Core Viewpoint - The Peruvian Minister of Economy does not believe that U.S. tariffs will pose a serious economic risk to Peru [1] Group 1 - The Minister expressed confidence in the resilience of the Peruvian economy despite potential external pressures from U.S. tariffs [1] - There is an emphasis on the importance of maintaining trade relations and the potential for continued economic growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank's Governing Council member Kazaks stated that a 10% tariff from the United States, combined with a more than 10% appreciation of the euro, would significantly negatively impact exports [1] Group 1 - The potential impact of U.S. tariffs on European exports is highlighted, indicating a direct correlation between tariff increases and currency appreciation [1]

研究局限性和风险提示 | | 20250630申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期区间波动 | | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 摘要 | 铝： 可能短期内震荡 | | | | 镍： 可能短期内震荡 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：周末夜盘铜价收平。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产 | | | 铜 | 量。根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电力行业延续 正增长；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续疲弱。多空因素交 | 可能短期区 | | | 织，铜价可能区间波动。关注美国关税进展，以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量 | 间波动 | | | 等因素变化。 | | | | 锌：周末夜盘锌价收涨。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来 看，国内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲 | 可能短期宽 | | 锌 | 弱。市场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复。短期锌价可能宽 | 幅波动 | | | 幅波动，关注美国关税进展，以及美元、锌冶炼和家电产量等因素变化。 ...

泰国财政部长：希望美国关税不会高于其他国家。 ...

日本政府官员：担心美国关税影响的企业数量略微增加。 ...

两人确认关于美国关税的立场。 日本内阁官房长官声明：日本首席谈判代表、经济再生大臣赤泽亮正（Ryosei Akazawa）已于6月27日 会见美国商务部长卢特尼克。 日本和美国将继续致力于达成一份协议。 ...

日本央行审议委员田村直树：依据对日本央行关于企业的调查情况，似乎许多企业对美国关税的影响持 谨慎乐观的态度。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite the impact of U.S. tariffs, many companies in Japan may continue to raise wages to address labor shortages and engage in high levels of business fixed investment [1] Group 1 - Companies are likely to increase wages in response to labor shortages [1] - High levels of business fixed investment are expected to continue among companies [1]

德国工业联合会：美国关税特别将产生负面影响。预计德国经济将在2025年收缩0.3%，此前预计为收 缩0.1%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of Shell (SHEL.N) stated that the net impact of U.S. tariffs on energy products is very limited [1] Group 1 - The CEO emphasized that the overall effect of U.S. tariffs on the energy sector is minimal [1]