Core Viewpoint - The improvement in free cash flow is driving an increase in the intrinsic value of companies, particularly in a low bond yield environment, which enhances the attractiveness of high-quality companies [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - The cash flow ETF (159399) rose over 2.4% during trading, reflecting the positive market sentiment towards companies with improved free cash flow [1]. - The half-year reports are expected to reinforce the revaluation logic of A-shares, with sectors such as essential consumer goods (home appliances, household items, cosmetics) and TMT (consumer electronics, communication equipment) showing stable growth or marginal improvement [1]. Group 2: ETF and Index Details - The cash flow ETF tracks the FTSE China A-Share Free Cash Flow Focus Index (888888), which selects listed companies with stable free cash flow characteristics from the A-share market [1]. - The index emphasizes value investment by focusing on companies with healthy financial structures and abundant cash flow, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies with long-term growth potential [1]. - Investors without stock accounts can consider the GTFTSE China A-Share Free Cash Flow Focus ETF Initiated Link A (023919) and Link C (023920) [1].

机构：东吴证券 研究员：袁理/陈孜文 投资要点 事件：2025H1 公司实现主营业务收入143.04 亿港元，同比-8%，归母净利润22.07 亿港元，同比-10%。 2025H1 建造收入占比降至13%，危废减值&汇兑亏损致业绩承压。公司运营项目积累、经营提质增 效、财务费用节约共助经营性利润增长，归母净利润下滑主要受非现金性的建造收入下降、减值增加及 汇兑亏损等影响：1）建造下滑：2025H1 公司建造收入18.44 亿港元（同比-49%，下同），占主营收入 12.9%（-10.1pct），运营收入99.43 亿港元（+5%），占主营收入69.5%（+8.9pct），财务收入25.16 亿 港元（-2%），占主营收入17.6%（+1.1pct），盈利结构进一步优化。2）减值增加：25H1 应收账款、 其他应收款及合约资产减值计提2.08 亿港元（24H1 为0.34 亿港元），25H1 商誉、物业厂房及设备减值 1.78 亿港元（24H1 无）。3）汇兑亏损：25H1 汇兑亏损4.28 亿港元，24H1 汇兑收益为2.31 亿港元。 运营指标稳健增长，供热量同增32%。分板块看，①环保能源：25H1环保能 ...

Group 1 - The three major indices opened higher on August 25, with the National Index of Free Cash Flow rising significantly, driven by strong performances from component stocks such as Yaxiang and Luoyang Molybdenum, which increased by over 7% [1] - The largest free cash flow ETF (159201) followed the index's upward trend, rising approximately 1.25% with a trading volume exceeding 180 million yuan and a turnover rate of over 4.2%, indicating active trading and frequent premium transactions [1] - The free cash flow ETF (159201) has a current scale of 4.142 billion yuan and has seen a net inflow of over 291 million yuan in the past five days, reflecting strong investor interest [1] Group 2 - The free cash flow ETF (159201) focuses on industry leaders with abundant free cash flow, covering sectors such as home appliances, automotive, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, and oil and petrochemicals, which helps mitigate risks associated with single industry volatility [2] - The fund management annual fee rate is 0.15%, and the custody annual fee rate is 0.05%, both of which are among the lowest in the market [2] Group 3 - According to Industrial Securities, the current market is experiencing a "healthy bull" phase, characterized by continuous innovation highs led by the technology growth sector, indicating that the market is not overheated overall [1] - The market shows a "blooming" trend with opportunities rotating across various industries and themes, suggesting that despite significant upward movements, the overall pressure from crowding is relatively low, enhancing the sustainability of the market [1]

Core Insights - The Zhongzheng All Index Free Cash Flow Index (932365) has shown a strong increase of 1.84%, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as Mona Lisa (002918) up by 10.03% and Yaxiang Integration (603929) up by 10.01% [2] - The Free Cash Flow ETF Fund (159233) has also risen by 1.99%, marking its fourth consecutive increase, with a latest price of 1.13 yuan [2] - Over the past week, the Free Cash Flow ETF Fund has accumulated a rise of 1.19% as of August 22, 2025 [2] Performance Metrics - The Free Cash Flow ETF Fund has a turnover rate of 4.14% during the trading session, with a transaction volume of 3.92 million yuan [2] - The average daily transaction volume over the past year for the Free Cash Flow ETF Fund is 25.03 million yuan [2] - Since its inception, the fund's highest monthly return has been 4.04%, with a maximum consecutive monthly increase of 4.42% [2] Drawdown and Recovery - The maximum drawdown for the Free Cash Flow ETF Fund since inception is 3.28%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.21% [3] - The recovery time after drawdown is 12 days, indicating a relatively quick recovery compared to comparable funds [3] Fee Structure - The management fee for the Free Cash Flow ETF Fund is 0.50%, while the custody fee is 0.10% [3] Tracking Precision - As of August 22, 2025, the tracking error for the Free Cash Flow ETF Fund year-to-date is 0.168% [3] - The fund closely tracks the Zhongzheng All Index Free Cash Flow Index, which selects 100 listed companies with high free cash flow rates to reflect the overall performance of companies with strong cash flow generation capabilities [3] Top Holdings - As of July 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Zhongzheng All Index Free Cash Flow Index include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (600938), COSCO Shipping Holdings (601919), and Wuliangye Yibin (000858), collectively accounting for 57.53% of the index [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the National Index of Free Cash Flow has shown strong performance, with a notable increase of 1.4% as of August 25, 2025, and significant gains in constituent stocks such as Yaxiang Integration and Luoyang Molybdenum [3] - The Free Cash Flow ETF (159201) has risen by 1.08%, with a latest price of 1.13 yuan, and has achieved a cumulative increase of 1.73% over the past week, ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The Free Cash Flow ETF has seen a net inflow of 291 million yuan over the past five days, with a total share increase of 20.9 million shares, also leading among comparable funds [3] Group 2 - As of August 22, 2025, the Free Cash Flow ETF has the highest tracking accuracy among comparable funds, with a tracking error of only 0.039% over the past month [4] - The top ten weighted stocks in the National Index of Free Cash Flow as of July 31, 2025, include SAIC Motor, China National Offshore Oil, Midea Group, and Gree Electric, collectively accounting for 57.66% of the index [4] - The latest financing buy-in amount for the Free Cash Flow ETF is 7.36 million yuan, with a financing balance of 42.43 million yuan, indicating ongoing leverage investment [3]

Core Viewpoint - The three major telecom operators in China reported a year-on-year net profit growth of over 5% for the first half of 2025, despite stable revenue levels, leading to media headlines emphasizing their profitability. However, the decline in free cash flow raises concerns about their actual cash-generating capabilities [1][9]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The telecom operators' free cash flow has shown a downward trend over the past three years, with China Mobile reporting a free cash flow of 25.5 billion, a 62% decrease year-on-year, while China Telecom and China Unicom also experienced significant declines compared to 2023 [6][8]. - Despite the net profit growth, the decline in free cash flow indicates a weakening ability to distribute dividends or reinvest, reflecting the true financial health of these operators [9]. Group 2: Capital Expenditure Trends - Following a peak in 5G investments from 2020 to 2023, the three operators have begun to reduce capital expenditures, with China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom decreasing their capital expenditures by 9%, 28%, and 15% respectively in the first half of 2025 [12]. - The reduction in capital expenditures positively impacted free cash flow for China Telecom and China Unicom, which saw slight increases in free cash flow due to this decrease [12]. Group 3: Operating Cash Flow Analysis - The operating cash flow for the three operators declined significantly, with China Mobile's operating cash flow net amount halving compared to the same period in 2023, while China Telecom and China Unicom also reported decreases of 19% and 3% respectively [14]. - The primary reasons for the decline in operating cash flow include increased payments to suppliers and a rise in accounts receivable due to slower collection from government enterprise projects [16][21]. Group 4: Accounts Receivable and Bad Debt Provisions - Accounts receivable for the three operators increased significantly, with China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom reporting year-on-year increases of 25%, 26%, and 19% respectively [22]. - The rise in accounts receivable has led to a substantial increase in bad debt provisions, with China Mobile and China Telecom seeing provisions grow by 33% and 59% respectively in 2025 [28][30]. Group 5: Strategic Implications - The operators need to shift focus from merely increasing revenue to ensuring cash flow generation, particularly in the government enterprise market, to avoid a cycle of "paper profits" without actual cash [36]. - A return to high-quality development is essential for the operators to maintain competitiveness and ensure that enterprise business becomes a growth engine rather than a cash drain [35][36].

Group 1 - The cash flow index has shown weak performance since 2025, primarily due to the profit fluctuations in the coal and petrochemical industries leading to valuation adjustments [13][16][36] - Value strategies should not only focus on the level of ROE but also on the stability of ROE to enhance returns and avoid volatility caused by declining performance [13][24] - The Huachuang strategy's free cash flow combination has achieved a cumulative return of 31% from April 2024 to August 2025, outperforming benchmarks such as the CSI 300 and the national cash flow index [10][13][31] Group 2 - The cash flow index has underperformed relative to the dividend index mainly due to the absence of bank sector contributions, which has been a significant drag on returns [36][37] - The cash flow index tends to favor large-cap stocks due to its weighting methodology, which contrasts with the dividend index that benefits more from small-cap stocks during favorable market conditions [37][38] - Expectations of a return to inflation could lead to the cash flow index outperforming both the dividend index and the broader market, as historical patterns suggest that cash flow indices have performed well during periods of inflation recovery [38][39]

证券研究报 告 【策略专题】 现金流指数为何今年偏弱，往后会强吗？ ——自由现金流资产系列 13 现金流相对红利：大盘风格显著，小盘占优行情下相对收益承压。由于基于 自由现金流规模被赋予的权重较红利指数的股息率加权更大，故现金流指数 大盘风格显著更强。 宏观经济不及预期；宏观及行业政策、监管环境发生重大变化，使得行业发 展逻辑根本性改变；历史经验不代表未来。 策略研究 策略专题 2025 年 08 月 22 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：姚佩 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522120004 证券分析师：林昊 邮箱：linhao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523070007 相关研究报告 图表目录 | 图表 | 1 煤炭&石化 23、24 年估值驱动行情，25Q1 估值盈利双双承压 | 4 | | --- | --- | --- | | 图表 | 2 煤炭盈利下滑带动现金流规模收缩持续两年有余 | 4 | | 图表 | 3 石油石化盈利规模小幅收缩 | 4 | | 图表 | 4 盈利能力的低波特征同样能带来收益增强 | 5 | | 图表 | 5 华创自由现金流组合 ...

Core Insights - The Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index has increased by 0.05%, with leading stocks including Anfu Technology, Xuefeng Technology, Huashu Media, Mould Technology, and Nanjing Xinbai [3] - The Free Cash Flow ETF (159201) has shown a 2.79% increase over the past week, ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The Free Cash Flow ETF has seen a net inflow of 239 million yuan over the last four days, with a total share increase of 21.8 million shares, also ranking first among comparable funds [3] Performance Metrics - As of August 21, the Free Cash Flow ETF has achieved a net value increase of 10.40% over the past six months [4] - The ETF's highest single-month return since inception is 3.62%, with a maximum consecutive monthly gain of 9.05% [4] - The ETF has a historical six-month profit probability of 100% and an average monthly return of 2.58% [4] Tracking and Holdings - The tracking error of the Free Cash Flow ETF over the past month is 0.039%, the highest precision among comparable funds [4] - As of July 31, the top ten weighted stocks in the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index account for 57.66% of the index, including SAIC Motor, China National Offshore Oil, Midea Group, and Gree Electric [4][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for WuXi Biologics (2269 HK) with a target price of HKD 34.00, indicating a potential upside of 11.0% from the current closing price of HKD 30.62 [1][12]. Core Insights - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 (1H25) shows a continued recovery trend, with a strong order intake of 86 new contracts, marking a historical high for the first half of the year. However, there are concerns regarding the impact of changes in overseas financing and market dynamics on early-stage clinical projects, leading to a decrease in revenue from this segment [2][6]. - The management has raised the full-year revenue growth guidance to a range of 14-16%, up from the previous 12-15%, while maintaining a positive free cash flow outlook [6][7]. - The report highlights that the long-term growth drivers for the company remain strong, particularly through its proprietary technologies and the increasing number of projects in hand, which have grown by 10% compared to the end of 2024 [6][7]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2025 is projected at RMB 21,312 million, with a growth forecast of 16% for 1H25 compared to the previous period. The gross profit is expected to reach RMB 9,157 million, reflecting a gross margin of 43.0% [5][13]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is estimated at RMB 5,005 million, with a net profit margin of 23.5% [5][13]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately HKD 124.64 billion, with a year-to-date stock price increase of 74.37% [4][12]. Order and Project Insights - In 1H25, the company secured 86 new comprehensive projects, with over 70% being dual/multi-antibody and ADC projects. The report notes that the number of M-end projects has increased to 24, with expectations to complete 25 PPQ projects in 2025 [6][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of proprietary technology in generating future revenue streams, including collaboration income and sales commissions [6][7]. Market and Regional Performance - Revenue growth in North America was 20%, while the Chinese mainland saw an 8.5% decline due to financing environment impacts. Japan and South Korea showed strong performance, indicating potential for further growth in these regions [6][7].