Economic Projections - The projected change in real GDP for 2025 is 1.7%, increasing to 2.3% in 2026, and stabilizing at 2.0% in 2027 and 1.9% in 2028, with a long-term average of 1.8%[6] - The unemployment rate is expected to decrease from 4.5% in 2025 to 4.2% by 2028, maintaining a long-term rate of 4.2%[6] - PCE inflation is projected to decline from 2.9% in 2025 to 2.0% by 2028, with a long-term target of 2.0%[6] Federal Funds Rate - The Federal funds rate is projected to be 3.6% in 2025, decreasing to 3.1% by 2027 and stabilizing at 3.0% in the long run[6] - The September projection for the Federal funds rate was consistent with the current projections, indicating stability in monetary policy expectations[6] Market Expectations - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 22.1% probability of the Federal funds rate being between 325-350 basis points by January 2026, with probabilities increasing for subsequent meetings[11] - By March 2026, the probability of the rate being between 350-375 basis points rises to 52.0%[11] Inflation and Economic Stability - Core PCE inflation is projected to decrease from 3.0% in 2025 to 2.0% by 2028, aligning with the long-term inflation target[6] - The projections suggest a gradual stabilization of inflation rates, contributing to overall economic stability[6]

来源 | 地平线全球策略 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 作为年内的最后一个重要宏观事件，我们对九大海外投行的观点做了最全集合整理，在此供各位读者对比使用： 01 Barclays 新一轮《经济预测摘要》（SEP）预计对经济前景的调整不大，中位数点阵图可能显示 2026 年仅有一次 25 个基点的降息、2027 年一次，2028 年不变。长期利率点预计仍维持在 3.0%。 在新闻发布会上，预计鲍威尔将强化"若劳动力市场未出现突然恶化，1 月会议很可能暂停降息"的信息，并提 及 FOMC 在未来政策路径上依然存在明显分歧。 维持基准判断：FOMC 将在 2026 年 3 月和 6 月各降息 25 个基点，此前需观察到由关税推动的价格上涨在环 比层面见顶，并对通胀回归 2%目标建立信心。风险倾向于降息被进一步推迟。无论新的 FOMC 主席是谁，反 应函数预计变化不大。 02 BNP Paribas 预计 FOMC 下周将下调政策利率 25 个基点，但鲍威尔可能在记者会上明显提高进一步宽松的门槛，表明 以"风险管理"为名的预防性降息暂告一段落。同时预计 IORB 利率将出现技术性额外下调 5 个基点。 判断 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations, with recent price movements indicating a potential for both upward and downward trends, influenced by various economic factors and geopolitical risks [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - On December 5, gold prices initially rose to around $4260 but then fell sharply to approximately $4190, resulting in a daily decline of about $70, closing at $4197.83, down 0.21% for the day and 0.74% for the week [1]. - The current gold market is characterized by a solid support base, but lacks new positive drivers, leading to expectations of short-term price fluctuations [2]. Group 2: Economic Influences - Goldman Sachs indicates a high probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, which, along with geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases, supports a long-term bullish outlook for gold [2]. - Citigroup highlights the "long tail effect" of geopolitical risks and ongoing central bank gold purchases as factors providing downside protection for gold prices, with a long-term target of $4500 [2]. Group 3: Price Projections - The market is currently in a consolidation phase after a strong $200 rally, with key resistance at $4220 and support around $4100 [3]. - If gold prices can stabilize above $4220, there is potential to test previous highs near $4264; however, if prices fall below $4185, the next support level to watch is around $4163 [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the energy and chemical (bottle chips) sector is "oscillation" [1] 2) Core View of the Report - The short - term price of bottle chips will fluctuate with raw materials, and the reference range for the main contract is 5600 - 5780 yuan/ton. A bullish trading strategy is recommended [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday night, the main price of bottle chips dropped by 20 yuan to 5640 yuan/ton. The price of East China water - grade bottle chips fell by 30 yuan to 5700 yuan/ton, and that in South China dropped by 30 yuan to 5740 yuan/ton. Long - position holdings decreased by 679 lots to 5.13 million lots, and short - position holdings decreased by 1850 lots to 4.79 million lots [1] Important Information - Supply and cost - profit: Domestic polyester bottle chip production was 33.22 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.08 million tons. The weekly average capacity utilization rate was 72.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1%. The production cost was 5295 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 23 yuan/ton. The weekly production gross profit was - 154 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/ton [1] - In October 2025, China's polyester bottle chip exports were 52.31 million tons, an increase of 5.53 million tons from the previous month. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 533.21 million tons [1] - Concerns about geopolitical instability and Western holiday - induced trading slump led to a slight increase in international oil prices. NYMEX crude futures were closed for the Western Thanksgiving holiday, and ICE Brent crude futures 01 contract rose 0.21 dollars/barrel to 63.34 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 0.33%. China INE crude futures 2601 contract rose 2.3 yuan to 445.1 yuan/ton and 6.5 yuan to 451.6 yuan/ton at night [1] - The end of the US government shutdown, hawkish remarks from Fed officials, and uncertainties about the December FOMC meeting suppressed the temporarily improved market sentiment [1] Market Logic - Last week, the supply of bottle chips changed little, and downstream factories mainly replenished inventory for rigid demand. The expected commissioning of new plants had little impact on the market. Cost support was average, and downstream demand remained for just - in - time replenishment. The increase in bottle chip exports in October and the relaxation of Indian policies were beneficial to polyester products, but had limited impact on bottle chips [1] Trading Strategy - A bullish trading strategy is recommended [1]

美联储理事米兰认为，CPI数据要等到下次FOMC会议之后才会公布。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Milan indicates that the November CPI data will be released after the next FOMC meeting [1] Group 1 - The timing of the November CPI data release is significant as it will occur post the upcoming FOMC meeting [1]

Happy Friday, traders. Welcome to our weekly market wrap, where we take a look back at these last five trading days with a focus on the market news, economic data, and headlines that had the most impact on gold prices and other key correlated assets—and may continue to in the future. Here’s what you need to know: Gold surged above $4,200/oz this week despite Friday’s sharp sell-off, marking its first-ever close at that level. Market anxiety deepened over the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and renewed ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Neutral [2] - Silver: Neutral [2] - Copper: Neutral [2] - Zinc: Bearish [2] - Lead: Bullish [2] - Tin: Neutral [2] - Aluminum: Neutral [2] - Alumina: Bearish [2] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Neutral [2] - Nickel: Neutral [2] - Stainless Steel: Neutral [2] Core Views of the Report - Gold: The FOMC meeting outcomes were in line with expectations [2]. - Silver: Expected to experience oscillatory adjustments [2]. - Copper: Decrease in warrant inventories supports prices [2]. - Zinc: Likely to perform weakly [2]. - Lead: With marginal improvement in consumption, prices are expected to oscillate strongly [2]. - Tin: Expected to oscillate within a range [2]. - Aluminum: Expected to oscillate within a range [2]. - Alumina: Likely to perform weakly [2]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Expected to follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Nickel: With smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations in play, nickel prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [2]. - Stainless Steel: With short - term supply - demand and cost factors in conflict, steel prices are expected to oscillate [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price and Trading Volume**: For gold, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 827.50 with a daily increase of 0.41%, and the night - session closing price was 838.26 with a night - session increase of 1.02%. For silver, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 9940 with a daily increase of 1.33%, and the night - session closing price was 10204.00 with a night - session increase of 2.68% [5]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai gold inventory increased by 999 kg to 57429 kg, while Shanghai silver inventory decreased by 44080 kg to 1159443 kg [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The leaders of China and the US had a phone call, and Trump planned to meet with Chinese leaders during the APEC meeting and visit China early next year [6]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity was 0, and silver trend intensity was 1 [9]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 79850 with a daily increase of 0.34%, and the night - session closing price was 80080 with a night - session increase of 0.29% [11]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai copper inventory decreased by 631 tons to 31838 tons, and LME copper inventory decreased by 1225 tons to 147650 tons [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Panama planned to negotiate with First Quantum Minerals on the resumption of the CP copper mine, and China's copper production in September was expected to decline [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity was 0 [13]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22040 with a decrease of 0.02%, and the LME zinc 3M electronic - disk closing price was 2898.5 with a decrease of 0.50% [14]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai zinc inventory decreased by 1710 tons to 52531 tons, and LME zinc inventory decreased by 1000 tons to 47825 tons [14]. - **News**: Shanghai optimized and adjusted the property tax policy, exempting the first - home from property tax [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity was - 1 [16]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17180 with an increase of 0.20%, and the LME lead 3M electronic - disk closing price was 2003 with a decrease of 0.05% [17]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai lead inventory decreased by 2086 tons to 47289 tons, and LME lead inventory decreased by 2375 tons to 220300 tons [17]. - **News**: Fed Kashkari thought two more interest rate cuts this year were appropriate [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity was 0 [17]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 268770 with a decrease of 0.12%, and the LME tin 3M electronic - disk closing price was 34220 with an increase of 1.39% [20]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai tin inventory decreased by 356 tons to 6558 tons, and LME tin inventory decreased by 140 tons to 2505 tons [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to the gold and silver section, including the China - US leaders' phone call and other events [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity was 0 [22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20795, and the closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 2953 [23]. - **Inventory**: Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory remained at 63.60 million tons, and Australian alumina FOB price decreased by 5 dollars/ton to 320 dollars/ton [23]. - **Comprehensive News**: New Fed governor Milan planned to continue interest rate cuts in the next few months [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum trend intensity was 0, alumina trend intensity was - 1, and cast aluminum alloy trend intensity was 0 [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 121500, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12860 [26]. - **Industry News**: An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial park suspended all EF production lines due to long - term losses, and Indonesia planned to shorten the mining quota period [26][27]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel trend intensity was 0, and stainless - steel trend intensity was 0 [31].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs' Chief U.S. Economist David Mericle indicates that the key issue for the September FOMC meeting is whether the committee will suggest that this could be the first step towards consecutive rate cuts [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - Economic Outlook - The statement is expected to acknowledge a softening labor market [1] - It is anticipated that there will be no change in policy guidance [1] - The committee is not expected to endorse a rate cut in October [1]

Core Points - The Federal Reserve continues its tradition of holding eight meetings annually [1] Schedule Summary - The meeting schedule for 2027 is as follows: - January 26-27 - March 16-17 - April 27-28 - June 8-9 - July 27-28 - September 14-15 - October 26-27 - December 7-8 [1] - The meeting schedule for 2028 starts on January 25-26 [1]