Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Neutral [2] - Silver: Neutral [2] - Copper: Neutral [2] - Zinc: Bearish [2] - Lead: Bullish [2] - Tin: Neutral [2] - Aluminum: Neutral [2] - Alumina: Bearish [2] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Neutral [2] - Nickel: Neutral [2] - Stainless Steel: Neutral [2] Core Views of the Report - Gold: The FOMC meeting outcomes were in line with expectations [2]. - Silver: Expected to experience oscillatory adjustments [2]. - Copper: Decrease in warrant inventories supports prices [2]. - Zinc: Likely to perform weakly [2]. - Lead: With marginal improvement in consumption, prices are expected to oscillate strongly [2]. - Tin: Expected to oscillate within a range [2]. - Aluminum: Expected to oscillate within a range [2]. - Alumina: Likely to perform weakly [2]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Expected to follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Nickel: With smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations in play, nickel prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [2]. - Stainless Steel: With short - term supply - demand and cost factors in conflict, steel prices are expected to oscillate [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price and Trading Volume**: For gold, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 827.50 with a daily increase of 0.41%, and the night - session closing price was 838.26 with a night - session increase of 1.02%. For silver, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 9940 with a daily increase of 1.33%, and the night - session closing price was 10204.00 with a night - session increase of 2.68% [5]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai gold inventory increased by 999 kg to 57429 kg, while Shanghai silver inventory decreased by 44080 kg to 1159443 kg [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The leaders of China and the US had a phone call, and Trump planned to meet with Chinese leaders during the APEC meeting and visit China early next year [6]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity was 0, and silver trend intensity was 1 [9]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 79850 with a daily increase of 0.34%, and the night - session closing price was 80080 with a night - session increase of 0.29% [11]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai copper inventory decreased by 631 tons to 31838 tons, and LME copper inventory decreased by 1225 tons to 147650 tons [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Panama planned to negotiate with First Quantum Minerals on the resumption of the CP copper mine, and China's copper production in September was expected to decline [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity was 0 [13]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22040 with a decrease of 0.02%, and the LME zinc 3M electronic - disk closing price was 2898.5 with a decrease of 0.50% [14]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai zinc inventory decreased by 1710 tons to 52531 tons, and LME zinc inventory decreased by 1000 tons to 47825 tons [14]. - **News**: Shanghai optimized and adjusted the property tax policy, exempting the first - home from property tax [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity was - 1 [16]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17180 with an increase of 0.20%, and the LME lead 3M electronic - disk closing price was 2003 with a decrease of 0.05% [17]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai lead inventory decreased by 2086 tons to 47289 tons, and LME lead inventory decreased by 2375 tons to 220300 tons [17]. - **News**: Fed Kashkari thought two more interest rate cuts this year were appropriate [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity was 0 [17]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 268770 with a decrease of 0.12%, and the LME tin 3M electronic - disk closing price was 34220 with an increase of 1.39% [20]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai tin inventory decreased by 356 tons to 6558 tons, and LME tin inventory decreased by 140 tons to 2505 tons [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to the gold and silver section, including the China - US leaders' phone call and other events [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity was 0 [22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20795, and the closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 2953 [23]. - **Inventory**: Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory remained at 63.60 million tons, and Australian alumina FOB price decreased by 5 dollars/ton to 320 dollars/ton [23]. - **Comprehensive News**: New Fed governor Milan planned to continue interest rate cuts in the next few months [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum trend intensity was 0, alumina trend intensity was - 1, and cast aluminum alloy trend intensity was 0 [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 121500, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12860 [26]. - **Industry News**: An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial park suspended all EF production lines due to long - term losses, and Indonesia planned to shorten the mining quota period [26][27]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel trend intensity was 0, and stainless - steel trend intensity was 0 [31].

格隆汇9月15日｜高盛首席美国经济学家David Mericle表示， 9月FOMC会议的关键问题是，委员会是否 会暗示这可能是连续降息的第一步。我们预计声明将承认劳动力市场走软，但预计不会改变政策指引， 也不会默许10月份的降息。 ...

美联储延续每年召开 8 次会议的传统安排。 2027年会议时间安排如下： 1月26日-27日 3月16日-17日 4 月27日-28日 6月8日-9日 7月27日-28日 9月14日-15日 10月26日-27日 12月7日-8日 2028年会议时间安排： 1月25日-26日 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1: Silver Futures Market - The total silver futures warehouse receipts reported by the Shanghai Futures Exchange on August 11 amounted to 1,151,962 kilograms, with a decrease of 6,425 kilograms compared to the previous day [1][4] - The main silver futures contract opened at 9,260 yuan per kilogram, reached a high of 9,293 yuan, a low of 9,192 yuan, and closed at 9,210 yuan, reflecting a decline of 0.72% [1] Group 2: U.S. Labor Market and Economic Indicators - Following the Federal Reserve's July meeting, the labor market has shown significant changes, with July non-farm employment increasing by only 73,000, well below the market expectation of 104,000 [2] - The downward revision of the previous two months' employment data by a total of 258,000 marks the largest adjustment since 1979, leading to a three-month moving average employment increase of only 35,000 [2] - The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2%, which remains low and aligns with expectations [2] - The upcoming Jackson Hole conference (August 21-23) is anticipated to be a critical window for Fed Chair Powell to adjust forward guidance based on the labor market data [2] Group 3: U.S. Treasury Yield Movements - Following the non-farm data release, the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields fell by over 20 basis points and 10 basis points, respectively, indicating a market re-evaluation of policy expectations after the recent hawkish FOMC meeting [3] - The ability of U.S. Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year yield, to maintain an upward trend will depend on the upcoming CPI data on August 12 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Harker indicated that more data needs to be released before the September FOMC meeting [1] Group 1 - Harker emphasized the importance of upcoming data in shaping monetary policy decisions [1] - The statement suggests that the Fed is closely monitoring economic indicators ahead of the meeting [1] - This indicates potential volatility in financial markets as investors await new information [1]

格隆汇7月30日丨鉴于市场对美联储政策声明的高度期待，北京时间02:00之后，大盘可能会出现剧烈波 动。高盛指出，投资者应密切留意地区性银行板块。高盛衍生品研究主管John Marshall写道："我们观 察到，自2023年以来，美国银行类ETF（KBE、KRE）在FOMC会议当天的波动幅度异常显著。"数据 显示，标普地区银行ETF（KRE）在过去两年的美联储议息日中，平均单日波动达2.5%。Marshall指 出，"KRE在今日决议公布后也可能出现大幅波动。尽管美国金融股自4月低点以来已有一波反弹，但我 们发现地区性银行依然未能跟上其与宏观资产之间的正常联动。我们注意到，在FOMC会议前，KRE目 前的估值较其正常水平存在14%的折价。" ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting commenced as scheduled on Tuesday morning at 9 AM local time [1] Group 1 - The FOMC meeting is a key event for monetary policy discussions and decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of U.S. retail sales data is weak, with slight adjustments in market pricing for Federal Reserve rate cuts by the end of the year [1] Group 1: Retail Sales Data - The market pricing for Federal Reserve rate cuts was initially set at 49 basis points before the release of May retail sales data, which changed slightly to 48.5 basis points post-release [1] - The overall retail sales report showed weakness, but the control group, which is considered the best indicator of consumer conditions, performed slightly better than expected, with upward revisions to previous values [1] - The data series is currently difficult to interpret due to a significant increase in sales in March driven by tariff concerns, followed by two consecutive months of decline [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has announced that the FOMC meeting is scheduled to begin on Wednesday at 9 AM [1] Group 1 - The FOMC meeting is a key event for the financial markets as it may influence monetary policy decisions [1]