Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal M2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2960 - 3020. The US soybean market is affected by trade negotiations and weather, while the domestic soybean meal market is influenced by factors such as imported soybean arrivals and spot - price discounts [9]. - The soybean A2601 is predicted to fluctuate between 4040 - 4140. The domestic soybean market is supported by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand, but is also pressured by factors like Brazilian soybean production and domestic soybean yield expectations [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - The soybean meal M2601 is in a neutral position in terms of fundamentals, with a bearish sentiment in basis, a bullish sentiment in inventory, a neutral sentiment in the market trend, and a bearish sentiment in the main - position and expected trends [9]. - The soybean A2601 is neutral in fundamentals, neutral in basis, bearish in inventory, bullish in the market trend, bearish in the main - position, and has a complex expected trend affected by multiple factors [11]. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations are at a stalemate, which is short - term negative for US soybeans. The domestic imported soybean arrivals in October remain high, and the demand for soybean meal has weakened, but the market is still in an oscillating pattern due to uncertainties [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Soybean Meal** - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, and uncertain weather in US soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: high volume of imported soybeans in October and the expected high - yield of US soybeans [14]. - Current main logic: focus on US soybean harvest weather and Sino - US trade tariff game [14]. - **Soybeans** - Bullish factors: cost support of imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans [15]. - Bearish factors: high - yield of Brazilian soybeans and increased procurement, and the expected increase in domestic soybean yield [15]. - Current main logic: focus on US soybean weather and Sino - US trade tariff game [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Price and Spread** - The soybean meal futures have rebounded after reaching the bottom, while the spot price is relatively stable, with a small - fluctuating spot discount [23]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract oscillates at a low level [29]. - **Inventory and Production** - The inventory of oil - mill soybeans remains high, and the soybean meal inventory has declined from the high level. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remains high, and the soybean meal production in August increased year - on - year [47][51]. - The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have declined from the high level, and the demand for off - season stockpiling has decreased [49]. - **Supply and Demand Balance** - Global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance tables show the changes in harvest area, production, consumption, and inventory over the years [32][33]. - **Sowing and Harvest Progress** - The sowing and harvest progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina in different years are presented, including the sowing rate, harvest rate, and other data [34][35][38][39][40][41][42]. - **USDA Reports** - The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports in the past six months show the changes in planting area, yield, production, and other data of soybeans [43]. 5. Position Data - There is no specific content in the given text related to summarizing position data, so this part is skipped.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to remain range - bound in the short term, influenced by the US soybean harvest weather, Sino - US trade negotiations, and the arrival of imported soybeans. The soybean market will also be affected by these factors, along with domestic soybean production and demand [10][11]. - The main factors affecting the soybean meal market include the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations, the inventory level of domestic oil mills, and the weather in the US soybean - producing areas. For soybeans, the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand are positive factors, while the high - yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic production are negative factors [14][15]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Weekly Hints No specific content provided for weekly hints. 3.2 Recent News - Sino - US trade negotiations are deadlocked, which is a short - term negative for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on soybean growth, harvest conditions, and the outcome of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remains high in October. The inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills has declined from a high level. The soybean meal market has returned to a range - bound pattern [13]. - The profit of domestic pig farming has decreased, leading to a low expectation of pig replenishment, which suppresses the price expectation of soybean meal. However, the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations keeps the soybean meal market in a range - bound pattern [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Uncertainty in Sino - US trade negotiations, relatively low inventory of domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in October and the expected high - yield of South American soybeans [14]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: Cost support from imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand [15]. - Bearish factors: High - yield of Brazilian soybeans and increased purchases of Brazilian soybeans by China, as well as the expected increase in domestic soybean production [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data Soybean Meal - The inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills was 1.1892 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.86% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.04%. The basis is - 23, indicating a discount to the futures price [10]. - The price is above the 20 - day moving average but moving downward. The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed out [10]. Soybeans - The inventory of soybeans in domestic oil mills was 7.1991 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.63% and a year - on - year increase of 14.38%. The basis is 4, indicating a slight discount to the futures price [11]. - The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upward. The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed in [11]. 3.5 Position Data The main short positions in the soybean meal market have increased, and funds have flowed out. In the soybean market, the main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed in [10][11]. 3.6 Fundamental Impact Factors Overview | Project | Situation | Driver | Next - week Expectation | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Weather | Short - term normal weather in some US soybean - producing areas | Neutral | Good short - term weather in US soybean - producing areas, neutral or bearish | | Import Cost | US soybeans are oscillating, and there are still variables in Sino - US tariffs, trade negotiations, and US soybean weather | Neutral | Expected to oscillate weakly, neutral or bearish | | Oil Mill Pressing | The short - term demand for soybean meal is expected to decline, while the pressing volume of oil mills remains high | Bearish | Short - term demand is weak, and the operation rate of oil mills is expected to decline from a high level, bullish | | Transaction | The enthusiasm for downstream forward - stocking has declined | Bearish | Market transactions are expected to be low, neutral or bearish | | Oil Mill Inventory | The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has declined from a high level | Bullish | The operation rate of upstream oil mills will decline from a high level, and the inventory of oil mills is expected to continue to decline, bullish | [9] 3.7 Trading Strategies Soybean Meal - Futures: US soybeans are expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark in the short term, and soybean meal will also remain range - bound. The M2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 2800 and 3100, and short - term trading within the range is recommended [17]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [19]. Soybeans - Futures: The A2601 contract of soybeans is expected to oscillate between 4000 and 4200, and short - term trading within the range is recommended [20]. - Options: No specific option strategy provided for soybeans.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal M2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2920 - 2980. The domestic soybean meal may maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short - term, influenced by the US soybean trend, high imports of soybeans in October, and the spot price discount [8][9]. - The soybean A2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 4040 - 4140. The domestic soybean is affected by the high imports of soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production, but the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the price [10][11]. - The market focuses on the impact of US soybean harvesting weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game for both soybean meal and soybeans [14][15]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The soybean meal M2601 may maintain an oscillatory pattern. The fundamentals include the US soybean's oscillatory decline, high imports of soybeans in October, and the spot price discount. The inventory decreased compared to last week and last year, but the main position's short - selling increased and funds flowed out [9]. - The soybean A2601 may also oscillate. The fundamentals are affected by the US soybean situation, high imports of soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the price [11]. 2. Recent News - The Sino - US tariff negotiation is in a stalemate, which is short - term negative for US soybeans. The US soybean is oscillating above the thousand - point mark, waiting for further guidance on the growth and harvesting of US soybeans, imports of soybeans, and Sino - US tariff negotiations [13]. - The imports of soybeans in China remained high in October. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills decreased from the high level in October. The soybean meal is expected to oscillate in the short - term [13]. - The profit of pig farming in China decreased, leading to a low expectation of pig replenishment, which suppresses the price expectation of soybean meal. However, the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations keeps the soybean meal oscillating [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: high total imports of soybeans in October and the expected high yield of US soybeans [14]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost support of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [15]. - Bearish factors: high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the data of harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, end - inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2015 to 2024 [32]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the data of harvest area, initial inventory, production, imports, total supply, total consumption, end - inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2015 to 2024 [33]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress**: It includes the planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023/24 to 2025 [34][35][38][39][40][41][42]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Report**: It shows the planting area, yield per unit, production, end - inventory, new - bean exports, and other data of the US in the past six months [43]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival**: The arrival of imported soybeans decreased from the high level in October, with an overall year - on - year increase [46]. 5. Position Data - No specific position data summary is provided other than the increase of short positions in the main contracts of soybean meal and soybeans and the corresponding capital flow information [9][11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **M2601 Soybean Meal**: Expected to oscillate in the range of 2880 - 2940. Influenced by the U.S. soybean trend, high October imports, and spot price discounts, it will likely maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern [9]. - **A2601 Soybeans**: Forecasted to fluctuate between 4000 - 4100. Affected by Sino - U.S. trade negotiations, high imports, and domestic production increase expectations, it will be subject to short - term interactive impacts [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - Not provided in the report. 3.2 Recent News - Sino - U.S. tariff negotiations are deadlocked, causing short - term negative impacts on U.S. soybeans. The U.S. soybean market will oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance [13]. - Domestic soybean imports in October remain at a relatively high level, and oil - mill soybean meal inventories have declined from their highs. The soybean meal market has returned to an oscillatory pattern [13]. - Reduced domestic pig - farming profits have led to low expectations for pig restocking, weakening soybean meal demand in October and suppressing price expectations [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - **Positive Factors**: Slow customs clearance for imported soybeans, low inventory pressure on oil - mill soybean meal, and uncertain U.S. soybean - growing area weather [14]. - **Negative Factors**: High total domestic soybean imports in October and the expected U.S. soybean harvest and bumper crop [14]. - **Main Logic**: Market focus on U.S. soybean harvest weather and Sino - U.S. trade tariff games [14]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - **Positive Factors**: Cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic soybean price floor, and expected increased domestic soybean demand supports price expectations [15]. - **Negative Factors**: Bumper Brazilian soybean crops and increased Chinese purchases, as well as expected domestic soybean production increases, suppress price expectations [15]. - **Main Logic**: Market focus on U.S. soybean weather and Sino - U.S. trade tariff games [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: Spot price in East China is 2860, with a basis of - 25, indicating a discount to futures. Oil - mill soybean meal inventory is 118.92 tons, a 4.86% month - on - month decrease and a 3.04% year - on - year decrease [9]. - **Soybeans**: Spot price is 4100, with a basis of 43, indicating a premium to futures. Oil - mill soybean inventory is 719.91 tons, a 3.63% month - on - month increase and a 14.38% year - on - year increase [11]. 3.5 Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main short positions have decreased, and funds have flowed in [9]. - **Soybeans**: The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed out [11]. 3.6 Other Market Data - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices**: From October 14 - 22, soybean and meal futures and spot prices showed certain fluctuations. For example, the soybean meal futures price fluctuated between 2885 - 2917, and the spot price between 2860 - 2900 [18]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: From October 13 - 22, soybean and meal warehouse receipts changed. For instance, the soybean meal warehouse receipt decreased from 41285 to 42582 [20]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Provide historical data on global and domestic soybean supply - demand balances, including harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory [32][33]. - **Soybean Planting, Growth, and Harvest Progress**: Include data on the planting, growth, and harvest progress of soybeans in the U.S., Brazil, and Argentina from 2023 - 2025 [34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: Show the planting area, yield, output, and other data of U.S. soybeans in the past six months [43]. - **Soybean Import and Related Market Conditions**: U.S. soybean weekly export inspections have rebounded month - on - month but declined year - on - year. Domestic soybean imports in October have decreased from their highs but increased year - on - year. Oil - mill soybean inventories remain high, and soybean meal inventories have decreased from their highs [44][46][47]. - **Pig Market Conditions**: Pig inventories are rising, sow inventories are flat year - on - year and slightly declining month - on - month. Pig prices have recently fallen again, and piglet prices remain weak. Domestic large - pig ratios have increased, and secondary fattening costs have risen slightly. Pig - farming profits have recently worsened [55][57][59][61].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal M2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2900 - 2960. The domestic soybean meal may maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short - term, influenced by factors such as the demand turning weak, high import soybean arrivals in October, and the spot price discount [9]. - The soybean A2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3940 - 4040. It is affected by the cost support of imported soybeans, the expected increase in domestic soybean demand, as well as the high arrivals of imported soybeans and the expected increase in the production of new domestic soybeans [11]. - The market focuses on the impact of the US soybean harvest weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game for both soybean meal and soybeans [14][15]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the document 2. Recent News - The Sino - US tariff negotiation remains deadlocked, which is a short - term negative for US soybeans. The US soybean market oscillates above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on the growth and harvest of US soybeans, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff negotiation [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remains at a relatively high level in October. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has declined from a high level in October. The soybean meal has returned to an oscillatory pattern in the short - term [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to a low expectation of pig restocking, weakening the demand for soybean meal in October and suppressing the price expectation of soybean meal [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and variable weather in the US soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: high total arrivals of imported soybeans in China in October, the harvest and listing of US soybeans, and the continuous expectation of a bumper US soybean harvest [14]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [15]. - Bearish factors: a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the production of new domestic soybeans [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and total supply of soybeans generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated [32]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and import volume of domestic soybeans changed, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [33]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean Price and Transaction Data**: The transaction price and volume of soybean meal and soybeans have changed from September 26 to October 14. The price of soybean meal futures has shown a weak oscillation, while the spot price has been relatively stable, and the spot discount has slightly narrowed [16][18][23]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: The number of warehouse receipts for soybeans and soybean meal has changed from September 24 to October 14 [20]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the document 6. Soybean Meal and Soybean Views and Strategies Soybean Meal - **Range**: 2900 - 2960 [9]. - **Fundamentals**: US soybeans oscillated and closed lower. The domestic soybean meal oscillated and declined due to short - term weakening demand and technical consolidation [9]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2890 (East China), with a basis of - 12, indicating a discount to the futures [9]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is 118.92 million tons, a 4.86% decrease from last week and a 3.04% decrease compared to the same period last year [9]. - **Disk**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward [9]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main players have decreased, and funds have flowed in [9]. Soybeans - **Range**: 3940 - 4040 [11]. - **Fundamentals**: US soybeans oscillated and closed lower. The domestic soybeans oscillated and recovered, supported by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in demand, but suppressed by high arrivals of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [11]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4100, with a basis of 133, indicating a premium to the futures [11]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybeans in oil mills is 719.91 million tons, a 3.63% increase from last week and a 14.38% increase compared to the same period last year [11]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average but moving downward [11]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main players have increased, and funds have flowed in [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short - term. Factors such as the stalemate in Sino - US tariff negotiations, weather in US soybean - producing areas, and the volume of imported soybeans will influence the market. The US soybean market is also in a state of oscillation, with the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations and weather conditions being the main drivers of short - and medium - term trends [10][34]. - The soybean market will also remain range - bound. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the price, while the bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production in the new season suppress the price [11][15]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Hints No relevant content provided. 3.2 Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations are at a stalemate with a possibility of escalation, which is negative for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating around the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on the harvest situation, Sino - US tariff negotiations, and the volume of imported soybeans [13]. - The volume of imported soybeans in China remained high in September, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills reached a relatively high level. The soybean meal market is expected to return to a range - bound pattern in the short - term [13]. - The decline in pig - farming profits in China has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. Although the demand for soybean meal increased from August to September, the market will still oscillate due to the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - **Likely Positive Factors**: Uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations, the relatively low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertainties in the weather of US soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The high volume of imported soybeans in October and the expected bumper harvest of South American soybeans [14]. Soybeans - **Likely Positive Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [15]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and increased purchases by China, as well as the expected increase in domestic soybean production in the new season [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Weather**: The weather in US soybean - producing areas is currently normal, with a neutral or bearish outlook in the short - term [9]. - **Import Cost**: The cost of imported soybeans is expected to oscillate weakly, with a neutral or bearish outlook due to uncertainties in Sino - US tariff negotiations and US soybean weather [9]. - **Oil Mill Pressing**: The demand for soybean meal is expected to decline in the short - term, and the oil mill's pressing volume has fallen from a high level. The oil mill's开机 rate is expected to decline from a high level, which is bullish [9]. - **Transaction**: The enthusiasm for downstream long - term stockpiling has declined, and market transactions are expected to be low, with a neutral or bearish outlook [9]. - **Oil Mill Inventory**: The soybean meal inventory of oil mills remains at a medium - high level. As the upstream开机 rate declines from a high level, the inventory is expected to fall from a high level, which is bullish [9]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided. 3.6 Soybean Meal and Soybean Views and Strategies Soybean Meal - **Fundamentals**: US soybeans are oscillating downward. The domestic soybean meal market is in a narrow - range oscillation, and it may return to an oscillating pattern in the short - term [10]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2900 (East China), with a basis of - 42, indicating a discount to the futures price, which is bearish [10]. - **Inventory**: The soybean meal inventory of oil mills is 118.92 million tons, a 4.86% decrease from last week and a 3.04% decrease from the same period last year, which is bullish [10]. - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward, which is bearish [10]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main players have decreased, and funds are flowing in, which is bearish [10]. - **Expectation**: The soybean meal market will maintain a range - bound pattern in the short - term, influenced by US soybeans [10]. Soybeans - **Fundamentals**: US soybeans are oscillating downward. The domestic soybean market is also oscillating downward, and it will be affected by Sino - US tariff negotiations and the volume of imported soybeans in the short - term [11]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4140, with a basis of 187, indicating a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [11]. - **Inventory**: The soybean inventory of oil mills is 719.91 million tons, a 3.63% increase from last week and a 14.38% increase from the same period last year, which is bearish [11]. - **Market**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average but moving downward, which is neutral [11]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main players have decreased, and funds are flowing out, which is bearish [11]. - **Expectation**: The soybean market will maintain a range - bound pattern, affected by multiple factors [11]. 3.7 Trading Strategies Soybean Meal - **Futures**: US soybeans are oscillating around the 1000 - point mark in the short - term, and soybean meal is expected to oscillate weakly. The M2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 2800 and 3000, and short - term range trading is recommended [17]. - **Options Strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money put options [19]. Soybeans - **Futures**: The A2511 contract of soybeans is expected to oscillate between 3800 and 4000, and short - term range trading is recommended [20]. - **Options Strategy**: Wait and see [20]. 3.8 Soybean and Soybean Meal Fundamentals (Supply - Demand and Inventory Structure) - **US Soybean Market**: The September USDA report had little impact. The US soybean market is oscillating due to the stalemate in Sino - US trade negotiations and relatively good weather. The bumper harvest of US soybeans is gradually being realized, suppressing the market outlook [34]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal Industry Chain**: The volume of imported soybeans in October is expected to decline from a high level. The soybean inventory of oil mills is at a high level, and the soybean meal inventory is expected to decline from a high level. The oil mill's pressing volume has decreased, and the unexecuted contracts have continued to decline [37][38][42]. - **Downstream Demand**: The demand for soybean meal is expected to be weak in the short - term. The pig - farming industry is in a state where the profit has declined, and the inventory of pigs is increasing slightly, while the inventory of sows is decreasing slightly [56]. 3.9 Technical Analysis Soybeans - The soybean futures market has bottomed out and rebounded, affected by the trend of US soybeans and the relative stability of domestic soybean spot prices. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD show that the market is in a technical rebound stage but with limited upward space, and it will return to a range - bound pattern, waiting for new guidance [66]. Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures market is maintaining a range - bound oscillation, affected by US soybeans, rapeseed meal, and domestic demand expectations. Technical indicators show that the market is in a technical consolidation stage, and whether it will rebound or adjust downward remains to be seen [69].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of soybeans and soybean meal. For soybean meal, it is expected to return to a volatile pattern in the short - term, with the M2601 contract oscillating between 2920 and 2980. For soybeans, the A2511 contract is expected to oscillate between 3880 and 3980. The market is mainly influenced by factors such as US soybean weather, Sino - US tariff negotiations, soybean supply and demand, and livestock farming conditions [8][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations are at a stalemate, and the US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark. The US soybean weather and Sino - US trade negotiations are in a critical period. The September USDA report has a relatively neutral impact. The domestic import of soybeans remains high in September, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills is at a relatively high level. The demand for soybean meal has rebounded in August and September, but the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations persists, and soybean meal has returned to an interval - oscillating pattern [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills, and variable weather in US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: high volume of imported soybeans in September, and the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest with a continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations [14]. - Bearish factors: a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the output of new domestic soybeans suppresses price expectations [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the global soybean harvest area, output, and total supply have generally shown an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio has also fluctuated and increased [31]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the domestic soybean harvest area, output, and import volume have changed, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio has also fluctuated [32]. - **Soybean and Meal Price Data**: The report provides price data for soybean and meal futures and spot markets from September 16 to 24, 2025, showing the price trends and price differences between futures and spot markets [15][17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: The report provides warehouse receipt data for soybeans and soybean meal from September 12 to 24, 2025, showing the changes in warehouse receipts [19]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided. Other Market Conditions - The export inspection of US soybeans has increased week - on - week and year - on - year. The arrival volume of imported soybeans has decreased from its high in September but has generally increased year - on - year. The soybean inventory of oil mills has reached a new high, and the soybean meal inventory has continued to increase. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have decreased from a high level. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has followed the decline of US soybeans, and the profit on the futures market has fluctuated slightly. The pig inventory has continued to rise, while the sow inventory has remained flat year - on - year and slightly decreased month - on - month. Pig prices have recently declined again, and piglet prices have remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in the country has increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has slightly increased. The domestic pig - farming profit has recently deteriorated [42][44][45].

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - The US soybean market is affected by factors such as weather uncertainties in the US soybean - producing areas, South American soybean harvest, and Sino - US trade relations. The domestic soybean and soybean meal markets are influenced by import volumes, demand, and price differentials, with short - term trends showing a return to a volatile pattern [8]. - The soybean meal M2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2980 - 3040 [8]. - The soybean A2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3840 - 3940 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - There is no specific content for this part in the report. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiation progress is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is awaiting the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations and the harvest weather in the US soybean - producing areas [12]. - The domestic import of soybeans remains at a relatively high level in August. The soybean meal market is affected by factors such as the US soybean weather, Sino - US trade negotiations, and the rise of rapeseed meal prices, showing short - term volatility [12]. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits leads to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has recently recovered, but due to uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations, the soybean meal market returns to a range - bound pattern [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - **Likely Positive Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low current soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills, and weather uncertainties in the US soybean - producing areas [13]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: High total volume of imported soybeans in September, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the expected high - yield of South American soybeans [13]. Soybeans - **Likely Positive Factors**: Cost support from imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The expected high - yield of Brazilian soybeans and the increase in domestic procurement of Brazilian soybeans, as well as the expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2920, with a basis of - 82, indicating a discount to futures. The oil mill's soybean meal inventory is 113.62 tons, a 5.32% increase from last week and a 15.76% decrease from the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price in Jiamusi is 4140, with a basis of 245, indicating a premium to futures. The oil mill's soybean inventory is 731.7 tons, a 5% increase from last week and a 6.17% increase from the same period last year [8][10]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main long positions have decreased, but there is capital inflow [8]. - **Soybeans**: The main long positions have increased, with capital inflow [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The soybean market in the US is affected by weather uncertainties in the production areas, South American soybean harvest, and China's import volume. The domestic soybean and bean meal markets are influenced by factors such as import volume, domestic demand, and production expectations. The short - term trend of domestic bean meal is in a volatile and relatively strong pattern, and the soybean and bean meal futures are expected to fluctuate within a certain range [8][10] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - No content provided on this part 2. Recent News - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is affected by relatively positive data from the US agricultural report and is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark. The domestic bean meal market is in a short - term volatile and relatively strong pattern, affected by factors such as the high arrival volume of imported soybeans in August, the price correction of rapeseed meal, and the uncertain weather in the US soybean production areas. It awaits further guidance on South American soybean production and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12] 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Bean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in the US soybean production areas. - Bearish factors: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in September, South American soybean harvest, and overall good planting weather for US soybeans [13] Soybean - Bullish factors: Cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans. - Bearish factors: Expected high - yield of Brazilian soybeans and expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production [14] 4. Fundamental Data - The daily trading data of bean meal and rapeseed meal from September 8 to September 16 show that the trading volume of bean meal fluctuates, and the price difference between bean meal and rapeseed meal also fluctuates slightly. The futures and spot prices of soybeans and bean meal from September 8 to September 16 show that the futures prices of soybeans and bean meal fluctuate, and the spot prices of soybeans remain stable while the spot prices of bean meal decline slightly. The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets show the changes in soybean supply and demand from 2015 to 2024, including harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory [15][17][32] 5. Position Data - No content provided on this part Bean Meal and Soybean Views and Strategies Bean Meal - Fundamental situation: US soybeans oscillate and rebound, while domestic bean meal oscillates and declines. It is expected to return to an oscillatory pattern in the short term. - Basis: The spot price in East China is 2950, with a basis of - 91, indicating a discount to futures. - Inventory: The oil mill's bean meal inventory is 113.62 tons, a 5.32% increase from last week and a 15.76% decrease from the same period last year. - Market trend: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward. - Main position: The main long positions decrease, and funds flow out. - Expectation: The bean meal M2601 is expected to oscillate between 3000 and 3060 [8] Soybean - Fundamental situation: US soybeans oscillate and rebound, while domestic soybeans oscillate and decline. It is affected by the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the peak arrival season of imported soybeans in the short term. - Basis: The spot price is 4200, with a basis of 276, indicating a premium to futures. - Inventory: The oil mill's soybean inventory is 731.7 tons, a 5% increase from last week and a 6.17% increase from the same period last year. - Market trend: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward. - Main position: The main long positions decrease, and funds flow in. - Expectation: The soybean A2511 is expected to oscillate between 3900 and 4000 [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to enter a moderately bullish and range - bound pattern. The price of soybean meal M2601 is expected to fluctuate between 3060 and 3120. Factors such as the uncertain weather in US soybean - producing areas support the bottom of the US soybean market, but the abundant harvest of South American soybeans and the overall good planting weather in the US limit the rebound height of the US soybean market. In addition, the increase in the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans in China affects the domestic soybean meal market [8]. - The soybean market is expected to be neutral and range - bound. The price of soybean A2511 is expected to fluctuate between 3900 and 4000. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the domestic soybean market, while the expected abundant harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production limit the upward space of the market [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is affected by relatively positive data from the US Department of Agriculture report and is expected to fluctuate above the 1000 - point mark. Future trends depend on the growth and harvest of US soybeans, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remained high in August. The soybean meal inventory of oil mills entered a relatively high level in August. Affected by relatively positive data from the August US Department of Agriculture report and the rise of rapeseed meal, the soybean meal market is short - term moderately bullish and range - bound [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits leads to a low expectation of pig replenishment. However, the recent recovery in soybean meal demand supports the price of soybean meal. Due to the uncertainty of China - US trade negotiations, the soybean meal market returns to a range - bound pattern [12]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills continues to rise. The possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - producing areas and the variables in the China - US tariff war affect the short - term moderately bullish and range - bound pattern of soybean meal. Future trends depend on the clear output of South American soybeans and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: high total arrival of imported soybeans in September, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of an abundant harvest of South American soybeans [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [14]. - Bearish factors: the continuous expectation of an abundant harvest of Brazilian soybeans, China's increased purchase of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2970, with a basis of - 118, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory of oil mills is 113.62 million tons, a 5.32% increase from last week and a 15.76% decrease from the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4200, with a basis of 255, indicating a premium to the futures. The inventory of oil mills is 731.7 million tons, a 5% increase from last week and a 6.17% increase from the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The long positions of the main contract decreased, and funds flowed out [8]. - **Soybeans**: The long positions of the main contract increased, and funds flowed in [10].