Group 1 - President Trump advocates for the complete elimination of the debt ceiling to avoid economic disaster, aligning with Senator Warren's views [1] - The Republican Party is pushing for a comprehensive legislative package that includes a new round of tax cuts, while facing a potential deadline to raise the debt ceiling before August [1][2] - The House version of the tax and spending bill proposes significant cuts to Medicaid by $700 billion and SNAP by $300 billion, raising concerns from six Nobel laureates about the impact on essential social safety nets [3] Group 2 - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that the House Republican tax legislation could increase the national debt by $2.4 trillion by 2034 [4] - Elon Musk expresses concerns about the U.S. heading towards "debt servitude" and suggests drafting a new spending bill to avoid significant deficit increases [4]

美国管理和预算局主任Vought：白宫不支持将债务上限从调解法案中剔除。 ...

特朗普：债务上限应彻底取消 以避免经济灾难 金十数据6月5日讯，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体最新发文："我非常高兴地宣布，经过这么多年，我终 于在某件事上与美国民主党参议员沃伦达成了共识 ：债务上限应彻底取消，以避免经济灾难。将其交 由政客们掌控实在是太危险了——即便这可能对我们国家（甚至间接对全世界）造成可怕影响，仍有政 客想利用债务上限谋取政治利益。至于沃伦参议员关于4万亿美元的第二次声明，我也很喜欢，但这必 须在一个尽可能短的时间内完成。让我们共和党和民主党携手合作，做成这件事！" ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump advocates for the complete elimination of the debt ceiling [1] Group 1 - The proposal to eliminate the debt ceiling could have significant implications for fiscal policy and government spending [1] - This stance may influence market perceptions regarding U.S. government creditworthiness and fiscal responsibility [1]

特朗普力推的《大漂亮法案》在众议院以微弱优势通过后，参议院成为决定其命运的关键。 最具争议的是，法案包含了将债务上限从4万亿提升至5万亿美元的条款，这一举措成为共和党内部的关 注焦点。参议员Rand Paul联合至少3名同僚强硬反对，威胁让法案夭折。美财政部长警告，如果不提高 债务上限，8月即将触及债务上限"X日期"。 参议院微妙平衡：三票定乾坤 据媒体最新报道，美国共和党在参议院仅有微弱多数，任何三名议员的反对都可能让法案夭折。 参议院多数党领袖John Thune面临与众议院议长Mike Johnson同样严峻的数学难题。5月份众议院版本仅 以1票优势惊险过关，为参议院博弈埋下不祥预兆。 比如众议院议员Chip Roy虽然投了赞成票，但其后在社交媒体上直言法案"必须在后续版本中得到改 善"。 债务上限：博弈主战场 参议院多数党领袖John Thune面临党内不同派系的拉锯：财政鹰派要求进一步削减开支，温和派则对医 保等社会项目的削减表示担忧。而债务上限是博弈的主战场。 报道称，参议员Rand Paul成为债务上限条款最直接的反对者。Paul在电视节目中明确表态： 如果债务上限条款被移除，我很可能会对法案其 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Yellen, asserts that the U.S. will never default on its debt, aiming to alleviate concerns from Wall Street regarding the country's fiscal situation, especially in light of warnings from JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon about a potential collapse in the U.S. bond market [1][2]. Group 1: Treasury Secretary's Statements - Yellen emphasizes that the U.S. will not hit a fiscal wall and will remain vigilant regarding its debt obligations [1]. - She refrains from disclosing the "X date," which refers to when the Treasury will exhaust its cash and special accounting measures to meet federal obligations under the debt ceiling [1]. - Yellen predicts that if the debt ceiling is not raised or suspended, the U.S. could run out of borrowing authority before August [1]. Group 2: Response to Wall Street Concerns - Yellen counters Dimon's warning about a potential collapse in the U.S. bond market, stating that such predictions have not materialized in the past [2]. - The Congressional Budget Office has warned that without new budget legislation, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio will exceed levels not seen since the 1940s [2]. - Moody's has recently downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating, following similar actions by other major rating agencies [2]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy and Projections - Yellen argues that many forecasts do not account for significant revenue increases from Trump's new import tariffs, which could generate trillions in government revenue [3]. - She claims that the government's budget deficit this year will be lower than last year's, with further reductions expected in two years [3].

Group 1 - Moody's has downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, marking the loss of the last "AAA" rating among major international rating agencies, primarily due to the increasing scale of U.S. government debt and its interest payment ratio [1] - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, predicts that U.S. debt could reach $50 trillion by 2035, suggesting that Moody's has underestimated the risks associated with U.S. Treasury bonds [1] - Goldman Sachs' president John Waldron indicates that the focus in the bond market is shifting from tariff disputes to the rising U.S. government debt, which is pushing up long-term interest rates, particularly the 30-year Treasury yield, to its highest level in nearly two decades [1] Group 2 - Concerns among foreign investors regarding U.S. Treasury bonds are rising due to high inflation and a weakening dollar, which could diminish the actual value of their holdings [2] - The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting minutes highlighted that the volatility in the U.S. bond market poses risks to financial stability, with potential long-term impacts on the U.S. economy if the dollar's safe-haven status changes [2] - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $34 trillion, with the government caught in a vicious cycle of fiscal deficits, borrowing, and high-interest repayments [2] Group 3 - The pressure from maturing U.S. debt is described as "rolling," with a significant increase in the monthly maturity scale since the Fed's interest rate hikes began in 2022 [3] - The U.S. national debt reached its statutory limit at the beginning of the year, restricting new debt issuance, which could lead to increased maturity pressure if Congress does not raise or suspend the debt ceiling before August [3] - The U.S. debt crisis reflects broader concerns about government credit and is fundamentally a monetary crisis, emphasizing the need for balance in domestic inflation control and external dollar confidence [3]

期指：或有所回稳，整体震荡格局不变 金 融 期 货 研 究 2025 年 5 月 28 日 | | | 毛磊 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 | | maolei@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【期指期现数据跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | | 期指数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | 沪深300 | 3839.4 | ↓0.54 | | 1784.7 | | | | | | IF2506 | 3809.2 | ↓0.51 | -30.2 | 624.4 | 54529 | ↓8334 | 140116 | ↑1334 | | IF2507 | 3771.4 | ↓0.48 | -68 | 41.4 | 3656 | ↑632 | 8864 | ↑1710 | | IF2509 | 3740 | ↓0.48 | -99.4 | 157.8 | 14045 ...

标普500涨超2%创逾两周最大涨幅，美债、日债走高，美元指数反弹，原油期货跌1%，黄金期货 大跌近2%。 美国5月消费者信心创四年来最大增幅。 特朗普罕见赞赏欧盟：对加快贸易谈判感到鼓舞。 报道：特朗普政府拟审查留学生社交媒体，美国暂停学生新签证面试。 被债务上限"卡脖子"，美国财政部削减短债发行规模。 日本财政部罕见"摸底"债市，考虑削减超长债发行，日债暴力反弹。 特朗普怒喷苹果，报道称导火索可能是库克没跟着去中东。 报道称日本新日铁将以每股55美元收购美国钢铁，"黄金股"确保美方控制权。 拼多多Q1净利润下滑47%， 营销费用激增43%，生态投资牺牲短期盈利；电话会：增长放缓不可 避免，面对竞争和不确定性，平台牺牲是必须的。 小米Q1收入及净利润均创新高，智能大家电收入同比暴增113.8%；电话会：完全不担心YU7对 SU7销量的影响，SU7无需降价，未来YU7销量可参考Model Y。 快手Q1营收增长10.9%，可灵AI收入超过1.5亿元。 提醒：新西兰联储周三将公布利率决议，料降息25个基点。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury is reducing the issuance of short-term Treasury bills due to the ongoing debt ceiling impasse, with a planned issuance of $75 billion for four-week bills, down $10 billion from the previous issuance [1] - The Treasury's reduction in short-term debt issuance marks the beginning of a prolonged government financing tightening, with money market funds reducing their allocation to U.S. Treasuries by $278 billion since the beginning of the year [1] - The allocation of money market funds to U.S. Treasuries has decreased from nearly 41% at the end of 2024 to below 38%, while repo agreements have surged by $231 billion, increasing their share from 36% to nearly 39% [1] Group 2 - Treasury Secretary Yellen warned that without raising or suspending the debt ceiling before August, the Treasury could exhaust all means to avoid hitting the borrowing limit [2] - As of May 21, the Treasury had only $67 billion left from "extraordinary measures" to maintain government operations, a decrease from approximately $82 billion on May 14, indicating that about 82% of the available funds have been utilized [2] - The Treasury has net repaid approximately $183 billion in short-term debt supply as of May 29, and further delays in the debt ceiling resolution will necessitate more supply reductions [2] Group 3 - The current debt ceiling stalemate has disrupted the usual rhythm of debt issuance, which typically sees an increase after the tax season [3] - Congressional Republicans are working on a legislative plan to raise the debt ceiling by about $5 trillion, primarily aimed at extending and expanding tax cuts implemented in 2017 [3] - Treasury Secretary Yellen emphasized the importance of raising or suspending the debt ceiling before the mid-July recess to maintain the U.S. government's creditworthiness [3] Group 4 - The shift in fund flows within money market funds is a direct response to the political deadlock in Washington, indicating market participants' reactions to the ongoing situation [4]