Core Viewpoint - The U.S. soybean exporters are likely to face significant challenges this year as Chinese companies have largely turned to Brazil for their soybean purchases, potentially resulting in the U.S. missing out on billions in sales opportunities [1][10]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - Chinese importers have secured approximately 8 million tons of soybeans for September, all sourced from South America, primarily Brazil [3]. - By October, Chinese buyers are expected to have contracted around 4 million tons from South America, accounting for half of their monthly demand [3]. - The ongoing stalemate in U.S.-China trade negotiations, with tariffs still in place, is a critical factor preventing U.S. soybeans from entering the Chinese market during the crucial sales period from September to January [3][5]. Group 2: Tariff Impact - The current tariff on U.S. soybeans is 23%, which significantly diminishes their competitiveness in the Chinese market [5]. - Last year, China imported approximately 105 million tons of soybeans, with 22.13 million tons coming from the U.S., valued at around $12 billion [5]. - Without a reduction in tariffs, U.S. soybeans will struggle to compete on price, despite being cheaper by about $40 per ton than Brazilian soybeans before tariffs are applied [6]. Group 3: Market Shifts - If a tariff agreement is reached by November, there may be a chance for China to resume U.S. soybean purchases, extending the export window for the U.S. [8]. - However, if no agreement is made, U.S. soybean farmers may face severe losses, as Chinese companies have recently built up substantial inventories, reducing immediate demand for U.S. soybeans [8][10]. - The prolonged trade negotiations signal a shift in the competitive landscape, with Brazil increasingly becoming the primary supplier of soybeans to China, diminishing the U.S.'s market share [10].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No specific industry-wide investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Rubber: With stronger raw material prices, improved demand expectations, and positive macro - factors, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [1]. - Gold: Short - term rebound, but medium - term outlook is still bearish and oscillating. Attention should be paid to the inverse relationship between the US dollar and gold [2]. - Crude Oil: Expected to oscillate weakly. The outcome of the US - Russia negotiation on August 15 should be watched [4]. - PTA: Follows the crude oil trend and oscillates weakly due to supply pressure and uncertain downstream demand [5]. - Pig: Short - term over - optimism is not advisable, while long - term long positions in the LH2511 contract can be considered. Farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter schedule [6]. - Palm Oil: Expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [7]. - Silver: Oscillates with a bullish bias as the probability of a September interest rate cut remains high [8]. - Rapeseed Meal: There is a continuous tug - of - war between bulls and bears in the market [9]. - Medium - and Long - term Treasury Bonds: Short - term bullish, but medium - term outlook is bearish and oscillating [9]. - Coking Coal: Short - term price correction space is limited, and subsequent coal production and downstream production cuts should be monitored [10]. - Ferrosilicon: Prices are expected to follow the sector in the short term, but there are concerns about the medium - to - long - term fundamentals [10]. - Methanol: Expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [12]. - Plastic: Expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [13]. - Glass: Expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on pullbacks [14]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Rubber - Thailand's raw material prices are rising, and Hainan's rubber collection is affected by rainfall. China's natural rubber social inventory has decreased, and demand expectations are improving. The Fed's potential interest rate cut also boosts the market [1]. Gold - The Bank of Japan's possible interest rate hike and the potential end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict influence the gold market [2]. Crude Oil - The IEA has adjusted supply and demand forecasts, and the EIA reported an increase in US production and inventory. The US - Russia meeting may impact the geopolitical support for oil prices [4]. PTA - PTA device maintenance has increased, but the operating rate is expected to rise. Downstream polyester demand has uncertainties due to profit issues [5]. Pig - Pig prices are rising steadily with regional differences. Demand remains weak, and investment strategies vary in the short and long term [6]. Palm Oil - The USDA report shows stable production and export forecasts, with a slight decrease in consumption and inventory. Market sentiment is bullish in the short term [7]. Silver - Fed officials are trying to cool the interest - rate cut expectations, but a September cut is still likely, leading to a bullish outlook for silver [8]. Rapeseed Meal - Supply shortages may drive prices up, but demand - side substitution and other factors restrict price increases [9]. Medium - and Long - term Treasury Bonds - Bond yields are falling, and the market may rebound in the short term, but the medium - term outlook is bearish [9]. Coking Coal - The production and inventory of washed coal are increasing, and downstream demand has support, but the market is in a wait - and - see state [10]. Ferrosilicon - The cost is supported, but production is increasing, and the medium - to - long - term supply - demand relationship may become looser [10]. Methanol - Port inventory is accumulating, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [12]. Plastic - Supply pressure may ease, and the market is expected to oscillate with weak cost support [13]. Glass - Production is stable, demand is weak, and inventory is rising, with the market expected to oscillate [14].

Market Data Summary - **Commodities**: As of August 8, 2025, among commodities, coking coal had the highest weekly increase of 12.31% at a closing price of 1227.00, while crude oil had the largest decline of -7.22% at 489.80 [2]. - **Equities**: In the A - share market, the CSI 500 rose 1.78% to 6323.50, the SSE 50 increased 1.27% to 2789.17, and the S&P 300 was up 1.23% to 4104.97. Among overseas stocks, the Nasdaq Index climbed 3.87% to 21450.02 [2]. - **Bonds**: Chinese 10 - year, 2 - year, and 5 - year government bonds declined by -0.51%, -0.88%, and -1.18% respectively, closing at 1.69, 1.41, and 1.55 [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro - US dollar exchange rate increased 0.47% to 1.16, while the US dollar index dropped -0.43% to 98.27 [2]. Commodity Views Summary Macro - financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 5 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, faster growth in July's US - dollar - denominated import and export year - on - year growth rates, and the extension of China - US trade negotiations. Bearish factors were the reduction of 800 million shares in ETFs tracking the S&P 300, and domestic economic deflation pressure [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Out of 7 institutions' views, 1 was bullish, 3 were bearish, and 3 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were weak July credit data, expected central bank actions to balance funds, and weak US non - farm data. Bearish factors were potential new government bond supply and short - term equity market rebounds [4]. Energy Sector - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 1 was bullish, 4 were bearish, and 4 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were high US refinery operating rates, inventory reduction, and OPEC+ under - production in July. Bearish factors were potential US - Russia talks and downward - revised US non - farm data [5]. Agricultural Sector - **Palm Oil**: Among 8 institutions' views, 3 were bullish and 5 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were better - than - expected July MPOB data and increasing biodiesel demand. Bearish factors were large Indonesian palm oil inventories and reduced Indian imports [5]. Non - ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 2 were bullish and 5 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were the suspension of China - US tariffs, expected domestic policies to boost demand, and weakening US dollars. Bearish factors were increasing global copper inventories and weak domestic demand [6]. Chemicals Sector - **Glass**: Among 7 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 4 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were improved processing orders and policy expectations. Bearish factors were weak spot market transactions and high inventory pressure [6]. Precious Metals Sector - **Gold**: Among 8 institutions' views, 4 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 3 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were rising Fed rate - cut expectations, weak US non - farm data, and Chinese central bank gold purchases. Bearish factors were a key technical resistance level and potential Fed policy changes [7]. Black Metals Sector - **Coking Coal**: Among 8 institutions' views, 4 were bullish and 4 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were improved market sentiment on coal over - production checks and high iron - water production. Bearish factors were weak real - estate and infrastructure demand [7]. Core View The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodities, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logics. It provides a comprehensive view of different sectors' supply - demand, policy, and macro - economic factors affecting commodity prices [1].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Cotton Morning Report - August 13, 2025 [1] - Author: Wang Mingwei from the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The 01 contract of cotton may fluctuate around 14,000. The overall situation is affected by multiple factors, with a neutral - to - slightly bullish bias in some aspects but also facing bearish factors [4]. - The fundamental situation of cotton shows a balance between supply and demand. The market is in a consumption off - season, and the "Golden September and Silver October" market is unclear [4]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - No specific information provided 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: According to ICAC's August report, the 2025/26 cotton production is 25.9 million tons, and consumption is 25.6 million tons. USDA's July report shows a production of 25.783 million tons, consumption of 25.718 million tons, and an ending inventory of 16.835 million tons in 2025/26. In July, textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. In June, China imported 30,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 82.1%, and 110,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The Ministry of Agriculture's July 2025/26 forecast shows a production of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15,177 yuan, with a basis of 1,197 yuan (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's July 2025/26 forecast for China's ending inventory is 8.23 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is near the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral situation [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bullish, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear [4]. - **Expectations**: Sino - US trade negotiations are postponed, lower than market expectations. July's textile export data is not ideal. It is currently the consumption off - season, and the "Golden September and Silver October" market is unclear [4]. 3. Today's Focus - **Likely Positive Factors**: Reduced previous Sino - US reciprocal tariffs and lower commercial inventory year - on - year [5]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Postponed trade negotiations, currently high export tariffs to the US, consumption off - season, overall decline in foreign trade orders, increased inventory, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton [5]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Supply - Demand Balance (USDA)**: In 2025/26 (July forecast), global cotton production is 25.783 million tons, consumption is 25.718 million tons, and ending inventory is 16.835 million tons. Different countries have different production, consumption, import, and export trends [9][10]. - **Global Supply - Demand Balance (ICAC)**: In 2025/26, global production is 25.9 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 400,000 tons or 1.6%), consumption is 25.6 million tons (basically flat), ending inventory is 17.1 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 260,000 tons or 1.6%), global trade volume is 9.7 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 360,000 tons or 3.9%), and the price forecast (Cotlook A index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents) [11]. - **China's Supply - Demand Balance (Ministry of Agriculture)**: In 2025/26, production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.23 million tons [13]. 5. Position Data - No specific position data information provided other than the general description of the main position being bullish with a decreasing net long position [4]

Group 1: Market Overview - DCE soybean meal's main contract 2601 rose 0.62% to 3091 yuan/ton, while coastal mainstream oil mills' quotes dropped 10 - 30 yuan/ton [2] - DCE live hog's main contract 2509 fell 5 yuan/ton to 13965 yuan/ton, with the national average ex - farm price of outer ternary live hogs dropping 0.02 yuan/kg to 13.65 yuan/kg [2] - Overnight, CBOT US soybeans' main contract rose 2.41% to 1010 cents/bushel [2] Group 2: Weather in Main Producing Areas - In the US Midwest, the west has active rainfall and the east is relatively dry. Temperature from last Thursday to this Monday was near to above normal [3][4] - 6 - 10 day outlook: there will be sporadic showers from Tuesday to Saturday, and temperature will be near to above normal [4] Group 3: Macro and Industry News - On August 8, national major oil mills' imported soybean inventory was 765 million tons, up 46 million tons week - on - week, and soybean meal inventory was 100 million tons, down 4 million tons week - on - week [5] - On August 12, US soybean import cost reached 4555 yuan, up 86 yuan; Brazilian soybean import cost was 4039 yuan, up 103 yuan; Argentine soybean import cost was 3777 yuan, up 75 yuan [5] - On August 11, domestic mainstream oil mills' soybean meal trading volume increased to 54000 tons, and the average trading price rose to 3021.79 yuan/ton [5] - In the first week of August 2025, Brazil exported 277.45 million tons of soybeans in 6 working days, with the daily shipment volume up 26.51% year - on - year [6] - US soybean's good - to - excellent rate was 68%, flowering rate was 91%, and pod - setting rate was 71% [6] - As of the week ending August 8, 2025, US soybean crushing profit was 3.09 dollars/bushel, up 3.0% week - on - week [6] - In the first week of August 2025, Brazil exported 68.49 million tons of soybean meal in 6 working days, with the daily shipment volume up 17.75% year - on - year [6] - As of the week ending August 7, 2025, US soybean export inspection volume was 518066 tons [7] - From August 12, 2025, the 24% tariff measure will be suspended for 90 days [7] - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 14.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 85.9% [7] Group 4: Analysis and Strategy Soybean Meal - US soybean futures rebounded, boosted by the US president's call and the suspension of the 24% tariff. However, the expectation of a US soybean bumper crop restricts the price rebound space [15][16] - Domestic continuous soybean meal M01 dropped sharply. The basis price rebounded, and the trade flow between regions supported the spot price. Future US soybean imports remain uncertain [17] Live Hogs - On the supply side, farmers are increasing supply by reducing the weight of hogs for sale. On the demand side, demand is recovering slightly but still limited by high temperatures [19] - It is expected that the near - month contracts will be relatively resistant to decline in the short term, and the 2511 contract will fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to try long positions with a light position [19]

当地时间11日，美国总统特朗普在其自创的社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发帖宣布，他已签署行政令将对 中国的关税暂停措施再延长90天，同时强调"协议的其他所有条款将保持不变"。 据中国财政部网站消息，国务院关税税则委员会12日也发布公告，宣布在90天内继续暂停实施24%的对 美加征关税税率，保留10%的对美加征关税税率。 此次延长决定是在中国国务院副总理何立峰与美国财政部长贝森特、美国贸易代表贾米森·格里7月底于 瑞典斯德哥尔摩举行第三轮会谈之后做出的。美国"政客新闻网"指出，这一更新意味着两国互征高关税 的最新截止日期到了11月10日。 美联社称，之前谈好的"休战"期将于12日凌晨0时01分到期。若届时未延长，美方可能会大幅上调对中 国商品征收的关税，而中方也可能采取反制措施来应对。延长期限为双方争取了更多时间处理分歧，也 许为两国领导人在今年晚些时候会晤铺路。 【文/观察者网 王一】8月12日，中美双方发布《中美斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明》，美方承诺即日 起90天内继续暂停实施24%的对等关税，中方亦承诺自同日起继续暂停实施24%对美加征关税以及有关 非关税反制措施90天。 这一决定受到了美国商界的欢迎。美中贸 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market presents a neutral outlook based on various factors. The 01 contract is expected to move sideways in the short - term, with attention on the resistance around 14,000 [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include reduced previous Sino - US tariffs and lower commercial inventory year - on - year. Negative factors involve the postponement of trade negotiations, high export tariffs to the US, the off - season for consumption, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant information provided. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Different institutions have different estimates for the 2025/26 cotton year. The ICAC 8 - month report shows a production of 25.90 million tons and consumption of 25.60 million tons. The USDA 7 - month report indicates a production of 25.783 million tons, consumption of 25.718 million tons, and an ending inventory of 16.835 million tons. In July, textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a 0.1% year - on - year decrease. China's cotton imports in June were 30,000 tons, an 82.1% year - on - year decrease, and cotton yarn imports were 110,000 tons, a 0.1% year - on - year increase. The Ministry of Agriculture's July 2025/26 forecast shows a production of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15,161 yuan, and the basis for the 01 contract is 1,281 yuan, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's July 2025/26 forecast for China's ending inventory is 8.23 million tons, which is a bearish factor [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, but the overall position is long, which is a bullish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: Sino - US trade negotiations are postponed, and textile export data in July is not ideal. It is currently the off - season for consumption, and the "Golden September and Silver October" market is unclear. The 01 contract is expected to move sideways in the short - term, with resistance around 14,000 [4]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant information provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast (July)**: Global cotton production in 2025/26 is expected to be 25.783 million tons, consumption is 25.718 million tons, and ending inventory is 16.835 million tons. Different countries have different trends in production, consumption, imports, exports, and ending inventory [9][10]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 year, global production is 25.90 million tons, consumption is 25.60 million tons, ending inventory is 17.10 million tons, and global trade volume is 9.70 million tons. The price forecast for the Cotlook A index is 57 - 94 cents per pound [11]. - **Ministry of Agriculture's China Cotton Data**: From 2023/24 to 2025/26, data on China's cotton's beginning inventory, sown area, harvested area, yield per unit area, production, imports, consumption, ending inventory, domestic average price, and Cotlook A index are presented [13]. 5. Position Data No relevant information provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report maintains the view that the overall trend in the second half of the year is expected to be oscillatory with a downward bias. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the feedback of risk preference on off - season macro data and new developments in Sino - US trade negotiations [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Focus and Market Tracking - The weekly performance of Treasury bond futures contracts showed a slight recovery, and the curve flattened on a weekly basis. The market presented a differentiated feature where the short - end maintained resilience and the long - end's volatility converged. The short - end was supported by loose liquidity and demand for tax - exempt bonds, while the long - end was affected by policy expectations and data games. Attention should be paid to the pricing of newly issued Treasury bonds and the impact of the new VAT policy on the long - end curve [3][5]. 3.2. Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking No specific content summary is provided in the report. 3.3. Seat Analysis - In terms of the daily change in net long positions by institutional type, private funds decreased by 0.35%, foreign capital decreased by 0.16%, and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 0.08%. In terms of weekly changes, private funds decreased by 9.44%, foreign capital increased by 2.19%, and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 2.75% [11].

Core Insights - In the first half of the year, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 34,365 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, while operating revenue was 66.78 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.5% [1] - In June, the profit of industrial enterprises was 7,155.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 4.3%, but the decline narrowed by 4.8 percentage points compared to May, with significant improvement in the manufacturing sector where profits shifted from a 4.1% decline in May to a 1.4% increase [1] - The revenue of industrial enterprises continued to grow, with June showing a 1.0% year-on-year increase, maintaining the same growth rate as May [1] Industry Performance - The equipment manufacturing sector showed rapid growth in both revenue and profit, with June revenue increasing by 7.0% year-on-year and profits turning from a 2.9% decline in May to a 9.6% increase [2] - In the automotive industry, profits surged by 96.8% due to promotional activities boosting sales and increased investment returns from key enterprises [2] - High-end, intelligent, and green industries within manufacturing saw significant profit growth, with electronic special materials manufacturing, aircraft manufacturing, and marine engineering equipment manufacturing profits increasing by 68.1%, 19.0%, and 17.8% respectively [2] Consumer Goods and Related Sectors - The medical instruments and equipment manufacturing, as well as the production of printing, pharmaceutical, and daily-use equipment, experienced rapid profit growth in June [3] - The policy of replacing old consumer goods with new ones continued to show effects, with profits in smart unmanned aerial vehicle manufacturing, computer assembly manufacturing, and household air conditioning manufacturing increasing by 160.0%, 97.2%, and 21.0% respectively [3] - The accounts receivable for industrial enterprises reached 26.69 trillion yuan by the end of June, indicating a recovery trend, although the year-on-year growth rate has been declining for four consecutive months since March [3] Future Outlook - Looking ahead to the third quarter, it is expected that the overall efficiency of industrial enterprises will improve due to the progress in China-US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic "anti-involution" policies, alongside a rapid rebound in prices of coking coal and steel [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Currently, the path of interest rate cuts is unclear. Without a significant improvement in interest rate cut expectations, the upward momentum of copper prices is insufficient. However, due to the resilience of the fundamentals, the downside space is also limited. Copper pricing has returned to macro trading, and in the absence of significant macro disturbances, it may mainly fluctuate within a range. The reference range for the main contract is 77,000 - 79,000 [1]. Aluminum - Recently, the alumina futures price has rebounded, but the market will remain slightly oversupplied in the future. The core driver will be the continuous game between cost support and over - capacity. It is expected that the main contract will run in the range of 3,000 - 3,400 in the short term. For aluminum, under the pressure of inventory accumulation expectations, weakening demand, and macro disturbances, it is expected that the price will remain under high - level pressure in the short term. The reference price range for the main contract this month is 20,000 - 21,000 [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is relatively tight, providing some support for the cost of recycled aluminum. However, the demand is continuously suppressed by the traditional off - season. It is expected that the disk will mainly show wide - range fluctuations, with the main contract running in the range of 19,200 - 20,200. Attention should be paid to changes in upstream scrap aluminum supply and imports [5]. Zinc - The TC of zinc mines has risen, but the growth rates of global mine output in May and domestic mine output in June were both lower than expected. The fundamentals of loose supply and weak demand are insufficient to boost the continuous upward movement of zinc prices, but low inventories provide price support. It is expected that zinc prices will mainly fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 22,000 - 23,000 [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the recovery of tin ore imports from Myanmar in August. If the supply recovers smoothly, there is a large downward space for tin prices. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies. If the supply recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to remain high [11]. Nickel - Recently, the macro situation has been stable, and the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The mid - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of prices. It is expected that the disk will be mainly adjusted within a range in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000. Attention should be paid to changes in macro expectations [13]. Stainless Steel - The short - term sentiment of the disk is stable, but the policy's continuous stimulus expectations are insufficient, and the fundamental spot demand drive is not obvious. It is expected that the disk will mainly fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract running in the range of 12,600 - 13,200. Attention should be paid to policy trends and supply - demand rhythms [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The current supply - demand situation is in a tight balance as expected. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is steadily optimistic, gradually entering the peak season. However, due to the inventory pressure in the material industry chain, the actual demand has not been significantly boosted. The disk is mainly trading on expectations, and the uncertainty on the supply side will still inject trading variables. Attention should be paid to short - term news increments and supply adjustments [18]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose by 0.19% to 78,500 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper price rose by 0.23% to 78,365 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 11.15% to 734 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, the electrolytic copper output was 117.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%. In June, the electrolytic copper import volume was 30.05 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.74%. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 7.01% week - on - week [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price rose by 0.29% to 20,690 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The alumina price in most regions remained stable, with only the average price in Guizhou rising by 0.45% [4]. Fundamental Data - In July, the alumina output was 765.02 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40%. The electrolytic aluminum output was 372.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.11%. The aluminum profile开工率 decreased by 1.00% week - on - week [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 rose by 0.50% to 20,250 yuan/ton. The monthly spread of some contracts changed, such as the 2511 - 2512 spread decreasing by 5 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Data - In June, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.49%. The output of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 25.50 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.30%. The recycled aluminum alloy开工率 increased by 3.02% week - on - week [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose by 0.81% to 22,510 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 15 yuan/ton. The import loss increased, and the monthly spread of some contracts decreased [8]. Fundamental Data - In July, the refined zinc output was 60.28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.03%. In June, the refined zinc import volume was 3.61 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.97%. The galvanizing开工率 decreased by 2.65% week - on - week [8]. Tin Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.15% to 267,200 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 73.81% [11]. Fundamental Data - In June, the tin ore import volume was 11,911 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.44%. The SMM refined tin output was 13,810 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.94%. The SHEF inventory increased by 3.42% [11]. Nickel Price and Cost - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel rose by 0.04% to 122,150 yuan/ton, and the premium of some brands remained stable. The cost of integrated MHP production of electrowon nickel increased by 0.88% month - on - month [13]. Supply and Inventory - China's refined nickel output decreased by 10.04% month - on - month, while the import volume increased by 116.90%. The SHFE inventory increased by 0.69% week - on - week, and the LME inventory decreased by 0.11% day - on - day [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) rose by 0.38% to 13,050 yuan/ton. The monthly spread of some contracts increased slightly [16]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel output decreased by 3.83% month - on - month. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 2.58% week - on - week [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rose by 0.21% to 71,100 yuan/ton. The basis decreased by 47.37% to 1,100 yuan/ton [18]. Fundamental Data - In July, the lithium carbonate output was 81,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. The demand was 96,275 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.62%. The total inventory decreased by 2.01% month - on - month [18].