Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the changing population dynamics across various provinces in China in 2024, highlighting both growth and decline trends in different regions, influenced by economic factors and demographic shifts. Summary by Sections Population Growth Trends - In 2024, 25 provinces have reported population data, with 8 provinces showing positive growth. Notably, Guangdong ranks first in total population growth, while Zhejiang leads in mechanical growth [1][3][6]. - Some provinces that previously experienced continuous population growth, such as Jiangsu, have now reached zero growth, while others like Shaanxi, Anhui, and Fujian have rebounded [3][10]. Economic Factors Influencing Population Movement - The decline in cross-province migration is attributed to narrowing regional economic disparities and high living costs in major cities, which have reduced their attractiveness [4]. - Guangdong and Zhejiang maintain their appeal due to strong economic structures and development potential, particularly in digital economy and manufacturing [4][9]. Population Statistics - As of March 31, 2024, Guangdong's population is reported at 127.8 million, with a net increase of 740,000, while Shandong and Jiangsu show negative growth trends [6][9]. - In 2024, Shandong's natural population growth rate is -1.67‰, indicating a decline of 16,800 people, while Jiangsu's population remains stable compared to the previous year [9][10]. Demographic Changes and Aging Population - The article highlights the relationship between population changes and the aging demographic, with provinces like Jiangsu showing a significant proportion of elderly residents, impacting natural growth rates [11][18]. - The need for improving population structure through higher birth rates and attracting young talent is emphasized, as many regions face challenges due to aging populations [18][20]. Regional Variations and Strong Provincial Capitals - Some provinces, such as Shaanxi and Anhui, have seen a rebound in population due to the development of strong provincial capitals, which attract residents through diverse job opportunities and lower living costs compared to first-tier cities [14][16]. - The article notes that while some midwestern provinces are experiencing positive growth, eastern coastal regions remain the primary destinations for population inflow [17]. Policy Recommendations for Population Improvement - To address the challenges of an aging population, the article suggests enhancing public services related to childcare and healthcare, as well as implementing supportive policies for young families [20]. - Attracting young talent requires not only job opportunities but also a vibrant cultural environment that fosters a sense of belonging [20].

国家卫生健康委办公厅发布关于组织开展2025年人口高质量发展研究揭榜攻关活动的通知。 其中，完善生育支持政策体系方面，通知提出，基于多源数据和国内外比较的视角，分析当前我国生育医疗服 务、生育假期、生育保险、育儿补贴、托育服务、教育、住房、就业等支持措施实施现状及存在问题，开展政 策效果评估，研究提出进一步完善生育支持措施、加强中长期政策储备的建议。 临近午盘，贝因美直线拉升涨停，骑士乳业、孩子王、爱婴室、西部牧业、金发拉比等快速跟涨。 附全文： 国家卫生健康委办公厅关于组织开展2025年人口高质量发展研究揭榜攻关活动的通知 各省、自治区、直辖市及新疆生产建设兵团卫生健康委，有关研究单位: 为深入贯彻落实党的二十届三中全会精神和习近平总书记关于人口工作的重要论述，推动以人口高质量发展支 撑中国式现代化，国家卫生健康委决定组织开展2025年人口高质量发展研究揭榜攻关活动。有关事项通知如 下。 一、工作目标 以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，深入学习领会习近平总书记在二十届中央财经委员会第一次会 议上的重要讲话精神，贯彻落实国务院办公厅《关于加快完善生育支持政策体系推动建设生育友好型社会的若 干措施》，聚 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated nationwide multi-faceted fertility support policies expected to be introduced later this year, emphasizing that local initiatives like those in Hohhot are already in place to address declining birth rates [1][3][9]. Group 1: Local Initiatives - Hohhot has implemented significant cash subsidies for families with newborns, including a one-time payment of 10,000 yuan for first-born children, 50,000 yuan for second-born children (distributed over five years), and 100,000 yuan for third-born or more children (distributed over ten years) [3][4]. - Additional support measures include annual subsidies of 600 yuan for childcare institutions for children aged 0-3 and flexible school enrollment options for families with three or more children [3][4]. Group 2: Demographic Context - Hohhot's birth rate has declined to 5.6‰ in 2023, below the national average of 6.39‰, with a natural population growth rate of -0.76‰, indicating significant demographic challenges [4][10]. - The city's financial situation has improved, with a fiscal self-sufficiency rate of 43.6% in 2024 and a public budget revenue of 25.48 billion yuan, growing by 7.1% year-on-year [4][5]. Group 3: National Policy Outlook - The national fertility support policy is still in the drafting stage, with expectations for a more diverse approach compared to local initiatives, which may not match the scale of Hohhot's cash subsidies [5][9]. - The anticipated national annual scale for fertility subsidies is around 150 billion yuan, potentially increasing to over 300 billion yuan in subsequent years, which could stimulate consumer spending and economic growth [9][10]. Group 4: Broader Policy Measures - The national policy framework aims to create a supportive environment for childbirth through enhanced services, including social security, childcare consumption subsidies, and housing support [6][7]. - Examples from other regions include social security subsidies in Jiangsu and housing purchase incentives in Hubei, indicating a trend towards comprehensive support systems [7][11].

Group 1 - The article discusses the implementation details of the child-rearing subsidy policy in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, aimed at promoting population growth and high-quality development [1][3] - The subsidy scheme includes a one-time payment of 10,000 yuan for the first child, 50,000 yuan for the second child (1,000 yuan per year until the child is 5 years old), and 100,000 yuan for the third child or more (1,000 yuan per year until the child is 10 years old) [3] - The city will also provide a daily free "cup of milk" for mothers of newborns registered in Hohhot after March 1, 2023, for one year [3] Group 2 - Experts emphasize that while the subsidy policy is a significant step to boost birth rates, its effectiveness and long-term impact require ongoing efforts and investment [4] - Other regions, such as Jiangsu and Hubei, are also implementing similar measures to support childbirth, including social insurance subsidies and various incentives for families [4] - The article highlights that the government is increasing investments in social welfare, including child-rearing subsidies and early childhood education support, which is expected to benefit over 34 million students [7] Group 3 - The article notes that various provinces are extending maternity leave and implementing birth subsidy systems, with specific examples from Yunnan and Ningxia providing one-time and annual subsidies for families with multiple children [8] - Analysts from CITIC Securities suggest that the implementation of these birth policies could positively impact the demand for infant formula and related products, as well as improve the market outlook for companies in these sectors [8] - Recommendations from securities firms include focusing on AI and maternal-child retail chains, as well as products related to newborns and infants [9]

文：任泽平团队 人口问题既十分重要，又充满争议；既事关国家兴衰，又关系每个人的幸福。 少子化、老 龄化、不婚化、阶层固化等现象带来的挑战及应对，在学术界和国家战略层面长期存在不同观 点。人口因素是长周期、慢变量，势大力沉，是典型的"灰犀牛"，人口问题日益成为世界各国 重点关注的议题。 在经济学中，人口与资本、技术一起在供给侧决定经济潜在增长率，是引发经济增速变 动、经济结构转型的长周期变量，同时，人口的数量和结构还在需求侧影响着消费、投资等领 域。 因此，人口研究至关重要。 我们长期以来专注于人口研究，试图以科学家的精神、建设 性的态度，系统客观地对人口方面的问题进行分析研究，旨在帮助读者厘清逻辑、明晰真相、 看清未来，推动社会进步。我们长期以来建言放开生育、鼓励生育、降低生育养育教育成本， 与梁建章、黄文政等老师一起发起成立育娲人口研究这一公益研究机构。 一、中国视角：少子老龄化时代来临，人口变迁带来哪些挑战和机遇 人口周期是指人口经历老一代陆续死亡、新一代不断出生、世代更替的人口再生产过程及 其引发的经济社会变化。个体生命周期的加总成为人口周期，主要表现为生育率下滑、老龄化 加重、人力资本水平提高、人口迁 ...

文：任泽平团队 人口问题既十分重要，又充满争议；既事关国家兴衰，又关系每个人的幸福。 少子化、老 龄化、不婚化、阶层固化等现象带来的挑战及应对，在学术界和国家战略层面长期存在不同观 点。人口因素是长周期、慢变量，势大力沉，是典型的"灰犀牛"，人口问题日益成为世界各国 重点关注的议题。 在经济学中，人口与资本、技术一起在供给侧决定经济潜在增长率，是引发经济增速变 动、经济结构转型的长周期变量，同时，人口的数量和结构还在需求侧影响着消费、投资等领 域。 因此，人口研究至关重要。 我们长期以来专注于人口研究，试图以科学家的精神、建设 性的态度，系统客观地对人口方面的问题进行分析研究，旨在帮助读者厘清逻辑、明晰真相、 看清未来，推动社会进步。我们长期以来建言放开生育、鼓励生育、降低生育养育教育成本， 与梁建章、黄文政等老师一起发起成立育娲人口研究这一公益研究机构。 一、中国视角：少子老龄化时代来临，人口变迁带来哪些挑战和机遇 人口周期是指人口经历老一代陆续死亡、新一代不断出生、世代更替的人口再生产过程及 其引发的经济社会变化。个体生命周期的加总成为人口周期，主要表现为生育率下滑、老龄化 加重、人力资本水平提高、人口迁 ...