Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading above 9421, with an opening at 9300 and a current price of 9435, reflecting a 0.16% increase. The highest price reached was 9447, while the lowest was 9290, indicating a short-term oscillating trend in the market [1] - Analysts suggest that the resistance for silver is at 9447 and the range of 9451 to 9481, while support is near 9300. A drop below 9300 could lead to further declines towards 9100, whereas maintaining above 9300 would likely prevent significant downward movement [5] Group 2 - Trump's visit to the Federal Reserve headquarters comes just under a week before the two-day interest rate meeting, with market expectations leaning towards maintaining the current benchmark rate of 4.25%-4.50%. Trump has reiterated his desire for rate cuts to stimulate economic growth [3] - Despite previous threats to dismiss Fed Chair Powell, Trump stated that he sees no need to fire him, which is a surprising shift given their historically contentious relationship [3][4] - Analysts believe Trump's decision to avoid confrontation may be influenced by the current complex political and economic environment, as dismissing Powell could lead to market turmoil and impact Trump's political image [4]

日度报告——综合晨报 伊以冲突进入模糊阶段，中国 5 月经济数据 表现分化 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-06-17 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国拒绝支持 G7 发布敦促伊朗和以色列降级局势的声明 目前伊朗和以色列冲突进入到模糊阶段，伊朗诉求非常明确， 有需要降温的意愿，市场避险情绪短期降温，美元指数走弱。 宏观策略（国债期货） 中国 5 月经济数据表现分化 5 月经济数据表现分化，基本面仍然利多债市，但市场对此已有 深刻认知，基本面消息难以驱动债市进一步走强。 综 农产品（豆粕） 合 美豆优良率降 2%至 66% 晨 报 美国周度出口检验符合预期，NOPA 5 月压榨量为历史同期最高 但不及预期；上周美豆优良率下降 2%至 66%。国内进口巴西豆 成本上升；豆粕需求强劲，累库速度偏慢。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 2025 年 5 月中国粗钢产量 8655 万吨 5 月经济数据显示需求端整体变化不大，地产新开工面积降幅略 有收窄，销售面积降幅则略有扩大，需求没有特别超预期的变 化。短期能源价格对钢价略有支撑，但空间有限。 能源化工（原油） OPEC 月报：OPEC5 月产量环比上 ...

Group 1: Soybean Oil - Spot market: The price of Grade 1 soybean oil at Rizhao Cargill is 8,060 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - International soybeans: It's currently the U.S. soybean sowing season and the South American soybean harvesting and exporting season, with Brazil's soybean harvest almost completed. South American new - crop soybean is likely to have a bumper harvest [1] - Domestic industry: The medium - term destocking cycle of soybean oil may be ending. After the arrival of South American imported soybeans and customs clearance, the soybean oil inventory may rebound from a low level [1] - Reference view: The short - term trading of the soybean oil 2509 contract may fluctuate within a range [1] Group 2: Soybean Meal - Spot information: The spot prices of 43 soybean meal in different regions are: Zhangjiagang 3,100 yuan/ton (- 220), Tianjin 3,180 yuan/ton (- 120), Rizhao 3,090 yuan/ton (- 440), Dongguan 3,220 yuan/ton (- 160) [2] - Market analysis: The Sino - U.S. trade tariff issue remains unresolved, affecting Sino - U.S. soybean trade. The market focus has shifted to the North American sowing season, and Brazilian soybeans are about to enter the export peak. Currently, the spot supply of soybean meal is tight, but it will gradually ease as the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans restores oil mill operations. Post - holiday downstream restocking may boost short - term trading volume [2] - Reference view: Soybean meal may run weakly in the short term [2] Group 3: Corn - Spot information: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn are: 2,184 yuan/ton in key deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia; 2,404 yuan/ton in key enterprises in North China and Huanghuai; 2,260 - 2,270 yuan/ton at Jinzhou Port (15% moisture/680 - 720 bulk density); 2,250 - 2,270 yuan/ton at Bayuquan Port (680 - 730 bulk density/15% moisture) [3] - Market analysis: The Sino - U.S. tariff dispute has limited impact on the corn market due to China's decreasing import dependence and import substitution from Brazil. Domestically, the supply is gradually tightening due to factors such as the end of the harvest season, a sharp decrease in imports in the first quarter, and the price increase of new wheat. Downstream demand is weak, with cautious purchasing and low consumption [3] - Reference view: The domestic corn market is in the gap between old and new grains, and the corn price is likely to rise. Short - term trading should focus on long positions [3] Group 4: Copper - Spot information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78,030 - 78,350 yuan, up 240 yuan, with a premium of 250 - 320 yuan. The imported copper ore index is - 42.61, down 0.09 [4] - Market analysis: The global market is still affected by "irrational" tariffs, with high volatility in overseas capital markets. The Fed's uncertain actions add to the long - term uncertainty. Domestically, policies are boosting market sentiment. The raw material supply problem persists, and the rapid decline in domestic copper inventory intensifies the game between reality and expectations [5] - Reference view: The monthly K - line of copper price shows a balance between yin and yang. Attention should be paid to the suppression effect of the moving average system [5] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 66,850 yuan/ton (- 1,050 yuan/ton), and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 65,150 yuan/ton (- 1,050 yuan/ton). The price difference between the two remains unchanged at 1,700 yuan/ton [6] - Market analysis: The cost pressure is increasing, with lithium ore prices dropping rapidly and reducing smelting enterprises' profit margins. Supply is increasing, especially from the mica end, and the production capacity of salt - lake lithium extraction will further expand with rising temperatures. Demand has improved but is still insufficient to drive prices up [6] - Inventory: Weekly inventory has been accumulating. As of April 24, the weekly inventory is 131,864 (+ 259) physical tons. The monthly inventory in March is 90,070 physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 47% and a month - on - month increase of 17% [7] - Reference view: The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may fluctuate weakly. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [7] Group 6: Steel - Spot information: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,160 yuan, the Tangshan operation rate is 83.56%, the social inventory is 5.3276 million tons, and the rebar mill inventory is 2.004 million tons [8] - Market analysis: The fundamentals of steel are gradually improving, with the contango structure weakening and the current valuation being moderately low. Policy supports the real estate industry. The apparent demand for steel has decreased year - on - year, raw material prices have fluctuated weakly this week, and the cost center of steel is dynamically changing. Both social and mill inventories are decreasing, and the overall inventory level is low. Short - term macro - policy expectations dominate the market, and the market shows a pattern of strong supply and demand [8] - Reference view: After the macro - negative factors are digested, a long - position strategy at low prices for far - month contracts after May is recommended [8] Group 7: Coking Coal and Coke - Spot information: The price of coking coal (clean coal, Meng 5) is 1,205 yuan/ton; the price of metallurgical coke (Grade 1) at Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton; the port inventory of imported coking coal is 3.3738 million tons; the port inventory of coke is 2.461 million tons [9] - Market analysis: Supply is relatively loose, with domestic production capacity recovering steadily and the coking plant utilization rate stable. Mongolian coal imports remain at a high level. Demand is weak, with steel mills reducing production and iron - water output expected to decline. Independent coking enterprises maintain low raw - material inventories, and the overall inventory is slightly increasing. The average profit per ton of coke is stable and approaching the break - even point [9] - Reference view: Due to the loose supply, coking coal and coke may have a weak rebound with limited upside potential [9] Group 8: Iron Ore - Spot information: The Platts iron ore index is 98.15, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 765 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 760 yuan [10] - Market analysis: The iron ore market has both positive and negative factors. Supply has decreased slightly, with Australian shipments falling and Brazilian shipments rising. Port inventory has decreased by 1.1239 million tons. Demand has increased, with domestic steel mills' iron - water output rising, but steel mills' raw - material procurement remains cautious. Overseas demand is differentiated, and the U.S. tariff policy has increased price volatility [10] - Reference view: The short - term trading of the iron ore 2505 contract may be weak and fluctuate. Traders are advised to be cautious [10] Group 9: Crude Oil - Market analysis: OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, and the market expects an oversupply. The price of WTI crude oil may decline, but it has technical support at 55 dollars/barrel. The U.S. trade war and the delay of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks have increased uncertainty, and the second - quarter demand may be severely affected [11] - Reference view: Pay attention to the follow - up trend of the domestic market as WTI has support at 55 dollars/barrel [11] Group 10: Rubber - Market analysis: The impact of the U.S. "reciprocal tariff" on rubber prices has been mostly priced in, and the market is now driven by fundamentals. The supply is relatively loose, with domestic and Southeast Asian rubber plantations starting to harvest. The U.S. automobile tariff may suppress global rubber demand. Attention should be paid to domestic rubber imports and inventory changes [11] - Reference view: Pay attention to the downstream operation rate of Shanghai rubber. The main contract may rebound near the support level of 14,000 yuan/ton [11] Group 11: PVC - Spot information: The mainstream price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4,700 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous period; the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price difference between the two is 350 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [12] - Market analysis: The PVC production enterprise operation rate increased by 0.70% week - on - week to 79.33% last week. Domestic downstream demand has not improved significantly, with mainly rigid - demand transactions. As of April 30, the PVC social inventory decreased by 4.94% week - on - week to 653,700 tons [12] - Reference view: Due to the weak demand, the futures price may fluctuate at a low level [12] Group 12: Soda Ash - Spot information: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,414.69 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream prices in East China, North China, and Central China are also unchanged [13] - Market analysis: Before the holiday, the overall operation rate of soda ash was 89.44%, down 0.06% week - on - week, and the production was 755,100 tons, down 0.05 million tons. The inventory of manufacturers decreased by 20,300 tons to 1.691 million tons, and the social inventory also decreased. Demand is average, with downstream enterprises only replenishing inventory for low - price goods [13] - Reference view: After the holiday, the futures market may fluctuate widely in the short term [13]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the reports 2. Core Views - **Soybean and Related Products**: Soybean oil 2509 contract may fluctuate within a range in the short - term; soybean meal may oscillate weakly; after the holiday, the Dalian Commodity Exchange corn price is expected to follow the foreign market, but domestic factors will dominate later [1] - **Copper**: The monthly K - line of copper price shows a balance between yin and yang, and attention should be paid to the suppression effect of the moving average system [2] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The 2507 contract of lithium carbonate may oscillate weakly, and short - selling on rallies is advisable [3][4] - **Steel**: After the macro - negative factors are digested, a long - position strategy can be considered for the far - month contracts at low levels after May [5] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Due to the loose supply, coking coal and coke may have a weak rebound at low levels, with limited upside space [6] - **Iron Ore**: The 2505 contract of iron ore may decline with oscillations in the short - term [7] - **Crude Oil**: The WTI main contract has support at $55 per barrel, and the domestic market may offset the decline during the holiday, with neutral fluctuations [8] - **Rubber**: Attention should be paid to the downstream operation rate of Shanghai rubber, and the main contract has support at around 14,000 yuan per ton [9] - **PVC**: The futures price may oscillate at a low level due to weak demand [10] - **Soda Ash**: After the holiday, the futures market is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term [11] 3. Summary by Commodity Soybean and Related Products - **Market Conditions**: As of May 2, the US soybean and soybean oil futures rose. South American new - crop soybeans are likely to have a bumper harvest. The mid - term de - stocking cycle of domestic soybean oil may end, and the inventory may rebound. The supply of domestic soybean meal is expected to ease, and the downstream will start restocking [1] - **Spot Information**: 43% soybean meal prices in Tianjin, Rizhao, and Dongguan are 3300 yuan/ton, 3530 yuan/ton, and 3380 yuan/ton respectively; new - corn purchase prices in different regions are provided [1] Copper - **Market Conditions**: The global market is affected by tariffs, and the overseas capital market is highly volatile. The Fed's actions are uncertain. Domestically, policies are boosting market sentiment. The raw material supply of copper still has problems, and the price is in a resonance state [2] - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 77840 - 78060 yuan, down 85 yuan, with a premium of 200 - 260 yuan [2] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Conditions**: The cost of lithium carbonate is decreasing as the price of spodumene concentrate drops. Supply is increasing with a slowdown in growth rate, and the resumption of production at salt lakes may impact prices. Demand has improved but lacks upward momentum [3] - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory has been accumulating. As of April 24, the total inventory was 131,864 tons, with increases in smelter and downstream inventories [4] - **Spot Information**: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 67,900 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade (99.2%) is 662,000 yuan/ton [3] Steel - **Market Conditions**: The fundamentals of steel are improving, with a weakening contango structure and a neutral - low valuation. Policy supports the real estate industry. The cost of steel is dynamic, and inventories are decreasing [5] - **Spot Information**: Shanghai rebar price is 3160 yuan, with social and mill inventories of 532.76 million tons and 200.4 million tons respectively [5] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Conditions**: Supply is relatively loose, with stable domestic production and high - level Mongolian coal imports. Demand is weak due to steel mill production cuts. Inventories are slightly increasing, and profit is approaching the break - even point [6] - **Spot Information**: The price of main coking coal and metallurgical coke at different ports is provided, along with port inventories [6] Iron Ore - **Market Conditions**: Supply and demand factors are mixed. Australian shipments have decreased, while Brazilian shipments are rising. Port inventories have decreased, and domestic steel mill demand has increased, but procurement is still cautious. Trade - war concerns limit price increases [7] - **Spot Information**: Iron ore indexes and prices of different types of iron ore are provided [7] Crude Oil - **Market Conditions**: OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, and the market expects oversupply. The WTI main contract has support at $55 per barrel [8] - **Spot Information**: Not provided Rubber - **Market Conditions**: The impact of US tariffs on rubber prices has been mostly priced in. The supply is increasing as domestic and Southeast Asian rubber trees start to be tapped. Demand may be affected by trade - war factors [8] - **Spot Information**: Not provided PVC - **Market Conditions**: The production rate of PVC has increased, but downstream demand has not improved significantly. Social inventories have decreased [10] - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of PVC and the price difference are provided [10] Soda Ash - **Market Conditions**: The production of soda ash is stable, and inventories are decreasing. Demand is average, with a preference for low - price products. The market sentiment has improved, but the fundamental driving force is weak [11] - **Spot Information**: The mainstream prices of heavy soda ash in different regions are provided [11]