【内容摘要】2月27日，资金面稳中向宽，主要回购利率继续下行；债市止跌回暖；转债市场主要指数集体收跌，转债个券多数下跌；各期限美债收益率普 遍下行，主要欧洲经济体10年期国债收益率普遍下行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【中共中央政治局召开会议，讨论"十五五"规划纲要草案和政府工作报告】中共中央政治局2月27日召开会议，讨论国务院拟提请第十四届全国人民代表大 会第四次会议审查的中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划纲要草案稿和审议的《政府工作报告》稿。中共中央总书记习近平主持会议。会 议强调，要继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，强化改革举措与宏观政策协同。要着力建设强大国内市场，加紧培育壮大新动能，加快高 水平科技自立自强。持续深化重点领域改革，进一步扩大高水平对外开放，扎实推进乡村全面振兴，推动新型城镇化和区域协调发展。更大力度保障和改善 民生，加快推动全面绿色转型，加强重点领域风险防范化解和安全能力建设。要加强政府自身建设，牢固树立和践行正确政绩观。 【远期售汇业务外汇风险准备金率下调至0】央行2月27日宣布，为促进外汇市场发展，支持企业管理好汇率风险，自2026年3月2日起，将 ...

①美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道指涨0.03%报49499.2点，标普500指数跌0.54%报6908.86点，纳指跌 1.18%报22878.38点； ②大型科技股多数下跌，英伟达跌超5%，创去年4月16日以来最大单日跌幅；英特尔跌逾3%，特斯拉 跌超2%，谷歌、亚马逊跌超1%，苹果小幅下跌；奈飞涨超2%，微软、Meta小幅上涨； ③热门中概股多数下跌，盛美半导体跌超16%，百济神州跌逾8%，万国数据跌超7%，名创优品跌近 6%，百度集团跌超5%，贝壳跌逾5%；涨幅方面，大健云仓涨超33%，玉柴国际涨逾6%，希尔威金属 矿业涨超4%，小马智行涨逾4%； ④欧洲三大股指收盘全线上涨，德国DAX指数涨0.45%报25289.02点，法国CAC40指数涨0.72%报 8620.93点，英国富时100指数涨0.37%报10846.7点； ⑤国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX黄金期货跌0.47%报5201.50美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货跌3.02% 报88.86美元/盎司； ⑥美油主力合约收涨0.08%，报65.47美元/桶；布油主力合约涨0.48%，报71.03美元/桶； ⑦纽约尾盘，美元指数涨0.13%报97. ...

Group 1: Election Context - The Japanese House of Representatives election on February 8, 2026, will significantly impact the political landscape and debt risk in Japan[1] - The ruling coalition, consisting of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Innovation Party, holds 233 seats, while the opposition consists of the Center-Left Reform Alliance with 172 seats[3] - Current polls indicate a 99% probability that Prime Minister Kishi will remain in office, with an 81% chance that the LDP will secure over 250 seats[3] Group 2: Fiscal Policy Outlook - Post-election, Japan's macroeconomic policy will continue to favor expansionary fiscal measures, but with a more cautious approach to avoid a "Truss moment" scenario[2] - The LDP's proposed tax cuts, particularly a two-year suspension of the food tax, could create a fiscal gap of ¥5 trillion, representing 17% of new bond issuance[5] - Japan's fiscal deficit is projected to reach ¥40 trillion in 2025, with total government debt expected to be 230% of GDP[5] Group 3: Debt Risk Assessment - Japan's sovereign debt risk is relatively low, with a net international investment position of 84% of GDP, indicating a strong asset position[5] - The structure of Japanese debt ownership shows that only 14% is held by foreign investors, with the Bank of Japan holding 46%[5] - The potential for external spillover risks from Japan's debt situation will depend on the election outcome and subsequent government policies[5]

Core Viewpoint - The financial market is experiencing a mixed performance with a generally loose liquidity environment, a recovery in the bond market, and a decline in convertible bond indices and individual securities [1][9]. Group 1: Domestic News - The State Administration for Market Regulation is advancing the construction of a unified national market to enhance the vitality of various business entities and promote high-quality economic development [2]. - The Ministry of Commerce reported that by 2025, China's service trade is expected to grow steadily, with a total import and export value of 80,823.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.4% [3]. - A new policy has been implemented in Hainan Free Trade Port, allowing residents to purchase imported goods with a zero tariff policy, with an annual exemption limit of 10,000 yuan per person [4]. Group 2: International News - The U.S. JOLTS job openings fell to 6.542 million in December, the lowest level since September 2020, indicating a weakening demand for labor in an uneven job market [5]. - The European Central Bank has maintained its deposit rate at 2% for the fifth consecutive time, emphasizing the need for structural reforms amid geopolitical uncertainties and challenges in the external environment [6]. Group 3: Commodity Market - International crude oil futures prices fell, with WTI crude down by $1.85 to $63.29 per barrel, while natural gas prices continued to rise [7]. Group 4: Financial Market Operations - On February 5, the central bank conducted a 1,185 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 645 billion yuan for the day [8]. - The liquidity environment remains loose, with the DR001 and DR007 rates declining to 1.319% and 1.482%, respectively [9]. Group 5: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market showed signs of recovery, with the yield on the 10-year government bond falling by 0.50 basis points to 1.8080% [11]. - In the secondary market, two industrial bonds experienced significant price deviations, with "H1碧地03" rising over 20% and "H0中骏02" increasing by over 264% [13]. - The convertible bond market saw a collective decline, with major indices down by 0.84% to 0.95%, and a total trading volume of 740.66 billion yuan [17]. Group 6: Overseas Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields fell significantly, with the 2-year yield down 10 basis points to 3.47% and the 10-year yield down 8 basis points to 4.21% [20]. - In the European bond market, most major economies saw a decline in 10-year government bond yields, with Germany's yield down 2 basis points to 2.84% [21].

①美国三大股指全线收跌，道指跌1.2%报48908.72点，标普500指数跌1.23%报6798.4点，纳指跌1.59% 报22540.59点； ②大型科技股多数下跌，微软跌近5%，亚马逊跌超4%，特斯拉跌逾2%，英伟达跌超1%，谷歌跌 0.54%，苹果跌0.21%，脸书涨0.18%； ③热门中概股多数上涨，蔚来涨超5%，理想汽车涨超2%，哔哩哔哩涨超1%； ④欧洲三大股指收盘全线下跌，德国DAX指数跌0.93%报24373.06点，法国CAC40指数跌0.29%报 8238.17点，英国富时100指数跌0.9%报10309.22点； ⑧伦敦基本金属全线下跌，LME期锌跌0.32%报3298.5美元/吨，LME期铅跌0.64%报1954.0美元/吨， LME期铝跌1.42%报3026.0美元/吨，LME期铜跌1.45%报12855.0美元/吨，LME期镍跌1.84%报17060.0美 元/吨，LME期锡跌3.17%报46990.0美元/吨； ⑨美债收益率集体下跌，2年期美债收益率跌9.04个基点报3.457%，3年期美债收益率跌10.73个基点报 3.522%，5年期美债收益率跌10.58个基点报3.719% ...

新华财经北京2月4日电（王菁）债市周三（2月4日）小幅走弱，国债期货主力全线收跌，银行间现券表 现较期债稍稳，午后超长债收益率有所上行、其他期限品种多数窄幅波动；公开市场单日净回笼3025亿 元，短端资金利率延续回升。 机构认为，资金面整体平稳，跨月后需求端压力暂时不大。就近期现券表现来看，股市震荡后收益率变 动不大，但股市上涨施压影响却相对明显，显示债券自身定力一般。当下债市重新回到缺少方向的状 态，如果没有新的刺激，春节前料以震荡为主。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘全线下跌，30年期主力合约跌0.23%报111.7，10年期主力合约跌0.01%报108.24，5年期主 力合约跌0.04%报105.85，2年期主力合约跌0.02%报102.398。 银行间主要利率债延续盘整、表现小幅分化，截至发稿，10年期国开债"25国开15"收益率下行0.05BP报 1.957%，10年期国债"25附息国债16"收益率上行0.15BP报1.8125%，30年期国债"25超长特别国债06"收 益率上行0.25BP报2.251%。 中证转债指数收盘下跌0.04%，报521.27，成交金额849.68亿元。奥飞转债、鼎捷转债、耐 ...

资金面保持均衡平稳；债市偏弱震荡 【内容摘要】2 月 2 日，资金面保持均衡平稳；债市偏弱震荡；转债市场主要指数集体跟跌， 转债个券多数下跌；各期限美债收益率普遍上行，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍上 行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【李强在山东调研时强调坚持远近结合，抓好开局起步，更加扎实有效促发展惠民生增后劲】 中共中央政治局常委、国务院总理李强 2 月 2 日在山东调研。他强调，要深入贯彻习近平总书 记关于做好今年和"十五五"时期经济社会发展工作的重要指示精神，坚持远近结合，抓好开 局起步，靠前发力实施各项政策，坚决把党中央各项决策部署落实到位，更加扎实有效地促发 展惠民生增后劲。 财政部、税务总局日前发布《增值税预缴税款管理办法》《关于增值税进项税额抵扣等有关事 项的公告》，自 2026 年 1 月 1 日起施行。财政部、税务总局日前发布《长期资产进项税额抵 扣暂行办法》，自 2026 年 1 月 1 日起施行。办法提到，纳税人取得以下长期资产，用于混合 用途的，购进时先全额抵扣进项税额，此后在用于混合用途期间，根据调整年限计算五类不允 许抵扣项目对应的不得从销项税额中抵扣的进项税额，逐 ...

【内容摘要】 1 月 30 日，资金面整体均衡平稳；债市偏强震荡；转债市场主要指数集体下跌， 转债个券多数下跌；各期限美债收益率走势分化，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍上 行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【《求是》杂志发表习近平总书记重要文章《走好中国特色金融发展之路，建设金融强国》】 2 月 1 日出版的第 3 期《求是》杂志发表国家主席习近平的重要文章《走好中国特色金融发展 之路，建设金融强国》。文章指出，建设金融强国，必须加快构建中国特色现代金融体系。一 是科学稳健的金融调控体系，二是结构合理的金融市场体系，三是分工协作的金融机构体系， 四是完备有效的金融监管体系，五是多样化专业性的金融产品和服务体系，六是自主可控、安 全高效的金融基础设施体系。 1 月制造业 PMI 为 49.3%；资金面整体均衡平稳，债市偏强震荡 （三）大宗商品 【国际原油期货价格转跌，国际天然气价格转涨】1 月 30 日，WTI 3 月原油期货收跌 0.32%， 报 65.21 美元/桶；布伦特 3 月原油期货收跌 0.03%，报 70.69 美元/桶；COMEX 黄金期货下跌 8.88%，报 4846.20 美元/ ...

Group 1: Domestic News - Premier Li Qiang emphasized the importance of combining short-term and long-term strategies to effectively promote development and improve people's livelihoods during his research in Shandong [2] - The Central Committee and the State Council approved the "Modern Capital Metropolitan Area Spatial Coordination Plan (2023-2035)", which aims to enhance the capital's functions and promote high-quality regional development [2] Group 2: International News - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for January in the U.S. rose significantly from 47.9 to 52.6, surpassing expectations of 48.5, indicating robust growth in new orders and production [5] - A trade agreement between the U.S. and India was reached, reducing U.S. tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to 18%, with India agreeing to lower its tariffs on U.S. products [6] Group 3: Commodity Market - International crude oil prices fell, with WTI crude down 4.71% to $62.14 per barrel and Brent crude down 4.36% to $66.30 per barrel [7] Group 4: Financial Market - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 750 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 755 billion yuan due to 1,505 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing [8] - The money market remained stable, with the DR001 rate rising by 3.65 basis points to 1.364% and the DR007 rate falling by 10.2 basis points to 1.491% [9] Group 5: Bond Market - The bond market experienced fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 0.50 basis points to 1.8150% [9] - In the credit bond market, significant price deviations were noted, with "H0 Zhongjun 02" dropping over 72% and "H1 Bidi 03" dropping over 56% [11] Group 6: Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market saw a collective decline, with major indices falling by 2.39% to 2.31%, and a total trading volume of 850.83 billion yuan, down 81.89 billion yuan from the previous trading day [14]

Core Viewpoint - The risk of a U.S. economic recession remains low, with current market concerns focused on high stock valuations. The company suggests maintaining a positive outlook on the stock market while diversifying investments through assets like gold to balance the portfolio [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is still mild, supported by ongoing U.S. fiscal stimulus and low unemployment rates, leading to a gradual decline in interest rates [1] - The balance of "low layoffs and low hiring" persists, indicating limited recession risk in the U.S. economy [1] Group 2: Stock Market Strategy - The company plans to overweight the MSCI World Index while reallocating investments to value stocks outside the U.S. due to high valuations in certain U.S. sectors [1][2] - The overall stock market outlook remains positive, driven by favorable macroeconomic conditions and sustained corporate earnings growth alongside broad fiscal stimulus measures [2] Group 3: Commodity Outlook - The company has upgraded its outlook on commodities, particularly energy, due to stable demand and limited new supply, with expectations for upward price movement [2] - Gold remains the preferred safe-haven asset, supported by strong demand from central banks and consumers in China, along with expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [2] - Industrial metals are expected to see price increases due to supply disruptions and anticipated policy support from China, leading to a tight supply situation [2] Group 4: Currency Strategy - The company is optimistic about the euro's prospects, supported by liquidity expansion and potential divergence in monetary policy, particularly if Germany's fiscal stimulus plans become clearer [2]