East [11] II. Analysis of the Supply and Demand Fundamentals of Domestic Meal - Soybean meal enters the peak season of supply and demand, and its price is stable with a slight upward trend. The arrival volume of imported soybeans declined in August but increased year-on-year, oil mill soybean crush volume remained high, and soybean meal production increased in July [12][13][14] - Rapeseed meal demand is at the end of the peak season, with both bullish and bearish factors. Aquatic product demand will be concentrated in the next three months, but the annual import volume of rapeseed is insufficient, and the demand will enter the off-season after the National Day [28] III. Rapeseed Meal Maintains a Relatively Strong Pattern in the Medium and Long Term - There are uncertainties in Sino-US trade negotiations and US soybean growing weather, as well as in the final ruling of the rapeseed anti-dumping investigation and China's dependence on soybean and rapeseed imports [41] - Key future variables include the yield per unit and total output of the new US soybean season, and the follow-up of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian trade negotiations [41] - Bullish factors include uncertainties in new US soybean weather and trade negotiations, and the peak demand season of domestic soybean meal. Bearish factors include the relatively high short-term inventory after the concentrated arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans, the passing of the peak season of aquatic product demand, and the futures premium structure [43]

Report Information - Report Type: Steel Daily Review [1] - Date: August 18, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - On August 15, rebar and hot-rolled coil futures contracts 2510 explored lower and then rebounded. The steel futures are expected to experience a phased decline under pressure after the coking coal and coke futures reach their second peak, with a relatively small callback space but a potentially longer callback time compared to late July and early August, and are currently treated with a weakening oscillation trend [7][11] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review and Future Outlook 1.1 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - On August 15, most rebar spot markets and some hot-rolled coil spot markets saw price declines. The prices of rebar in Chongqing, Xi'an, Changchun, Harbin, Kunming, and Shenyang dropped by 30 - 50 yuan/ton, while those in Shanghai, Lanzhou, and Urumqi remained stable, and other major rebar markets saw price drops of 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The prices of hot-rolled coils in Wuxi, Jinan, Changsha, Wuhan, Zhengzhou, Shenyang, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Guangzhou, and Tianjin increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The daily KDJ indicator of the rebar 2510 contract continued to decline after a dead cross the previous day, and the daily KDJ indicator of the hot-rolled coil 2510 contract also showed a dead cross. The daily MACD green bars of the rebar and hot-rolled coil 2510 contracts have been expanding for three consecutive trading days [9] 1.2 Future Outlook - News: On August 9, Tangshan issued a notice requiring independent steel rolling enterprises to limit or halt production from August 16 to September 3 based on weather conditions. On August 12, some coking enterprises in Shandong received oral notices of environmental protection production restrictions, requiring coking enterprises to limit production by 30% - 50% from August 16 to early September. - Fundamentals: In the short term, the reduction in steel mill production has been disproven. The weekly output of the five major steel products has increased slightly for three consecutive weeks, the inventory accumulation of the five major steel products has accelerated, and their weekly apparent demand has continued to decline to a new low since early March. - Raw material market: Port iron ore inventories have increased slightly for two consecutive weeks, and the available days of iron ore inventory in steel mills have returned to 21 days. The output of independent coking enterprises continues to rise, continuing the steady resumption of production rhythm since mid-July. The sixth round of price increases for coke spot has been implemented, and profits have turned positive after 12 weeks. The tender price of Mongolian coal has declined, and the Dalian Commodity Exchange has taken cooling measures for coking coal futures again. - Overall: It is expected that after the coking coal and coke futures reach their second peak, the steel futures may experience a phased decline under pressure due to the less-than-expected improvement in fundamentals. Currently, the callback space seems relatively small, but the callback time is expected to be longer than that at the end of July and early August, and it is temporarily treated as a weakening oscillation trend [10][11] 2. Industry News - National Bureau of Statistics data shows that from January to July, the national real estate development investment was 535.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.0%, with the decline expanding by 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous month. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.38731 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 9.2%. The sales area of newly built commercial housing was 515.6 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 4.0%. At the end of July, the floor area of commercial housing for sale was 764.86 million square meters, a decrease of 4.62 million square meters compared to the end of June. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 572.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.5%. In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.7% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, reaching a new low since December last year. The total retail sales of consumer goods in July were 387.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, matching the previous low set in December last year. From January to July, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 2.88229 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, reaching a new low since October 2020 [12] - National Bureau of Statistics data shows that in July, China's crude steel output was 79.66 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.0%; pig iron output was 70.8 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%; steel output was 122.95 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%. From January to July, China's crude steel output was 594.47 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1%; pig iron output was 505.83 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%; steel output was 860.47 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [12] - National Bureau of Statistics data shows that in July, the floor area of newly built commercial housing in first - tier cities decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. Among them, Beijing remained flat, Shanghai increased by 0.3%, and Guangzhou and Shenzhen decreased by 0.3% and 0.6% respectively. The floor area of newly built commercial housing in second - tier cities decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with the decline expanding by 0.2 percentage points. The floor area of newly built commercial housing in third - tier cities decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, with the same decline as the previous month. In July, the floor area of second - hand housing in first - tier cities decreased by 1.0% month-on-month, with the decline expanding by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen decreased by 1.1%, 0.9%, 1.0%, and 0.9% respectively. The floor area of second - hand housing in second - and third - tier cities decreased by 0.5% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points [13] - The People's Bank of China announced on August 14 that to maintain sufficient liquidity in the banking system, it will conduct a 500 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on August 15 through a fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multiple - price winning bid method for a term of 6 months (182 days). There were 400 billion yuan of 3 - month and 50 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse repurchases maturing in the same month. After the People's Bank of China conducted a 700 - billion - yuan 3 - month outright reverse repurchase on August 8 and will conduct a 500 - billion - yuan 6 - month outright reverse repurchase on the 15th, as of the 15th, the People's Bank of China has conducted an excess renewal of outright reverse repurchases totaling 300 billion yuan in August. Wang Qing, the chief macro - analyst at Orient Jincheng, believes that the People's Bank of China's outright reverse repurchase operation helps to inject medium - term liquidity and signals the continuous intensification of quantitative monetary policy tools [13] - China Iron and Steel Association data shows that in early August, the social inventory of the five major steel products in 21 cities was 8.03 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 180,000 tons, or 2.3%; an increase of 1.44 million tons compared to the beginning of the year, or 21.9%; and a decrease of 2.18 million tons compared to the same period last year, or 21.4% [13] - According to China Iron and Steel Association statistics, in early August, key steel enterprises produced a total of 20.74 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.074 million tons, a daily output increase of 4.7% month - on - month; 19.14 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.914 million tons, a daily output increase of 3.2% month - on - month; and 20.05 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.005 million tons, a daily output decrease of 4.1% month - on - month. In early August, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 15.07 million tons, an increase of 290,000 tons compared to the previous ten - day period, or 2.0%; an increase of 2.7 million tons compared to the beginning of the year, or 21.8%; basically the same as the same ten - day period last month; a decrease of 830,000 tons compared to the same ten - day period last year, or 5.2%; and a decrease of 980,000 tons compared to the same ten - day period the year before last, or 6.1% [13] - As of August 15, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 5.67 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons compared to the same period last week, a decrease of 100,000 tons compared to the same period last month, and an increase of 310,000 tons compared to the same period last year [13] - Xinjiang Baodi Mining Co., Ltd. disclosed its semi - annual report for 2025. In the first half of 2025, the company achieved an operating income of 721 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 23.65%, while the total profit decreased by 36.19% year - on - year to 135 million yuan [13] - On August 13, 2025, the Mexican Ministry of Economy issued an announcement, making a positive final ruling on the fourth sunset review of anti - dumping duties on carbon steel pipe fittings originating from China, deciding to continue to impose an anti - dumping duty of $1.05 per kilogram on the涉案 products. The measure has been in effect since August 5, 2024, for a period of five years. The涉案 products are carbon steel pipe fittings with an outer diameter of 0.5 - 16 inches (inclusive), including elbows, tees, reducers, and caps, covering products under the TIGIE tariff number 7307.93.01 [13][14] - On August 13, 2025, the Japanese Ministry of Finance issued an announcement, deciding to initiate an anti - dumping investigation into hot - dipped galvanized steel strips and sheets originating from China and South Korea at the request of Japanese domestic manufacturers on April 28, 2025 [14] - The European Union recently stated that it hopes to pass the 19th round of sanctions against Russia next month to continue to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin over the Russia - Ukraine conflict. EU Commission spokesperson Arianna Podesta detailed the timeline for the next round of measures against Russia at a daily press conference in Brussels on Thursday but did not disclose the specific content of the plan. The EU approved a series of measures in July [14] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the social inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils in major cities, the weekly output of the five major steel products, the steel mill inventory of the five major steel products, the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils in major markets, the blast furnace and electric furnace start - up rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of the five major steel products, and the basis between Shanghai rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and the October contracts [15][17][21]

Core Viewpoint - The trade tensions between China and Canada have escalated, particularly regarding Canadian canola seed imports, with China imposing a 75.8% deposit on all Canadian companies due to identified dumping practices [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Measures - China's Ministry of Commerce announced on August 12 that it would impose a 75.8% deposit on Canadian canola seed imports, effective from August 14, citing dumping practices that harm the domestic canola industry [1]. - This is not the first action taken by China against Canada; in March, China imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian canola oil and meal, following Canada's imposition of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and steel products [3]. - On the same day as the canola seed announcement, China initiated anti-dumping investigations on Canadian pea starch and identified dumping in brominated butyl rubber, also imposing deposits [3]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The timing of the deposit is critical as it coincides with the Canadian canola harvest season, leading to a significant drop in prices, nearly 30%, and creating pressure on Canadian farmers who rely heavily on the Chinese market [5]. - Canada exports nearly 5 billion CAD (approximately 26 billion RMB) of canola to China annually, indicating the substantial economic stakes involved [5]. - The Canadian Canola Council stated that the deposit effectively closes the door to the Chinese market for Canadian canola [6]. Group 3: Diplomatic Relations - The Chinese government has previously indicated that it would reconsider its measures if Canada lifted unreasonable tariffs on Chinese products, suggesting that diplomatic solutions are still possible [6]. - Canadian Prime Minister Carney has expressed a desire for constructive dialogue with China, but has not provided specific plans to support affected farmers, raising questions about the sincerity of these efforts [3][8]. - The Canadian government is under pressure from farmers and provincial leaders to address the trade issues, especially after failing to gain favor with the U.S. while simultaneously facing challenges from China [8].

Group 1 - The U.S. announced a 90-day suspension of the 24% tariffs on Chinese goods while maintaining the existing 10% tariffs, indicating a desire to ease tensions without relinquishing leverage in negotiations [1][3] - Following the U.S. announcement, China quickly retaliated by launching an anti-dumping investigation against Canadian and Japanese imports of halogenated butyl rubber, which had been under investigation since September 2024 [3][5] - The Chinese authorities determined that the imports from Canada and Japan were indeed dumping and causing substantial harm to domestic industries, leading to the imposition of a deposit requirement for these imports starting August 14 [5][7] Group 2 - The swift response from China demonstrates adherence to anti-dumping regulations and WTO rules, targeting U.S. allies to signal that countries supporting U.S. actions against China will face consequences [7] - Japan's cooperation with the U.S. on tariff negotiations and its efforts to assist in resolving issues related to rare earth materials have been noted, indicating a strategic alignment with U.S. interests [5][7] - Canada's previous actions, including imposing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and steel products, have led to its current predicament, highlighting the interconnectedness of international trade policies and retaliatory measures [5][7]

Group 1 - The extension of the US-China tariff truce for 90 days has led to immediate retaliatory measures from China against Canada and Japan [1][3] - China imposed a temporary anti-dumping deposit of 75.8% on Canadian canola seeds, following a year-long investigation that concluded Canada engaged in dumping practices [1][3] - The canola seed industry in Canada, which exports approximately CAD 5 billion annually to China, is significantly impacted by this high deposit, leading to a drop in canola prices [3][5] Group 2 - China also targeted Japan, imposing anti-dumping measures on halogenated butyl rubber, with Canadian companies facing a maximum deposit of 40.5% and Japanese companies 30.1% [3][5] - Japan's recent cooperation with the US to limit China's strategic advantages, including reducing reliance on Chinese rare earths and restricting semiconductor exports, has contributed to its negative standing in China [3][5] - The Chinese government has indicated that countries aligning with the US against China will face consequences, as seen in the recent actions against Canada and Japan [5][8] Group 3 - In addition to Canada and Japan, China has taken retaliatory measures against the EU, specifically targeting two Lithuanian banks due to sanctions imposed by the EU on Chinese financial institutions [5][6] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce's actions against the EU are framed as a response to perceived violations of international law and damage to Chinese enterprises [6][8] - China's series of retaliatory measures signal a clear message that while negotiations with the US may continue, other nations should reconsider their alignment with US policies that harm Chinese interests [8]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around China's imposition of a 100% tariff on Canadian canola meal, which is seen as a retaliatory measure against Canada's recent tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and steel products [1][3][5] - Canada is the largest supplier of canola to China, with exports valued at CAD 4.9 billion in 2024, accounting for 67% of its canola exports, making this a critical economic issue for Canada [1][5] - The 100% tariff and a 75.8% temporary anti-dumping tax effectively block Canadian canola from the Chinese market, while China can source canola from other countries like Australia and Russia [1][7] Group 2 - Canada's actions are viewed as aligning with U.S. strategies, which has led to accusations of trade protectionism and discrimination from China, citing violations of WTO rules [3][5] - The political implications of the tariff are significant, as it exacerbates tensions between the Canadian federal government and its western provinces, which are heavily reliant on canola farming [7][9] - China's strong response is framed as a warning to other nations, particularly the U.S. and EU, indicating that those who engage in trade wars will face consequences [7][9]

Group 1 - As of August 15, 2025, Qingdao Kingway's stock price is reported at 8.74 yuan, down 1.80% from the previous trading day [1] - The trading volume on the same day was 621 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 10.36% [1] - Qingdao Kingway's main business includes the research, production, and sales of candles, cosmetics, and related chemical products, covering areas such as household light industry and cross-border trade [1] Group 2 - On August 14, the European Commission announced a preliminary anti-dumping ruling against candles originating from China, with Qingdao Kingway facing a temporary anti-dumping tax rate of 57.5% [1] - The investigation pertains to export data from October 2023 to September 2024, which may impact the company's overseas business [1] Group 3 - On August 15, the net outflow of main funds was 46.32 million yuan, with a cumulative net outflow of 58.81 million yuan over the past five days [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For rapeseed oil, the report suggests a bullish approach. Internationally, good weather in most areas of Canadian rapeseed crops boosts the prospects of a bumper harvest, while China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may affect its exports and put pressure on prices. Domestically, it's the off - season for oil consumption, with ample vegetable oil supply. However, the low operating rate of oil mills reduces the output pressure of rapeseed oil, and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter ease supply pressure. The anti - dumping measures further weaken long - term supply. The market fluctuates greatly due to the anti - dumping preliminary ruling [7][8]. - For rapeseed meal, the report recommends a bullish mindset and suggests paying attention to Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. The US 2025/26 soybean harvest area is expected to decrease, reducing production and ending stocks. Domestically, the high operating rate of oil mills and the accumulation of soybean meal inventory suppress the rapeseed meal market. But less rapeseed arrives in the near - term, and it's the peak season for aquaculture, increasing the demand for rapeseed meal. The anti - dumping measures also weaken long - term supply. However, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The market fluctuates due to the anti - dumping preliminary ruling [10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary Rapeseed Oil - Strategy: Bullish participation [7] - Market Review: This week, rapeseed oil futures rose first and then fell. The closing price of the 01 contract was 9757 yuan/ton, an increase of 196 yuan/ton from the previous week. The total open interest was 296,496 lots, an increase of 116,426 lots from last week [8][16]. - Market Outlook: International factors include good weather in Canada and China's anti - dumping measures. Domestically, it's the off - season for oil consumption, but low mill operating rates, fewer rapeseed purchases, and anti - dumping measures ease supply pressure. The market fluctuates due to the anti - dumping ruling [8]. Rapeseed Meal - Strategy: Bullish thinking, pay attention to Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations [10] - Market Review: This week, rapeseed meal futures rose first and then fell. The closing price of the 01 contract was 2546 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from the previous week. The total open interest was 448,610 lots, an increase of 12,773 lots from the previous week [11][16]. - Market Outlook: The US soybean harvest area decrease affects the market. Domestically, high mill operating rates and soybean meal inventory suppress the market, but less near - term rapeseed arrival, peak aquaculture season, and anti - dumping measures support it. However, the substitution of soybean meal weakens demand. The market fluctuates due to the anti - dumping ruling [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Open Interest**: Rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal futures both rose first and then fell. Rapeseed oil's total open interest increased by 116,426 lots to 296,496 lots, and rapeseed meal's increased by 12,773 lots to 448,610 lots [16]. - **Top 20 Net Positions**: For rapeseed oil, the top 20 net positions changed from net long (+21,321) to net short (-2,284). For rapeseed meal, it changed from net long (+22,737) to net short (-17,470) [23]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: Rapeseed oil had 3,487 registered warehouse receipts, and rapeseed meal had 9,821 [27][28]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: In Jiangsu, the rapeseed oil spot price was 9,870 yuan/ton, and the basis was +113 yuan/ton. In Jiangsu Nantong, the rapeseed meal price was 2,590 yuan/ton, and the basis was +44 yuan/ton [37][43]. - **Futures Inter - monthly Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil was +165 yuan/ton, at a medium level in recent years. The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed meal was +59 yuan/ton, also at a medium level [49]. - **Futures - Spot Ratio**: The ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal for the 01 contract was 3.83, and the average spot price ratio was 3.81 [52]. - **Price Spread between Rapeseed Oil and Other Oils/Meals**: The 01 contract spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,223 yuan/ton, with relative volatility this week. The 01 contract spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 297 yuan/ton, narrowing this week. The 01 contract spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 591 yuan/ton, and the spot spread was 490 yuan/ton as of Thursday [62][68]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation Rapeseed - **Supply - Inventory and Import Forecast**: As of August 8, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 150,000 tons. The estimated rapeseed arrivals in August, September, and October 2025 were 200,000 tons, 570,000 tons, and 430,000 tons respectively [74]. - **Supply - Import Pressing Profit**: As of August 14, the spot pressing profit of imported rapeseed was +863 yuan/ton [78]. - **Supply - Oil Mill Pressing Volume**: As of the 32nd week of 2025, the rapeseed pressing volume of major coastal oil mills was 62,000 tons, with an operating rate of 15.17% [82]. - **Supply - Monthly Import Volume**: In June 2025, China's rapeseed import volume was 184,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 69.69% and a month - on - month decrease of 150,900 tons [86]. Rapeseed Oil - **Supply - Inventory and Import Volume**: As of the end of the 32nd week of 2025, the domestic imported and pressed rapeseed oil inventory was 773,000 tons, a decrease of 1.70% from last week. In June 2025, the rapeseed oil import volume was 150,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.67% and a month - on - month increase of 39,100 tons [91]. - **Demand - Consumption and Production of Edible Vegetable Oil**: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 4.769 million tons, and the catering revenue was 470.76 billion yuan [95]. - **Demand - Weekly Contract Volume**: As of the end of the 32nd week of 2025, the domestic imported and pressed rapeseed oil contract volume was 115,000 tons, a decrease of 9.53% from last week [99]. Rapeseed Meal - **Supply - Weekly Inventory**: As of the end of the 32nd week of 2025, the domestic imported and pressed rapeseed meal inventory was 30,000 tons, an increase of 32.61% from last week [103]. - **Supply - Import Volume**: In June 2025, the rapeseed meal import volume was 270,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.17% and a month - on - month increase of 75,600 tons [107]. - **Demand - Monthly Feed Production**: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly feed production was 2.9377 million tons [111]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - The implied volatility of rapeseed meal options fluctuated up and down. As of August 15, the implied volatility was 24.73%, a slight decrease of 0.2% from the previous week, at a slightly high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [116].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that canola oil futures experienced a significant decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 9715.00 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.99% [1] - The Ministry of Commerce has preliminarily determined that imported canola seeds from Canada are subject to dumping, imposing a 75.8% deposit on Canadian companies, which introduces uncertainty in the trade policy between China and Canada [2] - Domestic canola oil inventory is at a seasonally high level, and changes in trade policies may lead traders to actively import canola oil from Russia and Dubai, potentially supplementing the supply from Canada [2] Group 2 - According to Guotai Junan Futures, the canola oil market is showing a downward trend, influenced by macroeconomic factors and the recent suspension of a 24% tariff between China and the US [3] - The increase in domestic canola oil prices has further strengthened the vegetable oil sector, while the overall inventory of major oils, including soybean and palm oil, is on the rise [3] - The market is expected to wait for a new buying point after adjustments, with a long-term bullish outlook on oil fats [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the overall USDA August supply - demand report is bullish, but domestic soybean meal inventory accumulation suppresses the rapeseed meal market. However, factors such as low near - month rapeseed arrivals, peak aquaculture season, and anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed support the market. Despite the good substitution advantage of soybean meal, the market should be treated with a bullish mindset due to increased volatility [2]. - For rapeseed oil, international factors like rainfall in Canada and anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed put pressure on prices, while domestic factors such as low oil mill operating rates, fewer third - quarter rapeseed purchases, and anti - dumping measures reduce supply pressure. The market should be mainly participated in with a bullish approach [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) is 10,064 yuan/ton, up 262 yuan; rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2,723 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; ICE rapeseed (active) is 650.7 Canadian dollars/ton, down 31.1 Canadian dollars; rapeseed (active contract) is 5,136 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (1 - 5) is 228 yuan/ton, up 61 yuan; rapeseed meal (1 - 5) is 112 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil is 282,665 lots, up 165,186 lots; rapeseed meal is 178,669 lots, down 27,971 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil is 14,214 lots, down 2,606 lots; rapeseed meal is 17,393 lots, up 15,262 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil is 0, down 3,487; rapeseed meal is 0, down 9,821 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,760 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,660 yuan/ton; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6,000 yuan/ton; fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8,840 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan; palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong is 9,380 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,090 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan [2]. - Average prices: Rapeseed oil is 9,825 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan [2]. - Import cost price of rapeseed: 4,656.83 yuan/ton, down 194.33 yuan [2]. - Oil - meal ratio: 3.73, up 0.15 [2]. - Basis of main contracts: Rapeseed oil is - 42 yuan/ton, down 94 yuan; rapeseed meal is - 63 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan [2]. - Spot price differences: Rapeseed - soybean oil is 1,090 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; rapeseed - palm oil is 500 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; soybean - rapeseed meal is 430 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast: 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; annual rapeseed production forecast is 12,378 thousand tons [2]. - Rapeseed import volume: 18.45 million tons, down 15.1 million tons [2]. - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills: 15 million tons, up 5 million tons [2]. - Weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed: 16.84%, up 0.32 percentage points [2]. - Imported rapeseed crushing profit: 455 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil: 15 million tons, up 4 million tons; rapeseed meal import volume is 27.03 million tons, up 7.56 million tons [2]. - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory: 11 million tons, up 0.35 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 3.2 million tons, up 0.5 million tons [2]. - Rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi: 54.92 million tons, down 0.2 million tons; rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 32.57 million tons, down 0.84 million tons [2]. - Weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil: 3.47 million tons, up 1.77 million tons; rapeseed meal is 2.72 million tons, down 0.15 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Feed production: 2,937.7 million tons, up 175.6 million tons; edible vegetable oil production is 476.9 million tons, up 41.8 million tons [2]. - Social consumer goods retail sales of catering: 4,707.6 billion yuan, up 129.4 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options: Rapeseed meal is 27.39%, down 1.72 percentage points; rapeseed oil is 19.15%, up 2.5 percentage points [2]. - Implied volatility of at - the - money put options: Rapeseed meal is 27.39%, down 1.71 percentage points; rapeseed oil is 19.15%, up 2.5 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility (20 - day): Rapeseed meal is 23.19%, up 2.17 percentage points; rapeseed oil is 13.9%, up 2.13 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility (60 - day): Rapeseed meal is 18.19%, up 0.9 percentage points; rapeseed oil is 12.89%, up 0.66 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On August 12, ICE rapeseed futures tumbled 4.5% after China's anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed, but prices rebounded from the intraday low [2]. - The USDA's August supply - demand report showed changes in US soybean forecasts for the 2025/26 season, with lower harvest area and slightly higher yield, and lower production and ending stocks [2].