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经济学家:非农报告整体未传递美联储需干预劳动力市场的信号
news flash· 2025-06-06 13:19
金十数据6月6日讯,斯巴达资本首席市场经济学家Peter Cardillo表示,本次非农数据虽略超共识预期及 我个人预测,但除时薪指标外,整体报告并未传递出美联储需干预劳动力市场的信号。事实上,0.4% 的时薪涨幅虽谈不上显著,但已足够引人注目——这直接锁定了美联储的观望立场。尽管就业市场确现 降温迹象(显然归因于贸易战引发的不确定性抑制企业招聘),但归根结底,这份报告料难引发市场大 幅波动,我只能将其归类为平庸之作。 经济学家:非农报告整体未传递美联储需干预劳动力市场的信号 ...
美联储博斯蒂克:鉴于经济“健康”,美联储有时间观察不确定性如何解决。
news flash· 2025-06-03 14:05
美联储博斯蒂克:鉴于经济"健康",美联储有时间观察不确定性如何解决。 ...
宝城期货国债期货早报-20250516
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-16 02:06
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term view of treasury bond futures is to fluctuate within a range. After the central bank's interest rate cut and reserve requirement ratio cut, it is necessary to wait for data to verify the effect, and the possibility of further interest rate cuts in the short term is low. The upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient, but due to the anchoring effect of policy interest rates, the upward space of treasury bond yields is limited, so is the downward space of treasury bond futures. Overall, the upward and downward spaces of treasury bond futures are limited in the short term, mainly in a consolidation phase. [4] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2506 variety, the short - term view is "fluctuation", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", the intraday view is "fluctuation with a weak bias", and the reference view is "range - bound fluctuation". The core logic is that after the interest rate cut expectation is fulfilled, it is mainly in a short - term consolidation phase. [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is "fluctuation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", and the reference view is "range - bound fluctuation". The core logic is that after the central bank's interest rate cut and reserve requirement ratio cut, it is necessary to wait for data to verify the effect, and the possibility of further interest rate cuts in the short term is low, so the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient. However, due to the anchoring effect of policy interest rates, the upward space of treasury bond yields is limited, and the downward space of treasury bond futures is also limited. In the short term, the upward and downward spaces of treasury bond futures are limited, mainly in a consolidation phase. Follow - up attention should be paid to external factors such as tariffs and the Fed, as well as domestic macro - economic indicators. [4]
美联储主席鲍威尔将于五分钟后在Thomas Laubach研究会议上致开幕词。
news flash· 2025-05-15 12:36
美联储主席鲍威尔将于五分钟后在Thomas Laubach研究会议上致开幕词。 ...
美联储古尔斯比:美联储等待了解关税影响,数据仍显嘈杂
news flash· 2025-05-14 10:09
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is awaiting more data to understand the impact of rising import tariffs on inflation and the economy, as current consumer inflation data appears to be mixed [1] Group 1 - Goolsbee from the Federal Reserve indicated that the mild consumer inflation data for April does not necessarily reflect the effects of increased import tariffs [1] - The Federal Reserve is trying to discern the underlying trends amidst the "noise" in the data [1] - There is a need for more comprehensive data to accurately assess price movements and economic direction [1]
特朗普宣布关税的4月美国通胀降低至2.3%
news flash· 2025-05-13 12:36
特朗普宣布关税的4月美国通胀降低至2.3% 金十数据5月13日讯,今年4月,也就是特朗普对全球征收关税的当月,美国通胀率降至2.3%,分析师 预期维持在3月份2.4%的水平。尽管特朗普已经削减了他在4月2日宣布的许多关税,但经济学家警告 称,进口关税的大部分影响尚未显现,美联储官员预计价格压力将进一步上升。特朗普向鲍威尔施压, 要求其降息并在上周补充说,与美联储主席打交道就像"对牛弹琴"。美联储青睐的通胀目标不是CPI, 而是PCE。3月份,PCE降至2.3%,但仍高于美联储2%的目标。 ...