华尔街日报调查显示，尽管人们对美国总统特朗普的税收法案和关税计划不满，但对经济的乐观看法正 在巩固他的政治地位。 ...

Group 1 - The Speaker of the House, Johnson, expressed disappointment with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, while President Trump criticized Powell for high interest rates [1][2] - Johnson is open to modifying the Federal Reserve Act of 1913, which was last significantly amended by the Dodd-Frank Act in 2010, aimed at enhancing bank regulation post-financial crisis [2][3] - Johnson emphasized the need for careful consideration before any legal modifications regarding the Federal Reserve's jurisdiction, highlighting the complexities involved [3] Group 2 - House Republicans are initiating work on a follow-up tax and spending bill to address issues left unresolved in Trump's "big and beautiful" legislation, with plans for a smaller tax bill to be introduced in the "deep fall" [3][4] - The Republican party successfully united a fractured majority around a comprehensive bill to extend Trump's 2017 tax cuts, allocate over $300 billion for defense, border, and immigration spending, and raise the debt ceiling by $50 billion [4]

惠誉评级：这一税收法案和先前减税措施的延长相结合，很可能使政府总赤字保持在GDP的7%以上， 并在2029年将债务与GDP之比推高至135%。 ...

Group 1 - The resilience of the US stock market is highlighted despite the recent announcement of new tariff policies, driven by fiscal spending and strong earnings outlook for large-cap stocks [1][2] - The limited exposure of S&P 500 companies to import costs due to current exemptions and the belief that recent tariff rates are not final contribute to the market's stability [2] - The new tax legislation, referred to as the "Big and Beautiful" tax bill, is expected to support large-cap indices by reducing effective cash tax rates and benefiting sectors like technology and healthcare [3] Group 2 - There has been a significant improvement in corporate earnings expectations, with revisions moving from -25% in mid-April to +3% currently, which is expected to support market performance [4] - The anticipated earnings growth for the S&P 500 index in Q2 is projected at 4% year-over-year, with the "seven giants" expected to see a net profit growth of 14%, significantly outpacing other companies [4] - Ongoing uncertainties regarding tariffs and their impact on profit margins remain a concern, with potential adjustments in earnings guidance depending on trade negotiations [4]

Market Overview - Strong U.S. employment data has alleviated market concerns regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a significant increase in the U.S. dollar index, which rose to a high of 97.42 before closing at 97.08, up 0.32% [1][2] - The precious metals market showed mixed results, with spot gold experiencing a substantial decline, dropping to a low of $3311.65, a decrease of over $50 from its daily high, ultimately closing down 0.94% at $3325.50 per ounce [1][2] - Spot silver, while also retreating, saw a strong rebound, closing up 0.78% at $36.82 per ounce [1][2] Employment Data - The Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report indicated an increase of 147,000 jobs in the U.S., surpassing the June expectation of 110,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate decreasing from 4.2% to 4.1% [3] - Weekly jobless claims fell from 237,000 to 233,000, reflecting resilience in the U.S. labor market [3] - The ADP employment change for June marked the first decline in over two years, with a reduction of 33,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 95,000 jobs [3] Manufacturing and Job Vacancies - The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index improved from 48.5 in May to 49.0 in June, exceeding expert expectations of 48.8, indicating a slight recovery in U.S. manufacturing activity [4] - Job openings in the U.S. rose from 4.395 million in April to 4.76 million in May, surpassing the market expectation of 7.3 million [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the tax legislation is considered fiscally prudent and beneficial for growth according to the U.S. Treasury Secretary [1] Group 2 - The market indicates a positive reception towards the tax bill, suggesting confidence in its economic implications [1] - The tax legislation is expected to support economic growth, aligning with broader fiscal strategies [1] - The statement reflects a commitment to maintaining a balanced approach to fiscal policy while promoting growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, indicated that the market has responded positively to the new tax legislation, suggesting investor confidence in the proposed changes [1] Group 1: Tax Legislation Impact - The new tax law is perceived favorably by the market, indicating a potential boost in investor sentiment and economic activity [1] - The legislation aims to enhance tax compliance and increase revenue, which could lead to improved fiscal health for the government [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Market reactions suggest that investors are optimistic about the implications of the tax law on corporate earnings and overall economic growth [1] - The positive feedback from the market may encourage further legislative efforts aimed at tax reform and economic stimulus [1]

Core Points - The Speaker of the U.S. House, Johnson, indicated that key votes for the tax reconciliation bill are expected to be secured soon [1] - The final vote is anticipated to occur "early in the morning," following over four hours of voting [1] - The vote is crucial for the reconciliation rules of the tax bill, which must pass before the House can debate the bill itself [1] - The passage of the bill may take an additional three to four hours [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, Johnson, emphasizes that there is still much work to be done, but the tax legislation will be passed [1] Group 1 - The tax bill is a priority for the current legislative agenda [1] - Johnson indicates a commitment to advancing the tax legislation despite challenges ahead [1]

Core Point - The U.S. House of Representatives, led by Speaker Johnson, is set to take swift action to pass a tax bill before July 4 [1] Group 1 - The House aims to expedite the legislative process for the tax bill [1]