国信证券主要观点如下： 一季度主流制冷剂长协价格持续上涨 智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，2026年二代制冷剂履约削减，三代制冷剂配额制度延续， R32、R134a、R125等品种行业集中度高;三代制冷剂品种间转化比例同比增长，企业生产调配灵活性提 升，预计2026年主流三代制冷剂将保持供需紧平衡。该行认为，制冷剂配额约束收紧为长期趋势方向， 在此背景下，该行看好R32、R134a、R125等主流制冷剂景气度将延续，价格长期仍有较大上行空间;对 应制冷剂配额龙头企业有望保持长期高盈利水平。此外看好液冷产业对氟化液与制冷剂需求的提升。建 议关注PVDF价格修复。建议关注产业链完整、基础设施配套齐全、制冷剂配额领先以及工艺技术先进 的氟化工龙头企业及上游资源龙头。 液冷带动上游氟化液与制冷剂需求提升 随着AI技术发展，服务器功率密度大幅提升，传统风冷散热方式已达瓶颈，液冷技术可有效降低数据 中心PUE，其中浸没式及双相冷板式液冷成为未来趋势，带动上游氟化液及制冷剂需求快速增长，全氟 聚醚、氢氟醚、全氟胺、六氟丙烯低聚体均各具优势，建议关注巨化股份、三美股份、东岳集团等。 关注PVDF在成本上涨、供需改善背 ...

内销排产方面，据产业在线，2026年1月排产786万台，同比+8.9%；2月排产648万台，同比-12.0%；3 月排产1220万台，同比-4.5%。出口排产方面，2026年1月出口排产1065万台，同比+1.2%；2月排产839 万台，同比-11.0%；3月出口排产1205万台，同比+4.2%。 液冷带动上游氟化液与制冷剂需求提升。随着AI技术发展，服务器功率密度大幅提升，传统风冷散热 方式已达瓶颈，液冷技术可有效降低数据中心PUE，其中浸没式及双相冷板式液冷成为未来趋势，带动 上游氟化液及制冷剂需求快速增长，全氟聚醚、氢氟醚、全氟胺、六氟丙烯低聚体均各具优势，建议关 注巨化股份（600160）、三美股份（603379）、东岳集团等。 国信证券近日发布氟化工行业2025年12月月度观察：12月氟化工行情回顾：截至12月末(12月31日)，上 证综指报3968.84点，较11月末(11月28日)上涨2.06%；沪深300指数报4629.94点，较11月末上涨2.28%； 申万化工指数报4372.39，较11月末上涨4.43%；氟化工指数报2018.62点，较11月末上涨1.89%。12月氟 化工行业指数跑输申 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月08日 氟化工行业：2025 年 12 月月度观察 优于大市 一季度制冷剂长协价格落地，关注 PVDF 价格持续修复 12 月氟化工行情回顾：截至 12 月末（12 月 31 日），上证综指报 3968.84 点， 较 11 月末（11 月 28 日）上涨 2.06%；沪深 300 指数报 4629.94 点，较 11 月末上涨 2.28%；申万化工指数报 4372.39，较 11 月末上涨 4.43%；氟化工 指数报 2018.62 点，较 11 月末上涨 1.89%。12 月氟化工行业指数跑输申万 化工指数 2.54pct,跑输沪深 300 指数 0.39pct，跑输上证综指 0.17pct。 一季度主流制冷剂长协价格持续上涨。展望一季度，伴随一季度长协价格确 定，终端空调企业长协订单执行稳定：据卓创资讯，R32 长协价格将在 61200 元/吨（承兑），环比 2025 年四季度价格上涨 1000 元/吨，涨幅 1.66%；R410A 长协价格在 55100 元/吨（承兑），环比 2025 年四季度上涨 1900 元/吨，涨 幅 3.57%。预计往后一周 R32 价格区间 ...

兴业证券认为，1)液冷确保高功耗电子部件正常工作，算力卡功耗提升趋势下液冷渗透加速。随着AI算 力卡功耗的持续攀升，高功率机柜的散热需求已触及传统风冷物理极限，直接液冷的散热效果有明显提 升，且更经济环保。北美缺电背景下，液冷可降低数据中心机房温控设备的耗电量及服务器内风扇的功 耗，从而显著节省用电量。2)液冷订单落地验证景气度，国内厂商有望凭借"速度与产能"抢占全球份 额。面对未来几年迅猛增长的液冷需求，部分海外厂商扩产意愿相对保守，这为具备强劲竞争力的国内 新进入者打开了缺口。国内公司具备产能优势(扩产积极、龙头公司已海外大规模扩产)、较强的成本和 技术优势、更快的响应速度，有望填补海外供给缺口，长期看将在全球液冷市场中占据重要份额。 华金证券认为，1)AI发展带来功耗问题，液冷方案逐渐明朗。在算力需求强力驱动下，数据中心等各种 服务器数量大幅增加，所带来功耗问题日益凸显。液冷具有散热效率高、降温快、无振动、噪音小等特 点，面对高功耗高密度场景，传统风冷已无法满足能耗和散热需求，液冷成为智算中心温控解决方案必 选项。2)数据中心(服务器)、机器人、光伏储能等新兴产业快速兴起，为液冷市场拓展新的发展机遇。 ...

伴随储能等下游需求爆发，推动锂电产业链进入景气阶段，自25 年10 月起，六氟磷酸锂价格飙升，截 至12 月29 日六氟磷酸锂价格已达到约18 万元/吨，与10 月1 日相比价格涨幅高达195%。公司六氟磷酸 锂产能2.4 万吨/年，预计25 年底技改完成后产能可达3.6 万吨/年，且存在10%-20%的产能弹性空间，受 益于价格上行。 六氟涨价逐步向下游电解液传导，截至12 月29 日电解液价格为约2.6 万元/吨，同期涨幅亦达到约 64%。随着六氟磷酸锂价格抬升，公司将持续受益。 氟化液赛道长坡厚雪，竞争力凸显 六氟及电解液价格上行，盈利进入上行通道 伴随3M 退出，公司迎来国产替代良机，叠加数据中心液冷及半导体等下游行业的增量需求，国内氟化 液市场增长正步入国产替代+需求扩张的双重驱动阶段。公司已建成氢氟醚3000 吨/年、全氟聚醚2500 吨/年产能，此外年产3 万吨高端氟精细化学品项目正稳步推进。 公司有望深度受益于氟化液国产替代及行业扩容机会，随着中长期产能逐步释放，打开天花板。 深化布局新型材料，拓展成长空间 公司前瞻性布局固态电池电解质，公司参股的新源邦已实现氧化物电解质量产，硫化物及聚合物电 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7] Core Insights - The company is benefiting from the price elasticity of hexafluorophosphate lithium, which has surged by 195% since October 1, 2025, reaching approximately 180,000 yuan/ton by December 29, 2025. This price increase is expected to positively impact the company's profitability as it has a production capacity of 24,000 tons/year, which is projected to increase to 36,000 tons/year by the end of 2025 [4] - The domestic fluorinated liquid market is entering a phase of dual drivers: domestic substitution and demand expansion, particularly following the exit of 3M. The company has established production capacities for hydrogen fluoride ether (3,000 tons/year) and perfluoropolyether (2,500 tons/year), with a high-end fluorochemical project of 30,000 tons/year underway [5] - The company is strategically expanding into new materials, particularly solid-state battery electrolytes, with its affiliate achieving mass production of oxide electrolytes. The acceleration of the solid-state battery industrialization process is expected to open new growth avenues for the company's battery materials business [6] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.2 billion yuan, 1.5 billion yuan, and 1.9 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.57 yuan, 2.06 yuan, and 2.55 yuan for the same years, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 33, 25, and 20 times [7][9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the increasing demand for computing power is leading to significant power consumption issues in data centers, making liquid cooling a necessary solution for temperature control in high-density environments [1][2]. - The Chinese liquid cooling server market is projected to reach $2.37 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 67.0%, and is expected to grow to $3.39 billion by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 46.8% from 2024 to 2029, ultimately reaching $16.2 billion by 2029 [2]. - Liquid cooling solutions are becoming essential in various sectors, including AI computing, internet, finance, energy, transportation, and industrial manufacturing, as traditional air cooling cannot meet the energy and heat dissipation requirements [1][2]. Group 2 - Liquid cooling working fluids are diverse, with glycol, propylene glycol, and water being predominant in plate cooling, while immersion cooling utilizes oils, silicates, and fluorinated liquids, which are critical components for cooling performance [3]. - Fluorinated liquids are gaining traction due to their surface tension, insulation properties, and material compatibility, making them indispensable in high-power density AI server applications [3]. - The exit of 3M from the market presents growth opportunities for domestic companies in the high-performance fluorinated liquid sector, while oils and silicates are also potential supplementary choices for cooling fluids [3]. Group 3 - Investment recommendations include companies involved in liquid cooling fluids such as Dongyangguang, Xinzoubang, Runhe Materials, Juhua Co., Yonghe Co., Wuhua Technology, Jinshi Resources, Dongyue Group, Yongtai Technology, Huayi Group, Sanmei Co., Unity Co., Bayi Space, Changlan Technology, Xin'an Co., and Jitai Co. [4].

证券研究报告 基础化工/行业深度报告 领先大市（维持） AI发展加速液冷渗透率,液冷工质打开成长空间 分析师：骆红永 S0910523100001 2025年12月29日 本报告仅供华金证券客户中的专业投资者参考 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 核心观点 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 2 u AI发展带来功耗问题，液冷方案逐渐明朗。在算力需求强力驱动下，数据中心等各种服务器数量大幅增加，所带来功耗问题 日益凸显。液冷具有散热效率高、降温快、无振动、噪音小等特点，面对高功耗高密度场景，传统风冷已无法满足能耗和散 热需求，液冷成为智算中心温控解决方案必选项，广泛用于AI算力、电子终端、互联网、金融、能源交通、工业制造等领域。 数据中心（服务器）、机器人、光伏储能等新兴产业快速兴起，为液冷市场拓展新的发展机遇。2024年中国液冷服务器市场 规模达到23.7亿美元，同比增长67.0%，2025年有望达到33.9亿美元，预计2024-2029年，中国液冷服务器市场复合增长率将 达到46.8%，2029年市场规模将达到162亿美元。液冷工质也随着液冷市场需求爆发而快速增长。 u 液冷工质多种选择，氟化液前景 ...

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry in China is expected to end its downward cycle in 2026, presenting structural investment opportunities due to the recovery of downstream demand, the acceleration of domestic substitution, and the ongoing implementation of anti-involution policies [1][2]. Group 1: Traditional Chemical Sector Recovery - The core opportunity in the traditional chemical sector for 2026 arises from improved supply-demand dynamics driven by anti-involution policies, leading to a rational price recovery [2][18]. - The domestic production capacity of organic silicon has peaked, with major companies leading production cuts to stabilize prices, resulting in inventory levels dropping to a three-year low [2][4]. - PTA production capacity expansion is nearing completion, with a significant reduction in inventory levels, indicating a potential recovery in the polyester chain's profitability [4]. Group 2: Agricultural Chemicals and Price Recovery - The agricultural chemical sector is poised for growth as safety incidents have disrupted global pesticide supply chains, leading to a supply contraction that catalyzes price recovery [4][8]. - The price index for raw agricultural chemicals has shown signs of bottoming out, indicating a potential rebound in prices [4]. Group 3: Acceleration of Domestic Substitution in New Materials - The domestic substitution of chemical new materials is gaining momentum, driven by government support and technological advancements, becoming a key growth engine for the industry [9][10]. - The market for lubricating oil additives has seen a decrease in imports and an increase in exports, indicating a shift towards becoming a net exporter and enhancing domestic brands' market presence [10]. - The electronic chemicals sector is benefiting from the growth of AI and semiconductor industries, with domestic manufacturers achieving technological breakthroughs and entering major supply chains [14][17]. Group 4: Demand Recovery and Policy Support - Gradual recovery in downstream demand, particularly in the real estate and automotive sectors, is expected to support the chemical industry's growth [18][19]. - Government policies aimed at stabilizing growth and stimulating consumption are expected to bolster demand for chemical products, enhancing the industry's resilience [19]. - The implementation of anti-involution policies and regulations is expected to improve market competition and guide industry profitability back to reasonable levels [19]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Investment in the chemical industry should focus on three core areas: capitalizing on cyclical recovery opportunities in sectors like organic silicon and PTA, investing in high-growth areas such as bio-based materials and electronic chemicals, and targeting leading chemical companies with cost and scale advantages [20]. - The industry is at a critical juncture of cyclical reversal and structural upgrade, with both cyclical and growth opportunities present [20].

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is expected to end its downward cycle in 2026, presenting structural investment opportunities driven by anti-involution policies, accelerated domestic substitution, and gradually recovering downstream demand [4][19]. Group 1: Traditional Chemical Industry Opportunities - The core opportunity in the traditional chemical sector arises from improved supply-demand dynamics due to anti-involution policies, leading to a rational price recovery after years of capacity expansion [5][19]. - The domestic production capacity of organic silicon has peaked, with leading companies reducing output to stabilize prices, resulting in inventory levels dropping to a three-year low and prices showing signs of recovery [5][10]. - PTA production capacity expansion is nearing completion, with a significant reduction in inventory levels, indicating a potential recovery in the polyester chain's profitability [7][19]. Group 2: New Materials and Domestic Substitution - The domestic substitution of new chemical materials is accelerating, driven by government support and technological breakthroughs, becoming a core growth engine for the industry [11][12]. - The market for bio-based materials is expanding, supported by policies promoting green and low-carbon transitions, with domestic companies advancing in technology and production [12]. - The lubricating oil additive sector has seen a decrease in imports to 203,000 tons in 2023, while exports rose to 208,000 tons, indicating a shift towards becoming a net exporter [12]. Group 3: Downstream Demand Recovery - Gradual recovery in downstream demand is providing solid support for the chemical industry, with the real estate market expected to rebound, boosting demand for construction materials and coatings [19]. - The automotive sector is experiencing stable growth, with a 10.99% year-on-year increase in production in October 2025, further driving the demand for chemical materials [19]. - Policies aimed at stabilizing growth, including those targeting real estate and consumer spending, are expected to enhance downstream demand, while stricter energy and carbon emission regulations are leading to increased industry concentration [19][20]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Investment in the chemical industry in 2026 should focus on three core areas: capturing cyclical recovery opportunities from anti-involution, investing in high-growth sectors like bio-based materials and electronic chemicals, and identifying leading companies with cost and scale advantages [21][22]. - The industry is at a critical juncture of cyclical reversal and structural upgrade, with both cyclical and growth opportunities present [22].