交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-05-12燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 1、基本面：亚洲低硫燃料油市场结构维持在当前水平附近，由于现货市场买兴升温，船用燃料油现货 溢价上涨，同时，全球最大加油枢纽新加坡的商业燃料油库存降至七周低点，进口量连续第二周下降； 中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油为402.43美元/吨，基差为53元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为493.5美元/吨，基 差为190元/吨，现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：新加坡燃料油5月7日当周库存为2412.9万桶，增加40万桶；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线附近运行，20日线偏平；中性 5、主力持仓：高硫主力持仓多单，多增，偏多； ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the fuel oil market, indicating that due to increased supply of arbitrage goods and inflow of blending components, the fundamentals of the low - sulfur fuel oil market in Singapore may face greater pressure in the coming weeks. With crude oil prices falling during trading and lack of positive news, fuel oil is expected to trade at low levels. The expected trading ranges are 2800 - 2860 for FU2507 and 3310 - 3370 for LU2506 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Increased supply of arbitrage goods and blending components may pressure the low - sulfur fuel oil market in Singapore. In April, the total open interest of the near - month contract for high - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore decreased by 11.32% month - on - month to 9.37 million tons, the third consecutive monthly decline [3]. - **Basis**: The basis for Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is $51/ton, and for low - sulfur fuel oil is $165/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of April 23, Singapore's fuel oil inventory was 25.989 million barrels, unchanged [3]. - **Market Trend**: Prices are below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3]. - **Main Position**: High - sulfur main positions have shifted from short to long, and low - sulfur main positions have shifted from long to short [3]. - **Expectation**: With crude oil prices falling during trading and lack of positive news, fuel oil is expected to trade at low levels. The expected trading ranges are 2800 - 2860 for FU2507 and 3310 - 3370 for LU2506 [3]. 3.2 Multi - Short Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Not clearly stated in the report. - **Bearish Factors**: Not clearly stated in the report. - **Market Driver**: The market is driven by the combination of uncertain supply - side production cuts and neutral demand [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Futures Price Changes**: The current price of the FU main contract is 2865, up 35 (1.24%) from the previous value; the current price of the LU main contract is 3371, up 62 (1.87%) from the previous value [5]. - **Spot Price Changes**: The current price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil is $488/ton, up $7 (1.46%) from the previous value; the current price of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil is $495/ton, up $5 (1.02%) from the previous value. The current price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is $395.71/ton, up $9.32 (2.41%) from the previous value; the current price of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil is $482.5/ton, up $10 (2.12%) from the previous value [6]. 3.4 Inventory Data - **Singapore Fuel Oil Inventory**: As of April 23, the inventory was 25.989 million barrels, unchanged from the previous period. The inventory has shown fluctuations in recent months [3][7].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-04-30燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 1、基本面：亚洲低硫燃料油市场结构走弱，不过，贸易人士预计由于未来几周进入新加坡的套利船货 减少，市场将获得短期支撑；作为全球最大船加油枢纽，新加坡近期高硫燃料油库存持续攀升，因中东 地区多批船货到港；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油为423.47美元/吨，基差为146元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为497.5美元/吨，基 差为183元/吨，现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：新加坡燃料油4月23日当周库存为2598.9万桶，不变；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线偏下；偏空 利空： 行情驱动：供应端减产有 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - period: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long the spread of FU2507 - 2509 at low prices (positive spread) [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil has strengthened, but potential pressures still exist. The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures rose 0.46% to 3026 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 1.94% to 3529 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices continue to fluctuate, with many short - term uncertainties and an unclear trend, providing limited guidance for downstream FU and LU prices [1] - For fuel oil fundamentals, the previous tightness in the spot market has eased, and refinery and bunker fuel demand face negative factors. However, with the approaching summer, the terminal demand of power plants in the Middle East and Egypt will increase seasonally. Due to the shortage of natural gas, Egypt, Iran, and Iraq are expected to use more high - sulfur fuel oil to replace natural gas, bringing additional consumption increments [1] - In April, there were significant signs of increased imports of high - sulfur fuel oil in Egypt and Saudi Arabia, and more consumption increments are expected in the next few months [1] - The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil shows marginal improvement, with spot premiums, monthly spreads, and crack spreads rebounding, and the supply of arbitrage cargoes from the Western region tightening marginally. However, the remaining production capacity is still relatively abundant, and the production of refineries in Kuwait and Nigeria has recently increased [1] - The trend of low - sulfur fuel oil demand being replaced has not reversed, and it may face further pressure after the entry into force of the Mediterranean ECA in May. If the tariff conflict continues, global trade demand faces a downward risk, which will be negative for fuel oil demand, and low - sulfur fuel oil will be more sensitive [1] Group 3: Summary of Figures - The report includes figures on Singapore high - sulfur 380 fuel oil spot price, Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil spot price, Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil swap near - month contract, Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil swap near - month contract, Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil near - month spread, Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil near - month spread, fuel oil FU futures main contract closing price, fuel oil FU futures index closing price, fuel oil FU futures near - month contract closing price, fuel oil FU near - month contract spread, fuel oil FU futures main contract trading volume and open interest, fuel oil FU futures total trading volume and open interest, low - sulfur fuel oil LU futures main contract closing price, low - sulfur fuel oil LU futures index closing price, low - sulfur fuel oil LU futures near - month contract price, low - sulfur fuel oil LU futures near - month spread, low - sulfur fuel oil LU futures main contract trading volume and open interest, and low - sulfur fuel oil LU futures total trading volume and open interest [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The low - sulfur fuel oil market is expected to continue a mild upward trend in the short term, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market is partly supported by the improved demand expectation for Middle - East summer power generation, but downstream bunker fuel demand and raw material procurement demand will continue to pressure the high - sulfur market. The fuel oil market will oscillate, with FU2507 operating in the 2990 - 3030 range and LU2506 in the 3430 - 3480 range [3]. - The market is driven by the combination of uncertain supply - side production cuts and neutral demand [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For fuel oil, the fundamentals show a neutral situation, the basis indicates a bullish trend, the inventory is neutral, the price on the disk is bearish, the high - sulfur main position is bearish, the low - sulfur main position is bullish, and the overall expectation is for the fuel oil to oscillate [3]. - The prices of FU and LU futures decreased by - 1.15% and - 1.52% respectively, while the basis increased by 132.62% and 65.68% [5]. - Among the spot prices, the prices of some fuel oils decreased (e.g., - 1.42% for Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil), while others increased (e.g., 3.18% for Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil) [6]. 2. Multi - and Short - term Concerns - Bullish factors are not clearly stated, while bearish factors are also not clearly presented. The market is driven by the combination of uncertain supply - side production cuts and neutral demand [4]. 3. Fundamental Data - A Singapore trader believes the low - sulfur fuel oil market is favorable for all parties, and the short - term upward trend will continue. Although the overall inventory in Singapore is high, the supply of qualified spot goods is limited. The high - sulfur fuel oil market is partly supported by the improved demand expectation for Middle - East summer power generation, but downstream bunker fuel demand and raw material procurement demand will continue to pressure the high - sulfur market [3]. 4. Spread Data - No specific spread data analysis is provided other than the historical data graph of the high - and low - sulfur futures spread [12]. 5. Inventory Data - Singapore's fuel oil inventory on April 23 was 2598.9 million barrels, unchanged from the previous period. The historical inventory data shows fluctuations from February to April [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term contradiction in the fuel oil market is limited, and it is waiting for new catalysts. Recently, the crude oil price has been strong, with Brent rising to around $75 per barrel, enhancing the cost - side support for fuel oil, and both FU and LU have fluctuated upwards [1]. - The high - sulfur fuel oil market structure is still in the adjustment stage, with the marginal weakening of the spot premium, but there are still supporting factors. The current tight heavy oil contradiction will suppress the growth of high - sulfur fuel oil supply. In addition, with the approaching of summer, the power demand in the Middle East, Egypt and other places will have a seasonal increase, and due to the natural gas shortage, Egypt, Iran and Iraq are expected to use more high - sulfur fuel oil to replace natural gas, bringing additional consumption increments [1]. - The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure is stable in the short term and may fluctuate in the direction of crude oil. In the medium term, its market share will continue to be squeezed by desulfurization towers and clean energy, and may face further pressure after the Mediterranean ECA takes effect in May [1]. 3. Strategy Summary - **High - sulfur fuel oil**: It will fluctuate, with short - term adjustment and support at the bottom [2]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: It will fluctuate, and a medium - term bearish view is taken [2]. - **Cross - variety**: No strategy is provided [2]. - **Cross - period**: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the spread of FU2507 - 2509 at low prices [2]. - **Futures - spot**: No strategy is provided [2]. - **Options**: No strategy is provided [2]. 4. Chart Information The report provides multiple charts related to fuel oil, including Singapore high - sulfur 380 fuel oil spot price, Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil spot price, Singapore high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil swap near - month contracts, near - month spreads, and the closing prices, trading volumes and open interests of fuel oil FU and low - sulfur fuel oil LU futures contracts [3][4][6]. The data sources for these charts are mainly Flush, Steel Union and Huatai Futures Research Institute [5][8][9].