证券研究报告 | 策略报告 gszqdatemark 2026 03 01 年 月 日 投资策略 3 月策略观点与金股推荐：布局"涨价"扩散，博弈政策催化 一、3 月市场观点：布局"涨价"扩散，博弈政策催化 二月以来，多重因素正在推动资金定价向"涨价"条线倾斜。其一，叙事层面，AI 科技革命的叙事定价逻辑开始向实物资产"外溢"；其二，供需层面，在逆全球化 的大背景下，地缘变数的增多进一步带动了各国的资源战略调整，致使生产端实 际供需偏紧的局面可能将在更多商品中陆续显现；其三，价格数据层面，无论是海 外还是国内，通胀数据呈现同步上行，产业链中的涨价环节也有所扩散；其四，资 金轮动视角下，尽管 AI 产业的长期趋势无虞，但融资扩张与资本回报的矛盾越久， 资金定价的分歧也将更易放大。每一次科技条线的颠簸，都难免引发资金分流，而 在非 AI 需求尚未确认转强之前，兼顾供给约束基础和需求改善预期的"涨价"条 线显然比其他方向更具吸引力，也更容易在资金轮动中受益。 大势层面，中期趋势向好，市场有望震荡再向上。中期维度，分子与分母共振向好 的期待没有改变。盈利层面，供需双向发力的政策路径明确，价格端修复的趋势延 续，上游向 ...

（来源：老张投研） 存储三巨头，大手笔建厂！ 据悉，美光计划投入2000亿美元扩产，其中包括建造一座占地450英亩的园区，园区内将落成两座先进 晶圆厂。 SK海力士则双管齐下，一边投资130亿元在首尔清州建造AI芯片封装厂，一边将龙仁晶圆厂试产时间从 5月提前至2-3月。 三星投产时间更是迅猛—平泽P4工厂投产时间从原定的2027年一季度提速至2026年四季度，投产后预 计月产能将达到10-12万片晶圆。 这场扩产狂潮背后，正是全球AI数据中心爆发带来的存储需求井喷。 数据显示，2025年全球DRAM/NAND Flash市场规模首次突破2000亿元，较去年增长32.7%。 存储巨头产能扩张，大多数人将目光聚焦在北方华创、中微公司等上游设备卖铲人以及江丰电子、雅克 科技等材料环节。 其实，液冷与存储也紧密相连。 AI大模型的训练和推理，需要消耗海量的数据，这直接拉动了高性能存储和AI芯片的需求。 而高功耗的AI芯片在密集计算时会产生巨大的热量，当温度持续飙升，传统的风冷已力不从心，液冷 因此成为必选项。 在液冷跑道中有一位少有人注意的选手—新宙邦。 相比英维克、曙光数创等行业明星，新宙邦的光芒似乎暗淡了一些， ...

本文源自：智通财经网 国信证券此前指，制冷剂配额约束收紧为长期趋势方向，在此背景下，看好R32、R134a、R125等主流 制冷剂景气度将延续，价格长期仍有较大上行空间；对应制冷剂配额龙头企业有望保持长期高盈利水 平。此外看好液冷产业对氟化液与制冷剂需求的提升。建议关注PVDF、PTFE等含氟高分子价格修复。 智通财经获悉，东岳集团(00189)涨近6%，截至发稿，涨5.78%，报14.09港元，成交额3.02亿港元。 消息面上，据氟务在线，随着春节停产企业陆续复产，市场流动性有望在下周逐步回归，而春旺需求预 计将在3月后陆续释放，当前价格在库存低位与看涨预期的双重支撑下维持高位盘整。展望后市，出口 市场订单执行持续推进，叠加四月制冷展临近，多重利好有望为制冷剂市场带来新的变动契机，部分品 种或迎新一轮价格支撑。 ...

国信证券此前指，制冷剂配额约束收紧为长期趋势方向，在此背景下，看好R32、R134a、R125等主流 制冷剂景气度将延续，价格长期仍有较大上行空间；对应制冷剂配额龙头企业有望保持长期高盈利水 平。此外看好液冷产业对氟化液与制冷剂需求的提升。建议关注PVDF、PTFE等含氟高分子价格修复。 消息面上，据氟务在线，随着春节停产企业陆续复产，市场流动性有望在下周逐步回归，而春旺需求预 计将在3月后陆续释放，当前价格在库存低位与看涨预期的双重支撑下维持高位盘整。展望后市，出口 市场订单执行持续推进，叠加四月制冷展临近，多重利好有望为制冷剂市场带来新的变动契机，部分品 种或迎新一轮价格支撑。 智通财经APP获悉，东岳集团(00189)涨近6%，截至发稿，涨5.78%，报14.09港元，成交额3.02亿港元。 ...

国信证券此前指，制冷剂配额约束收紧为长期趋势方向，在此背景下，看好R32、R134a、R125等主流 制冷剂景气度将延续，价格长期仍有较大上行空间；对应制冷剂配额龙头企业有望保持长期高盈利水 平。此外看好液冷产业对氟化液与制冷剂需求的提升。建议关注PVDF、PTFE等含氟高分子价格修复。 东岳集团(00189)涨近6%，截至发稿，涨5.78%，报14.09港元，成交额3.02亿港元。 消息面上，据氟务在线，随着春节停产企业陆续复产，市场流动性有望在下周逐步回归，而春旺需求预 计将在3月后陆续释放，当前价格在库存低位与看涨预期的双重支撑下维持高位盘整。展望后市，出口 市场订单执行持续推进，叠加四月制冷展临近，多重利好有望为制冷剂市场带来新的变动契机，部分品 种或迎新一轮价格支撑。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 78.00 [1][6]. Core Views - The company's Q4 performance slightly exceeded expectations, driven by increased demand for energy storage and battery chemicals, resulting in a revenue of RMB 9.639 billion for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.84% [1]. - The company is expected to see further growth in the shipment of organic fluorine products and a gradual reduction in losses from Haidefu, with capacitors showing profit elasticity as new products ramp up [1]. - The report highlights the anticipated recovery of 6F prices in the peak season of 2026, which is expected to contribute positively to profitability [3]. Summary by Sections Q4 Performance - In Q4, the company reported revenue of RMB 3.023 billion, a year-on-year increase of 38.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 27.6%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 350 million, up 45.5% year-on-year [2]. - The profitability in Q4 was attributed to price increases in electrolyte raw materials, particularly 6F and additives, which contributed to excess profits [2]. Price Trends and Capacity Expansion - As of February 10, 2026, the price of 6F was RMB 130,000 per ton, down from an average of RMB 180,000 per ton in December, primarily due to seasonal inventory increases. However, limited new production capacity is expected to be released in 2026, which may lead to a price rebound in the peak season [3]. - The company plans to expand its overseas production capacity, including a RMB 200 million investment in Poland for an additional 50,000 tons of electrolyte production and a USD 260 million investment in Saudi Arabia for lithium battery materials [4]. Product Applications and Future Outlook - The company's fluorinated cooling liquids have achieved mass application in semiconductor cooling, data center immersion cooling, and precision instrument cleaning. The upcoming production of high-end fluorochemical products is expected to significantly increase capacity and market opportunities [5]. - The report anticipates an increase in revenue from the electrolyte business, with revised revenue estimates for 2025-2027 reflecting a positive outlook due to high prices and increased production capacity [12].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by Yongtai Technology regarding the acquisition of a 25% stake in Yongtai High-tech from CATL marks a strategic shift, allowing Yongtai High-tech to become a wholly-owned subsidiary again, while CATL transitions from a subsidiary shareholder to a public company shareholder [1] Group 1: Transaction Details - Yongtai Technology plans to issue shares to acquire the 25% stake in Yongtai High-tech held by CATL, with the transaction expected to be disclosed within 10 trading days after the stock suspension starting February 9 [1] - Prior to the announcement, Yongtai Technology's stock price reached a limit up of 28.77 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 26.616 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Strategic Implications for CATL - This "reverse investment" allows CATL to convert heavy asset investments into high liquidity equity, enhancing its connection with upstream core material suppliers [1] - The global battery market is expected to enter a fast-charging era by 2026, with electrolyte performance becoming a decisive factor, making Yongtai High-tech's products critical for battery conductivity and rapid charging [1] Group 3: Yongtai Technology's Production Capacity - Yongtai Technology has reported a production capacity of 150,000 tons per year for electrolytes, 18,000 tons for solid lithium hexafluorophosphate, and 67,000 tons for liquid lithium bis(fluorosulfonyl)imide, among others [2] - The acquisition of full ownership means that all profits from these high-quality assets will be consolidated into the public company's financial statements [2] Group 4: Industry Trends and CATL's Strategy - CATL's recent actions reflect a trend of forming closer ties with core suppliers, as seen in its investments in Tianhua New Energy and Jiangxi Shenghua, among others [3] - The strategic shift from holding stakes in unlisted subsidiaries to public company shares provides CATL with greater flexibility and reduces legal risks associated with potential lawsuits faced by Yongtai High-tech [6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share lithium battery sector is set to undergo significant capital operations, with Yongtai Technology planning to acquire the remaining 25% stake in its subsidiary, Shaowu Yongtai High-tech Materials, from CATL, marking a strategic shift in their relationship from subsidiary shareholder to listed company shareholder [1][5]. Group 1: Transaction Details - Yongtai Technology announced plans to issue shares to acquire the remaining 25% stake in Yongtai High-tech, which it currently holds 75% of, aiming for full ownership and improved management efficiency [2][3]. - The transaction is expected to enhance Yongtai Technology's net profit and eliminate minority shareholder impacts, aligning with the company's strategy to strengthen its core business in lithium battery materials [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Yongtai Technology's 2025 performance forecast indicates a significant reduction in losses, with expected revenues between 5 billion to 5.5 billion yuan and a net loss of 25.6 million to 48.6 million yuan, a reduction of over 90% compared to the previous year's loss of 478 million yuan [3][4]. - The recovery in the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors has driven a substantial increase in sales and prices of lithium battery materials, contributing to the company's improved financial outlook [3][4]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - The acquisition signifies a deeper strategic partnership with CATL, enhancing Yongtai Technology's position in the supply chain and potentially increasing its bargaining power [6][7]. - Both companies share a vision for the future of the energy sector, with Yongtai Technology focusing on expanding its product offerings in lithium salts and additives, while CATL benefits from a more flexible investment in upstream material companies [6][7]. Group 4: Future Prospects - Yongtai Technology is exploring new growth areas, including fluorinated liquid products for semiconductor manufacturing and data center cooling, which could become significant revenue sources as demand in these sectors grows [7]. - The collaboration potential in emerging fields like liquid cooling and energy storage management between Yongtai Technology and CATL is noteworthy, given CATL's position as a leader in the energy storage market [7].

Core Viewpoint - Haohua Technology (600378) is actively responding to regulatory requirements regarding the management of ozone-depleting substances and is focusing on leveraging market opportunities arising from the accelerated development of AI infrastructure [1] Group 1: Regulatory Compliance - The company acknowledges the strict production management of hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) as per the "Regulations on the Management of Ozone-Depleting Substances" [1] - Specific quota information can be found on the official website of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment [1] Group 2: Product Development and Market Strategy - The company is increasing R&D investment to develop multiple fluorinated liquid products [1] - There is a strong emphasis on quality control in production to ensure stable and reliable product performance [1] - The company is deepening collaborative development with downstream customers to continuously optimize product compatibility, aiming to provide more efficient and greener solutions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of Yongtai Technology's acquisition of a 25% stake in Yongtai High-tech from CATL marks a strategic shift, allowing Yongtai Technology to regain full ownership and CATL to become a shareholder in a listed company, enhancing their relationship and operational synergy in the lithium battery supply chain [1][2]. Group 1: Strategic Implications - The "reverse equity investment" by CATL is a strategic maneuver to strengthen ties with upstream material suppliers while mitigating risks through capital tools, showcasing a clever approach to market positioning [2]. - The acquisition allows Yongtai Technology to consolidate its profitable assets, with all profits from Yongtai High-tech now reflected in the listed company's financial statements, potentially leading to significant value creation for shareholders [4][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - By 2026, the global battery market is expected to enter a fast-charging era, with electrolyte performance becoming a critical factor. Yongtai High-tech's products, such as lithium hexafluorophosphate and LiFSI, are essential for enhancing battery conductivity [4]. - Yongtai Technology's production capacity includes 150,000 tons/year of electrolytes, 18,000 tons/year of solid lithium hexafluorophosphate, and 67,000 tons/year of liquid LiFSI, indicating a robust operational foundation to support future growth [4]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - The relationship between CATL and Yongtai Technology has evolved significantly since 2021, with Yongtai High-tech previously contributing over half of Yongtai Technology's profits. The recent acquisition reflects changing industry dynamics and Yongtai Technology's strategic repositioning [6]. - CATL's increasing investments in upstream suppliers, such as Tianhua New Energy and Jiangxi Shenghua, illustrate a broader strategy to create a resilient "CATL ecosystem" that enhances supply chain stability and profitability [5]. Group 4: Legal and Compliance Considerations - The ongoing legal disputes involving Yongtai High-tech, with claims amounting to 887 million yuan, pose compliance risks for CATL. Transitioning to a shareholder role in a listed company provides a legal buffer against potential liabilities from these disputes [7].