Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of soybeans and soybean meal. For soybean meal, it is expected to return to a volatile pattern in the short - term, with the M2601 contract oscillating between 2920 and 2980. For soybeans, the A2511 contract is expected to oscillate between 3880 and 3980. The market is mainly influenced by factors such as US soybean weather, Sino - US tariff negotiations, soybean supply and demand, and livestock farming conditions [8][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations are at a stalemate, and the US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark. The US soybean weather and Sino - US trade negotiations are in a critical period. The September USDA report has a relatively neutral impact. The domestic import of soybeans remains high in September, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills is at a relatively high level. The demand for soybean meal has rebounded in August and September, but the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations persists, and soybean meal has returned to an interval - oscillating pattern [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills, and variable weather in US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: high volume of imported soybeans in September, and the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest with a continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations [14]. - Bearish factors: a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the output of new domestic soybeans suppresses price expectations [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the global soybean harvest area, output, and total supply have generally shown an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio has also fluctuated and increased [31]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the domestic soybean harvest area, output, and import volume have changed, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio has also fluctuated [32]. - **Soybean and Meal Price Data**: The report provides price data for soybean and meal futures and spot markets from September 16 to 24, 2025, showing the price trends and price differences between futures and spot markets [15][17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: The report provides warehouse receipt data for soybeans and soybean meal from September 12 to 24, 2025, showing the changes in warehouse receipts [19]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided. Other Market Conditions - The export inspection of US soybeans has increased week - on - week and year - on - year. The arrival volume of imported soybeans has decreased from its high in September but has generally increased year - on - year. The soybean inventory of oil mills has reached a new high, and the soybean meal inventory has continued to increase. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have decreased from a high level. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has followed the decline of US soybeans, and the profit on the futures market has fluctuated slightly. The pig inventory has continued to rise, while the sow inventory has remained flat year - on - year and slightly decreased month - on - month. Pig prices have recently declined again, and piglet prices have remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in the country has increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has slightly increased. The domestic pig - farming profit has recently deteriorated [42][44][45].

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - The US soybean market is affected by factors such as weather uncertainties in the US soybean - producing areas, South American soybean harvest, and Sino - US trade relations. The domestic soybean and soybean meal markets are influenced by import volumes, demand, and price differentials, with short - term trends showing a return to a volatile pattern [8]. - The soybean meal M2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2980 - 3040 [8]. - The soybean A2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3840 - 3940 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - There is no specific content for this part in the report. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiation progress is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is awaiting the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations and the harvest weather in the US soybean - producing areas [12]. - The domestic import of soybeans remains at a relatively high level in August. The soybean meal market is affected by factors such as the US soybean weather, Sino - US trade negotiations, and the rise of rapeseed meal prices, showing short - term volatility [12]. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits leads to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has recently recovered, but due to uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations, the soybean meal market returns to a range - bound pattern [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - **Likely Positive Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low current soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills, and weather uncertainties in the US soybean - producing areas [13]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: High total volume of imported soybeans in September, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the expected high - yield of South American soybeans [13]. Soybeans - **Likely Positive Factors**: Cost support from imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The expected high - yield of Brazilian soybeans and the increase in domestic procurement of Brazilian soybeans, as well as the expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2920, with a basis of - 82, indicating a discount to futures. The oil mill's soybean meal inventory is 113.62 tons, a 5.32% increase from last week and a 15.76% decrease from the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price in Jiamusi is 4140, with a basis of 245, indicating a premium to futures. The oil mill's soybean inventory is 731.7 tons, a 5% increase from last week and a 6.17% increase from the same period last year [8][10]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main long positions have decreased, but there is capital inflow [8]. - **Soybeans**: The main long positions have increased, with capital inflow [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The soybean market in the US is affected by weather uncertainties in the production areas, South American soybean harvest, and China's import volume. The domestic soybean and bean meal markets are influenced by factors such as import volume, domestic demand, and production expectations. The short - term trend of domestic bean meal is in a volatile and relatively strong pattern, and the soybean and bean meal futures are expected to fluctuate within a certain range [8][10] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - No content provided on this part 2. Recent News - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is affected by relatively positive data from the US agricultural report and is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark. The domestic bean meal market is in a short - term volatile and relatively strong pattern, affected by factors such as the high arrival volume of imported soybeans in August, the price correction of rapeseed meal, and the uncertain weather in the US soybean production areas. It awaits further guidance on South American soybean production and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12] 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Bean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in the US soybean production areas. - Bearish factors: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in September, South American soybean harvest, and overall good planting weather for US soybeans [13] Soybean - Bullish factors: Cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans. - Bearish factors: Expected high - yield of Brazilian soybeans and expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production [14] 4. Fundamental Data - The daily trading data of bean meal and rapeseed meal from September 8 to September 16 show that the trading volume of bean meal fluctuates, and the price difference between bean meal and rapeseed meal also fluctuates slightly. The futures and spot prices of soybeans and bean meal from September 8 to September 16 show that the futures prices of soybeans and bean meal fluctuate, and the spot prices of soybeans remain stable while the spot prices of bean meal decline slightly. The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets show the changes in soybean supply and demand from 2015 to 2024, including harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory [15][17][32] 5. Position Data - No content provided on this part Bean Meal and Soybean Views and Strategies Bean Meal - Fundamental situation: US soybeans oscillate and rebound, while domestic bean meal oscillates and declines. It is expected to return to an oscillatory pattern in the short term. - Basis: The spot price in East China is 2950, with a basis of - 91, indicating a discount to futures. - Inventory: The oil mill's bean meal inventory is 113.62 tons, a 5.32% increase from last week and a 15.76% decrease from the same period last year. - Market trend: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward. - Main position: The main long positions decrease, and funds flow out. - Expectation: The bean meal M2601 is expected to oscillate between 3000 and 3060 [8] Soybean - Fundamental situation: US soybeans oscillate and rebound, while domestic soybeans oscillate and decline. It is affected by the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the peak arrival season of imported soybeans in the short term. - Basis: The spot price is 4200, with a basis of 276, indicating a premium to futures. - Inventory: The oil mill's soybean inventory is 731.7 tons, a 5% increase from last week and a 6.17% increase from the same period last year. - Market trend: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward. - Main position: The main long positions decrease, and funds flow in. - Expectation: The soybean A2511 is expected to oscillate between 3900 and 4000 [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to enter a moderately bullish and range - bound pattern. The price of soybean meal M2601 is expected to fluctuate between 3060 and 3120. Factors such as the uncertain weather in US soybean - producing areas support the bottom of the US soybean market, but the abundant harvest of South American soybeans and the overall good planting weather in the US limit the rebound height of the US soybean market. In addition, the increase in the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans in China affects the domestic soybean meal market [8]. - The soybean market is expected to be neutral and range - bound. The price of soybean A2511 is expected to fluctuate between 3900 and 4000. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the domestic soybean market, while the expected abundant harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production limit the upward space of the market [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is affected by relatively positive data from the US Department of Agriculture report and is expected to fluctuate above the 1000 - point mark. Future trends depend on the growth and harvest of US soybeans, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remained high in August. The soybean meal inventory of oil mills entered a relatively high level in August. Affected by relatively positive data from the August US Department of Agriculture report and the rise of rapeseed meal, the soybean meal market is short - term moderately bullish and range - bound [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits leads to a low expectation of pig replenishment. However, the recent recovery in soybean meal demand supports the price of soybean meal. Due to the uncertainty of China - US trade negotiations, the soybean meal market returns to a range - bound pattern [12]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills continues to rise. The possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - producing areas and the variables in the China - US tariff war affect the short - term moderately bullish and range - bound pattern of soybean meal. Future trends depend on the clear output of South American soybeans and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: high total arrival of imported soybeans in September, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of an abundant harvest of South American soybeans [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [14]. - Bearish factors: the continuous expectation of an abundant harvest of Brazilian soybeans, China's increased purchase of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2970, with a basis of - 118, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory of oil mills is 113.62 million tons, a 5.32% increase from last week and a 15.76% decrease from the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4200, with a basis of 255, indicating a premium to the futures. The inventory of oil mills is 731.7 million tons, a 5% increase from last week and a 6.17% increase from the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The long positions of the main contract decreased, and funds flowed out [8]. - **Soybeans**: The long positions of the main contract increased, and funds flowed in [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to enter a volatile and slightly bullish pattern in the short term, with the M2601 contract fluctuating between 3000 and 3060. The main influencing factors include the uncertainty of weather in US soybean - growing areas, the high arrival of imported soybeans in China, and the demand for soybean meal [8]. - The soybean market is in a neutral situation in the short term, with the A2511 contract fluctuating between 3920 and 4020. Factors such as the cost of imported soybeans, the expected increase in domestic soybean production, and the demand for domestic soybeans affect the market [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - No specific content provided for a detailed summary. 2. Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is affected by relatively positive USDA report data and is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on soybean growth, harvest, and tariff negotiations [12]. - In China, the arrival of imported soybeans remained high in August, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills reached a relatively high level. Affected by the USDA report and the rise of rapeseed meal, soybean meal is in a short - term volatile and slightly bullish pattern [12]. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. However, the recent increase in soybean meal demand supports the price, and the market is back in a range - bound pattern due to uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations [12]. - The short - term bullish oscillation of soybean meal is affected by factors such as the possible weather speculation in US soybean - growing areas, the changeable Sino - US tariff war, and it awaits the clarification of South American soybean production and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and uncertain weather in US soybean - growing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: high arrival volume of imported soybeans in July, the end of Brazilian soybean harvesting, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [14]. - Bearish factors: the continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest and China's increased purchase of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production suppresses the price [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2990, with a basis of - 60, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory of oil mills' soybean meal is 105.33 tons, a 3.8% increase from last week and a 29.71% decrease compared to the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4200, with a basis of 230, indicating a premium to the futures. The inventory of oil mills' soybeans is 682.53 tons, a 0.31% increase from last week and a 5.46% decrease compared to the same period last year [10]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Provide data on harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2015 to 2024, showing the long - term supply - demand situation of soybeans globally and in China [31][32]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices**: Present the trading prices and volumes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from August 22 to September 2, as well as the price trends of soybean and soybean meal futures and spot from August 25 to September 2 [15][17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: Record the quantity changes of soybean and soybean meal warehouse receipts from August 21 to September 2 [19]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal, the long positions of the main contract decreased, and funds flowed out [8]. - For soybeans, the long positions of the main contract decreased, and funds flowed out [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Bean Meal**: US soybeans are oscillating and rebounding, with the rise of oils and fats and technical consolidation. Domestic bean meal is oscillating and falling back, affected by profit - taking and technical factors. In the short term, it may enter an oscillating and bullish pattern, with the M2601 contract oscillating in the range of 3080 - 3140 [8]. - **Soybeans**: US soybeans are oscillating and rebounding, while domestic soybeans are oscillating and falling back. Affected by factors such as increased expected imports and new - season domestic soybean production, the short - term trend is neutral, with the A2511 contract oscillating in the range of 3960 - 4060 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints No specific content provided for daily hints. 2. Recent News - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating and rebounding under the influence of relatively positive USDA report data. It is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean growth, harvest, import arrivals, and China - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remains high in August. Affected by the relatively positive USDA report data in August and the rise of rapeseed meal, domestic bean meal is in a short - term oscillating and bullish pattern [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits leads to low expectations of pig restocking. The recent increase in bean meal demand supports the price, but due to the uncertainty of China - US trade negotiations, bean meal returns to an oscillating pattern [12]. - The inventory of domestic oil - mill bean meal continues to rise. Affected by the possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and the uncertainty of the China - US tariff war, bean meal is in a short - term bullish oscillation, awaiting further guidance on South American soybean production and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - **Bean Meal** - **Bullish Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil - mill bean meal, and variable weather in the US soybean - producing areas [13]. - **Bearish Factors**: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. - **Soybeans** - **Bullish Factors**: Cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - **Bearish Factors**: Continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest, increased Chinese procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: The report provides the transaction average price, trading volume, and price difference between bean meal and rapeseed meal from August 12th to August 21st [15]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices**: The report lists the futures prices of soybeans (bean one, bean two) and bean meal (near - month, main contract), as well as the spot prices of soybeans and bean meal from August 13th to August 21st [17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: The report shows the warehouse receipt data of bean one, bean two, and bean meal from August 11th to August 21st [19]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global soybean supply - demand balance sheet covers the period from 2015 to 2024, and the domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheet covers the same period, including data on harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [31][32]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: It includes the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina (2023/24, 2024/25), the United States (2024), and Brazil (2024/25) [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: The report presents the USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from February to August 2025, including data on harvest area, yield, output, ending inventory, old - crop exports, crushing, and soybean production in Brazil and Argentina [41]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival Volume**: The arrival volume of imported soybeans in August is high but declining, with an overall year - on - year increase. The report provides monthly arrival volume data from 2020 to 2025 [44]. 5. Position Data - **Bean Meal**: The main long positions in bean meal are decreasing, and funds are flowing out [8]. - **Soybeans**: The main long positions in soybeans are increasing, and funds are flowing in [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The US soybean market is oscillating upward, with short - term weather uncertainties and technical consolidation. It awaits the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the growth weather in US soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybean meal market is also in an upward oscillation, supported by good demand expectations and technical factors. However, the high volume of imported soybeans arriving in August and the spot price discount limit the upside. It may enter a moderately bullish oscillation pattern in the short term. The domestic soybean market is in a narrow - range oscillation, affected by the US soybean trend and technical factors. The high volume of imported soybeans and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production suppress the price. It is currently under the interactive influence of the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the peak season of imported soybean arrivals [8][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. With relatively good recent weather in US soybean - growing areas, the US soybean market is oscillating upward after being affected by relatively positive data in the US agricultural report. It is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean growth, harvesting, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations. - The volume of imported soybeans arriving in China remains high in August, and the soybean meal inventory in oil mills is at a relatively high level. Affected by the relatively positive data in the August US agricultural report and the rise in rapeseed meal prices, soybean meal is in a short - term moderately bullish oscillation. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits leads to low expectations for pig replenishment. The recent recovery in soybean meal demand supports the price. Considering the uncertainty in China - US trade negotiations, soybean meal returns to an oscillation pattern within a range. - The soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills continues to rise. Affected by the possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - growing areas and uncertainties in the China - US tariff war, soybean meal is in a short - term bullish oscillation, awaiting the clarification of South American soybean production and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans; relatively low domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory; uncertainties in US soybean - growing area weather [13]. - Bearish factors: high volume of imported soybeans arriving in July; the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; expected recovery in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [14]. - Bearish factors: continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans; expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production suppresses the price expectation of soybeans [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2990, with a basis of - 165, indicating a discount to the futures. The oil - mill soybean meal inventory is 100.35 tons, a 3.66% decrease from last week and a 31.74% decrease from the same period last year. The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upward. The main - contract long positions are increasing, and funds are flowing in [8]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4300, with a basis of 256, indicating a premium to the futures. The oil - mill soybean inventory is 710.56 tons, an 8.38% increase from last week and a 0.59% decrease from the same period last year. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward. The main - contract long positions are increasing, and funds are flowing in [10]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the given content Other Data - **Soybean and Meal Transaction Data**: From August 7th to 18th, the average transaction price of soybean meal ranged from 2999 to 3086, and the trading volume ranged from 0.15 to 33.1 tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal ranged from 2640 to 2660, and the trading volume was relatively low. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly [15]. - **Soybean and Meal Price Data**: From August 8th to 18th, the futures prices of soybean No. 1 (2511), soybean No. 2 (2511), soybean meal near - month (2509), and soybean meal main - contract (2601) all showed certain fluctuations. The spot prices of soybean No. 1 (in Jiamusi), soybean No. 2 (duty - paid price), and soybean meal (in Jiangsu) also changed to some extent [17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse - receipt Data**: From August 6th to 18th, the soybean No. 1 warehouse receipts decreased from 13621 to 12632, the soybean No. 2 warehouse receipts remained at 2900 for most of the time, and the soybean meal warehouse receipts were mainly 10925 or 10950 [19]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - and - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - and - demand balance sheets show the changes in harvest area, beginning inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2015 to 2024 [31][32]. - **Soybean Planting, Growth, and Harvest Progress**: The planting, growth, and harvest progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina from 2023 - 2025 are presented, including data on planting rate, emergence rate, flowering rate, pod - setting rate, defoliation rate, harvest rate, etc. [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - and - Demand Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - and - demand reports from February to August 2025 show changes in harvest area, yield per unit, production, ending inventory, old - crop exports, crushing, and the production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [41]. - **Other Market Data**: The weekly export inspection of US soybeans is increasing both month - on - month and year - on - year. The volume of imported soybeans arriving in China is decreasing from its high in August but showing an overall year - on - year increase. The soybean inventory in oil mills is slightly increasing, while the soybean meal inventory is slightly decreasing. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have risen to a high and then declined, with an increase in short - term stocking demand. The cost of imported Brazilian soybeans is rising with the increase in US soybean prices, and the profit margin of imported soybeans in the futures market is deteriorating. The pig inventory is rising, the sow inventory is flat year - on - year and slightly decreasing month - on - month. The pig price has recently declined after reaching a high, and the piglet price remains weak. The proportion of large pigs in China is increasing, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs is slightly rising. The domestic pig - farming profit has recently declined [42][44][45][47][51][53][55][57][59].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean market in the US is oscillating and rising, with short - term weather uncertainties and short - covering. It is waiting for the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the growth weather in US soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybean meal market has risen and then fallen, affected by rapeseed meal and technical adjustments. In the short term, it may enter a moderately strong oscillation pattern. The soybean market in China is oscillating and falling, influenced by the decline of US soybeans and technical adjustments. It is affected by the high arrival of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [8][10]. - The short - term progress of China - US tariff negotiations is favorable for US soybeans. The US soybean market is rising due to relatively positive data from the US agricultural report. The domestic soybean meal market is moderately strong in the short term due to the high arrival of imported soybeans, the relatively high inventory of soybean meal in oil mills, and the positive data from the August US agricultural report and the rise of rapeseed meal [12]. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The recent recovery of soybean meal demand supports the price, but due to the uncertainty of China - US trade negotiations, the soybean meal market returns to an oscillating pattern [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The short - term progress of China - US tariff negotiations is favorable for US soybeans. The US soybean market is rising due to relatively positive data from the US agricultural report. It is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for the growth and harvest of US soybeans, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remains high in August. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is relatively high. Affected by the relatively positive data from the August US agricultural report and the rise of rapeseed meal, the soybean meal market is moderately strong in the short term [12]. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The recent recovery of soybean meal demand supports the price, but due to the uncertainty of China - US trade negotiations, the soybean meal market returns to an oscillating pattern [12]. - The inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills continues to rise. Affected by the possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - producing areas and the variables in the China - US tariff war, the soybean meal market is moderately strong in the short term, waiting for the clear output of South American soybeans and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - **Soybean Meal**: - **Positive Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in US soybean - producing areas [13]. - **Negative Factors**: High arrival of imported soybeans in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. - **Soybeans**: - **Positive Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the price [14]. - **Negative Factors**: The continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest, China's increased purchase of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppressing the price [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: Spot price is 2980 (East China), with a basis of - 157, indicating a discount to futures. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is 100.35 tons, a 3.66% decrease from last week and a 31.74% decrease from the same period last year. The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards. The long positions of the main contract have increased, but the funds have flowed out [8]. - **Soybeans**: Spot price is 4300, with a basis of 244, indicating a premium to futures. The inventory of soybeans in oil mills is 710.56 tons, an 8.38% increase from last week and a 0.59% decrease from the same period last year. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downwards. The long positions of the main contract have decreased, and the funds have flowed out [10]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The long positions of the main contract have increased, but the funds have flowed out [8]. - **Soybeans**: The long positions of the main contract have decreased, and the funds have flowed out [10].

CONTENTS 目 录 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 需求表现良好，豆粕偏强震荡 （豆粕周报8.4-8.8） 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 每周提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 基本面影响因素概览 | 项目 | 概况 | 驱动 | 下周预期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 天气 | 美国大豆部分产区天气短 | 偏空 | 美国大豆产区天气短期正 | | | 期整体良好 | | 常。中性或偏空 | | 进口成本 | 美豆震荡回落，中美关税 | 偏空 | 进口成本预计维持震荡，中 | | | 谈判和美豆天气仍有变数 | | 性或偏空 | | 油厂压榨 | 豆粕需求短期预期尚好， | 偏空 | 需求短期改善偏淡，油厂开 | | | 油厂压榨量维持高位 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to return to a range - bound pattern in the short term, with the M2509 contract oscillating between 2980 and 3040. The US soybean market is affected by factors such as weather and Sino - US tariff negotiations, and the domestic soybean meal market is influenced by import volume and inventory [8]. - The domestic soybean market is also expected to be range - bound, with the A2509 contract fluctuating between 4080 and 4180. It is affected by factors like South American soybean harvest, import volume, and domestic production expectations [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The soybean meal M2509 is expected to oscillate between 2980 and 3040, and the soybean A2509 is expected to oscillate between 4080 and 4180 [8][10]. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiation progress is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean planting weather is relatively good recently, and the short - term US market has oscillated downward, expected to oscillate around the 1000 - point mark [12]. - The domestic import soybean arrival volume remained high in July, the oil mill soybean meal inventory continued to rise, and the soybean meal market returned to an oscillating pattern [12]. - The reduction in domestic pig breeding profit has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The recent increase in soybean meal demand supports the price expectation, and the uncertainty in Sino - US trade negotiations has led the soybean meal market to return to a range - bound pattern [12]. - The domestic oil mill soybean meal inventory continues to rise. There is still a possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean production area and uncertainties in the Sino - US tariff war, so the soybean meal market will maintain short - term oscillations [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low domestic oil mill soybean meal inventory, and uncertain US soybean production area weather [13]. - Bearish factors: high domestic import soybean arrival volume in July and the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest with a continuous expectation of South American soybean bumper harvest [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market and the expectation of increased domestic soybean demand [14]. - Bearish factors: continuous expectation of Brazilian soybean bumper harvest and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Provide data on harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2015 to 2024 for the global market and from 2015 to 2024 for the domestic market [31][32]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: Include the 2023/24 Argentina soybean planting and harvest progress, 2024 US soybean planting, growth, and harvest progress, 2024/25 Brazilian and Argentine soybean planting and harvest progress [33][34][38]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: Show data from January to July 2025, including harvest area, yield, production, ending inventory, old - crop exports, crushing, and Brazilian and Argentine soybean production [41]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival Volume**: The peak of imported soybean arrival volume was postponed to June, with an overall increase [44]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal, the main long positions decreased, and funds flowed out, but it is still considered bullish [8]. - For soybeans, the main long positions increased, and funds flowed out, also considered bullish [10].