2026年开年之际，全球的目光几乎都集中在美国总统特朗普身上。从对委内瑞拉的军事打击，到威胁要霸占格陵兰，再到伊朗局势的紧张升温，大家不禁开 始疑惑，特朗普下一个目标会是谁？这种不确定性令许多中小国家感到不安。然而，俄罗斯战略研究所的防御政策专家格里戈里·季先科指出，无论美国如 何折腾，它只敢对那些弱小、没有核武的国家采取武力，绝不会与中国发生直接的军事冲突，最多也只能在经济上对中国施压，但并不会真正爆发军事对 抗。2026年1月，俄罗斯卫星通讯社也发布了相似的观点，认为中美之间不会重演2025年那场激烈的经济冲突，美国短期内不会全面与中国对抗，这背后是 对中国实力的深深忌惮。 那么，为什么美国还会公然挑起关税战，甚至对台军售，去年年底还扣押中国籍油轮呢？大家不要忘记，特朗普有两个显而易见的特点：商人和爱面子。特 朗普并不是没有尝试过和中国较量，2025年的关税战就是其中一例。当时，美国大力施行制裁，试图通过加税迫使中国做出让步。但结果却是中国反制措施 精准打击了美国农业和制造业的要害，中西部的农场主纷纷表示不满，华尔街的投资大佬也频频向白宫施压。最终，这场贸易战导致美国的通货膨胀一度突 破了6%，美国民众发 ...

直新闻：中国出手了，外交部26日宣布对美方20家企业及10名高管宣布制裁，张先生，你对此怎么看？ 特约评论员 张思南：这次军售，实质上是向台海两岸同时发出的一个信号。无论中美关系如何起伏，美国都会持续介入台湾问题，并将其作为长期战略 筹码。 正如部分美国学者所指出的那样，此次军售宣布的时机，恰恰选在中美关系呈现某种"暂时稳态"的窗口期。特朗普显然认为，在这一节点打"台湾牌"既可 以施压中国，又不至于立刻引发正面摊牌，从而在经济合作与军事博弈之间反复横跳，攫取最大地缘政治筹码。 但这种做法，注定是一场危险的豪赌。更值得警惕的是，特朗普虽然在口头上并未公开否定"一中"政策，但通过超常规地加码军售，他正在实质性掏空美 国在台湾问题上的"战略模糊性"。这正是特朗普打"台湾牌"的新套路：嘴上维持模糊，表面上不越红线，行动上却持续"切香肠"，不断抬高与台湾的实质 关系与军事协作水平。 这种策略，既无法带来真正的安全，也不会换来稳定的秩序，只会不断累积风险、放大误判。 我们也看到，就在军售案公布后不久，中方迅速启动了成体系、可预期、且明显升级的反制组合。对20家参与对台售武的美国军工企业及10名高级管理人 员实施最新反制措 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is the criticism of Taiwan's leadership, particularly Lai Ching-te and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), for their perceived alignment with Japan's right-wing figures and their failure to uphold national dignity, which has led to public backlash in Taiwan [1][2][3] - Lai Ching-te and DPP officials have been accused of using the situation to promote pro-Japan sentiments, including encouraging tourism to Japan and promoting "Taiwan-Japan friendship," which many view as a betrayal of Taiwan's historical context and national interests [1][2] - Various Taiwanese organizations and political figures have expressed strong opposition to the DPP's stance, emphasizing the historical grievances against Japan and calling for a rejection of any military involvement from Japan in Taiwan's affairs [1][2][3] Group 2 - The criticism extends to the handling of food safety issues related to the lifting of bans on food imports from Fukushima, which is seen as politically motivated and detrimental to the health of Taiwanese citizens [1] - The articles highlight the historical context of Japan's colonial rule over Taiwan, with calls for the DPP to acknowledge this history and refrain from actions that could be interpreted as supporting Japanese militarism [2][3] - The sentiment among critics is that the DPP's actions are not only politically motivated but also risk escalating tensions in the Taiwan Strait, potentially leading to a more dangerous regional situation [2][3]

Group 1 - The U.S. is committed to maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and opposes any unilateral changes to the status quo by either side [2][4] - The U.S. supports dialogue between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait and hopes that differences can be resolved peacefully without threats [2] - The U.S. continues to provide arms to Taiwan to support its self-defense capabilities, in accordance with the Taiwan Relations Act [4]

Group 1 - German Foreign Minister Baerbock's planned visit to China has been postponed due to insufficient meetings arranged in China, which highlights the importance of China in trade and international affairs [1] - The visit was originally scheduled to start on the 26th and was intended to address export control issues related to rare earths and semiconductors, emphasizing the need for stable and reliable global trade relations [1] - Baerbock expressed that Germany aims to maintain close economic ties with China, stating that "decoupling" is not the correct strategy [1] Group 2 - Baerbock reiterated Germany's commitment to the One China policy while emphasizing that Germany will decide its policy implementation independently and does not support the use of force to change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait [2] - China's Foreign Ministry responded by stating that the greatest threat to peace in the Taiwan Strait is "Taiwan independence" and external forces supporting it, urging Germany to uphold the One China principle [2] - A commentary from German media suggested that Baerbock should adopt a more curious and learning-oriented approach towards China, rather than a punitive one, which could benefit Germany's export sector [2]