据易峯(EquitiesFirst)对于行业的走势分析和海外媒体报道的观察,鉴于泰国和马来西亚几乎没有降息空 间,且印度和菲律宾因政府借款成本上升而难以推行大规模财政刺激措施,企业也无法指望过多的公共部 门扶持。 不过,从更长远的角度来看,亚洲中小企业和中端市场企业的增长前景依然良好。易峯(EquitiesFirst)留意 到海外媒体报道的数据称,企业越来越多地在亚洲内部进行贸易:1990年至2023年,亚洲区内贸易额年均增 长8.2%,高于亚洲区外贸易额6.8%的增速。预计到2034年,亚太地区的中产阶级家庭数量将超过10亿。 据易峯(EquitiesFirst)观察到,在亚洲,着眼全球市场的进取型企业历来以银行为主要融资来源,但地缘政治 和贸易紧张局势预计将导致银行方面更为审慎。 其中,印度和印度尼西亚的融资增长正在放缓,评级机构对泰国及越南银行业的态度也趋于谨慎,尤其是在 美国关税对中国需求所造成影响的次级效应尚未显现的情况下。 因此,随着供应链的重新布局,企业将从"中国+1"战略中获益。对于能够应对未来数月由关税引发的商业 不确定性并最终获得回报的、运营良好的企业而言,它们亟需获得另类信贷。 易峯(E ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that Vietnam and the United States have reached a trade agreement, where Vietnam will reduce tariffs on U.S. imports to zero, while the U.S. will lower reciprocal tariffs to 20%, significantly less than the initially proposed 46% [1][2] - The agreement aims to curb the circumvention of U.S. tariffs by Chinese companies exporting through Vietnam, with a 40% tariff on products exported to the U.S. after being processed in Vietnam [1][2] - Vietnam's strategy is to maintain cost competitiveness as a candidate for foreign companies looking to relocate production bases from China under the "China+1" strategy [1] Group 2 - The agreement is seen positively by Vietnam, with local economists noting that a 20% tariff is acceptable compared to the initially expected higher rates [2] - The trade dynamics in Southeast Asia are varied, with countries like the Philippines benefiting from lower tariffs and increased foreign investment, while Thailand is lagging in negotiations with the U.S. [2] - Thailand is set to hold discussions with the U.S. to expand imports and enforce stricter origin certification, indicating a proactive approach to improve its trade position [2]

亚洲协会香港中心总裁孟淑娟发表欢迎致辞。她表示，今年是亚洲协会成立35周年，亚洲协会与中欧国际工商学院有 着高度契合的使命愿景，双方都致力于搭建连接中国与世界的交流平台，培养未来人才，促进多元文化背景下的相互 理解与合作。她强调，只有增进彼此沟通、加强相互了解，才能更好地应对复杂多变的全球性挑战。此次活动正是这 一共同使命的体现，也展现了中欧与亚洲协会在推动国际交流与教育合作方面的坚定承诺。 近日，2025第十届中欧思创会香港站举办。论坛以"全球经贸变局下的中国增长与湾区机遇"为主题，由中欧国际工商 学院主办，香港数码港、香港中国企业协会、亚洲协会香港中心、财新智库联合主办，并获得中欧国际工商学院深圳 校区、中欧校友会香港分会、香港英商会、澳洲会计师公会等机构的大力支持。本次论坛汇聚近300位全球政商学界 领袖，通过前沿洞察与战略对话，深度解析香港在国家发展战略中的独特定位，共同勾勒这座国际都市在不确定时代 的进阶蓝图。 中欧国际工商学院副院长兼教务长、治理与领导力教授、米其林治理与领导力教席教授濮方可（Frank Bournois）致欢 迎辞。他指出，37年前，中国正式启动"火炬计划"（China Torc ...

当前，全球经济秩序正经历重塑。在中美贸易博弈与技术创新浪潮之下，各国面临重大挑战。面对国际政经格局的加速演变，中国香港作为亚洲金融中心和 联通中外的超级枢纽，其始终是中国经济版图中的重要部分，与国家发展同频共振。技术突破、产业升级、逆周期战略转型等，是塑造中国经济新格局的核 心动能，也影响着未来香港在世界舞台上的角色。站在时代交汇点，香港在当前全球格局下的定位是什么？如何发挥其独特优势确保长期增长与韧性发展？ 深化大湾区科创协同及产业升级能否为香港培育新增长极？如何激发中国经济的增长新动能？ 6月12日，2025第十届中欧思创会香港站成功举办。论坛以"全球经贸变局下的中国增长与湾区机遇"为主题，由中欧国际工商学院主办，香港数码港、香港 中国企业协会、亚洲协会香港中心、财新智库联合主办，并获得中欧国际工商学院深圳校区、中欧校友会香港分会、香港英商会、澳洲会计师公会等机构的 大力支持。本次论坛汇聚近300位全球政商学界领袖，通过前沿洞察与战略对话，深度解析香港在国家发展战略中的独特定位，共同勾勒这座国际都市在不 确定时代的进阶蓝图。 中欧国际工商学院副院长兼教务长、治理与领导力教授、米其林治理与领导力教席教授濮方 ...

印度突然发难，且看特朗普如何接招！ 刚刚，路透社报道称，世界贸易组织（WTO）的一份通知显示，印度已提议对某些美国制造的产品征收进口 关税，以对抗华盛顿对亚洲第三大经济体生产的钢铁和铝产品征收的关税。 周一，中美达成协议，中美暂停"对等"与反制关税。这大幅缓解了两大贸易伙伴之间不断升级的贸易紧张局 势。 全球贸易研究倡议创始人斯里瓦斯塔瓦表示，这种转变可能会令"中国+1"战略受阻，该战略促使企业将制造业 转移到印度、越南和墨西哥。他在报告中指出："虽然低投资的装配业务目前可能在印度继续存在，但更深层 次的制造业——那种能够构建真正工业生态系统的制造业可能会停滞，甚至回归中国。投资者正在关注美国的 倾斜，除非印度能够锁定竞争优势，否则许多投资者将犹豫是否要投资。" 斯里瓦斯塔瓦认为，与美国达成一项明智的贸易协议，将有助于印度保留10%的关税，并防止特朗普新出台的 针对特定国家的关税税率上升至拟议的26%。但除了贸易政策之外，他还补充道，印度必须紧急削减生产成 本，改革物流，并提高监管的可预测性。他进一步建议，在未来的自由贸易协定谈判中，印度必须抵制在没有 获得有意义的互惠利益的情况下开放汽车和制药等敏感行业的压 ...

Core Insights - The report by KPMG China highlights that Chinese renewable energy companies face three main challenges when expanding into the European and American markets, including local barriers and policies, high entry costs, and insufficient local operational capabilities [1][2] Group 1: Market Opportunities - Europe is identified as the primary battleground for Chinese renewable energy companies due to its vast market and high profitability, particularly in solar and energy storage sectors [1] - The average price of energy storage systems in Europe is 1.2 RMB/Wh, significantly higher than the domestic average of 0.6-0.8 RMB/Wh, which is expected to attract more Chinese storage companies to Europe [1] Group 2: Driving Factors - Key driving factors for the European market include the acceleration of smart and digital upgrades in the power grid to accommodate clean energy, government incentives such as tax breaks and subsidies, and a high consumer willingness to pay for sustainable products [2] - The shift from "China +1" to "+N" strategy is recommended to mitigate systemic risks by diversifying production bases across Southeast Asia, Mexico, and Eastern Europe [3] Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - The report suggests four strategies for Chinese companies to address the challenges of going abroad: diversifying production locations, implementing a dual strategy of technology and brand development, vertically integrating the supply chain, and optimizing post-investment risk control systems [2][3] - Emphasizing core technology and brand building is crucial for establishing a high-quality brand image in the overseas market [3][4] Group 4: Industry Collaboration - Companies are encouraged to deepen their engagement in both vertical and horizontal dimensions of the supply chain, moving from manufacturing to service and consumption, particularly in large infrastructure projects like solar and wind farms [5] - Strengthening strategic partnerships with related industries and professional service providers is essential for navigating local regulations and enhancing operational stability in foreign markets [5]

Core Viewpoint - The impending tariffs on small packages from China are prompting fast fashion giant Shein to raise prices on its products sold in the U.S., indicating early signs of the trade war's impact on American consumers [1][2][3] Price Changes - Shein significantly increased prices across most product categories, with beauty and health items seeing an average price increase of 51% for the top 100 products, and some items doubling in price [1][2] - Home, kitchen goods, and toys experienced an average price increase of over 30%, with specific items like a 10-pack of kitchen paper towels rising from $1.28 to $6.10, a 377% increase [1][2] - Women's apparel saw an average price increase of 8% [1] Tariff Implications - The U.S. government is set to end the "de minimis" exemption for small packages from mainland China and Hong Kong, leading to potential tariffs of up to 120% on many products from e-commerce platforms like Shein and Temu [2][3] - Following the tariff changes, Shein's prices in the U.S. rose approximately 10% from April 24 to 26, with 30 out of 50 sampled products increasing by over 10% [3] Supply Chain Adjustments - To avoid tariffs, Shein has incentivized some Chinese suppliers to establish production bases in Vietnam, while Temu aims to ship products directly from Chinese factories to U.S. warehouses [3] - The trade war has led to a shift in sourcing, with companies moving production to Southeast Asia to mitigate tariff impacts, particularly affecting countries like Vietnam, Cambodia, and Bangladesh [5][9] Market Dynamics - The U.S. is the largest importer of apparel, with 97% of clothing and footwear sourced from overseas, making American consumers vulnerable to price increases due to tariffs [11] - Major fashion brands like Nike and Adidas are heavily reliant on Asian countries for production, with significant portions of their products sourced from Vietnam and Cambodia [12][13][14] Consumer Impact - A Yale University analysis predicts that consumer spending on footwear will increase by 87% and on apparel by 65% over the next three years due to tariffs, with long-term increases of 29% for footwear and 25% for apparel expected [15]

在4月9~12日在越南南部胡志明市举办的服装产业相关企业参加的展会"越南西贡纺织及制 衣工业展览会"上，不断有声音担忧关税影响。此次展会有来自25个国家和地区的约1100家企 业参加。 参展企业之一越南BAO MINH纺织的负责人无奈地叹息："关税真是个头疼的难题"。另一 家参展企业Hieuhaotex的CEO杜文芬（音译）表示："我们的主要客户在国内，不会直接受到 关税影响"，但同时警惕地指出："一旦高关税启动，失去市场的服装将会涌向国内市场，竞争 将会加剧" 。 在"越南西贡纺织及 制衣工业展览会（SaigonTex）"上，很多声音担忧关税问题（4月9日，胡志明市） 越南的服装产业乘上美国将生产基地分散到中国周边地区的"中国+1"浪潮，取得了增长。 2024年，越南的服装和鞋类出口额达到599亿美元，在10年时间里几乎翻了一番。美国是最大 的客户，占到4成…… 越南服装产业正受到美国特朗普政府对等关税的影响。越南被征收46%的高关税，比东南 亚其他国家都高，根据交易的进展，作为主要收入来源的对美国出口可能会大幅减少。越南 的经济增长和就业环境将不可避免受到打击。 越南的服装产业乘上美国将生产基地分散到中国 ...

泰国已成为分散中国生产基地的承接地（林查班港） 美国对越南、泰国等追加了高税率。对泰国追加36%的税率，高于对中国的34%。把生产基地分 散至中国周边地区的 "China Plus One"（中国+1） 战略正处于转折点…… 日本制造业把生产基地分散至中国周边地区的"China Plus One"（中国+1）战略正处于转折点。 原因在于，美国总统特朗普所公布的对等关税措施，对越南、泰国等东南亚国家追加了高税率。 此举令以自由贸易为前提的选址战略出现了误算。 卡西欧计算机在泰国工厂生产计算器和手表，在中国工厂生产乐器和手表，并向美国等地出货。 迄今为止，通过分散生产基地稳定了供应链。然而，由于美国政府在对等关税清单中，对泰国产 品追加36%的税率、对中国产品追加34%的税率，形势发生了剧变。 超过30%的税率已达到了作为加工贸易基地选址前提条件遭到破坏的水平。卡西欧的公关负责人 表示："不仅是泰国，还包括中国、日本，以及部分委托生产的东盟（ASEAN）国家在内，正考 虑在整体上重新分配生产基地"。 一家在泰国开展业务、并向美国出口部分高追加值产品的日资化学厂商的高管透露："正在与美方 客户企业讨论修改现有合同条 ...