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指数基金产品研究系列之二百四十八:聚焦空天、强弹性的军工:航天航空ETF天弘(159241)投资价值分析
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The aerospace and defense industry is driven by multiple factors, including the 14th Five - Year Plan, the development of military intelligence, and the growth of military trade. It has long - term growth potential and short - term catalysts [3][8][11][17][32]. - The aerospace and aviation sectors are the two core areas to focus on, with increasing downstream demand in high - end fighter jets, aero - engines, and related supporting materials [40]. - The Guozheng Aerospace and Aviation Industry Index has strong industry theme attributes, high elasticity, and relatively stable fundamentals, making it a representative military - related index [3][68][83][88]. - The Aerospace and Aviation ETF Tianhong (159241) closely tracks the Guozheng Aerospace and Aviation Industry Index, with low management and custody fees, and shows good performance in terms of share growth and liquidity compared to comparable ETFs [3][94][96]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Multiple Logics Driving the Rapid Development of the Industry and Grasping the Two Main Lines of Aerospace and Aviation 3.1.1 Multiple Logics Supporting the Military Fundamentals and the Industry's Long - term Growth - The 14th Five - Year Plan is in its critical period, promoting the transformation of "point - like orders" to "line - like orders", and factory performance is expected to be realized. The demand for improving quality and increasing quantity remains strong to achieve the goal of a powerful military by 2027 [8][10]. - The construction of military intelligence and unmanned systems at home and abroad is expanding the growth boundary of the military industry. Military AI is reshaping the battlefield rules, and military robots are becoming new combat forces [11][13][15]. - China's military trade net export has been increasing steadily, and there is still much room for market share growth. The military achievements during the 14th Five - Year Plan and improved diplomatic relations are conducive to the development of the military trade market [17][21][26]. 3.1.2 Short - term Catalysts Increasing Industry Attention - The "15th Five - Year Plan" is being formulated, which will promote the high - quality construction of the military industry and may increase the industry's valuation. The 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti - Fascist War parade will be a short - term catalyst to boost the industry's attention [32][36]. 3.1.3 Focusing on the Two Core Main Lines of Aerospace and Aviation - **Aviation Equipment**: The downstream demand for high - end fighter jets and aero - engines is accelerating, and the market space is expanding. This includes aircraft manufacturers, aero - engine manufacturers, and high - end supporting materials suppliers. The future market space for military aero - engines in the next decade is estimated to be about 1.2 trillion yuan [40][52]. - **Space Equipment**: The demand for guidance equipment is increasing due to the growing importance of missiles in modern warfare. The satellite industry chain has a large market potential, with the downstream ground equipment and satellite services accounting for over 90% of the market value [59][64]. 3.2 Guozheng Aerospace and Aviation Industry Index: Focusing on Guozheng Aerospace and Aviation Industry Stocks with Strong Industry Theme Attributes and High Theme Elasticity 3.2.1 Index Compilation Method - The index is designed to reflect the stock price changes of aerospace and aviation - related listed companies in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges. It selects large - market - value stocks in the Guozheng tertiary industry "Aerospace and Aviation". The sample space has certain requirements, and the selection method is based on free - floating market capitalization, with a semi - annual adjustment frequency [68][70]. 3.2.2 Index Weight and Market Value Distribution - As of July 1, 2025, the index has 50 constituent stocks, with relatively dispersed weights. It has a strong defense - military attribute, focusing on aviation equipment and military electronics. The average free - floating market capitalization is 130.75 billion yuan, and the average total market capitalization is 304.40 billion yuan [71][75]. 3.2.3 Index Industry/Theme Characteristics - The index has a high concentration in the defense - military industry, with 98.02% of the weight belonging to this industry, mainly in the aviation equipment and military electronics sectors. Compared with comparable indices, it has the highest concentration in the military industry and a more prominent industry theme [80][81]. 3.2.4 Fundamental Characteristics - The index shows a high and steadily increasing R & D investment ratio, reaching 4.53% by the end of 2024. It has strong growth attributes and relatively stable profitability compared to comparable indices. Its net profit stability is the strongest since 2022 [83][87]. 3.2.5 Index Investment Value Analysis - It is a representative military - related index with a similar long - term trend to comparable indices. It shows high elasticity during market rebound periods, outperforming comparable military indices in terms of returns during several rebounds [88][90]. 3.3 Aerospace and Aviation ETF Tianhong (159241) - The fund was established on May 21, 2025, and listed on May 29, 2025. Managed by Mr. Sha Chuan and Mr. Qi Shichao, it closely tracks the Guozheng Aerospace and Aviation Industry Index, aiming to minimize tracking deviation and error. It has a management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10%. It has a relatively low discount rate and shows good performance in share growth and liquidity [94][95][96]. 3.4 Fund Manager and Fund Manager Information 3.4.1 Fund Manager Introduction - Tianhong Fund was established on November 8, 2004, and is a national public - offering fund management company. As of March 31, 2025, its total asset management scale is 124.3409 billion yuan, with 29 public - offering ETF products and a total ETF scale of 79.79 billion yuan [99]. 3.4.2 Fund Manager Introduction - Mr. Sha Chuan has 14 years of securities experience and manages 12 products with a total non - linked fund scale of 155.27 billion yuan. Mr. Qi Shichao has rich experience in Tianhong Fund and manages 17 products with a total non - linked fund scale of 203.69 billion yuan [100].