美国财长贝森特：（特朗普政府）认为我们与众议院和参议院都"处于（减税）协议之中"。 希望我们到7月4日（美国独立日）能敲定税收政策的下调幅度。 总统特朗普已经表态，不考虑调整百万富翁的税收政策。 ...

民调支持率持续下滑之际，美国总统特朗普试图通过关税收入为美国人减税以挽回民心，但这一计划 很可能难以实现。 当地时间4月27日，特朗普在其社交媒体平台上表示，在关税收入的支持下，"许多人的所得税将大 幅减少，甚至完全取消"，并承诺重点为年收入低于20万美元的人群减税。 2025.04. 27 本文字数：2069，阅读时长大约3分钟 导读 ：即便特朗普进一步提高关税税率，数学上也仍不可能用关税收入替代所得税。 然而，经济学家普遍认为这一计划缺乏可行性。耶鲁大学预算实验室经济学主任特德斯基（Ernie Tedeschi）认为，即便特朗普进一步提高关税税率，数学上也仍不可能用关税收入替代所得税。美 国外交关系委员会（CFR）本月发布的研究更是直指这一说法"荒谬离谱"，并称"关税对经济的破坏 性影响使得这一目标显得不切实际且缺乏责任感"。 作者 | 第一财经 高雅 东方汇理资产管理投资研究院全球宏观研究主管普拉丹（Mahmood Pradhan）对第一财经记者表 示，关税不会给美国带来显著的收入增长，反而更可能导致消费减少和需求下降。同时，"美国当前 的财政政策仍缺乏具体细节，提升联邦支出的效率也远未达到承诺的目标" ...

Core Viewpoint - Trump's plan to use tariff revenue to replace income tax is deemed impractical by economists, as it cannot generate sufficient revenue to offset income tax losses [1][2][3] Group 1: Economic Impact of Tariffs - Trump's tariff policy has significantly impacted the global economy, raising concerns about rising prices among American consumers and leading to a decline in his approval ratings [2] - A recent Ipsos poll indicated that 64% of Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of tariffs, with 69% believing his administration is failing to curb rising prices [2] - The Yale University budget lab estimates that the tariff policy could generate $2.4 trillion in revenue from 2026 to 2035, but after accounting for negative dynamic revenue effects, the average annual revenue would be only $176.9 billion, less than one-third of Navarro's optimistic projection [3] Group 2: Feasibility of Tax Replacement - The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) argues that the idea of replacing income tax with tariffs is unrealistic, citing that the effective tariff rate of 28% would only yield an additional $511 billion in revenue after considering import transfer effects [3] - The bottom 90% of income earners contribute $576 billion in income tax, which exceeds the expected tariff revenue, highlighting the inadequacy of tariffs to replace income tax [3] - The increase in tariff rates could lead to a shrinking tax base, further complicating the feasibility of using tariffs to replace income tax [3] Group 3: Political and Legislative Context - Trump's proposal to eliminate income tax for low-income earners may inadvertently harm them by removing refundable tax credits, leading to a net loss in purchasing power [4] - The potential for tariffs to replace income tax is limited, with estimates suggesting that tariffs could only cover up to 40% of income tax revenue, necessitating very high tariff rates that could trigger an economic recession [4] - Trump's administration is seeking to extend the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, which is set to expire in 2025, and has proposed various tax cuts, raising concerns about how to fund these initiatives [5]

匈牙利总理欧尔班：尽管面临全球贸易战争，将继续推行减税政策。 ...

Group 1 - The Trump administration is considering a two-step tariff strategy, which includes imposing emergency tariffs before completing investigations on trade partners [1][2] - The proposed plan aims to establish a solid legal framework for reciprocal tariffs while generating funds for Trump's planned tax cuts [1][2] - The administration is discussing the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act or a lesser-known provision of the 1930 Tariff Act, which could impose tariffs as high as 50% on trade partners [1][2] Group 2 - Trump has promised to announce new tariff policies on April 2, referred to as "Liberation Day," leading countries to lobby for exemptions [2][4] - The internal debate within the administration reflects differing views on the purpose of tariffs, with some officials focusing on revenue generation for tax cuts rather than using tariffs as negotiation tools [2][3] - The U.S. Trade Representative is increasingly taking on a legal planning role, advocating for investigations of trade partners before imposing tariffs, which may take up to six months [3] Group 3 - The White House is committed to creating a fair competitive environment for U.S. businesses and workers, with plans to advance the tariff strategy on April 2 [4] - The upcoming tariff policy is seen as an evolution of Trump's previous proposals to impose tariffs on U.S. exporters, which have been inconsistent and often reversed under corporate pressure [4] - Since taking office, Trump has imposed a uniform 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports, with threats of retaliatory tariffs on French wine and other products following the EU's response to U.S. metal tariffs [4]

文 ｜ 贾天楚 崔嵘 李翀 韦昕澄 我们经过测算发现，基准情形下，通过增加关税、压降北约军费支出与DOGE减少支出或难对冲减 税带来的财政赤字增加，2 0 2 5 - 2 0 2 6年美国财政赤字率或难大幅下降。一方面，受限于两院博弈以 及党内派系分歧，减税政策或"瘦身落地"；另一方面，通过增加关税、DOGE以及北约军费压缩的 方式带来的金额或低于特朗普口头沟通的规模。此外，特朗普政府或还倾向通过压降联邦基金利率 来降低利息支出压力，不过该方法或需至2 6 / 2 7年方能见成效。同时需关注保险金支出的压降政 策。整体来看，2 0 2 5年美国或仍呈现"小幅宽货币以及稳财政"的政策风格，财政赤字率或在高位 保持稳定。 ▍ 近期特朗普一系列"开源节流"的政策引发市场关注，市场对于特朗普政府能否压降美国财政支 出产生了分歧。我们对该问题进行定量分析。 ▍ 正在进行的政策分析：我们经过测算发现基准情形下，通过增加关税、压降北约军费支出与 DOGE减少支出或难对冲减税带来的财政赤字的增加，2 0 2 5 - 2 0 2 6年美国财政赤字率或难大幅下 降 。具体而言： 存在的结构性责任失衡对美国财政可持续性造成的压力。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall CPI and core CPI in February were lower than expected, indicating a downward trend year-on-year and a weakening trend month-on-month [2][12] Group 1: February CPI Analysis - The CPI year-on-year decreased from 3% to 2.8%, while the core CPI fell from 3.3% to 3.1%, both below market expectations [2][12] - Month-on-month, the CPI increased by 0.2%, below the expected 0.3%, and the previous value of 0.5%; core CPI also rose by 0.2%, against an expectation of 0.3% and a prior value of 0.4% [2][12] - The proportion of CPI items with a year-on-year increase exceeding 2% rose from 40% to 41.4%, while the core CPI items increased from 44% to 48% [12] Group 2: Structural Characteristics of CPI Changes - Food prices saw a decrease in growth from 0.4% to 0.2%, contributing less to CPI growth, with the impact of rising egg prices offset by declines in other food categories [3][14] - Energy prices dropped from 1.1% to 0.2%, significantly reducing their contribution to CPI, with gasoline prices shifting from a 1.8% increase to a 0.9% decrease [3][15] - Core goods prices decreased from 0.3% to 0.2%, with the main improvement attributed to a slowdown in used car price increases [3][15] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook - Concerns about stagflation have eased, leading to a recovery in market risk appetite, as the CPI data alleviated fears of rising inflation [6][19] - The market's response to the CPI report included a slight increase in long-term U.S. Treasury yields and a rise in stock indices, indicating a shift towards expectations of economic stabilization [6][19] - The Federal futures market still anticipates three rate cuts this year, but the probability of a May rate cut has decreased from 41.3% to 31% [6][20] Group 4: CPI Forecast for the Year - The forecast for U.S. CPI remains unchanged, with core CPI expected to be around 3% and overall CPI at approximately 2.5% for the year [9][21] - Quarterly CPI projections are approximately 2.7%, 2.3%, 2.4%, and 2.5%, with core CPI expected to be 3.1%, 3.0%, 3.0%, and 2.9% respectively [9][21]