新华社北京12月18日电 《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》提 出："发挥积极财政政策作用，增强财政可持续性。"这为做好今后5年财政改革发展工作指明了方向， 提供了重要遵循。 "十四五"时期，随着我国经济实力和综合国力稳步提升，财政收支规模不断扩大，财政制度和各领 域财税支持体制机制日益完善，经济社会发展后劲和财政可持续性不断增强。未来5年，应对我国经济 社会发展面临的风险和挑战，需要保持合适的财政支出强度、发挥好积极财政政策作用，同时也对防范 化解风险、增强财政可持续性等提出新的更高要求。一方面，财政收入增长面临较多约束，传统重点税 源行业增长放缓，战略性新兴产业及数字经济等发展迅速，但对税收贡献相对较小。另一方面，财政支 出需求持续增长，促消费、扩投资、稳就业、保民生等重点领域刚性支出不减，财政收支平衡压力持续 加大。同时，重点领域还有风险隐患，确保财政经济平稳运行面临新的挑战。 下一步，增强财政可持续性，需要树牢系统观念，坚持底线思维，统筹稳增长、防风险等多重目 标，综合施策，多管齐下，推动建设稳固平衡强大的国家财政，为经济社会高质量发展提供坚实财政保 障。 第一，加强财政宏观 ...

Core Insights - The central economic work conference emphasized the goal of "stabilizing the new birth population scale," indicating a potential strengthening of fertility policies in response to demographic challenges [1][14][15] Group 1: Fertility Policies - The conference has consistently addressed fertility policies for five consecutive years, with this year's focus on specific population targets rather than just implementation strategies [1][3] - A new round of fertility support policies is set to be established, with measures including tax deductions for childcare costs and financial support for families with children under three years old [4][17] - The total number of childcare service institutions has reached 126,000, with a total capacity of 6.657 million, exceeding the target set in the 14th Five-Year Plan [4][17] Group 2: Education Resource Allocation - Changes in the birth population and demographic structure will significantly impact education, healthcare, and social welfare policies [2][19] - The conference proposed adjustments to education resource allocation, including increasing high school enrollment and expanding quality undergraduate admissions [6][20] - In 2024, the number of high school enrollments is projected to exceed 10.36 million, marking a significant increase from the previous year [21] Group 3: Fiscal Policy Adjustments - The conference highlighted the need to optimize fiscal expenditure structures, particularly in education, healthcare, and elderly care, while addressing local fiscal challenges [9][23] - Central government transfers to local governments are projected to reach 1,034.15 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting an 8.4% increase [23] - The implementation of free preschool education will cover all kindergarten children nationwide, benefiting approximately 12 million children [10][24]

Group 1 - The central economic work conference emphasizes the goal of "stabilizing the new birth population scale," indicating a potential strengthening of fertility policies in response to demographic challenges [1][2] - The introduction of various supportive policies, including free preschool education and birth subsidies, reflects a commitment to invest in human capital despite fiscal constraints [1][4] - The number of childcare institutions has reached 126,000, with a total of 6.657 million childcare spots, exceeding the target set in the 14th Five-Year Plan [4] Group 2 - The changing demographics, particularly the decline in school-age populations, necessitate adjustments in educational resource allocation, with a focus on increasing high school and quality higher education enrollment [5][6] - The Ministry of Education reports that ordinary high school enrollment has surpassed 10 million for the first time, indicating a significant increase in educational demand [7] - The central economic work conference calls for optimizing fiscal expenditure structures to enhance social welfare, particularly in education, healthcare, and elderly care [9][10] Group 3 - The central government plans to increase transfer payments to local governments by 8.4% in 2025, ensuring the sustainability of free preschool education across the country [10][11] - The implementation of long-term care insurance and expansion of rehabilitation services are crucial in addressing the needs of an aging population [12] - The focus on creating a "birth-friendly" community is essential for encouraging higher birth rates, alongside the provision of accessible childcare services [12]

Core Viewpoint - The key task for China's economic development is to optimize the fiscal expenditure structure, emphasizing investment in the livelihood sector rather than over-concentrating funds on housing and infrastructure [2][4]. Economic Growth - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with quarterly growth rates of 5.4%, 5.2%, and 4.8% respectively [1]. Fiscal Policy - The current fiscal policy should gradually shift towards increasing the proportion of final consumption in GDP from approximately 55% to 65% [2]. - The focus should be on balancing fiscal revenue and expenditure, with strict adherence to the budget approved by the National People's Congress [3]. Social Welfare - Direct financial support may be necessary, such as issuing consumption vouchers, but the effectiveness depends on ensuring funds reach those in need [4]. - Improving people's livelihoods is fundamental to economic development, and resources should be allocated based on real needs [5]. Employment and Income - Addressing income disparity and enhancing the income levels of low-income groups are critical for measuring the effectiveness of livelihood improvements [5]. - Creating more job opportunities through various channels is essential, particularly for the youth [5]. Legal Framework - Strengthening legal constraints is necessary for social governance, ensuring that enterprises comply with laws and regulations [6][8]. - The establishment of a dedicated institution for ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) standards is recommended, with a focus on legislative processes [8]. Market Dynamics - The construction of a unified national market requires a clear understanding of market dynamics, identifying surplus and shortage areas [9]. - The government should focus on combating unfair competition while protecting legitimate competition [9]. Business Vitality - Policies should concentrate resources on enterprises with market demand, particularly labor-intensive businesses, to enhance employment [10]. - Enterprises facing sales difficulties should be diagnosed, and those lacking innovation should be allowed to exit the market [10].

Group 1 - The core task for China's economic development is to optimize the fiscal expenditure structure, shifting focus from housing and infrastructure to the improvement of people's livelihoods [2][4] - The current GDP final consumption ratio is approximately 55%, with a target to increase it to 65% over the next three to five years to stimulate consumption [2] - The development philosophy should move away from a "GDP-first" mentality, emphasizing a people-centered approach to development [2] Group 2 - Fiscal policy should prioritize direct financial support to those in need, such as through targeted subsidies or consumption vouchers [4] - The relationship between economic development and improving people's livelihoods is fundamental, with a focus on addressing real needs and reducing income disparities [5] - Employment creation should be a priority, with a focus on providing more job opportunities for youth and addressing the challenges faced by low-income groups [5] Group 3 - There is a need for a balanced fiscal budget, with strict adherence to approved budgets to ensure effective implementation [3] - Local governments should tailor their fiscal policies based on specific regional employment challenges, focusing on stabilizing and expanding job opportunities [7] - Social security systems require strengthening, with an emphasis on compliance with mandatory contributions to ensure adequate coverage [7] Group 4 - The current challenges for enterprises include difficulties in sales due to insufficient demand, necessitating a focus on expanding demand as a key strategy [8] - The establishment of a unified national market requires accurate market assessments to identify surplus and shortage areas, ensuring timely policy responses [9] - The concept of "anti-involution" should focus on identifying and penalizing unfair competition while protecting legitimate competitive practices [9][10]

Group 1 - The core task for the current economic development in China is to optimize the fiscal expenditure structure, emphasizing investment in the livelihood sector rather than excessive focus on housing and infrastructure [2][3]. - The proportion of final consumption in China's GDP is currently around 55%, and there is a goal to increase this to at least 65% over the next three to five years to stimulate consumption [3][5]. - The development philosophy should shift from a "GDP-first" approach to a people-centered development model, focusing on meeting the material and cultural needs of the population [6]. Group 2 - Fiscal policy should prioritize direct financial support to citizens, such as cash transfers or consumption vouchers, while ensuring that funds reach those in need [8]. - The relationship between improving livelihoods and economic development is fundamental, with economic growth aimed at satisfying real demands of the people [9]. - The unemployment rate in urban areas was reported at 5.2% in September, indicating a slight decrease, which reflects ongoing challenges in the job market [13]. Group 3 - There is a need to address the low level of social security and the significant funding gap, with a focus on strict compliance with social insurance contributions [16]. - Fiscal investments should also be directed towards enhancing social security systems, particularly in improving grassroots medical capabilities [17]. - The current difficulties faced by enterprises include insufficient demand, which has been recognized by the central government as a key issue to address [18]. Group 4 - The construction of a unified national market requires accurate understanding of market dynamics, ensuring supply chain integrity, and addressing both surplus and shortage issues [19]. - The concept of "anti-involution" should focus on combating unfair competition, with clear definitions of what constitutes such behavior [19][20]. - Policies should concentrate resources on enterprises with market demand, particularly labor-intensive businesses, to enhance employment opportunities [20].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has significantly increased fiscal spending in key areas related to people's livelihoods, with a focus on education, healthcare, and social security, reflecting a policy direction of "investing in people" [1][2][4]. Fiscal Spending Overview - From January to July, the national general public budget expenditure reached 16,073.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [2]. - Central government expenditure was 2,332.7 billion yuan, up 8.8%, while local government expenditure was 13,741.0 billion yuan, increasing by 2.5% [2]. - Social security and employment spending grew by 9.8%, education spending by 5.7%, and healthcare spending by 5.3% during the same period [2]. Regional Spending Insights - In Beijing, education spending was 74.0 billion yuan, a growth of 7.9%, aimed at accommodating changes in school-age population and supporting various educational initiatives [3]. - In Yunnan Province, social security and employment spending reached 79.56 billion yuan, while education spending was 69.63 billion yuan, accounting for 20.4% and 17.9% of local budget expenditure, respectively [3]. Policy Initiatives - Recent policies include the implementation of a childcare subsidy system with an initial budget of approximately 90 billion yuan, and an increase of about 20 billion yuan in spending for free preschool education this fall [4]. - The Ministry of Civil Affairs and the Ministry of Finance have jointly issued guidelines for providing subsidies to elderly individuals with moderate to severe disabilities [4]. Local Government Actions - Local governments are tailoring their policies to enhance welfare, such as Fujian Province's measures to implement the national childcare subsidy system and improve healthcare facilities [5]. - In Guangxi, measures to reduce unemployment insurance fees and provide vocational training subsidies are being implemented to support employment stability [5]. Future Outlook - Experts anticipate that future fiscal spending will increasingly focus on "investing in people," with enhanced support for social welfare sectors [6]. - The central government aims to optimize fiscal spending structures to strengthen financial support for education, healthcare, and housing, thereby improving overall public welfare [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fiscal data indicates a strong commitment from the central and local governments to invest in people's livelihoods, with a focus on enhancing social welfare and public services [1][2][3] Fiscal Expenditure Overview - From January to July, the national general public budget expenditure reached 16,073.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [1] - Central government expenditure was 2,332.7 billion yuan, up 8.8%, while local government expenditure was 13,741.0 billion yuan, increasing by 2.5% [1] - Expenditure in key areas such as social security and employment grew by 9.8%, education by 5.7%, and health by 5.3% [1][2] Regional Spending Insights - In Beijing, education expenditure was 74.0 billion yuan, growing by 7.9%, driven by policies supporting early childhood education and school expansion [2] - In Yunnan, social security and employment spending reached 79.56 billion yuan, while education spending was 69.63 billion yuan, accounting for 20.4% and 17.9% of local budget expenditures, respectively [2] Policy Initiatives - Recent policies include a child-rearing subsidy program with an initial budget of approximately 90 billion yuan, and an increase of about 20 billion yuan for free preschool education this fall [2][3] - The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Civil Affairs are collaborating to implement subsidies for elderly care services for those with moderate to severe disabilities [2] Future Outlook - Experts anticipate that future fiscal spending will increasingly focus on "investing in people," with enhanced support for social welfare and public services [3][4] - The central government's higher funding share is expected to alleviate local fiscal pressures, allowing for more robust investment in education, healthcare, and housing [3][4]