⑦纽约尾盘，美元指数跌0.13%报98.09，离岸人民币对美元涨43个基点报7.1805； ⑧伦敦基本金属多数上涨，LME期锡涨1.37%报33835.00美元/吨，LME期锌涨0.97%报2815.50美元/吨， LME期铅涨0.63%报2007.00美元/吨，LME期铜跌0.06%报9670.50美元/吨； ⑨美债收益率集体上涨，2年期美债收益率涨2.04个基点报3.728%，3年期美债收益率涨1.94个基点报 3.689%，5年期美债收益率涨1.90个基点报3.792%，10年期美债收益率涨2.62个基点报4.252%，30年期 美债收益率涨0.80个基点报4.828%； ⑩欧债收益率多数下跌，英国10年期国债收益率涨2.1个基点报4.544%，法国10年期国债收益率跌1.6个 基点报3.294%，德国10年期国债收益率跌2个基点报2.628%，意大利10年期国债收益率跌2.4个基点报 3.420%，西班牙10年期国债收益率跌2.8个基点报3.198%。 ①美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道指跌0.51%，标普500指数跌0.08%，纳指涨0.35%； ②大型科技股多数上涨，苹果涨超3%，英伟达涨0.75%， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On July 30, the central bank conducted continuous net injections, leading to a balanced and slightly loose liquidity situation. The bond market showed a significant recovery, while the main indices of the convertible bond market closed down collectively, with most individual convertible bonds declining. Yields of U.S. Treasury bonds across various maturities generally increased, and yields of 10-year government bonds in major European economies also mostly rose [1]. Summaries by Directory I. Bond Market News (1) Domestic News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in October to discuss the 15th Five-Year Plan. It emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability, implementing proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, and taking measures in multiple aspects such as supporting innovation, consumption, and resolving local government debt risks [3]. - The CPC Central Committee held a symposium with non - Communist Party personages, with General Secretary Xi Jinping stressing the need to adhere to the general principle of making progress while maintaining stability in the second half of the year, aiming to achieve the annual economic and social development goals [4]. - The central government plans to allocate about 90 billion yuan for child - rearing subsidies this year, with the central finance bearing about 90% of the funds for the national basic standard [4][5]. - The National Development and Reform Commission solicited public opinions on guiding the layout and investment of government investment funds to prevent homogenization and crowding - out effects [5]. - The National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors issued a notice to regulate the book - building issuance and underwriting in the inter - bank bond market from August 11, 2025 [6]. (2) International News - The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5% for the fifth consecutive meeting. Some members advocated a 25 - basis - point rate cut, and Fed Chairman Powell dampened market expectations of a September rate cut [7]. - The U.S. Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was 3%, reversing the Q1 decline and exceeding expectations. The core PCE price index was 2.5%, down from the previous value but higher than expected. However, there are concerns about the economic recovery, such as weakening domestic demand [9]. (3) Commodities - On July 30, international crude oil futures prices continued to rise, while international natural gas prices continued to fall. WTI crude oil rose 1.36% to $70.99 per barrel, Brent crude oil rose 1.47% to $73.47 per barrel, COMEX gold futures fell 1.72% to $3266.90 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices fell 1.89% to $3.016 per ounce [10]. II. Liquidity (1) Open Market Operations - On July 30, the central bank conducted 309 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%. With 150.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net injection was 158.5 billion yuan [12]. (2) Funding Rates - Due to continuous net injections by the central bank on July 30, the liquidity was balanced and slightly loose, and major repurchase rates continued to decline. For example, DR001 dropped 4.81bp to 1.315%, and DR007 dropped 4.67bp to 1.518% [13]. III. Bond Market Dynamics (1) Interest - Rate Bonds - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: After the Political Bureau meeting on July 30, the bond market recovered significantly. By 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250011 dropped 2.75bp to 1.7200%, and the yield of the 10 - year China Development Bank bond active bond 250210 dropped 3.25bp to 1.8040% [16]. - **Bond Tendering Results**: Details of the tendering results of several agricultural bonds, including the issuance scale, winning yields, and multiples, were provided [17]. (2) Credit Bonds - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies**: On July 30, the trading price of one industrial bond, "H0 Yangcheng 04", deviated by more than 10%, rising over 747% [17]. - **Credit Bond Events**: Multiple credit - related events occurred, such as asset freezes of some companies, changes in credit ratings, and cancellations of bond issuances [18]. (3) Convertible Bonds - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices**: On July 30, the A - share market weakened in the afternoon. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.17%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell 0.77% and 1.62% respectively. The main indices of the convertible bond market closed down collectively, and most individual convertible bonds declined [20]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: Companies such as Hang Lung Properties reported their performance, and there were announcements regarding bond payments, revisions of conversion prices, and decisions on early redemptions [23][24][25]. (4) Overseas Bond Markets - **U.S. Bond Market**: On July 30, yields of U.S. Treasury bonds across various maturities generally increased. The 2 - year U.S. Treasury bond yield rose 8bp to 3.94%, and the 10 - year yield rose 4bp to 4.38%. The yield spreads between 2 - year and 10 - year, and 5 - year and 30 - year U.S. Treasury bonds narrowed [26][27]. - **European Bond Market**: On July 30, the 10 - year UK government bond yield dropped 4bp, while yields of 10 - year government bonds in other major European economies mostly rose [29]. - **Daily Price Changes of Chinese - Issued Dollar Bonds**: The daily price changes of Chinese - issued dollar bonds as of July 30 were presented, including the price changes, credit entities, bond codes, and other information of top - rising and top - falling bonds [31].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates unchanged for the fifth time, keeping the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.5% since December of the previous year [3] - The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 3% in the second quarter, surpassing economists' expectations of 2.3%, indicating a recovery from a contraction of 0.5% in the first quarter [4] - The yield on 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose by 8 basis points to 3.94%, while the 10-year yield increased by 6 basis points to 4.324%, reflecting investor reactions to the Fed's decision [1][3] Group 2 - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) had a 9-2 vote against lowering interest rates, marking the first time since 1993 that two members opposed the majority opinion [3] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the importance of maintaining long-term inflation expectations and indicated that no decision has been made regarding the September meeting [3] - The cautious stance of Powell led to a decrease in market expectations for a rate cut in September, which was viewed as a victory for the Fed [3] Group 3 - President Trump announced a comprehensive trade agreement with South Korea, setting export tariffs at 15%, which caused a significant drop in copper prices and affected mining companies [4] - The impact of tariffs on the economy is complex, as businesses and consumers rushed to purchase imports before new taxes were implemented, disrupting normal consumption patterns [4] - Santander's chief U.S. economist noted that the effects of tariffs on the economy take longer to materialize than expected [4] Group 4 - In the European bond market, government bond yields showed slight fluctuations, with the 10-year German bond yield rising by 0.2 basis points to 2.708% [5] - In the Asia-Pacific market, Japanese bond yields also increased slightly, with the 2-year yield rising by 0.6 basis points to 0.829% [7] - The U.S. Treasury is set to issue $180 billion in bonds, including $95 billion in 4-week and $85 billion in 8-week short-term bonds [7]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced slight gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.47% at 44,901.92 points, the S&P 500 up 0.4% at 6,388.64 points, and the Nasdaq up 0.24% at 21,108.32 points [1] - Major tech stocks showed mixed results, with Tesla rising over 3%, Microsoft up 0.55%, Google up 0.53%, Apple up 0.06%, while Nvidia fell 0.14%, Facebook down 0.3%, and Amazon down 0.34% [1] - Chinese concept stocks mostly declined, with Luokung down over 12%, Xiaoying Technology down over 10%, and Daqo New Energy down about 7%, while Pony.ai rose nearly 5% and Waterdrop Inc. rose nearly 4% [1] - European major indices closed mixed, with Germany's DAX down 0.32% at 24,217.5 points, France's CAC40 up 0.21% at 7,834.58 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.2% at 9,120.31 points [1] Commodity Prices - International precious metal futures generally declined, with COMEX gold futures down 1.04% at $3,338.50 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 2.29% at $38.33 per ounce [1] - U.S. oil main contract fell 1.45% to $65.07 per barrel, with a weekly decline of 1.48%; Brent crude oil main contract fell 1.11% to $67.60 per barrel, with a weekly decline of 2.42% [1] - London base metals all fell, with LME tin down 1.40% at $34,140.00 per ton, LME nickel down 1.29% at $15,265.00 per ton, LME copper down 0.82% at $9,796.00 per ton, LME aluminum down 0.60% at $2,631.00 per ton, LME zinc down 0.51% at $2,829.00 per ton, and LME lead down 0.10% at $2,020.50 per ton [1] Bond Yields - U.S. Treasury yields were mixed, with the 2-year yield up 0.91 basis points at 3.928%, the 3-year yield up 0.27 basis points at 3.872%, the 5-year yield down 1.23 basis points at 3.948%, the 10-year yield down 0.99 basis points at 4.388%, and the 30-year yield down 1.03 basis points at 4.930% [1] - European bond yields generally rose, with the UK 10-year yield up 1.3 basis points at 4.633%, France's 10-year yield up 0.7 basis points at 3.383%, Germany's 10-year yield up 1.4 basis points at 2.713%, Italy's 10-year yield up 0.2 basis points at 3.550%, and Spain's 10-year yield up 0.8 basis points at 3.311% [1]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices all closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 1.14%, the S&P 500 up 0.78%, and the Nasdaq up 0.61% [1] - Major tech stocks mostly rose, with Nvidia up over 2%, Facebook up more than 1%, Amazon up 0.36%, Tesla up 0.14%, Microsoft up 0.12%, while Apple fell 0.12% and Google dropped 0.58% [1] - Chinese concept stocks mostly increased, with Brain Rebirth up over 8%, Pony.ai up over 8%, Century Internet up over 8%, Luokung up over 7%, WeRide up over 5%, and GDS Holdings up over 4%. In contrast, Daqo New Energy fell over 5%, Melco Resorts dropped over 2%, NIO fell over 2%, and JinkoSolar declined over 1% [1] - European stock indices also closed higher, with Germany's DAX up 0.83%, France's CAC40 up 1.37%, and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.42% [1] Commodity Prices - International precious metal futures generally fell, with COMEX gold futures down 1.34% at $3397.50 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 0.09% at $39.52 per ounce [1] - International oil prices fluctuated narrowly, with the main U.S. oil contract up 0.17% at $65.42 per barrel and Brent crude up 0.10% at $68.66 per barrel [1] Currency and Bond Markets - The U.S. dollar index fell 0.15% to 97.20, while the offshore RMB closed at 7.1520 against the dollar [1] - U.S. Treasury yields collectively rose, with the 2-year yield up 4.03 basis points at 3.870%, the 3-year yield up 4.74 basis points at 3.824%, the 5-year yield up 4.22 basis points at 3.926%, the 10-year yield up 3.58 basis points at 4.380%, and the 30-year yield up 1.95 basis points at 4.938% [1] - European bond yields also rose, with the UK 10-year yield up 6.5 basis points at 4.632%, France's 10-year yield up 3.6 basis points at 3.298%, Germany's 10-year yield up 4.9 basis points at 2.636%, Italy's 10-year yield up 2.8 basis points at 3.459%, and Spain's 10-year yield up 2.5 basis points at 3.225% [1]

Group 1 - Global stock markets surged on July 23 due to the US-Japan trade agreement, leading to a decline in market risk aversion and a shift from bonds to stocks [1] - US Treasury yields rose slightly, with the 2-year yield increasing by 5 basis points to 3.88%, the 10-year yield rising by 5 basis points to 4.4%, and the 30-year yield up by 5 basis points to 4.95% [1] - The focus is now on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting on July 29-30, where it is widely expected that interest rates will remain unchanged despite political pressure for cuts [3] Group 2 - The S&P 500 index is expected to rise further as the US economy withstands the global trade war, although unpredictable trade policies and attacks on the Fed's independence could trigger market declines [4] - European stock markets rose on hopes of a trade agreement, with bond yields increasing across the board, including a 6.7 basis point rise in the 10-year German bond yield to 2.666% [4] - In the Asia-Pacific region, Australian bond yields also rose, with the 2-year yield increasing by 2 basis points to 3.355% and the 10-year yield up by 3.6 basis points to 4.332% [4] Group 3 - Japanese bond yields increased overall, with the 10-year yield reaching a high of 1.6010%, the highest since October 2008, before closing at 1.594% [8] - The US Treasury plans to issue $201 billion in bonds, including $95 billion in 4-week and $85 billion in 8-week short-term bonds, amid expectations of significant short-term debt issuance [8][9] - The actual net financing needs of the US Treasury in Q2 reached $514 billion, exceeding earlier estimates by $391 billion, indicating a strong demand for short-term bonds [9]

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.32% at 44,342.19 points, the S&P 500 down 0.01% at 6,296.79 points, and the Nasdaq up 0.05% at 20,895.66 points [1] - Major tech stocks showed mixed results, with Netflix down over 5% and Amazon up over 1% [1] - Most popular Chinese concept stocks rose, with JD.com up over 3%, Alibaba, Bilibili, and NetEase up over 2%, and Li Auto up over 1% [1] European Market Performance - European stock indices closed mixed, with Germany's DAX down 0.33% at 24,289.51 points, France's CAC40 up 0.01% at 7,822.67 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.22% at 8,992.12 points [1] Commodity Prices - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 0.30% at $3,355.50 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 0.32% at $38.43 per ounce [1] - International oil prices slightly declined, with the main US oil contract down 0.30% at $66.03 per barrel and Brent crude down 0.42% at $69.23 per barrel [1] Currency and Bond Market - The US dollar index fell 0.18% to 98.46, while the offshore RMB against the US dollar rose by 37 basis points to 7.1810 [1] - US Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 2-year yield down 3.32 basis points at 3.8628%, the 3-year yield down 3.92 basis points at 3.8329%, the 5-year yield down 4.92 basis points at 3.9395%, the 10-year yield down 3.98 basis points at 4.4095%, and the 30-year yield down 2.49 basis points at 4.9823% [1] - European bond yields collectively rose, with the UK 10-year yield up 1.9 basis points at 4.672%, France's 10-year yield up 1.9 basis points at 3.396%, Germany's 10-year yield up 2.1 basis points at 2.693%, Italy's 10-year yield up 1.6 basis points at 3.548%, and Spain's 10-year yield up 2 basis points at 3.308% [1]

Group 1 - Investors are eagerly awaiting the upcoming U.S. inflation data, which could influence the Federal Reserve's next steps [1][4] - The U.S. Treasury yields showed mixed movements, with short-term yields rising and long-term yields declining [1][4] - The U.S. Labor Department is set to release the inflation report on July 15 at 8:30 AM ET [3] Group 2 - Economists surveyed by Reuters expect the overall inflation rate for June to rise from 2.4% in May to 2.7%, while core inflation is anticipated to increase from 2.8% to 3.0% [4] - The consumer price index for June is projected to increase by 2.6% year-over-year, up from 2.4% in May, with housing prices expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month, the largest increase since January [4] - If tariffs begin to show a significant impact on the CPI data, the U.S. bond market may experience sell-offs due to heightened inflation risks [5] Group 3 - JPMorgan's CEO highlighted the resilience of the U.S. economy in the current quarter, despite ongoing risks such as tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties [5] - The Federal Reserve is cautious about lowering short-term interest rates until they observe how the economy reacts to the tariffs [5] - The White House has criticized the Federal Reserve's management, particularly regarding the renovation costs of its buildings, which have exceeded initial budgets by approximately one-third [6] Group 4 - In the European market, bond yields fell across the board, with the 10-year German bond yield dropping to 2.707% [7] - The UK market is facing investor concerns due to economic slowdown and rising government debt nearing 100% of GDP [7] - In the Asia-Pacific market, the Japanese yen has depreciated against major currencies, raising concerns about Japan's economic slowdown [8]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced slight gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.2%, the S&P 500 up 0.14%, and the Nasdaq up 0.27% [1] - Major tech stocks showed mixed results, with Tesla rising over 1%, Google up 0.76%, Facebook up 0.48%, Amazon up 0.3%, while Microsoft fell 0.06%, Nvidia down 0.52%, and Apple down over 1% [1] - Chinese concept stocks mostly rose, with Kingsoft Cloud up nearly 10%, NIO up over 7%, Tencent Music up over 4%, Bilibili up over 4%, and Li Auto up over 3%. In contrast, New Oriental fell over 2% and Pinduoduo dropped over 2% [1] European Market - European stock indices closed mixed, with Germany's DAX down 0.39%, France's CAC40 down 0.27%, and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.64% [1] Commodity Prices - International precious metal futures generally declined, with COMEX gold futures down 0.35% at $3352.10 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 1.40% at $38.41 per ounce [1] - International oil prices fell, with the main U.S. oil contract down 2.37% at $66.83 per barrel and Brent crude down 1.82% at $69.08 per barrel [1] Currency and Bond Market - The U.S. dollar index rose 0.24% to 98.11, while the offshore RMB against the U.S. dollar increased by 14 basis points to 7.1722 [1] - U.S. Treasury yields collectively rose, with the 2-year yield up 0.99 basis points at 3.896%, the 3-year yield up 1.67 basis points at 3.869%, the 5-year yield up 1.58 basis points at 3.985%, the 10-year yield up 2.40 basis points at 4.433%, and the 30-year yield up 3.21 basis points at 4.978% [1] - European bond yields mostly increased, with the UK 10-year yield down 2.2 basis points at 4.598%, while France's 10-year yield rose 2 basis points to 3.430%, Germany's 10-year yield up 0.6 basis points to 2.727%, Italy's 10-year yield up 2.2 basis points to 3.590%, and Spain's 10-year yield up 1.1 basis points to 3.339% [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View On July 10, the liquidity tightened marginally, with major repo rates rising slightly. Under the influence of multiple negative factors, the bond market weakened significantly. The convertible bond market followed the equity market and rose, with most individual convertible bonds increasing. Yields of U.S. Treasuries across various tenors generally increased, and yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies also mostly rose [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News**: The Shanghai Stock Exchange held a policy briefing on the "1 + 6" reform of the Science and Technology Innovation Board. The National Development and Reform Commission plans to increase investment in key areas of new - type urbanization using "two important and two new" funds [3]. - **International News**: On July 10, Fed Governor Waller suggested considering a rate cut in July, stating that the current federal funds rate is overly restrictive [4]. - **Commodities**: On July 10, international crude oil futures prices declined (WTI August crude futures fell 2.19% to $66.88/barrel, Brent September crude futures fell 2.2% to $68.64/barrel), while international natural gas prices rose (NYMEX natural gas prices rose 4.96% to $3.365/ounce), and COMEX gold futures rose 0.38% to $3333.67/ounce [6]. 3.2 Liquidity - **Open - Market Operations**: On July 10, the central bank conducted 90 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.40%. With 57.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net capital injection was 32.8 billion yuan [8]. - **Funding Rates**: On July 10, the liquidity tightened marginally, with DR001 rising 0.56bp to 1.323% and DR007 rising 1.78bp to 1.495% [9]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Rate Bonds** - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On July 10, affected by factors such as the continuous improvement of the stock market, marginal tightening of liquidity, and rumors that Hebei Province guided rural commercial banks to reduce the proportion of bond investments, the bond market weakened significantly. By 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 rose 1.45bp to 1.6595%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active bond 250210 rose 1.40bp to 1.7380% [11]. - **Bond Tendering**: Details of bond issuances including various bonds such as 25贴现国开清发02, 25国开清发02(增发19), etc., are provided, including their tenors, issuance scales, winning yields, over - subscription ratios, and marginal ratios [13]. - **Credit Bonds** - **Secondary - Market Transaction Anomalies**: On July 10, 2 industrial bonds ("H1碧地02" down over 34% and "23亦庄06" up over 11%) and 1 urban investment bond ("20泗阳佳鼎债" down over 18%) had transaction price deviations exceeding 10% [14][15]. - **Credit Bond Events**: Events include bond restructuring of Longfor Group, regulatory warnings for Lan创建设, debt - related issues of Xi'an Quwen Investment, Jiangsu Nantong Sanjian, etc., as well as bond repayment and interest - rate adjustment plans of some companies [16]. 3.4 Convertible Bonds - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indexes**: On July 10, the three major A - share indexes rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index up 0.48%, 0.47%, and 0.22% respectively, and the full - day trading volume reaching 1.52 trillion yuan. The main convertible bond indexes also rose, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index up 0.40%, 0.40%, and 0.45% respectively. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 68.377 billion yuan, a decrease of 994 million yuan from the previous trading day. Among 469 convertible bonds, 338 rose, 123 fell, and 8 remained flat [17]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: On July 10, Zhite Convertible Bond announced an early redemption, and Hongcheng Convertible Bond announced that it was about to meet the early redemption conditions [19]. 3.5 Overseas Bond Markets - **U.S. Bond Market**: On July 10, the yield of the 2 - year U.S. Treasury remained unchanged at 3.86%, while yields of other tenors generally increased. The yield of the 10 - year U.S. Treasury rose 1bp to 4.35%. The 2/10 - year U.S. Treasury yield spread widened by 1bp to 49bp, and the 5/30 - year U.S. Treasury yield spread narrowed by 2bp to 93bp. The break - even inflation rate of the 10 - year U.S. Treasury Inflation - Protected Securities (TIPS) rose 1bp to 2.34% [20][21][22]. - **European Bond Market**: On July 10, the yield of the 10 - year UK government bond remained unchanged, while yields of 10 - year government bonds in other major European economies generally increased. The yield of the 10 - year German government bond rose 3bp to 2.66%, and yields of 10 - year government bonds in France, Italy, and Spain rose 4bp, 4bp, and 1bp respectively [23]. - **Chinese - Issued Dollar Bonds**: Price changes of Chinese - issued dollar bonds as of the close on July 10 are provided, including daily and monthly changes of bonds issued by companies such as Oceanwide, Country Garden, NIO, etc. [25].