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隔夜欧美·9月27日
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-27 00:12
⑦纽约尾盘,美元指数跌0.28%报98.19,离岸人民币对美元涨39个基点报7.1413; ⑧伦敦基本金属全线下跌,LME期锌跌1.37%报2886.50美元/吨,本周累计下跌0.09%;LME期镍跌 0.81%报15155.00美元/吨,本周累计下跌0.76%;LME期铅跌0.69%报2001.50美元/吨,本周累计上涨 0.25%;LME期铜跌0.53%报10205.00美元/吨,本周累计上涨2.16%;LME期铝跌0.36%报2649.00美元/ 吨,本周累计下跌0.84%;LME期锡跌0.07%报34415.00美元/吨,本周累计上涨0.71%; ⑨美债收益率涨跌不一,2年期美债收益率跌1.43个基点报3.639%,3年期美债收益率跌0.50个基点报 3.652%,5年期美债收益率涨0.52个基点报3.767%,10年期美债收益率涨1.16个基点报4.179%,30年期 美债收益率涨0.59个基点报4.754%; ①美国三大股指全线收涨,道指涨0.65%报46247.29点,标普500指数涨0.59%报6643.7点,纳指涨0.44% 报22484.07点; ②科技股收盘多数上涨,特斯拉涨超4%,微软 ...
关键通胀指标即将出炉 美债收益率周五盘前下行为主
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-09-26 14:13
新华财经北京9月26日电投资者周五(26日)密切关注一项关键通胀指标的公布,并评估美国经济的状况,美债当天小幅向上波动,收 益率下行。 周五盘前,美债收益率下行为主,截至新华财经20:30发稿时,2年期美债收益率跌1.4BP至3.649%,10年期美债收益率跌1BP至4.164%, 30年期美债收益率跌1.1BP至4.742%。 欧洲市场方面,欧债收益率周五几乎全线下行,其中10年期德债收益率跌2.8BPs至2.744%,10年期意债收益率跌3.2BPs至3.612%,10年 期法债收益率跌3.2BPs至3.572%。 其它市场方面,英债走势与欧债类似,收益率全线下行,其中2年期英债收益率跌3.2BPs至3.994%,10年期英债收益率跌3.3BP至 4.731%,30年期英债收益率跌3.5BPs至5.536%。 投资者们正期待着8月份个人消费支出指数的公布,该指数将于美国东部时间上午8:30发布,它被视为美联储青睐的通胀指标。经济学家 们预计该数据将显示通胀有所上升。 美国劳工部周四公布的数据显示,每周首次申请失业救济人数低于预期,从23.2万人降至21.8万人,也低于道琼斯的预测值23.5万人。美 国第三 ...
隔夜欧美·9月25日
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-24 23:40
Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.37%, the S&P 500 down 0.28%, and the Nasdaq down 0.33% [1] - Popular tech stocks showed mixed results, with Intel rising over 6% and Tesla nearly 4%, while Google fell over 1% and Nvidia and Apple dropped nearly 1% [1] - Chinese concept stocks saw a general increase, with Alibaba and GDS Holdings rising over 8%, Baidu and JD.com up over 5%, and NIO up over 2% [1] - European stock indices closed mixed, with Germany's DAX up 0.23%, France's CAC40 down 0.57%, and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.29% [1] Commodity Prices - International precious metal futures generally declined, with COMEX gold futures down 1.24% at $3768.5 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 1.11% at $44.115 per ounce [1] - International oil prices surged, with the main U.S. oil contract up 2.21% at $64.81 per barrel and Brent crude up 1.93% at $68.26 per barrel [1] Currency and Debt Markets - The U.S. dollar index rose 0.65% to 97.86, while the offshore RMB against the U.S. dollar fell by 243 basis points to 7.1379 [1] - U.S. Treasury yields collectively increased, with the 2-year yield up 3.48 basis points at 3.608%, the 3-year yield up 5.06 basis points at 3.607%, the 5-year yield up 5.95 basis points at 3.723%, the 10-year yield up 4.24 basis points at 4.149%, and the 30-year yield up 3.63 basis points at 4.752% [1] - European bond yields were mixed, with the UK 10-year yield down 1 basis point at 4.667%, France's 10-year yield up 0.5 basis points at 3.567%, Germany's 10-year yield down 0.1 basis points at 2.746%, Italy's 10-year yield up 2.1 basis points at 3.562%, and Spain's 10-year yield up 0.4 basis points at 3.297% [1]
经合组织上调全球经济增长预测 美债收益率周二盘前下行
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-23 13:10
来源:中国金融信息网 全球资产管理公司East Spring投资在周二发布的一份报告中表示,美联储在9月份议息会议期间的"鸽派转变",应该会对未来几个月的利 率市场产生积极影响。 当地时间周二,投资者将关注几位联储官员的讲话。上午9点,美联储负责监管的副主席米歇尔·鲍曼发表讲话;亚特兰大联储总裁博斯 蒂克10点发表讲话;中午12:35,美联储现任主席鲍威尔将发表讲话。 据外媒周一报道,对于美联储下任主席人选,美国财政部长贝森特近日表示,将在下周完成与11位候选人中剩余10人的面谈,包括现任 美联储理事和地区联储总裁。预计下周开始缩小候选人名单,可能会有两到三份名单,最终向特朗普总统推荐一位候选人。他再次排除 了自己出任美联储主席的可能性,并表示将继续留任财政部长。 此外,投资者亦关注本周将公布的个人消费支出指数(PCE),美联储青睐的该指数应该能让人们对通胀压力和美国整体经济状况有所 了解。 经合组织(OECD)周二上调全球经济增长预测,预计今年全球经济增长3.2%,而6月份的预测为2.9%。对2026年的预期维持在2.9%不 变。该组织对美国经济增长预期也从6月份的1.6%上调至2025年的1.8%。与20 ...
9月两个期限LPR报价维持不变,资金面转松,债市有所回暖
Dong Fang Jin Cheng· 2025-09-23 04:40
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 22, the central bank restarted the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation, the capital market continued to loosen, and the bond market recovered; the main indices of the convertible bond market closed down collectively, and most convertible bonds declined; the yields of US Treasury bonds of various maturities generally increased, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yields of major European economies remained unchanged [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - Vice - Premier He Lifeng met with a US congressional delegation, emphasizing the importance of Sino - US communication and cooperation in promoting bilateral economic and trade relations [3] - The LPR quotes for two tenors in September remained unchanged, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.00% and the over - 5 - year LPR at 3.50%, which was in line with market expectations [3] - As of the end of June this year, China's banking industry's total assets were nearly 470 trillion yuan, ranking first in the world; the stock and bond markets ranked second in the world; and the foreign exchange reserves ranked first in the world for 20 consecutive years. During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, China's financial risks were generally controllable, and the financial system operated steadily [4] - The CPC Party Group of the Ministry of Finance will coordinate debt replacement, financing platform reform, and accountability for illegal debt - raising [5] - The CPC Party Committee of the CSRC will coordinate the resolution of local financing platform and real - estate enterprise bond risks and support reasonable financing [5] 3.1.2 International News - Three Fed officials expressed concerns about inflation and believed that the space for further interest - rate cuts was limited this year, which may affect the Fed's interest - rate policy in the remaining two meetings [6] 3.1.3 Commodities - On September 22, international crude oil futures prices continued to fall, with WTI October crude futures down 0.06% and Brent November crude futures down 0.16%; COMEX December gold futures rose 1.87%, and NYMEX natural gas prices fell 3.77% [7][8] 3.2 Capital Market 3.2.1 Open Market Operations - On September 22, the central bank conducted 2405 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 3000 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net capital injection of 2605 billion yuan after 2800 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [10] 3.2.2 Capital Interest Rates - On September 22, the central bank restarted the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation, and the capital market continued to warm up. Major repurchase interest rates continued to decline, such as DR001 down 3.67bp to 1.428% and DR007 down 2.08bp to 1.489% [11] 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - Rate Bonds - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On September 22, due to the central bank's restart of the 14 - day reverse repurchase and the loosening of the capital market, the bond market recovered. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond 250011 fell 0.75bp to 1.7875%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB active bond 250215 fell 1.00bp to 1.9280% [14] - **Bond Tendering Situation**: Information on the issuance scale, winning bid yields, and other aspects of multiple bonds such as 25 Agricultural Development Discount 08 (Increment 3) was provided [16] 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - **Secondary - Market Transaction Anomalies**: On September 22, the transaction prices of 2 industrial bonds deviated by more than 10%, with "16 Longhu 04" down more than 12% and "H1 Yangcheng 01" up more than 1592% [16] - **Credit Bond Events**: There were announcements from companies such as China Aoyuan, Newmi Caiyuan Investment Group, and Kaisa Group regarding debt restructuring, warnings, and other matters [19] 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices**: On September 22, the three major A - share indices closed up, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index up 0.22%, 0.67%, and 0.55% respectively. The main indices of the convertible bond market closed down, with the China Bond Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Bond Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Bond Convertible Bond Index down 0.43%, 0.43%, and 0.40% respectively [18] - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: On September 22, Fushi Convertible Bond announced that it was about to meet the early redemption conditions [21] 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - **US Bond Market**: On September 22, the yields of US Treasury bonds of various maturities generally increased, with the 2 - year US Treasury yield up 4bp to 3.61% and the 10 - year US Treasury yield up 1bp to 4.14%. The yield spreads of 2/10 - year and 5/30 - year US Treasury bonds narrowed [22][23] - **European Bond Market**: On September 22, the 10 - year Treasury bond yields of major European economies remained unchanged, including Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the UK [25] - **Daily Price Changes of Chinese - Issued US - Dollar Bonds**: Information on the daily price changes, including the top 10 gainers and losers, of Chinese - issued US - dollar bonds as of the close on September 22 was provided [27]
申请失业数据回到正常水平 美债收益率周四走高
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-09-18 14:01
Group 1 - The U.S. labor department reported that initial jobless claims for the week ending September 13 were 231,000, a decrease of 33,000 from the previous week, and below the Dow Jones estimate of 240,000 [3] - The increase in jobless claims the previous week was attributed to a temporary spike in Texas, indicating no broader issues in the labor market [3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the recent interest rate cut was a "risk management" decision, dampening expectations for long-term rate cuts [3] Group 2 - In Europe, bond yields rose, with the 10-year German bond yield increasing by 3.3 basis points to 2.71% and the 10-year Italian bond yield rising by 4.2 basis points to 3.54% [4] - The European Central Bank is facing challenges in balancing economic growth prospects and inflation concerns, leading to a decision to maintain interest rates [4] - The Bank of England voted 7-2 to keep rates unchanged at 4%, with two members advocating for a 25 basis point cut [4] Group 3 - In the Asia-Pacific region, the Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate around 0.5%, with no significant impact anticipated from the Federal Reserve's rate cut [5] - Japanese bond yields mostly rose, with the 2-year yield increasing by 0.7 basis points to 0.885% [7] - The U.S. Treasury plans to issue $204 billion in bonds, including $100 billion in 4-week and $85 billion in 8-week short-term bonds [7]
8月零售数据超预期 美债收益率多数下行
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-09-16 14:19
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that U.S. Treasury yields are mostly declining as investors digest strong retail sales data and anticipate a nearly certain interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week [1][2] - The U.S. retail sales in August showed a robust growth of 0.6%, marking the third consecutive month of strong performance, surpassing the Dow Jones forecast of 0.3% [2] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (BPs), with market expectations indicating a cumulative rate cut of 75 BPs by the end of the year [2][3] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury is set to issue two bonds totaling $98 billion, including $85 billion in 6-week short-term debt and $13 billion in 20-year bonds [3] - In the European market, bond yields are generally rising, with the 10-year German bond yield increasing by 1 BP to 2.705% [3] - In the Asia-Pacific market, Japanese bond yields are mostly declining, with the 20-year bond yield rising by 3.3 BPs to 2.678% [3]
美国非农年度数据大幅下修91.1万,资金面继续收敛,债市延续弱势
Dong Fang Jin Cheng· 2025-09-15 07:59
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 9th, the liquidity tightened, major repo rates rose, the bond market remained weak, convertible bond market indices declined, and yields of US and major European 10-year government bonds generally increased [1]. - The significant downward revision of US non-farm annual data may lay the foundation for the Fed to cut interest rates, indicating a slowdown in the US labor market [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - At the press conference on the "14th Five-Year Plan", the MIIT announced that during the "14th Five-Year Plan", China's manufacturing added - value is expected to increase by 8 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 30% of the global total, and China has built a large - scale network infrastructure [3]. - The SAMR issued a document to improve the exit mechanism for business entities, and the new regulations will take effect on October 10th [3]. - In August, national enterprise sales revenue grew rapidly, with manufacturing sales growing faster than the overall level, and high - end and digital manufacturing showing good growth [4]. 3.1.2 International News - The US non - farm employment data for the year ending March was revised down by 911,000, the largest downward revision since 2000, which may prompt the Fed to cut interest rates [6]. 3.1.3 Commodities - On September 9th, international crude oil futures prices rose, and natural gas prices slightly increased, while COMEX gold futures prices fell [7]. 3.2 Liquidity 3.2.1 Open Market Operations - On September 9th, the central bank conducted 247 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 870 million yuan due to the maturity of 255.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchases [9]. 3.2.2 Funding Rates - On September 9th, the liquidity tightened, and major repo rates increased. For example, DR001 rose 5.93bp to 1.416%, and DR007 rose 2.66bp to 1.479% [10]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - Bearing Bonds - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On September 9th, affected by concerns about redemption fees and tightening liquidity, the bond market was weak. Yields of 10 - year treasury and CDB bonds increased [13]. - **Bond Tendering**: Several bonds were tendered on September 9th, with details such as issuance scale, winning yields, and multiples provided [15]. 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - **Secondary Market Transaction Abnormalities**: On September 9th, 4 industrial bonds had transaction price deviations of over 10%, including significant drops and rises [15]. - **Credit Bond Events**: Companies such as Orient Fashion, Nanyang Transportation Construction Investment Group, Oceanwide Holdings, and Shandong Hengbang Smelting announced relevant events [16]. 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices**: On September 9th, A - share indices and convertible bond market indices all declined, with most stocks and convertible bonds falling [17]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: There were announcements regarding creditor's meetings, litigation disputes, new bond listings, and regulatory approvals for convertible bonds [19][20]. 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - **US Bond Market**: On September 9th, yields of US bonds across all maturities generally increased, and yield spreads narrowed. The inflation - protected treasury bond's break - even inflation rate rose [21][22][23]. - **European Bond Market**: On September 9th, 10 - year government bond yields of major European economies generally increased [24]. - **Price Changes of Chinese - funded US Dollar Bonds**: As of the close on September 9th, there were price changes in Chinese - funded US dollar bonds, with details of daily and monthly changes provided [26].
债市日报:9月10日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-09-10 09:59
Core Viewpoint - The bond market continues to experience a downturn, with government bond futures showing a significant decline and a tightening liquidity environment affecting market sentiment [1][2][5]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.86% to 114.76, marking the lowest close since March 19 [2]. - The yield on the 10-year government bond increased by 2.75 basis points to 1.822%, while the yield on the 30-year bond rose by 2.5 basis points to 2.096% [2]. - The China Convertible Bond Index fell by 0.63% to 474.4 points, with a trading volume of 724.47 billion [2]. Overseas Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 2-year yield increasing by 7.41 basis points to 3.560% [3]. - Asian markets saw most bond yields rise, with the 5-year and 10-year yields increasing by 1.5 basis points and 0.4 basis points, respectively [3]. - In the Eurozone, most bond yields also increased, with the UK 10-year yield rising by 1.7 basis points to 4.621% [3]. Primary Market - The weighted average yield for the 91-day Treasury bond was 1.2745%, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.04 [4]. - The 5-year fixed-rate bond had a weighted average yield of 1.5973% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.24 [4]. - The 50-year special treasury bond had a yield of 2.2227% with a bid-to-cover ratio of 4.18 [4]. Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation with a total of 3,040 billion at an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 749 billion for the day [5]. - Short-term Shibor rates mostly increased, with the overnight rate rising by 0.6 basis points to 1.425% [5]. Economic Indicators - August CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, while PPI fell by 2.9%, indicating a narrowing decline compared to the previous month [7]. - The core CPI has shown an expanding growth rate for four consecutive months, reflecting the effectiveness of policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [7]. Institutional Insights - Long-term liquidity is expected to remain stable, with the central bank likely to continue providing support for government bond issuance [8]. - The new regulations on public fund sales fees are anticipated to enhance the stability of public bond funds, potentially leading to increased inflows into bond ETFs [8].
海外债券周报:美债避险驱动全球债市分化-20250910
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-09-10 07:37
Group 1 - The report highlights a significant decline in US Treasury yields, driven by rising global risk aversion and expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve due to weakening economic data [7][9][27] - European long-term government bond yields have reached near-decade highs, particularly in the UK, France, and Germany, influenced by fiscal expansion and political uncertainties, leading to a sell-off in European bonds [8][9][10] - The report suggests a shift in global capital flows, indicating increased risk aversion and a preference for high-quality, liquid bonds amid diverging monetary policies across major economies [8][9][10] Group 2 - The US Treasury yield curve has shifted downward, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.08% and the 30-year yield decreasing by 16.8 basis points to 4.76%, reflecting heightened demand for safe-haven assets [9][10][11] - In contrast, UK 30-year government bond yields have surged to their highest levels since 1998, with significant increases in yields for French and German bonds as well, indicating a divergence in bond market performance [9][10][11] - The report notes that Asian government bonds have remained stable, with limited yield fluctuations, highlighting a risk diversion effect in the market [9][10][11] Group 3 - The issuance of credit bonds has primarily involved high-rated entities, focusing on sectors such as infrastructure, real estate, and transportation, with maturities mainly between 1-3 years [17][19] - The offshore RMB bond market has shown a slight widening of the yield spread between dim sum bonds and domestic bonds, indicating a stable long-term outlook for offshore RMB liquidity [15][16][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining a diversified credit exposure, particularly in high-rated corporate bonds and sovereign debt, while being cautious of over-concentration in any single sector or credit rating [33][34]