人民财讯8月13日电，华泰证券指出，美国7月通胀数据显示关税对通胀的传导较为温和，根据Cavallo 等研究显示，关税宣布后10—15周（3—4个月）商品价格上涨达到最大，关税的传导较为迅速，但是由 于企业感知的需求偏弱，企业仅将50—60%关税压力传导给消费者，避免了通胀的更大幅度上行。往前 看，由于8月美国对外关税有一定程度上升，预计关税仍可能继续温和推高核心通胀，但企业需求偏弱 以及就业市场走弱对通胀的上行幅度构成制约，而需求放缓以及驱逐非法移民加速意味着三季度就业市 场仍面临压力，因此维持美联储9月首次降息、年内降息2次的判断。 （原标题：华泰证券：维持美联储9月首次降息、年内降息2次的判断） ...

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman supports three interest rate cuts this year, citing weak labor market data as a key factor [3][5] - Bowman previously supported maintaining interest rates until June but voted against the decision in July, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [3][5] - She urges other decision-makers to initiate rate cuts at the September Federal Reserve meeting to prevent further deterioration in the labor market [5][7] Group 2 - The U.S. labor market shows signs of cooling, with non-farm employment increasing by only 73,000 in July, below expectations, and the unemployment rate rising from 4.1% to 4.2% [7][9] - Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise by 0.3% in July, compared to a 0.2% increase in June, indicating a potential uptick in inflation due to higher tariffs [9][10] - Higher tariffs are beginning to affect consumer prices, particularly in household goods and entertainment, creating a dilemma for Federal Reserve officials who are trying to assess the impact on sustained inflation while monitoring labor market trends [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The company expects a decline in revenue for the third quarter due to U.S. tariffs, early inventory pull-ins by customers, and the continued appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar [1][3]. Group 1: Revenue Forecast - The company estimates third-quarter revenue to be between NT$237 billion and NT$247 billion (approximately RMB 57 billion to RMB 59.4 billion), representing a quarter-over-quarter decline of 6-10% and a year-over-year decline of 11-15% [1][3]. - Gross margin is projected to be between 34-37%, and operating margin is expected to be between 15-18% [1]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The impact of U.S. tariffs has been established, and the company will closely monitor its effects on the industry and economy [3]. - The consumer electronics sector benefited from China's subsidies and early inventory pull-ins due to U.S. tariffs in the first half of the year, but these effects are diminishing, leading to a more conservative ordering attitude from customers [3]. Group 3: Product Line Performance - Revenue from the small and medium-sized driver ICs is expected to decline less significantly, while the large-size DDIC is anticipated to see the largest reduction due to the tapering off of the effects from China's subsidies and tariffs [3][4]. - The performance of televisions is expected to remain stable, while laptops may see slight growth, and both tablets and monitors are projected to decline [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company is cautious about the fourth quarter, focusing on the impact of U.S. tariffs, the appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar, and potential inventory demands driven by promotions in China [4]. - The company anticipates an increase in shipments of OLED TDDI, with expectations of over 10 million units shipped this year due to successful mass production of new models [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Brazilian ETF listed in the US experienced a post-market decline of 0.26% [1] Group 1: Economic Relations - Brazilian Finance Minister Haddad expressed that US President Trump is interested in dialogue with the Brazilian President, which he considers "great" [1] - Haddad stated he is always available for discussions with US Treasury Secretary Yellen [1] Group 2: Trade Concerns - Haddad advised not to believe in the macroeconomic impacts of US tariffs, but rather to be more concerned about the microeconomic effects caused by these tariffs [1]

Core Insights - The average global tariff rate imposed by the U.S. is estimated to be around 18% according to BlueBay Asset Management [1] - The projected annual revenue from U.S. tariffs is approximately $450 billion, with an expected increase to $770 billion in 2024, representing 1.25% of GDP [1] - This tariff revenue is anticipated to help reduce the U.S. fiscal deficit to slightly below 7% of GDP in the coming year [1]

Core Viewpoint - Malaysia's Trade Minister announced that pharmaceutical and semiconductor products will be exempt from U.S. tariffs, indicating a strategic advantage for these sectors in the Malaysian economy [1] Group 1: Industry Impact - The exemption from U.S. tariffs is expected to bolster the pharmaceutical and semiconductor industries in Malaysia, enhancing their competitiveness in the global market [1] - This decision may lead to increased foreign investment in these sectors, as companies seek to capitalize on the favorable trade conditions [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - The move is likely to support Malaysia's economic growth by maintaining the stability of key export sectors, which are crucial for the country's trade balance [1] - It reflects Malaysia's ongoing efforts to strengthen its trade relationships and position itself as a key player in the global supply chain for pharmaceuticals and semiconductors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Minister of Economic Revitalization, Akizawa Ryozo, stated that U.S. tariffs will lead to a global slowdown, resulting in decreased exports and weakened demand, which will subsequently impact the Japanese economy [1] Group 1 - U.S. tariffs are expected to cause a global economic slowdown [1] - The slowdown will lead to a decline in exports [1] - Weakened demand due to tariffs will affect the Japanese economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market's muted reaction to the latest U.S. tariffs suggests that investors may have already anticipated these developments and adjusted their portfolios accordingly [1] Market Reaction - Analysts note that market volatility remains orderly, indicating a lack of panic among investors [1] - There has been no significant sell-off in growth assets such as U.S. stock index futures and Bitcoin, nor a substantial shift towards safe-haven assets like the U.S. dollar and gold [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. tariffs create a lose-lose situation, leading to higher costs for American consumers [1] Group 1 - The Vice President of Brazil emphasizes that U.S. tariffs will result in increased prices for products, ultimately affecting American consumers [1]

Group 1: Company Overview and Market Conditions - The overall business situation from April to June remained stable, with export sales affected by U.S. tariffs and order cycles, leading to a slowdown in sales but still maintaining normal levels [2] - Domestic market competition has intensified, prompting the company to adjust marketing strategies and actively promote market expansion, resulting in steady growth in shipment volume [2] Group 2: Impact of U.S. Tariffs - Export sales to the U.S. are primarily impacted by tariffs, with the highest tariff reaching 145%, causing many customers to adopt a wait-and-see approach; however, orders are gradually returning to normal after the retention of a 30% tariff [3] - Tariffs are generally borne by customers through FOB arrangements, with some costs reflected in product pricing, and the company also absorbs part of the tariff [3] - The company maintains close communication with customers to develop countermeasures and plans to participate in 29 trade shows in 2025 to explore other overseas and domestic markets [3] Group 3: Financial Performance and Future Outlook - The impact of tariffs on gross profit margins is uncertain and will be clarified in the 2025 semi-annual report; however, the expected change is not significant [3] - The company has not seen a reduction in customer reliance on its products, and the demand in the U.S. market remains relatively stable, particularly for bathroom products [3] - The company aims to maintain its advantages in plastic bathroom pumps while significantly developing stainless steel pumps, with plans to expand product categories and sales channels [4] Group 4: Dividend Policy - The company has historically maintained a high cash dividend ratio, with cumulative net profit of CNY 2.773 billion and cumulative cash dividends of CNY 2.255 billion, exceeding 80% of net profit [4] - Future dividend distributions will depend on the company's development needs and actual operating conditions, subject to approval by the board and shareholders [4]