智通财经APP获悉，2025年10月6日，日本央行在最新发布的区域经济季度报告中维持了对经济前景的 谨慎乐观看法，但警告称美国关税对企业利润的影响仍存在挥之不去的不确定性，暗示其倾向于在加息 前等待更多数据。 在区域分行行长季度会议总结中，日本央行指出部分地区企业反馈称，若美国关税导致利润显著下滑， 可能需抑制工资增长;但其他地区企业则认为，劳动力短缺、最低工资上调及近期食品成本上涨等因 素，仍要求继续提高工资水平。尽管美国关税对出口及产出构成压力，但部分地区人工智能相关订单需 求旺盛，形成一定支撑。 报告还提到，许多企业计划继续增加资本支出以优化运营并满足信息技术需求，但也有部分企业因关税 不确定性选择推迟或审查支出计划。 回顾历史，日本央行去年结束长达十年的大规模刺激政策，并于今年1月将利率上调至0.5%，主要依据 是日本即将实现2%通胀目标。植田和男此前曾表示，若日本经济在持续工资增长与内需推动下，稳定 通胀可能性增强，央行将准备继续推进加息进程。 据了解，当地时间10月4日，日本执政党自民党总裁选举结果揭晓，高市早苗击败小泉进次郎等多名竞 争对手，成功当选自民党新一任总裁。高市早苗主张财政扩张和政治右 ...

瑞士央行称，2025年上半年全球经济增长有所放缓，全球经济发展正受到美国关税及持续高不确定性的 影响而受到抑制，预计未来几个季度全球经济增长将放缓。美国的通货膨胀很可能在一段时间内保持高 位，而在欧元区，通货膨胀预计将维持在目标附近。 瑞士央行称，由于美国关税大幅提高，瑞士经济前景已恶化。关税很可能尤其会抑制出口和投资；在目 前环境下，失业率很可能继续上升。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京9月25日电瑞士央行周四将关键利率维持在零水平，这是主要央行中最低的水平，因其权 衡了特朗普关税对瑞士经济的影响。 瑞士央行决策结果正如市场和机构调查所预期的那样，这得益于近几个月通胀率的小幅上升。此次决定 标志着瑞士央行在连续七次会议降息后首次暂停行动（该行自2024年3月起开始降息）。 瑞士央行表示，将按政策利率水平对活期存款支付利息，直至达到某一特定门槛；将继续根据需要在外 汇市场保持活跃。瑞士央行预计2025年瑞士GDP为1%-1.5%（此前预测为1.0%-1.5%）；预计2025年通 胀率为0.2%（此前预测为0.2%）。 ...

据阿波罗全球资产管理公司（Apollo Global Management）首席经济学家Torsten Sløk最新估算，美国政府目前征收的关税收入年化约为 3500亿美元，这是一笔"可观"的数额。 关税——基本上是对进口商品征收的税，长期以来一直是美国经济政策中有争议的工具。它们传统上用于保护国内产业或筹集公共资 金，近年来作为贸易战略的核心重新出现。如今，每年3500亿美元的税收规模是近代史上最重要的贡献之一。 Sløk认为："最重要的是，征收的关税收入数额非常可观。" 家庭影响 虽然关税带来了大量资金，但负担并不平均。经济学家普遍认为，关税成本会转嫁给消费者。当政府对进口商品征税时，零售商和批发 商往往会提高价格，这可能导致从电子产品到家居用品等一系列产品的消费者成本上升。 Sløk补充称，这个数字大约相当于每年家庭所得税支付的18%，并强调关税不是一个边缘工具，而是塑造美国经济和贸易格局的重要收 入来源。 不过专家也警告称，不要高估关税削减赤字的能力。这些资金虽然意义重大，但只是彻底填补债务缺口所需资金的一小部分。例如， CRFB指出，最近的关税收益，如果是永久性的，将"有意义地减少赤字"，但不能单独 ...

未来一周：持续关注中美互动；联合国大会；地缘冲突；美国关税及其他内 政。 ❑ 上周时政回顾： 证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 09 月 21 日 聚焦中美关系后续进展 ——国际时政周评 上周回顾：中美第四轮经贸会谈及中美元首通话；王毅外长访问欧洲；地缘冲 突；美国关税及其他内政。 ❑ 未来一周关注： 魏芸 S1090522010002 weiyun@cmschina.com.cn 定期报告 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 1）9 月 14-15 日中美第四轮经贸会谈；9 月 19 日中美元首通话。中美经贸 会谈仍延续此前先解决短期风险、稳定市场预期，同时继续推动更深层 次磋商、积累互信，但坚持底线不急于达成最终协议的风格。除经贸议 题，近期中美在军事外交上也持续互动。考虑到特朗普政府目前在其他 地缘冲突议程上缺乏进展、对俄油买家制裁威胁实施难度大、美国内政 问题持续占据政府精力，持续关注中美后续互动及双边关系进展，关注 下一轮经贸会谈、10 月底在韩国举办的 APEC 峰会。 2）9 月 12-16 日王毅外长访问奥地利、斯洛文尼亚、波兰。其中，中国波 兰双方讨论了中国稀土相关物项对波出口许可事宜，且愿 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The global export market is showing a divergent trend, with U.S. tariffs impacting labor-intensive products like sports shoes and toys, leading to order shifts to other countries. The high base from U.S. export rush in 2024 is affecting this year's performance [1][5] - The automotive industry is performing exceptionally well, driven by U.S. auto parts export rush and strong demand for new energy vehicles in emerging markets. Pure electric vehicle sales in Europe have increased by over 20%, and infrastructure demand in regions like Africa and Vietnam has boosted heavy machinery sales [1][6] - The medical device industry has seen a slowdown in growth to around 5%, primarily due to negative growth in the European market, although it remains higher than most industries. The rapid growth in the first half of the year (15%-20%) contributed to this slowdown [1][7] - In the current inflationary environment, government and institutional procurement decisions are significantly impacted, leading to delays in large equipment purchases and a reduction of over 18% in consumer electronics orders. However, upstream electronic components have shown slight growth [1][8] - The photovoltaic and lithium battery sectors have seen a narrowing decline in orders, with significant demand for lithium batteries in non-U.S. regions. Although shipments of photovoltaic components in Europe and North America have decreased, some growth has been maintained through rerouting via Southeast Asia to avoid tariffs [1][10] - The small tools and gardening tools market has experienced significant order growth due to promotions and increased brand recognition. New factory capacities in Vietnam may reduce exports of small tools from China [1][11] Key Insights - Over half of the companies reported an increase in export prices, primarily due to rising tariff costs, premium pricing for high-end products, and the introduction of new products that enhance value. Some companies are adopting a price-for-volume strategy to cope with competition [2][16] - In July and August, companies reported a year-on-year improvement in export orders, with the proportion of companies seeing improvement rising from about 55% to approximately two-thirds. Most industries, including consumer goods, machinery, and automotive, exceeded expectations, except for the photovoltaic and lithium battery sector [3][6] - The automotive sector is highlighted as the strongest performer, with a surge in orders due to export rush operations and robust demand for new energy vehicles in emerging markets [6] - The medical device sector's growth is slightly below seasonal expectations, with a year-on-year increase of about 5%, influenced by earlier rapid growth and recent negative trends in Europe [7] - The inflationary environment is causing significant impacts on procurement decisions, leading to a decline in overall order volumes, particularly in the consumer electronics sector [8] - The communication and IoT sectors are performing well due to increased demand for data centers and AR applications, with significant growth in orders for optical communication modules and related products [9] Additional Observations - The global machine tool market is experiencing a downward trend, with demand in Southeast Asia lagging while the U.S. sees a 20% growth due to manufacturing reshoring [13] - Strong demand for mining and port machinery is noted in South America and the Middle East, driven by high copper prices and new port constructions [14] - Companies are optimistic about Q4 2025, with about two-thirds expecting year-on-year order growth, particularly in the U.S. consumer electronics, data center construction, and light communication sectors [15] - The competitive environment is leading to a general decline in export prices for ordinary household appliances and daily necessities, particularly in the U.S. market [17] - The adjustment of the euro exchange rate has resulted in a 7% decrease in the price of automotive parts in the European market [18] - The structure of export orders is shifting, with most companies still focused on B2B sales, while C2C orders are primarily through cross-border e-commerce platforms [19] - The C2C online channel is growing rapidly, especially in the smart hardware and 3C electronics sectors, with annual growth rates reaching 20% [21] - U.S. tariff policies have led to a noticeable decline in overall orders since April, with significant impacts on industries like tires, photovoltaics, and automotive [22] - Overall, the survey reflects a marginal increase in growth, rising export prices, and rapid growth in C2C online channels, despite ongoing tariff challenges [23]

Japan's exports fell for a fourth straight month in August, government data showed on Wednesday, as elevated U.S. tariffs took a deeper toll on the country's automotive and other manufacturing sectors... ...

Geopolitical Conflicts - The escalation of the Middle East conflict led to a 1.8% increase in Brent crude oil prices, despite concerns over oversupply and weak demand[4] - Israel's airstrike on Qatar was described as a "precision strike" against Hamas leaders, with potential implications for U.S.-Qatar relations[10] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict saw Poland shoot down a drone allegedly from Russia, raising tensions in the region[15] U.S.-China Trade Relations - The fourth round of U.S.-China trade talks is scheduled from September 14-17 in Spain, focusing on unilateral tariffs and export controls[17] - The U.S. Commerce Department added several Chinese entities to the export control "entity list," indicating ongoing trade tensions[17] - Trump's administration is pressuring the EU and NATO to impose significant tariffs (50-100%) on Russian oil buyers, contingent on their cooperation[16] Economic Indicators - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.5% this week, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 2.6%[6] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a 1.0% increase, and the S&P 500 rose by 1.6%[6] - Brent crude oil is currently priced at $66.88 per barrel, reflecting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine[6] Federal Reserve and Tariff Issues - The U.S. Supreme Court will expedite the review of the legality of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, with oral arguments scheduled for early November[22] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny, with a court ruling temporarily blocking the dismissal of a Fed official[22] - Ongoing investigations into tariffs on various sectors, including pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, are expected to influence future trade negotiations[22]

Core Insights - Chinese exporters appear to have strong bargaining power in trade with the U.S., bearing only 9% of the costs from tariffs imposed by President Trump earlier this year [1] - The findings contradict statements from U.S. officials who claimed that Washington emerged victorious in the global tariff storm in April [1] - The analysis indicates that U.S. importers are unable to fully pass on costs to end consumers or exporters, leading them to compress profit margins [1] Group 1 - The study aimed to verify the hypothesis that exporters can alleviate tariff burdens through price reductions, using regression analysis to compare shipping volumes, tariff rates, and changes in U.S. import prices [1] - From April to July, the average price of goods imported from China decreased by 2.4%, while actual tariffs increased by 27 percentage points [1] - This suggests that Chinese goods possess strong competitive advantages and bargaining power [1] Group 2 - ASEAN, Japan, and the EU bear a significantly larger share of tariff costs, with ASEAN and Japan expected to shoulder 20% and 37% respectively [2] - The 9% tariff rate for Chinese exporters is much lower than the 66% rate proposed by some U.S. retail giants to their Chinese suppliers, indicating that Chinese firms have managed to limit their tariff burden [2] - Looking ahead, the tariff costs are expected to gradually impact U.S. consumer inflation, with a potential CPI increase of about 1 percentage point if actual rates remain between 16% and 17% [2]

Core Viewpoint - European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde stated that increased U.S. tariffs will not undermine the recovering Eurozone economy, which is gradually returning to potential growth despite current economic challenges [1][2] Group 1: Economic Impact - Lagarde mentioned that higher tariffs will have only a "slight" impact on GDP, indicating resilience in the Eurozone's economic fundamentals such as consumption and investment [1] - The Eurozone unexpectedly achieved growth in the second quarter, with private sector activity expanding at the fastest pace in 15 months in August, signaling a recovery from three years of manufacturing downturn [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to maintain interest rates unchanged in the upcoming month, following a previous decision to keep rates steady in July [1] - Joachim Nagel, President of the German Central Bank, noted that the threshold for further action is high after eight previous rate cuts [1] Group 3: Inflation Control - Stronger growth momentum is expected to help keep inflation within the ECB's medium-term target of 2% [2] - Lagarde emphasized that the latest inflation data and medium-term forecasts align with the 2% target, and the impact of the recent trade agreement on inflation is anticipated to be "very slight" [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported disappointing Q2 2025 results, with net sales of $865 million, a year-on-year decline of 5.8% at constant exchange rates, and adjusted EBITDA of $141 million, reflecting a decrease in EBITDA margin from 19.0% to 16.3% [1] Performance Summary - Q2 2025 net sales were $865 million, down 5.8% year-on-year at constant exchange rates; adjusted EBITDA was $141 million, with an EBITDA margin of 16.3% compared to 19.0% in the same period last year [1] - Adjusted net profit for Q2 2025 was $71.4 million, down from $86.9 million in the previous year [1] - The company's performance was below expectations, primarily due to weaker results in Asia and North America [1] Development Trends - Management indicated that from 2021 to 2023, the company experienced significant sales growth with a compound annual growth rate of 37%, outperforming the industry average growth rate of 4.5% [1] - Sales performance is expected to normalize in 2024 and 2025, with long-term global passenger travel growth projected at approximately 4% from 2024 to 2029 [1] - For Q3 2025, sales performance is anticipated to be similar to Q2 2025, with a low single-digit decline expected [2] Sales Outlook - Management expects slight improvement in sales for the second half of the year compared to the first half, driven by base effect, improved consumer sentiment, and clearer U.S. tariff outlook [2] - Non-travel product penetration increased, with sales accounting for 36.2% of total sales, up from 34.4% in the same period last year [2] - The lifestyle and outdoor brand Gregory, which has a sales contribution of less than 3%, saw a 14.7% year-on-year sales increase in the first half of the year at constant exchange rates [2] Profit Margin Outlook - The company anticipates a gross margin between 59% and 59.5% for 2025, impacted by U.S. tariffs on imports from major production countries [2] - To mitigate margin pressure, the company plans to utilize inventory purchased in the first half of 2025 and implement price increases in the second half of 2025 [2] - The decline in high-margin sales from Asia has further pressured gross margins, although this was partially offset by an increase in direct sales proportion from 38% to 40% year-on-year [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Due to weaker sales momentum and unfavorable operating leverage, the company has lowered its revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 3% to $3.42 billion and $3.65 billion, respectively [2] - Net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been reduced by 17% and 9% to $271 million and $316 million, respectively [2] - Despite the adjustments, the company maintains a strong market leadership position, with a target price of HKD 20, reflecting a 21% upside potential from the current stock price [2]