Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View - Downstream consumption continues to recover, and the zinc price is expected to perform well in the long - term, but there are concerns about recession trading due to rising oil prices [1][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is -$41.31 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 24,310 yuan per ton, with a change of 20 yuan from the previous trading day and a spot premium of -120 yuan per ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 24,340 yuan per ton, with a change of 30 yuan and a spot premium of -90 yuan per ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 24,320 yuan per ton, with a change of 20 yuan and a spot premium of -110 yuan per ton [1] Futures - On March 12, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 24,245 yuan per ton, closed at 24,300 yuan per ton, down 120 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the day was 109,003 lots, and the open interest was 72,726 lots. The highest price during the day was 24,460 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 24,095 yuan per ton [2] Inventory - As of March 12, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 268,800 tons, with a change of 6,600 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 98,750 tons, with a change of -150 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - Downstream construction is continuously recovering, but market transactions are generally quiet. Downstream buyers only make purchases based on rigid demand, and it is difficult to repair the spot discount. There are still short - term disruptions in the zinc ore supply. Although the Middle East crisis has shown signs of easing, there are continuous risks in the Strait of Hormuz, and transportation is still hindered. The spot quotation TC of imported zinc ore is around $10 per ton, and the ore price supports the zinc price. Although the by - product profit is substantial, due to the rising overseas energy costs, the probability of overseas smelting restart is small. The domestic smelting loss is continuously narrowing, and there is still enthusiasm for supply. Downstream consumption has entered the post - holiday resumption stage, and the inventory inflection point is expected to arrive. There are still good expectations for domestic and overseas consumption, and the zinc price is expected to perform well in the long - term, but attention should be paid to the concerns about recession trading caused by the continuous rise in oil prices [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The basic metals are in a state of shock consolidation, and attention should be paid to the progress of downstream consumption recovery. In the short term, the basic metals are expected to be in a shock state. In the medium term, the risk of the Fed's independence and concerns about supply disruptions remain, and varieties such as copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel are expected to maintain a shock - upward trend [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **Viewpoint**: Trump's tariff was rejected, and copper prices are in high - level shock. - **Analysis**: On February 24, the spot of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper reported a premium of 255 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 275 yuan/ton; the spot TC of 25% copper concentrate was - 51.17 US dollars/dry ton, with a month - on - month increase of 0 US dollars/dry ton. The US court ruled that Trump's tariff was unconstitutional, which supported copper prices. The supply of copper ore is in a tight pattern, and the smelting profit is falling, with the supply of refined copper expected to shrink. The terminal demand is weak, and the social inventory of refined copper is high, which restricts the upward space of copper prices. - **Outlook**: The supply constraints of copper still exist. Although copper prices may be adjusted in the short term, the long - term upward trend remains. It is expected to be shock - upward [6]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The expectation of production cuts is in a game with the reality of oversupply, and the alumina price is in shock operation. - **Analysis**: On February 24, the national weighted index of alumina spot was 2,637.5 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5.9 yuan/ton; the alumina warehouse receipt was 327,928 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 18,053 tons. The macro sentiment amplifies the market fluctuations. The spot average price has dropped significantly compared with the end of last year, and the supply contraction expectation is intensifying. However, the supply contraction is still insufficient, and the cost support is weakening. - **Outlook**: The current supply and demand are in a state of oversupply, but the expectation of production cuts is intensifying. It is expected to maintain a shock state [7]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: The inventory has increased significantly, and the aluminum price is in shock operation. - **Analysis**: On February 24, the domestic electrolytic aluminum spot average price was 23,425 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 236 yuan/ton; the spot premium was - 155 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 35 yuan/ton. The Trump tariff policy has increased uncertainty, and the short - term risk preference has decreased. The domestic production capacity is stable, and the smelting profit is high. The demand is suppressed by high prices, and the inventory is increasing. - **Outlook**: The positive macro expectation and the expectation of tightening supply and demand remain unchanged. It is expected that the aluminum price will maintain a shock - upward trend [8]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: The cost support continues, and the price is in shock operation. - **Analysis**: The price of scrap aluminum is high, and the supply is tight, providing strong cost support. The production start - up rate is at a low level, and the supply may be restricted by policies. The demand is mainly for rigid - need replenishment at low prices. The social inventory has increased. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the cost support is strong, and the price is expected to maintain a shock - upward trend. In the medium term, the cost support logic is strengthened, and the supply and demand are in a tight balance. It is expected to maintain a shock - upward trend [10]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The US tariff policy is fluctuating, and the zinc price is in high - level shock. - **Analysis**: On February 24, the premium of Shanghai 0 zinc to the main contract was 25 yuan/ton, etc. The total inventory of zinc ingots in seven places was 174,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 36,200 tons. The Trump tariff was judged illegal, and the market risk preference increased. The zinc ore processing fee decline has slowed down, and the zinc ingot production has increased. The domestic consumption is entering the peak season, but the terminal demand is weak. - **Outlook**: The supply pressure of zinc ingots has increased, and the terminal demand is weak. The social inventory will continue to accumulate. However, the macro sentiment may improve near the Two Sessions. It is expected that the zinc price will be in a shock state [11]. 3.1.6 Lead - **Viewpoint**: The LME lead inventory has increased significantly, and the lead price is in shock operation. - **Analysis**: On February 24, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,925 yuan/ton, etc. The domestic lead ingot social inventory was 64,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6,900 tons. The spot premium has increased slightly, the supply has decreased slightly, and the demand is in a weak state. - **Outlook**: The production of primary and secondary lead smelters remains high. After the Spring Festival, the start - up rate of lead - acid battery enterprises may gradually recover, but the terminal demand is weak, and the inventory may continue to accumulate. The cost of waste batteries remains high. It is expected that the lead price will be in a shock state [12][13]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **Viewpoint**: The nickel ore quota in Indonesia in 2026 has been determined, and the nickel price is in a strong - upward trend. - **Analysis**: On February 24, the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt was 51,924 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 534 tons; the LME nickel inventory was 287,328 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 378 tons. The approved nickel ore production quota in Indonesia is between 260 million tons and 270 million tons. The supply pressure of nickel remains, and the demand is in the off - season. Indonesia has revised down the nickel ore quota and plans to revise the domestic trade pricing method. - **Outlook**: The current fundamentals of nickel have not improved significantly, and the supply and demand are expected to be loose in February. The LME inventory is at a high level, which suppresses the price. The revision of the nickel ore quota in Indonesia supports the nickel price. It is expected that the nickel price will be in a shock - upward trend [14][15]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: The nickel price is rising in shock, and the stainless - steel futures price is rising. - **Analysis**: On February 24, the stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt inventory was 60,810 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 612 tons. The nickel - iron price is strong, and the cost of stainless steel is supported. The production in January increased slightly, and it is expected to decline significantly in February. The terminal demand is cautious, and the inventory is increasing. - **Outlook**: The production in January increased slightly, but it is expected to decline significantly in February. The downstream demand is weak in the off - season. The fundamentals suppress the price, but the cost support exists. It is expected that the stainless - steel price will be in a shock - upward trend [16]. 3.1.9 Tin - **Viewpoint**: There is no obvious driving force, and the tin price is in shock operation. - **Analysis**: On February 24, the LME tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 15 tons to 7,675 tons; the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 1,428 tons to 11,781 tons. The spot price of 1 tin ingot was 387,250 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 8,600 yuan/ton. The supply of tin is still a key factor affecting the price. The supply in Myanmar has weakened, and the supply in Indonesia is restricted. The demand in the semiconductor, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicle industries is increasing. - **Outlook**: The supply risk is high, and the inventory is at a low level. It is expected that the tin price will be in a shock - upward trend in the medium and long term [17][18]. 3.2行情监测 3.2.1 Copper - Not provided in the given content 3.2.2 Alumina - Not provided in the given content 3.2.3 Aluminum - Not provided in the given content 3.2.4 Aluminum Alloy - Not provided in the given content 3.2.5 Zinc - Not provided in the given content 3.2.6 Lead - Not provided in the given content 3.2.7 Nickel - Not provided in the given content 3.2.8 Stainless Steel - Not provided in the given content 3.2.9 Tin - Not provided in the given content 3.3中信期货商品指数 - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity 20 index was 2,766.04, with a month - on - month increase of 2.23%; the industrial product index was 2,300.06, with a month - on - month increase of 1.14%; the PPI commodity index was 1,405.49, with a month - on - month increase of 0.67% [144]. - **Plate Index**: The non - ferrous metal index on February 24, 2026, was 2,695.65, with a daily increase of 0.95%, a 5 - day increase of 0.27%, a 1 - month decrease of 3.69%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.36% [145].