朋友们可能都听说了，最近美国那边的媒体又在传一个说法，说什么中国"停止抛售美债"，美联储"无奈让步"。听起来挺刺激 的，好像咱们在金融战场上取得了什么重大胜利似的。 事情真的是这样吗？咱们不妨把这个话题掰开了、揉碎了好好聊聊。 说起美债这事儿，就得从最基本的数字说起。根据美国财政部2025年2月18日公布的最新数据，中国持有美国国债的规模已经降 到了7590亿美元。这个数字意味着什么呢？这是中国自2009年以来持有美债的最低水平。 回想一下，在2011年的时候，咱们持有美债的峰值是1.3万亿美元左右。从那时候到现在，总共减持了约5500亿美元，降幅超过 40%。单是2024年一整年，就减持了573亿美元。更有意思的是，2024年全年12个月里，有9个月都在减持，只有4月、6月和11月 增持了一点点。 这些数字告诉我们什么？中国确实在持续减持美债，而且这个趋势已经延续了好几年。从2022年4月开始，咱们持有的美债就一 直保持在1万亿美元以下，每年都在稳步下降：2022年减持1732亿美元，2023年减持508亿美元，2024年减持573亿美元。 那美媒说的"停止抛售"是怎么来的呢？仔细分析一下就会发现，这个说法 ...

资金面有所缓和；债市整体走弱 【内容摘要】11 月 19 日，资金面有所缓和，主要回购利率均下行；债市整体走弱；转债市场 有所反弹，转债个券多数上涨；各期限美债收益率普遍上行，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收 益率走势分化。 【财政部在卢森堡成功发行 40 亿欧元主权债券，认购总额超千亿】11 月 18 日，财政部代表 中央政府在卢森堡成功发行 40 亿欧元主权债券。其中，4 年期 20 亿欧元，发行利率 2.401%； 7 年期 20 亿欧元，发行利率 2.702%。这是我国首次在卢森堡发行欧元主权债券，国际投资者 认购踊跃，总认购金额 1001 亿欧元，是发行金额的 25 倍。此次欧元主权债券投资者中，欧 洲、亚洲、中东、美国离岸投资者分别占比 51%、35%、8%、6%，主权类、基金资管、银行和保 险、交易商等类型投资者分别占比 26%、39%、32%、3%。此次发行的债券全部托管在香港金管 局债务工具中央结算系统（CMU），随后将在香港联合交易所和卢森堡证券交易所上市。 【财政部：提前下达 2026 年部分中央财政城镇保障性安居工程补助资金预算】11 月 19 日， 财政部发布通知，提前下达 2026 ...

资金面仍偏紧；债市窄幅震荡 （三）大宗商品 【内容摘要】11 月 18 日，资金面仍偏紧；债市窄幅震荡；转债市场主要指数集体跟跌，转债 个券多数下跌；各期限美债收益率普遍下行，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率走势分化。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【国家统计局发布 10 月份分年龄组失业率数据】11 月 18 日，国家统计局发布 10 月份分年龄 组失业率数据。10 月份，全国城镇不包含在校生的 16-24 岁劳动力失业率为 17.3%，不包含在 校生的 25-29 岁劳动力失业率为 7.2%，不包含在校生的 30-59 岁劳动力失业率为 3.8%。 【"两重"项目持续加力，基建投资增速料提升】近期，多个"两重"建设项目陆续开工。"两 重"是指国家重大战略实施和重点领域安全能力建设。日前召开的国务院常务会议提出，要把 "两重"建设放在"十五五"全局中谋划和推进，牢牢把握战略性、前瞻性、全局性要求，强 化部门协同，注重软硬结合，推动国家重大战略深入实施、重点领域安全能力稳步提升。 【北京：鼓励符合条件的科创企业通过债券市场募集资金】11 月 18 日，央行北京市分行等 12 部门印发《金融支持北京市提振和 ...

①美国三大股指全线收跌，道指跌1.18%报46590.24点，标普500指数跌0.92%报6672.41点，纳指跌 0.84%报22708.07点； ②美国大型科技股多数下跌，谷歌涨超3%，特斯拉涨逾1%，苹果跌近2%，英伟达跌近2%，脸书跌超 1%，亚马逊跌0.78%，微软跌0.53%； ③热门中概股多数下跌，阿特斯太阳能跌超15%，满帮集团跌近12%，小鹏汽车跌超10%，禾赛科技跌 逾6%，小马智行跌逾6%，晶科能源涨超13%，金山云涨近9%，大全新能源涨超3%，阿里巴巴涨逾 2%，华住集团涨超2%； ⑨美债收益率涨跌不一，2年期美债收益率涨0.63个基点报3.608%，3年期美债收益率涨0.28个基点报 3.611%，5年期美债收益率持平报3.728%，10年期美债收益率跌0.78个基点报4.137%，30年期美债收益 率跌1.20个基点报4.736%； ⑩欧债收益率集体下跌，英国10年期国债收益率跌3.9个基点报4.534%，法国10年期国债收益率跌0.6个 基点报3.451%，德国10年期国债收益率跌0.8个基点报2.711%，意大利10年期国债收益率跌2.6个基点报 3.444%，西班牙10年期国 ...

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones up 1.18% at 47927.96 points, the S&P 500 up 0.21% at 6846.61 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.25% at 23468.3 points [1] - Major US tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Apple rising over 2%, Microsoft up 0.53%, Google up 0.42%, Amazon up 0.28%, while Nvidia fell nearly 3%, Tesla down over 1%, and Facebook down 0.74% [1] - Chinese concept stocks had mixed results, with Xpeng Motors up nearly 8%, Qifu Technology up nearly 3%, Yum China up nearly 3%, and Beike up over 1%, while Hesai Technology fell nearly 10%, Canadian Solar down over 8%, JinkoSolar down over 5%, Tencent Music down nearly 4%, and Alibaba down over 3% [1] European Market - All three major European stock indices closed higher, with the German DAX index up 0.54% at 24090.53 points, the French CAC40 index up 1.3% at 8160.56 points, and the UK FTSE 100 index up 1.26% at 9910.39 points [1] Commodity Prices - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 0.27% at $4133.20 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 1.52% at $51.08 per ounce [1] - US oil main contract rose 1.51% to $61.04 per barrel, while Brent crude oil main contract increased by 1.7% to $65.15 per barrel [1] Currency and Bond Market - The US dollar index fell 0.14% to 99.48, and the offshore RMB against the US dollar fell by 9 basis points to 7.1225 [1] - US Treasury yields collectively fell, with the 2-year yield down 3.95 basis points to 3.551%, the 3-year yield down 6.44 basis points to 3.534%, the 5-year yield down 5.74 basis points to 3.656%, the 10-year yield down 5.25 basis points to 4.062%, and the 30-year yield down 3.60 basis points to 4.668% [1] - European bond yields also fell collectively, with the UK 10-year yield down 7.4 basis points to 4.386%, the French 10-year yield down 1.5 basis points to 3.422%, the German 10-year yield down 1 basis point to 2.656%, the Italian 10-year yield down 1.1 basis points to 3.398%, and the Spanish 10-year yield down 1 basis point to 3.162% [1]

Group 1 - Investors are selling U.S. Treasury bonds and buying risk assets as expectations rise that the federal government shutdown will soon end, leading to an increase in Treasury yields across the board [1][3] - As of the close on November 10, the 2-year Treasury yield rose by 3 basis points to 3.591%, the 10-year yield increased by 2 basis points to 4.116%, and the 30-year yield went up by 1 basis point to 4.706% [1] - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes narrowed slightly to 55 basis points [1] Group 2 - Investors are closely monitoring the bipartisan negotiations for a funding bill to end the government shutdown that began on October 1, with the Senate passing a procedural measure to advance the agreement [3] - The final agreement will fund the government until the end of January but does not include the Democrats' request to extend tax credits related to the Affordable Care Act [3] - The delay in key economic reports due to the government shutdown has left investors relying on less comprehensive private surveys, including the recently released Michigan consumer sentiment survey, which showed a decline in consumer confidence [3] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's recent financial stability report highlights policy uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and concerns over high long-term interest rates and fiscal debt sustainability as primary risks to financial stability [4] - The report indicates that hedge fund leverage has reached its highest level since comprehensive data collection began in 2013 [4] - Market expectations for a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December are significant, with a 64.1% probability of a 25 basis point cut [4] Group 4 - Disagreements among Federal Reserve officials regarding further rate cuts are intensifying, driven by inflation pressures and weak employment [5] - In the European bond market, yields are rising, with German, Italian, and French bond yields all experiencing increases [5] - Japanese financial institutions are adjusting their forecasts for the yen's exchange rate against the dollar, anticipating depreciation due to concerns over fiscal policies and interest rate expectations [5][7]

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones up 0.16% at 46,987.1 points, the S&P 500 up 0.13% at 6,728.8 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.21% at 23,004.54 points [1] - Major tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Tesla down over 3%, Google down more than 2%, while Intel rose over 2% and other companies like Nvidia, Netflix, Amazon, and Meta saw slight increases [1] Chinese Stocks - Most popular Chinese stocks declined, with Xpeng Motors down over 6%, Pony.ai and Zai Lab down more than 5%, and companies like Tencent Music and NIO down over 4% [1] European Market - All three major European stock indices closed lower, with the German DAX down 0.78% at 23,549.24 points, the French CAC40 down 0.18% at 7,950.18 points, and the UK FTSE 100 down 0.55% at 9,682.57 points [1] Commodity Prices - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 0.42% at $4,007.8 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 0.57% at $48.225 per ounce [1] - US oil main contract rose 0.69% to $59.84 per barrel, while Brent crude oil main contract increased by 0.47% to $63.68 per barrel [1] Currency and Debt Markets - The US dollar index fell 0.16% to 99.55, and the offshore RMB against the US dollar decreased by 43 basis points to 7.1252 [1] - US Treasury yields collectively rose, with the 2-year yield up 0.43 basis points to 3.560% and the 10-year yield up 1.54 basis points to 4.097% [1] - European bond yields also increased, with the UK 10-year yield up 3.2 basis points to 4.464% and the German 10-year yield up 1.6 basis points to 2.664% [1]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.84% at 46,912.3 points, the S&P 500 down 1.12% at 6,720.32 points, and the Nasdaq down 1.9% at 23,053.99 points [1] - Major tech stocks fell, with Nvidia and Tesla dropping over 3%, Intel, Amazon, and Meta down over 2%, and Microsoft down over 1% [1] - Popular Chinese concept stocks showed mixed results, with Xiaoma Zhixing down over 8%, Zai Ding Pharmaceutical down over 6%, and NIO down over 1%, while XPeng Motors rose over 9% and Baidu up over 3% [1] European Market - European stock indices also closed lower, with Germany's DAX down 1.29% at 23,740.38 points, France's CAC40 down 1.36% at 7,964.77 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.42% at 9,735.78 points [1] Commodity Prices - International precious metal futures generally declined, with COMEX gold futures down 0.20% at $3,984.80 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 0.37% at $47.85 per ounce [1] - U.S. oil futures fell slightly, with the main contract down 0.12% at $59.53 per barrel and Brent crude down 0.08% at $63.47 per barrel [1] Currency and Bond Markets - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.45% to 99.70, while the offshore RMB appreciated against the dollar by 104 basis points to 7.1209 [1] - U.S. Treasury yields collectively fell, with the 2-year yield down 7.20 basis points to 3.553% and the 10-year yield down 7.60 basis points to 4.083% [1] - European bond yields also declined, with the UK 10-year yield down 2.9 basis points to 4.432% and Germany's 10-year yield down 2.3 basis points to 2.648% [1]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.53%, the S&P 500 down 1.17%, and the Nasdaq down 2.04% [1] - Major tech stocks experienced declines, with Intel falling over 6%, Tesla down over 5%, Nvidia down over 3%, Google down over 2%, and Amazon and Meta down over 1% [1] - Most popular Chinese concept stocks also fell, with Xiaoma Zhixing down nearly 10%, Futu Holdings down over 7%, and Bilibili down over 5% [1] European Market - European stock indices had mixed results, with Germany's DAX down 0.76%, France's CAC40 down 0.52%, and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.14% [1] Commodity Prices - International precious metal futures generally declined, with COMEX gold futures down 1.81% at $3941.30 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 2.40% at $46.90 per ounce [1] - U.S. oil futures fell 1.02% to $60.43 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures dropped 0.85% to $64.34 per barrel [1] - London base metals all saw declines, with LME copper down 1.90% at $10,649.00 per ton and LME aluminum down 1.26% at $2,865.50 per ton [1] Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields collectively fell, with the 2-year yield down 2.87 basis points at 3.576% and the 10-year yield down 2.72 basis points at 4.083% [1] - European bond yields also decreased, with the UK 10-year yield down 1 basis point at 4.423% and the German 10-year yield down 1.3 basis points at 2.652% [1]

Group 1 - Dongwu Securities indicates that the recovery of prices is crucial for economic growth and capital markets, with favorable conditions in consumption demand, monetary liquidity, and exchange rates [1] - The chief economist of Dongwu Securities, Lu Zhe, highlights that long-term demographic, industrial, and fiscal transformations will boost household income, predicting a more optimistic total consumption due to the simultaneous movement of population and consumption peaks in the next decade [1] - The report suggests that the central bank's initiation of government bond trading and fiscal debt reduction will facilitate the transfer of fiscal deposits to households and enterprises, leading to a significant rebound in M1 growth over the past year, which will in turn drive PPI recovery [1] Group 2 - The dollar has slightly weakened as investors assess the differing views among Federal Reserve officials regarding future interest rate cuts, with some officials expressing caution due to persistent inflation [2] - Wall Street executives warn that investors should prepare for a potential market correction of over 10% within the next 12 to 24 months, emphasizing that such corrections are common in market cycles [2] Group 3 - Analysts from ING state that the daily fluctuations in Eurozone government bond yields are predominantly influenced by U.S. trends, as there are insufficient internal factors to change direction [3] - Mizuho Financial Group's CEO expresses confidence that Japan's growth-promoting policies and potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan will drive bank business expansion [3] Group 4 - Capital Economics suggests that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has room for future interest rate cuts, maintaining a neutral stance despite mixed economic data [4] - Moody's analysis indicates that the RBA is unlikely to cut rates until mid-2026 at the earliest, contingent on a convincing decline in inflation [4][5]