Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is closely monitoring the volatility of foreign exchange rates [1] - The risk of inflation being lower than expected is increasing [1] - A stronger euro may exacerbate the risk of inflation being below expectations [1] Group 2 - U.S. tariffs are not expected to have an impact on inflation [1] - The ECB is currently in a good position regarding interest rates and inflation [1] - The ECB must remain pragmatic and flexible amid global uncertainties [1]

Economic Outlook - Thailand's economic growth forecast for 2025 has been revised down to a range of 1.5% to 2% due to political instability and uncertainty affecting domestic economic drivers, particularly exports and government budget spending [1] - The World Bank has lowered its GDP growth forecast for Thailand in 2025 by 1.1%, now predicting a growth rate of only 1.8% due to global economic uncertainties leading to domestic economic weakness [1] - The Thai Commercial Bank's Economic Information Center has also reduced its growth forecast for 2026 to 1.4%, attributing the decline to trade tensions, changes in US policy, domestic economic vulnerabilities, and limited fiscal space [1] Trade and Exports - Despite a 14.9% increase in exports in the first five months of the year, this growth is primarily attributed to a surge in imports before the expiration of a 90-day tariff suspension by the US [2] - If the US imposes a 10% tariff, Thailand's economic growth rate may stabilize around 2%, but an increase to 18% could reduce the growth rate to approximately 1.5% [2] - The Thai Chamber of Commerce predicts that exports may shrink by over 10% in the second half of the year, potentially leading to near-zero growth for the entire year of 2025, which would directly impact manufacturing and employment [2] Political Stability and Investment - The ongoing political uncertainty, particularly with the suspension of Prime Minister Petongtarn, raises concerns about the stability of the current ruling coalition and the potential for government collapse before the next budget is passed [1] - Foreign investors have been net sellers of Thai stocks for nine consecutive months, with a total sell-off of $3.9 billion, reflecting concerns over the political outlook [2] - The performance of the Thai economy in the second half of the year will depend on several variables, including US Federal Reserve monetary policy, a rebound in tourism, and the speed of domestic budget spending [3]

新加坡称美国关税可能持续到特朗普政府任期结束后。 ...

日本央行审议委员高田创：美国关税尚未阻碍日本企业的积极表现，但存在可能出现波折的风险，因此 希望密切关注相关发展。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Peruvian Minister of Economy does not believe that U.S. tariffs will pose a serious economic risk to Peru [1] Group 1 - The Minister expressed confidence in the resilience of the Peruvian economy despite potential external pressures from U.S. tariffs [1] - There is an emphasis on the importance of maintaining trade relations and the potential for continued economic growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank's Governing Council member Kazaks stated that a 10% tariff from the United States, combined with a more than 10% appreciation of the euro, would significantly negatively impact exports [1] Group 1 - The potential impact of U.S. tariffs on European exports is highlighted, indicating a direct correlation between tariff increases and currency appreciation [1]

研究局限性和风险提示 | | 20250630申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期区间波动 | | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 摘要 | 铝： 可能短期内震荡 | | | | 镍： 可能短期内震荡 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：周末夜盘铜价收平。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产 | | | 铜 | 量。根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电力行业延续 正增长；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续疲弱。多空因素交 | 可能短期区 | | | 织，铜价可能区间波动。关注美国关税进展，以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量 | 间波动 | | | 等因素变化。 | | | | 锌：周末夜盘锌价收涨。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来 看，国内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲 | 可能短期宽 | | 锌 | 弱。市场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复。短期锌价可能宽 | 幅波动 | | | 幅波动，关注美国关税进展，以及美元、锌冶炼和家电产量等因素变化。 ...

泰国财政部长：希望美国关税不会高于其他国家。 ...

日本政府官员：担心美国关税影响的企业数量略微增加。 ...

两人确认关于美国关税的立场。 日本内阁官房长官声明：日本首席谈判代表、经济再生大臣赤泽亮正（Ryosei Akazawa）已于6月27日 会见美国商务部长卢特尼克。 日本和美国将继续致力于达成一份协议。 ...