行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 - 证券分析师 韩强 A0230518060003 hanqiang@swsresearch.com 武雨桐 A0230520090001 wuyt@swsresearch.com 穆少阳 A0230524070009 musy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 2026 年 03 月 02 日 基本面持续改善，继续推荐商业航 天、两机等板块 看好 ——国防军工行业周报（2026 年第 9 周） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 上周申万国防军工指数上涨 4.77%，中证军工龙头指数上涨 3.56%，同期上证综指上 涨 1.98%，沪深 300 上涨 1.08%，创业板指上涨 1.05%，申万国防军工指数跑赢创业 板指、跑赢沪深 300、跑赢上证综指、跑赢军工龙头指数。1、从细分板块来看，上周 国防军工板块 4.77%的涨幅在 31 个申万一级行业涨跌幅排名第 9 位。2、从我们构建的 军工集团指数变化来看，上周中证民参军涨跌幅排名靠前，平均涨幅为 6.63%。3、从 个股表现来看 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the defense and military industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [4][28]. Core Insights - The defense industry is expected to see continuous improvement in fundamentals and orders, driven by the steady advancement of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and increased military spending intentions from the US and Europe due to recent geopolitical events [4]. - The report highlights that the military industry is entering a new cycle of quality improvement and growth, with expectations for enhanced delivery and performance recovery in the first half of 2026 [4]. - Key sectors to focus on include commercial aerospace, the dual-engine industry (gas turbines and commercial engines), and controllable nuclear fusion [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand growth and technological advancements in driving investment opportunities within the military sector [4]. Market Performance - Last week, the Shenwan Defense and Military Index rose by 2.17%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 0.41% [5]. - The top five performing stocks in the defense sector included Yingliu Co. (up 24.87%), TeFa Information (up 22.73%), and China Power (up 18.32%) [12]. - Conversely, the bottom five performers included Shenjian Co. (down 15.22%) and Aerospace Engineering (down 10.61%) [13]. Valuation Changes - The current PE-TTM for the Shenwan military sector is 97.40, indicating it is at a historically high level, with a valuation percentile of 75.55% since January 2014 [20]. - The report notes a slight differentiation in valuations among sub-sectors, with aerospace and aviation equipment showing relatively high PE valuations since 2020 [20]. Key Investment Targets - Recommended stocks for domestic demand include AVIC Shenyang Aircraft (中航沈飞), Feilihua (菲利华), and Huazhong CNC (华秦科技) [4]. - For external growth opportunities, stocks such as Ruichuang Micro-Nano (睿创微纳) and Aerospace Electronics (航天电子) are highlighted [4].

Group 1: Key Insights on the Robotics Industry - Quadruped robots, known as "machine dogs," have strong environmental adaptability and have entered the commercialization phase, excelling in tasks where wheeled or tracked robots struggle [10] - The market for machine dogs is expected to grow significantly due to diverse application scenarios, including defense, industrial use, emergency rescue, and consumer household applications [10] - The machine dog industry is experiencing global competition, with domestic brands currently holding a dominant position, and over 50 domestic companies are now involved in the market [10] Group 2: Key Insights on the Utilities Sector - In the thermal power sector, both coal and electricity prices are declining, which is expected to stabilize revenue through capacity pricing, while coal prices are projected to average 697 RMB/ton in 2025, a decrease of 18.47% year-on-year [10] - Hydropower utilization hours are expected to increase in 2025, with a projected annual utilization of 3367 hours, benefiting from improved water conditions and reduced financial costs due to interest rate cuts [10] - Nuclear power is anticipated to maintain high utilization hours, with a projected 7809 hours in 2025, although performance may be impacted by declining market electricity prices [10] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - For thermal power, recommended companies include Guodian Power, Inner Mongolia Huadian, and Huaneng International Power, which are expected to benefit from stable profitability [10] - In the hydropower sector, companies like Yangtze Power and State Power Investment are recommended due to their expected stable growth in generation capacity [10] - In the natural gas sector, long-term prospects are positive for companies like Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy, as cost reductions and demand recovery are anticipated [10]

Core Viewpoint - The GTF2025 conference focuses on linking the global aviation power and gas turbine industry chain, aiming to build a cooperative and win-win ecosystem [3][4]. Group 1: Event Overview - The GTF2025 conference is held at the Shanghai World Expo Exhibition and Convention Center, gathering industry elites to discuss collaborative development in the aviation engine and gas turbine sectors [1][3]. - The event is guided by the Shanghai Municipal Economic and Information Commission and co-hosted by three authoritative institutions: the China Power Engineering Society, the China Society of Aeronautics and Astronautics, and the China Society of Engineering Thermophysics [4]. Group 2: Key Participants and Contributions - The opening ceremony features a diverse array of representatives from government, industry, academia, and research, including notable figures such as Jiang Yiren, Cao Zhian, and Wu Wensheng [5][6]. - Cao Zhian emphasizes the conference's role in implementing the strategy for a strong technological nation and addressing challenges in industrial development [8]. - Wu Wensheng highlights the complexity of the aviation power industry and the necessity for collaborative innovation across the entire industry chain [8]. Group 3: Academic Integration - A concurrent high-level academic conference on aviation engines and gas turbines is organized, supported by several universities and research institutions [9]. - The conference includes a certificate awarding ceremony for the expert committee members, showcasing the integration of academic and industrial expertise [9]. Group 4: Exhibition Highlights - The exhibition area spans 15,000 square meters, featuring over 200 top domestic and international exhibitors, showcasing the entire industry chain from system integrators to key component manufacturers [11]. - The event attracts over 10,000 professional visitors on its opening day, reflecting the strong engagement and vitality of the industry [11]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The theme for the next GTF2026 conference is announced as "Reconstructing the Global Supply Chain, Promoting Collaborative Innovation, Seizing Chinese Opportunities," scheduled for May 12-14, 2026 [14].