投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 6 月 27 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 需求韧性尚可，矿价震荡走高 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 观点参考 观点参考 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局有所变化，钢厂生产积极，矿石终端消耗持续回升，需求韧性表现尚可，给予矿 价强支撑，关注持续性。同时，财年末矿商冲量积极，港口到货和矿商发运均大幅回升，双双升至年 内高位，相应的内矿供应也在恢复，矿石供应压力依然偏大。综上，需求韧性尚可叠加市场 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar oscillated with a daily increase of 0.10%, and the volume and open interest expanded. The supply of rebar continued to rise, while the demand was weakly stable. The fundamentals remained seasonally weak, and steel prices were under pressure. However, the inventory inflection point was yet to appear, and the real - world contradictions were limited. It is expected that steel prices will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to demand changes [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil rebounded from the bottom, with a daily increase of 0.39%, and the volume increased while the open interest remained stable. The supply of hot - rolled coil was stable at a high level, while the demand weakened. The fundamental contradictions accumulated, and the price of hot - rolled coil continued to be under pressure and oscillated at a low level. Attention should be paid to the risk of tariffs after the "exemption period" ends [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated higher, with a daily increase of 0.64%, and the volume increased while the open interest decreased. The demand for iron ore showed some resilience, supporting the ore price. However, the supply remained at a high level, and the demand growth space was limited. The supply - demand pattern of iron ore did not improve substantially, and the ore price continued to be under pressure and oscillated at a low level. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - In May 2025, the number of new global shipbuilding orders was 73, a decrease of 46 from April 2025. The corrected total tonnage decreased by 63.85% month - on - month and 54.71% year - on - year. Chinese shipyards received the most orders, followed by South Korea [6]. - The third batch of consumer goods trade - in funds will be issued in July 2025. The relevant departments will coordinate to ensure the orderly implementation of the consumer goods trade - in policy throughout the year [7]. - The Eurasian Economic Commission decided to continue imposing a 15.50% anti - dumping duty on seamless steel pipes originating from China until June 23, 2030. The announcement will take effect on July 24, 2025 [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,030, 3,160, and 3,190 respectively, with price changes of - 10, - 20, and - 6. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,180, 3,100, and 3,218 respectively, with no price changes. The price of Tangshan steel billet was 2,910 with no change, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,100 with a - 10 change. The coil - rebar price difference was 150, and the rebar - scrap price difference was 930 [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 702 with a + 2 change, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 697 with no change. The sea freight from Australia was 8.78, and from Brazil was 22.68. The SGX swap price (current month) was 94.30, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 92.75 [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 2,973, with a 0.10% increase, the highest price was 2,977, the lowest price was 2,952, the trading volume was 1,377,892 with an increase of 16,628, and the open interest was 2,191,778 with an increase of 19,178 [11]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,103, with a 0.39% increase, the highest price was 3,104, the lowest price was 3,080, the trading volume was 552,939 with an increase of 19,514, and the open interest was 1,510,669 with an increase of 263 [11]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 705.5, with a 0.64% increase, the highest price was 707.5, the lowest price was 698.0, the trading volume was 326,475 with an increase of 10,602, and the open interest was 654,225 with a decrease of 17,723 [11]. Related Charts - The report presents various charts related to steel and iron ore inventories, including weekly changes and total inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coil, and inventories of iron ore at ports, steel mills, and domestic mines [13][18][28] - Charts also show the production situation of steel mills, such as the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and profitability of 247 sample steel mills, as well as the operating rate of independent electric furnaces and the profit - loss situation of independent electric arc furnace steel mills [28][31][35] Market Outlook - For rebar, the supply - demand pattern changed little. The weekly output increased by 5.66 tons, and the demand was weakly stable. The fundamentals remained seasonally weak, and steel prices were expected to continue to oscillate [36]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern changed. The weekly output increased by 1.79 tons, and the demand weakened. The price was under pressure and oscillated at a low level, and attention should be paid to the tariff risk after the "exemption period" ends [36]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern changed. The terminal consumption of ore increased slightly, but the supply remained at a high level. The ore price was under pressure and oscillated at a low level, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [37]

宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 6 月 26 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 基本面未改善，矿价低位震荡 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 铁矿石基本面弱势运行，库存持续累库，钢厂有所提产，矿石终端消耗迎来回升，需求韧性表现 尚可，给予矿价支撑，但淡季钢市难以承接持续增产，空间有限。相反，财年末矿商冲量积极，港口 到货和矿商发运均大幅回升，双双升至年内高位，相应的内矿供应也在恢复，矿石供应居高不下。综 上，矿石需求韧性表现尚可，给予矿价支撑，但供应维持高位，且需求增量空间有限，矿石供需格局 并未实质性好转，矿价继续承压、低位震荡运行，关注成材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） ...

Group 1: Iron Ore Market Overview - Recent spot transactions for iron ore have been weak, with the basis continuing to narrow, and the overall market maintaining a fluctuating pattern [1] - The overall supply of iron ore is gradually recovering, with significant support from new production capacity projects coming online [3] Group 2: Global Manufacturing and Economic Indicators - Global manufacturing is showing weak recovery, with JPMorgan's global manufacturing PMI at 49.6%, down 0.2 percentage points month-on-month, remaining in contraction territory for the second consecutive month [2] - China's official manufacturing PMI increased by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5%, indicating a weak recovery [2] Group 3: Steel Production and Market Dynamics - Steel mills are actively squeezing coking coal profits, leading to a fourth round of price reductions for coking coal, which has improved the profitability of steel mills [4] - The operating rate of 247 steel mills has increased by 0.41 percentage points to 83.82%, with daily molten iron production at 2.4218 million tons, showing resilience despite the seasonal downturn [4] Group 4: Port Inventory Trends - Iron ore port inventory has been decreasing, with a total drop of 389,800 tons to 138.9416 million tons as of June 20, while steel mills' imported ore inventory increased by 1.3756 million tons to 89.3624 million tons [5] - The supply-demand balance for iron ore is expected to weaken in July, with port inventories likely to accumulate slightly, potentially reaching 150 million tons in the second half of the year [5]

宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 6 月 25 日） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 供需格局迎变化，矿价延续震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局有所变化，钢厂生产积极，矿石终端消耗再度回升，需求韧性表现尚可，给予矿 价支撑，但淡季增量空间受限，利好效应不强。相反，财年末矿商冲量积极，港口到货和矿商发运均 大幅回升，双双升至年内高位，相应的内矿供应也在恢复，矿石供应居高不下。综上，矿石需求韧性 表现尚可 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 6 月 24 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 供应居高不下，矿价承压运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局迎来变化，淡季钢厂提产，矿石终端消耗迎来回升，需求韧性表现尚可，给予矿 价支撑，但钢市难以承接大幅提产，增量空间受限。同时，港口到货和矿商发运均大幅回升，双双升 至年内高位，多因财年末矿商冲量积极所致，而内矿供应也在恢复，矿石供应维持高位。目前来看， 得益于矿石 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 6 月 23 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 需求韧性尚可，矿价震荡回升 | 说明： 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局迎改善，钢厂再度提产，矿石终端消耗回升，需求韧性表现尚可，给予矿价支撑， 但淡季钢市难以承接大幅提产，增量空间有限。同时，港口到货和矿商发运有所下降，但财年末矿商 冲量相对积极，按船期推算后续到货重回高位，而内矿供应在恢复，矿石供应压力依然偏大。目前来 看，得益于矿石需求回升，矿石基本面有所改善，但供应维持高位，且需求向好难持续，供需格局易 转弱，预计矿价维持震荡运行态势，关注成 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 6 月 20 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局有所变化，淡季钢厂有所提产，矿石终端消耗再度回升，需求韧性表现尚可，增 量空间待跟踪。同时，港口到货和矿商发运均迎来下降，但财年末矿商冲量积极，近期发运维持年内 高位，按船期推算后续到货将重回高位，矿石供应压力偏大。目前来看，矿石需求韧性尚可，而供应 维持高位，供需双强局面下矿石基本面平稳运行，预计矿价延续震荡运行态势，关注成材表现情况。 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA20 一线压力 | 供需格局平稳，矿价延续震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为 ...

宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 6 月 19 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA20 一线压力 | 供需格局走弱，矿价偏弱震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局偏弱运行，钢厂生产趋弱，矿石终端消耗弱势下行，且淡季仍有减量空间，需求 弱势格局未变。相反，矿石供应维持高位，尽管港口到货和矿商发运均有所下降，但财年末矿商有所 冲量，近期发运均位于年内高位，按船期推算后续到货仍将回升。总之，供强需弱格局未变，铁矿石 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 6 月 17 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA20 一线压力 | 供需格局走弱，矿价偏弱震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石基本面有所走弱，淡季钢厂生产趋弱，矿石终端消耗高位回落，且后续存有减量空间，需 求弱势格局延续。同时，港口到货再度回落，而海外矿商发运环比减量，但依旧处于年内高位，按船 期推算后续到货再度回升，海外矿石供应延续高位，相应的内矿供应弱稳运行，矿石供应压力未缓解。 综上， ...