买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 143,842 | 135,910 | 138,481 | 142,664 | 150,962 | | 同比（%） | (6.70) | (5.51) | 1.89 | 3.02 | 5.82 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 7,091 | 4,493 | 5,147 | 5,522 | 6,322 | | 同比（%） | 21.34 | (36.64) | 14.56 | 7.29 | 14.48 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 2.29 | 1.45 | 1.66 | 1.78 | 2.04 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 8.53 | 13.45 | 11.75 | 10.95 | 9.56 | [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] ◼ 风险提示：经济复苏不及预期、安全经营风险，汇率波动 2025 年 11 月 02 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its Q3 2025 results, showing a revenue increase but a decline in net profit for the quarter, while the overall market for electrolyte and lithium hexafluorophosphate is experiencing a rebound after a period of low prices [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 6.616 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.75%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 748 million yuan, up 6.64% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported total revenue of 2.368 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.60%, but a net profit attributable to shareholders of 264 million yuan, down 7.51% year-on-year [1]. Market Dynamics - The average market price of electrolytes in the first three quarters of 2025 was 18,700 yuan per ton, a decrease of 7.9% year-on-year, leading to pressure on the company's profitability [1]. - Since Q3 2025, the lithium hexafluorophosphate price has increased from 55,000 yuan per ton on September 14 to 103,500 yuan per ton, an increase of 88.18% [1]. - The average market price of electrolytes has risen from a low of 17,500 yuan per ton to 26,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a 48.57% increase [2]. Production Capacity and Strategy - The company has a significant integrated advantage, with its subsidiary Shilei having an annual production capacity of 24,000 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate, which is expected to increase to 36,000 tons by the end of 2025 after technical upgrades [2]. - The company is expanding its production capacity for fluorinated liquids, with a current capacity of 3,000 tons for hydrogen fluoride ether and 2,500 tons for perfluoropolyether, to meet increasing customer demand [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.149 billion yuan, 1.483 billion yuan, and 1.795 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 31X, 24X, and 20X respectively [4]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic electrolyte industry, with significant growth potential in organic fluorochemicals and semiconductor chemicals [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of CNY 2,937.98 billion in 2024, a decrease of 2.48% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to rise by 2.02% to CNY 164.68 billion [2][6]. - The company has demonstrated significant performance in oil and gas production, with an equivalent production of 1,797.4 million barrels, an increase of 2.2% year-on-year, despite a decline in oil prices [6]. - The company plans to distribute approximately CNY 86 billion in dividends for 2024, marking a historical high for the same period [6]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a net profit of CNY 164.68 billion for 2024, with a non-recurring net profit of CNY 173.29 billion, reflecting a 7.50% decrease year-on-year [2][6]. - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a single-quarter revenue of CNY 681.70 billion, down 6.7% year-on-year, while the net profit for the quarter increased by 8.05% to CNY 32.16 billion [2][6]. - The average price of Brent crude oil was USD 80.76 per barrel in 2024, a decrease of 2.3% year-on-year, while the company's realized oil price was USD 74.70 per barrel, down 2.5% [6]. Business Segment Performance - The oil and gas segment saw a significant increase in operating profit, reaching CNY 159.75 billion, up 7.1% year-on-year, despite fluctuations in international oil prices [6]. - The refining segment experienced a decline in operating profit to CNY 18.23 billion, down 49.7% year-on-year, due to reduced margins and lower production volumes [6]. - The natural gas sales business reported a 25.5% increase in operating profit to CNY 54.01 billion, driven by increased sales volume and reduced procurement costs [6].