1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to remain range - bound in the short term, influenced by the US soybean harvest weather, Sino - US trade negotiations, and the arrival of imported soybeans. The soybean market will also be affected by these factors, along with domestic soybean production and demand [10][11]. - The main factors affecting the soybean meal market include the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations, the inventory level of domestic oil mills, and the weather in the US soybean - producing areas. For soybeans, the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand are positive factors, while the high - yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic production are negative factors [14][15]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Weekly Hints No specific content provided for weekly hints. 3.2 Recent News - Sino - US trade negotiations are deadlocked, which is a short - term negative for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on soybean growth, harvest conditions, and the outcome of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remains high in October. The inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills has declined from a high level. The soybean meal market has returned to a range - bound pattern [13]. - The profit of domestic pig farming has decreased, leading to a low expectation of pig replenishment, which suppresses the price expectation of soybean meal. However, the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations keeps the soybean meal market in a range - bound pattern [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Uncertainty in Sino - US trade negotiations, relatively low inventory of domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in October and the expected high - yield of South American soybeans [14]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: Cost support from imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand [15]. - Bearish factors: High - yield of Brazilian soybeans and increased purchases of Brazilian soybeans by China, as well as the expected increase in domestic soybean production [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data Soybean Meal - The inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills was 1.1892 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.86% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.04%. The basis is - 23, indicating a discount to the futures price [10]. - The price is above the 20 - day moving average but moving downward. The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed out [10]. Soybeans - The inventory of soybeans in domestic oil mills was 7.1991 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.63% and a year - on - year increase of 14.38%. The basis is 4, indicating a slight discount to the futures price [11]. - The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upward. The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed in [11]. 3.5 Position Data The main short positions in the soybean meal market have increased, and funds have flowed out. In the soybean market, the main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed in [10][11]. 3.6 Fundamental Impact Factors Overview | Project | Situation | Driver | Next - week Expectation | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Weather | Short - term normal weather in some US soybean - producing areas | Neutral | Good short - term weather in US soybean - producing areas, neutral or bearish | | Import Cost | US soybeans are oscillating, and there are still variables in Sino - US tariffs, trade negotiations, and US soybean weather | Neutral | Expected to oscillate weakly, neutral or bearish | | Oil Mill Pressing | The short - term demand for soybean meal is expected to decline, while the pressing volume of oil mills remains high | Bearish | Short - term demand is weak, and the operation rate of oil mills is expected to decline from a high level, bullish | | Transaction | The enthusiasm for downstream forward - stocking has declined | Bearish | Market transactions are expected to be low, neutral or bearish | | Oil Mill Inventory | The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has declined from a high level | Bullish | The operation rate of upstream oil mills will decline from a high level, and the inventory of oil mills is expected to continue to decline, bullish | [9] 3.7 Trading Strategies Soybean Meal - Futures: US soybeans are expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark in the short term, and soybean meal will also remain range - bound. The M2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 2800 and 3100, and short - term trading within the range is recommended [17]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [19]. Soybeans - Futures: The A2601 contract of soybeans is expected to oscillate between 4000 and 4200, and short - term trading within the range is recommended [20]. - Options: No specific option strategy provided for soybeans.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal M2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2920 - 2980. The domestic soybean meal may maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short - term, influenced by the US soybean trend, high imports of soybeans in October, and the spot price discount [8][9]. - The soybean A2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 4040 - 4140. The domestic soybean is affected by the high imports of soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production, but the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the price [10][11]. - The market focuses on the impact of US soybean harvesting weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game for both soybean meal and soybeans [14][15]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The soybean meal M2601 may maintain an oscillatory pattern. The fundamentals include the US soybean's oscillatory decline, high imports of soybeans in October, and the spot price discount. The inventory decreased compared to last week and last year, but the main position's short - selling increased and funds flowed out [9]. - The soybean A2601 may also oscillate. The fundamentals are affected by the US soybean situation, high imports of soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the price [11]. 2. Recent News - The Sino - US tariff negotiation is in a stalemate, which is short - term negative for US soybeans. The US soybean is oscillating above the thousand - point mark, waiting for further guidance on the growth and harvesting of US soybeans, imports of soybeans, and Sino - US tariff negotiations [13]. - The imports of soybeans in China remained high in October. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills decreased from the high level in October. The soybean meal is expected to oscillate in the short - term [13]. - The profit of pig farming in China decreased, leading to a low expectation of pig replenishment, which suppresses the price expectation of soybean meal. However, the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations keeps the soybean meal oscillating [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: high total imports of soybeans in October and the expected high yield of US soybeans [14]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost support of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [15]. - Bearish factors: high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the data of harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, end - inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2015 to 2024 [32]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the data of harvest area, initial inventory, production, imports, total supply, total consumption, end - inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2015 to 2024 [33]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress**: It includes the planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023/24 to 2025 [34][35][38][39][40][41][42]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Report**: It shows the planting area, yield per unit, production, end - inventory, new - bean exports, and other data of the US in the past six months [43]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival**: The arrival of imported soybeans decreased from the high level in October, with an overall year - on - year increase [46]. 5. Position Data - No specific position data summary is provided other than the increase of short positions in the main contracts of soybean meal and soybeans and the corresponding capital flow information [9][11].

Group 1: Event Overview - The China-U.S. economic and trade talks took place in Kuala Lumpur on October 25-26, 2023, led by Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen[1] - Key topics included U.S. maritime logistics and shipbuilding 301 measures, extension of tariff suspension, fentanyl tariffs, enforcement cooperation, agricultural trade, and export controls[1] - Both sides reached a basic consensus on addressing mutual concerns and agreed to further define specific details and follow domestic approval procedures[1] Group 2: Negotiation Insights - The discussions marked a shift from previous rounds, focusing on substantive issues like agricultural trade and fentanyl tariff reductions, indicating progress in negotiations[2] - Chinese Commerce Ministry representative Li Chenggang noted that while constructive discussions occurred, the U.S. maintained a firm stance, and China remained steadfast in protecting its interests[2] - Future negotiations and outcomes are contingent on subsequent talks and high-level considerations from both sides[2] Group 3: Strategic Considerations - The timing of the talks before the APEC meeting is strategically significant, providing an opportunity for communication and position coordination ahead of high-level meetings[2] - APEC serves as a crucial platform for global economic cooperation, making the prior discussions essential for regional and global economic collaboration[2] Group 4: Risk Factors - Potential risks include the U.S. policy pace exceeding expectations and the possibility of slower-than-anticipated progress in China-U.S. trade negotiations[2]

周度报告-黄金 资金获利了结，金价高位下挫 [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] 黄金：看跌 报告日期： 2025 年 10 月 26 日 ★投资建议： 短期金价缺乏上涨动力，需要注意回调风险，国际金价考察 4000 美元的支撑，沪金出现一定的抄底迹象，不过也未完全企稳。关 注中美贸易谈判进展，预计市场波动增加。 ★风险提示： 地缘政治风险缓和、美联储鹰派、流动性冲击，将引发黄金回调。 | 徐颖 | FRM | 宏观策略首席分析师 | | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_Analyser] 从业资格号： | | F3022608 | | 投资咨询号： | | Z0013609 | | Tel: | | 8621-63325888-1610 | | Email: | | ying.xu @orientfutures.com | [★Ta市bl场e_综Su述mm：ary] 伦敦金跌 3.3%至 4113 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率微降至 4%，通 胀预期 2.27%，实际利率微升至 1.73%，美元指数涨 0.53%至 98.9， 标普 500 指数上涨 1.92%，人民币震荡，沪金折价 ...

Core Viewpoint - The discussions between China and the U.S. covered various topics, including export controls, tariff suspensions, fentanyl-related issues, and trade expansion, leading to constructive dialogue and preliminary consensus on handling mutual concerns [1]. Group 1: Key Discussion Topics - The discussions included export control issues that both sides are concerned about [1] - There was a focus on extending the suspension period for reciprocal tariffs [1] - Fentanyl tariffs and cooperation on drug control were significant points of discussion [1] - The U.S. expressed a strong stance on these issues, while China remained firm in protecting its interests [1] Group 2: Outcomes and Next Steps - After intense discussions, both sides explored constructive solutions to address their concerns [1] - A preliminary consensus was formed on several issues, indicating progress in negotiations [1] - Each side will proceed with internal approval processes to implement the discussed agreements [1]

新华社快讯：中国商务部国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长李成钢26日说，双方的讨论包括众多的议题，比如 双方各有关注的出口管制议题，对等关税进一步延长暂停期问题，芬太尼关税和芬太尼禁毒合作问题， 进一步扩大贸易问题，美方301船舶收费相关措施问题等等，中美双方就此进行了建设性的探讨，美方 表达立场是强硬的，中方维护利益是坚定的。经过一天多的非常紧张的讨论，中美双方就上述这些议题 建设性地探讨了一些妥善处理双方关注的方案，形成了初步共识。下一步各自将会履行内部报批程序。 ...

Core Points - The discussions between China and the U.S. covered various topics including export control issues, extension of tariff suspension, fentanyl tariffs, and cooperation on fentanyl drug control [1] - Both sides engaged in constructive discussions, with the U.S. maintaining a strong stance while China remained firm in protecting its interests [1] - After intense discussions, preliminary consensus was reached on handling the concerns of both parties, with each side set to follow internal approval processes [1]

Core Viewpoint - The discussions between China and the U.S. covered various topics including export controls, tariff suspensions, fentanyl-related issues, and trade expansion, leading to constructive dialogue and preliminary consensus on handling mutual concerns [1] Group 1 - The discussions included key topics such as export control issues, extension of tariff suspension, fentanyl tariffs, and cooperation on fentanyl drug control [1] - The U.S. expressed a strong stance while China remained firm in protecting its interests during the discussions [1] - After over a day of intense discussions, both sides explored constructive solutions and reached a preliminary consensus on the issues discussed [1]

新华社快讯：中国商务部国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长李成钢26日说，双方的讨论包括众多的议题，比如 双方各有关注的出口管制议题，对等关税进一步延长暂停期问题，芬太尼关税和芬太尼禁毒合作问题， 进一步扩大贸易问题，美方301船舶收费相关措施问题等等，中美双方就此进行了建设性的探讨，美方 表达立场是强硬的，中方维护利益是坚定的。经过一天多的非常紧张的讨论，中美双方就上述这些议题 建设性地探讨了一些妥善处理双方关注的方案，形成了初步共识。下一步各自将会履行内部报批程序。 责任编辑：何俊熹 ...

（文章来源：新华社） 新华社快讯：中国商务部国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长李成钢26日说，双方的讨论包括众多的议题，比如 双方各有关注的出口管制议题，对等关税进一步延长暂停期问题，芬太尼关税和芬太尼禁毒合作问题， 进一步扩大贸易问题，美方301船舶收费相关措施问题等等，中美双方就此进行了建设性的探讨，美方 表达立场是强硬的，中方维护利益是坚定的。经过一天多的非常紧张的讨论，中美双方就上述这些议题 建设性地探讨了一些妥善处理双方关注的方案，形成了初步共识。下一步各自将会履行内部报批程序。 ...