2025年，在全球贸易保护主义抬头、不确定性弥漫的背景下，中国经济在"高质量发展"的主航道中稳健前行。 然而，政策刺激的边际效应在下半年显著递减。前期发力过猛导致后续额度受限，部分省份补贴暂停，加之部分家庭耐用消费品已完成更新，政策拉动效果 明显弱化。这引发了关于补贴效率与可持续性的深层思考，政策未来需向更精准、惠及更广泛人群的方向优化。 与此同时，"投资于人"理念在今年实现了历史性突破，首次与传统的"投资于物"置于同等战略高度。这标志着宏观政策从过往过度依赖基建与房地产投资， 向弥补民生短板、提升居民福祉的系统性转变。 育儿补贴、消费贷贴息、养老金上调等具体措施陆续出台，旨在通过减轻居民在养老、医疗、教育等方面的负担，激活消费潜力，扭转长期的高储蓄倾向。 这一根本思路的调整，预示着未来公共支出结构的持续优化。 2025年，中国对外经济关系经历了重大压力测试。面对美国再度掀起的超高关税战，中国一改2018年时的策略，采取了迅速而强硬的反制措施。 这份底气体现在经过十年布局形成的多元化贸易网络上：对美出口占比下降的同时，对东盟、非洲及"一带一路"沿线国家的出口实现了强劲增长。 新能源汽车、集成电路、船舶等高附加 ...

Summary of Coal Industry Research and Conference Call Industry Overview - The coal industry has faced significant challenges since 2013, with profits declining sharply and the industry suffering severe losses exceeding 95% by the end of 2015. Coal prices halved, leading to cash flow pressures and debt default risks, with the debt level surpassing 3 trillion RMB and debt-to-asset ratios exceeding 70% [1][2][4]. Key Points on Supply-Side Reform - The supply-side reform aimed to address existential threats to coal enterprises, including severe debt risks and potential systemic financial risks, as well as social issues like reduced worker incomes and unemployment threats [1][4]. - The reform involved eliminating outdated production capacity, controlling new capacity, and providing financial support, which included subsidies and price stabilization measures [1][8][10]. - The implementation of the 276 working days policy in 2016 forced mines to operate only 276 days a year, leading to a rapid increase in coal prices, which doubled before the policy was revoked in March 2017 [1][3][13]. Market Dynamics and Price Fluctuations - The coal industry experienced four major market fluctuations from 2016 to 2018, influenced by policies such as the 276 working days limit and import restrictions. Coal prices saw significant increases during these periods, particularly for coking coal [3][19]. - The first wave of price increases occurred from May to the end of 2016, with coal prices rising from 400 RMB to 730 RMB, driven by production cuts [19]. - Subsequent waves of price increases were noted in 2017 and early 2018, with prices reaching over 1,000 RMB during peak winter demand [19]. Financial Implications - The supply-side reform had a notable impact on coal prices and stock prices, with significant recoveries observed starting in 2016. For instance, from February to April 2016, thermal coal prices increased by 17%, and coking coal prices rose by 30% [14][15]. - By 2020, over 1 billion tons of outdated capacity had been eliminated, representing 20% of the total capacity as of the end of 2015, which improved overall industry efficiency and safety [9][21]. Regional Challenges - The Shanxi region faced unique challenges, including a heavier personnel burden compared to other major coal-producing areas, which exacerbated its losses [5][6]. - In Shaanxi, companies like Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry Group experienced severe price drops, with prices as low as 165 RMB, while still facing operational difficulties [6]. Future Outlook - The current market outlook suggests that future trends will continue to be influenced by supply-demand dynamics and policy adjustments. The implementation of anti-involution measures is expected to stabilize supply and enhance overall profitability [22][23]. - Recommendations include focusing on coking coal companies and large leading enterprises with dividend potential, such as China Coal and Shenhua, anticipating a significant rebound in the coking coal sector [22][23].

中经记者 何莎莎 北京报道 "反内卷"政策仍然在持续升温。 近期结束的中央政治局会议部署了一系列重要改革举措，包括"纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，推动市 场竞争秩序持续优化""依法依规治理企业无序竞争"等，凸显了国家已对这一现象予以充分重视。 在7月15日国新办发布会上，国家统计局回应了"反内卷"话题，表示"有关部门正在制定相关措施，进一 步加大市场秩序的规范治理"。7月1日中央财经委员会召开会议明确提出，要纵深推进全国统一大市场 建设，聚焦重点难点，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退 出。 从中央层面到部委层面政策加码的同时，多个行业也纷纷跟进"反内卷"。产业端，汽车、光伏、钢铁、 水泥等行业集中出台措施；金融行业，多地银行业、保险业协会发布"反内卷"自律公约。 与此同时，A股也掀起了"反内卷"主题行情。不少机构认为，这一主题有望成为接下来一段时间的主 线。"反内卷"行情背后的政策背景是什么？这一行情未来将如何发展？围绕一系列问题，《中国经营 报》触角"零观财经"与北京大学政府管理学院教授马亮、远东资信首席宏观研究员张林进行了访谈。 内卷现象冲击多个行业 内卷现象的愈演愈烈 ...