Core Viewpoints - The central bank has removed the phrase "increase the implementation of incremental policies" and emphasized "ensuring the execution of various monetary policy measures to fully release policy effects," indicating that the phase of the most accommodative monetary policy has passed [3][6] - There is no strong necessity for interest rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions to stimulate credit, as previous credit flows have primarily gone to the production side, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances in a context of insufficient demand [3][6] - The behavior of small and medium-sized banks is noteworthy, with their bond investment accounting for approximately 52% of total fund utilization over the past year, compared to an average of about 25% from 2017 to 2022 [3][6] Summary of Changes and Continuities in Monetary Policy - In economic assessment, the phrase "China's economic risks and challenges" has been removed, reflecting a more optimistic view [5][12] - The policy tone has shifted to emphasize "maintaining continuity and stability in policies while enhancing flexibility and predictability," contrasting with previous statements that focused on utilizing existing policies and implementing new ones [5][12] - Specific policy details have been adjusted to focus on the execution of monetary policy measures and the release of policy effects, moving away from previous language about flexibility in policy implementation [5][12] - Structural tools have been reinforced to support small and micro enterprises and stabilize foreign trade, indicating a targeted approach to monetary policy [5][12] Understanding Current Monetary Policy - The assessment that the phase of the most accommodative monetary policy has passed is supported by three reasons: a focus on releasing prior policy effects, a lack of necessity for stimulating credit through rate cuts in the context of insufficient demand, and potential regulatory constraints on leveraging in the equity market [6][14] - Attention is drawn to the process of small and medium-sized banks focusing on their core responsibilities, with a significant increase in bond investments that may pose risks if not managed properly [6][15] - Structural tools for financial support should concentrate on technological innovation, boosting consumption, stabilizing foreign trade, and supporting small and micro enterprises, indicating a shift towards more targeted financial interventions [6][15]

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 充分释放政策效应——2025年三季度货币政 策委员会例会学习理解 事 项 9 月 26 日，央行发布 2025 年三季度货币政策委员会例会通稿，我们学习心得 如下。 核心观点 1、从表述上，央行删掉了"加力实施增量政策"的表述。并强调"抓好各项 货币政策措施执行，充分释放政策效应"。结合这一表述，我们仍然维持"货 币政策最宽松的阶段已过"的判断。 2、我们仍然认为当下降息降准刺激信贷的必要性不强。一方面，过去几年信 贷投放均流向生产侧，这反而加大供过于求的失衡程度，需求不足的情境下投 放信贷，实际上物价也很难回升。另一方面，权益市场偏强的背景下，监管部 门天然有抑制杠杆资金入市的诉求，叠加央行例会上"防范资金空转"的表述， 资金利率进一步下行的概率仍然偏低。 3、近期中小银行的行为值得关注。过去一年，中小银行的债券投资规模占其 总体资金运用的规模约为 52%，与之对比，2017 年~2022 年，该指标均值约为 25%左右。特别是 7 月 8 月中小银行的债券投资规模仍然维持高位。结合央行 在例会上"推动中小银行聚焦主责主业"的表述，后续中小银行的债券投资行 为 ...

Monetary Policy and Economic Support - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) reported that in the first half of 2025, new loans in RMB amounted to 12.92 trillion yuan, indicating strong credit support for the real economy [1] - Corporate loans accounted for 89.5% of all new loans, an increase of 6.6 percentage points compared to the same period last year, with major investments directed towards manufacturing and infrastructure [1] - The PBOC aims to maintain a moderately accommodative monetary policy, closely monitoring the transmission and effectiveness of previously implemented policies to better support domestic demand and stabilize market expectations [1][5] Financial Market Performance - As of June, the total social financing stock grew by 8.9% year-on-year, while the broad money supply (M2) increased by 8.3% and RMB loans rose by 7.1% [3] - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans was approximately 3.3%, down about 45 basis points from the previous year, while the rate for personal housing loans was around 3.1%, a decrease of about 60 basis points [3] - The financial market has shown resilience, maintaining stability in major financial markets despite significant changes in the external environment [4] Future Monetary Policy Directions - The PBOC plans to enhance the execution and supervision of interest rate policies, ensuring that monetary policy measures effectively support the real economy [5][6] - The focus will be on improving financial services for key areas such as technological innovation, consumption expansion, and support for small and micro enterprises [5] - The PBOC will continue to strengthen market monitoring and risk management tools to prevent financial market risks, particularly concerning the bond investments of small and medium-sized banks [7] Exchange Rate Policy - The PBOC maintains a clear stance that China does not seek to gain international competitive advantages through currency depreciation, emphasizing the importance of market forces in exchange rate formation [2][8] - The recent appreciation of the RMB against the USD, alongside a stable overall exchange rate, reflects a solid domestic economic foundation [8] - Factors influencing the exchange rate include economic growth, monetary policy, and geopolitical risks, with the PBOC committed to maintaining a stable RMB at a reasonable equilibrium level [8][9] Support for Small and Micro Enterprises - The PBOC is focused on enhancing the financial support system for private and small enterprises, promoting reasonable growth in inclusive loans [12] - As of May, the balance of inclusive micro and small loans reached 34.42 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.6% [13] - The average interest rates for newly issued inclusive loans and private enterprise loans have decreased compared to the previous year, indicating improved financing conditions [13]