Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Report's Core View - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of both coking coal (JM2601) and coke (J2601) are mainly oscillatory, with an intraday bias towards strength. The coking coal is expected to be oscillatory due to good spot market atmosphere, while the coke is expected to have range - bound oscillations due to the interweaving of multiple and short factors [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a) Coking Coal (JM) - **Price and Supply - demand Situation**: The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 1,280 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5.79%. Last week, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 76.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.3 tons, but 3.3 tons lower than the same period last year. At the import end, the number of Mongolian coal customs - clearance vehicles at the 288 Port returned to the annual high last week, with the daily customs - clearance vehicles around 1,300 - 1,400. The total daily average output of coke from sample coking plants and steel mills was 113.37 tons, with basically no change week - on - week [5]. - **Market Outlook**: The real - world fundamentals of coking coal have limited support. However, under the repeated disturbance of the anti - involution theme, the downstream replenishment expectation before the National Day and the coal mine production - reduction expectation at the end of the month support the price to a certain extent, driving the main contract of coking coal to maintain high - level oscillations [5]. b) Coke (J) - **Price and Supply - demand Situation**: The latest quotation of the warehouse - receipt price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1,470 yuan/ton, with no change week - on - week; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1,440 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 4.00%. As of the week of September 19, the total daily average output of coke from sample coking plants and steel mills was 113.37 tons, with basically no change week - on - week; the daily average output of hot metal from 247 steel mills nationwide was 241.02 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.47 tons [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The fundamental contradictions of coke are not prominent for the time being, and the market is in a wait - and - see mood. The futures are in range - bound oscillations, and the future trend depends on whether there are new positive factors in the anti - involution policy [6].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 9 月 24 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 多空交织，焦煤区间震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 现货支撑显现，焦炭震荡运行 | 备注： ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1210.0 元/吨 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 9 月 23 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 供应强预期降温，焦煤震荡回调 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 观望情绪增加，焦炭区间震荡 | 备注： 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：根据钢联统计，截至 9 月 19 日当周，全国 523 家炼焦煤矿精煤日均产量 76.1 万吨， 环比增 3.3 万吨，较去年同期产量偏低 3.3 万吨。进口端 288 口岸上周蒙煤通关车数重回年内 高位，日通关车数在 1300~1400 车左右。需求端，样本焦化厂和钢厂焦炭日均产量合计 113.37 万吨，周环比基本持平。整体来看，焦煤现实基本面支撑不足，但在反内卷题材反复扰动的背 景下，国庆前下 ...