投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 9 月 24 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 多空交织，焦煤区间震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 现货支撑显现，焦炭震荡运行 | 备注： ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1210.0 元/吨 ...

Group 1: Market Information - **In the futures market of rebar**: RB05 was at 3223 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan; RB10 was at 3113 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; RB01 was at 3182 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan. The spreads between different contracts also changed, such as RB01 - RB05 being -38 yuan, down 1 yuan [3]. - **In the futures market of hot - rolled coil**: HC05 was at 3361 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan; HC10 was at 3367 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan; HC01 was at 3357 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The spreads between different contracts also had fluctuations, like HC01 - HC05 being -4 yuan, up 7 yuan [3]. - **In the spot market of rebar**: The prices of rebar in different regions had slight changes. For example, Shanghai Zhongtian was at 3270 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The spot profits in different regions generally decreased, such as the East China rebar profit dropping from -157 yuan to -163 yuan [3]. - **In the spot market of hot - rolled coil**: The prices of hot - rolled coil in different regions also changed. For example, Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was at 3370 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The spot profits of hot - rolled coil in some regions decreased, such as the Tianjin hot - rolled coil profit dropping from -192 yuan to -195 yuan [3]. Group 2: Market Judgment - **Related prices**: The net price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3280 yuan (+30), Beijing Jingye was 3250 yuan (+10), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was 3430 yuan (+30), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3380 yuan (+20) [7]. - **Trading strategy**: The black sector declined today, maintaining a weak oscillation. Spot trading was weak, mainly at low prices. Steel production continued to resume last week, with rebar production decreasing and hot - rolled coil production increasing. The overall inventory of the five major steel products increased, but the inventory accumulation speed slowed down. Steel exports remained strong, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled products was still high. The steel price was supported due to the recovery of steel demand, high hot - metal production, and strong steel exports. As the military parade approaches, hot - metal production is expected to decrease next week, alleviating the supply pressure. However, after August, the coal daily consumption will decline, blast furnaces may resume production quickly, and the steel fundamentals may deteriorate. If the expectation of coal mine production reduction fails, the steel price will still face pressure after the parade. It is expected that the steel price will maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the short term. In September, attention should be paid to the peak - season demand, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [8]. - **Option strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Unilateral and arbitrage strategies**: The steel price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage [10]. Group 3: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple figures related to rebar and hot - rolled coil, including price trends, basis, spreads, and profit trends over different time periods and contract types, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [16][20][28]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a black metal research report by the Commodity Research Institute, dated August 26, 2025 [3][6] - The researchers are Zhou Tao, Ding Zuchao, and Qi Chunyi [3] Group 2: Steel Related Information - The central government plans to strengthen the national carbon market by 2027 and form a carbon pricing mechanism by 2030 [3] - As of July, the national power generation capacity was 36.7 billion kilowatts, with solar and wind power growing rapidly [3] - On August 25, the average cost of 76 independent EAF construction steel mills was 3347 yuan/ton, with an average loss of 99 yuan/ton and a valley electricity profit of 1 yuan/ton [3] - Spot prices in Shanghai and Beijing increased, with Shanghai rebar at 3310 yuan (+320), Beijing rebar at 3250 (+10), Shanghai hot-rolled coil at 3430 yuan (+30), and Tianjin hot-rolled coil at 3380 yuan (+20) [4] Logical Analysis - The black - plate oscillated weakly on the night of August 23. Construction steel sales on the 25th were 11110 tons [5] - Steel production resumed last week, with rebar production decreasing and hot - rolled coil increasing. The five major steel products accumulated inventory, but the speed slowed down [5] - Steel exports remained strong, and hot - rolled apparent demand was high. Building material demand rebounded from the bottom [5] - Steel demand improved, iron - water production remained high, and exports were strong, supporting steel prices [5] - As the parade approaches, iron - water production is expected to decrease next week, relieving supply pressure [5] - A coal mine accident in Fujian increased the expectation of coal mine production cuts, supporting pre - parade steel prices [5] - After August, coal consumption will decline, and if the coal mine production cut expectation fails, post - parade steel prices may face pressure [7] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Steel prices will maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [7] - Arbitrage: Close profitable long - short positions [8] - Options: Wait and see [9] Group 3: Coking Coal and Coke Related Information - Henan coke enterprises will limit production by 20 - 35% from August 25 to September 3, and some have already implemented a 30 - 35% limit [10] - The coke price in Xingtai is planned to increase, with wet - quenched coke up 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton [10][17] Logical Analysis - Coking coal prices fluctuated, and downstream procurement enthusiasm weakened. Coke supply and demand were in a tight balance, and mainstream coke enterprises planned an eighth price increase [12] - National coal mine safety work is expected to be stricter, which will affect coal supply and gradually increase the coking coal price center [12] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Oscillate strongly. Buy on dips [13] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [13] - Options: Wait and see [13] - Spot - futures: Wait and see [13] Group 4: Iron Ore Related Information - Shanghai optimized real - estate policies, including relaxed purchase restrictions and tax exemptions [14] - The National Development and Reform Commission held a symposium on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing employment [14] - From August 18 - 24, global iron ore shipments were 3315800 tons, a decrease of 90800 tons. Australia and Brazil shipments increased by 4400 tons [14] - Qingdao Port PB powder spot was 780 yuan (+13), and the 01 iron ore main contract basis was 36 [14] Logical Analysis - Iron ore prices fell slightly at night, and market sentiment was volatile [15] - In the past month, mainstream mine shipments increased year - on - year, with Australia flat and Brazil growing rapidly. Non - mainstream mine shipments were high in August [15] - In July, manufacturing and infrastructure investment growth slowed down. Manufacturing steel demand growth weakened, suppressing terminal steel demand [15] Trading Strategies - The report does not provide specific trading strategies for iron ore, only indicating that the above views are for reference only [16] Group 5: Ferroalloys Related Information - The coke price in Xingtai is planned to increase, with wet - quenched coke up 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton [17] - Shanghai optimized real - estate policies, including relaxed purchase restrictions [17] Logical Analysis - On the 25th, ferrosilicon spot prices were weak, with some areas up 50 yuan/ton. Last week's production growth slowed down, and futures prices were close to production costs after a sharp decline [18][20] - On the 25th, manganese ore spot prices were weak, and manganese - silicon spot prices were strong, with some areas up 70 yuan/ton. Production growth slowed down, and demand showed no downward trend [20] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Futures prices are close to production costs, and high - premium risks have been released. Expect bottom - oscillating [21] - Arbitrage: Gradually take profits on spot - futures long positions [21] - Options: Sell straddle option combinations at high prices [21]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal sector rose today due to the relaxation of Shanghai's housing market policies and news of coal mine safety inspections, with coking coal and coke leading the gains. Steel spot trading was average, mainly at low prices. - Last week, steel production resumed. Rebar production continued to decline while hot - rolled coil production increased. The overall inventory of the five major steel products continued to accumulate, but the accumulation rate slowed down. - Recently, steel exports remained resilient, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was still strong. Building material demand rebounded from the bottom. - Currently, steel demand has shown some improvement. High hot - metal production and strong steel exports support steel prices. As the military parade approaches, hot - metal production is expected to decline in the second half of next week, alleviating the supply pressure of steel. - The recent coal mine accident in Fujian has raised market expectations of coal mine production cuts. The current futures price has fallen to a level close to that before the "anti - involution" impact, so steel prices may be strongly supported before the military parade with limited downside space. - However, coal consumption will decline after August, blast furnaces may resume production quickly, and the steel fundamentals will continue to deteriorate. If the expectation of coal mine production cuts fails, steel prices will still face pressure after the military parade. It is expected that steel prices will maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the short term. In September, attention should be paid to the peak - season demand for steel, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - **Rebar Futures**: The prices of RB05, RB10, and RB01 contracts increased by 31 yuan/ton, 19 yuan/ton, and 29 yuan/ton respectively. The spreads and profits of different contracts also changed. For example, the 05 - contract rebar盘面利润 decreased by 20 yuan/ton [3]. - **Rebar Spot**: The prices of rebar in Shanghai, Nanjing, Shandong, and other regions increased. The cheapest delivery product was 3280 yuan/ton. The regional price differences and spot profits also showed different changes. For example, the profit of Shanghai - Nanjing rebar remained unchanged, while the profit of Shandong rebar decreased by 72 yuan/ton [3]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Futures**: The prices of HC05, HC10, and HC01 contracts increased by 30 yuan/ton, 28 yuan/ton, and 25 yuan/ton respectively. The spreads and profits of different contracts changed. For example, the 05 - contract hot - rolled coil盘面利润 decreased by 21 yuan/ton [3]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Spot**: The prices of hot - rolled coils in Tianjin, Shanghai, and other regions increased. The cheapest delivery product was 3420 yuan/ton. The regional price differences and spot profits also showed different changes. For example, the profit of Shanghai - Tianjin hot - rolled coil remained unchanged, while the profit of East China hot - rolled coil increased by 16 yuan/ton [3]. Market Judgement - **Related Prices**: The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3280 yuan (+30), Beijing Jingye was 3250 yuan (+10), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was 3430 yuan (+30), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3380 yuan (+20) [7]. - **Trading Strategies** - Unilateral trading: Steel prices are expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to gradually close out long - short positions in rebar. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see. - **Important Information** - On August 25, six departments in Shanghai jointly issued a notice to optimize and adjust real - estate policies, including reducing housing purchase restrictions, optimizing housing provident funds, optimizing personal housing credit, and improving personal housing property tax. - On August 25, the China Coking Industry Association's Market Committee held a meeting. Participating enterprises decided to raise the prices of tamping wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton, tamping dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, and top - charged coke by 75 yuan/ton starting from 0:00 on August 26 [9][10]. Relevant Attachments The report provides multiple charts showing the prices, spreads, and profits of different contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions over different time periods, including basis, price differences between contracts, and cash profits [13].