文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 文若愚（微信 LRsuperdope） 事项 9 月 26 日，央行发布 2025 年三季度货币政策委员会例会通稿，我们学习心得如下。 核心观点 1 、从表述上，央行删掉了"加力实施增量政策"的表述。并强调"抓好各项货币政策措施执行，充分释放政 策效应"。结合这一表述，我们仍然维持"货币政策最宽松的阶段已过"的判断。 2 、我们仍然认为当下降息降准刺激信贷的必要性不强。一方面，过去几年信贷投放均流向生产侧，这反而 加大供过于求的失衡程度，需求不足的情境下投放信贷，实际上物价也很难回升。另一方面，权益市场偏 强的背景下，监管部门天然有抑制杠杆资金入市的诉求，叠加央行例会上"防范资金空转"的表述，资金利率 进一步下行的概率仍然偏低。 3 、近期中小银行的行为值得关注。过去一年，中小银行的债券投资规模占其总体资金运用的规模约为 52% ，与之对比， 2017 年 ~2022 年，该指标均值约为 25% 左右。特别是 7 月 8 月中小银行的债券投资 规模仍然维持高位。结合央行在例会上"推动中小银行聚焦主责主业" ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the successful recovery and transformation of the tourism market, emphasizing the importance of understanding visitor needs and innovating product offerings to remain competitive in the industry [5]. Group 1: Company Performance - The "Cloud Flower Garden" event held in March attracted over 200,000 additional visitors to the Shandong Wenlv Hongye Shiyan Tourism Area, showcasing the effectiveness of targeted marketing strategies [3]. - The scenic area received 670,000 visitors in the first half of the year, surpassing 800,000 by mid-August, with 30%-40% of visitors coming from outside the province, indicating a growing brand influence and market reach [7]. Group 2: Financial Support - The company secured a short-term working capital loan of 9.5 million yuan from Qishang Bank, which played a crucial role in addressing liquidity challenges and supporting operational stability [3][5]. - The bank's loan was described as a vital financial link that enabled the company to respond to immediate challenges and seize market opportunities effectively [5]. Group 3: Market Trends - The tourism industry is undergoing rapid changes due to evolving consumer habits and economic conditions, presenting both opportunities and challenges for cultural tourism enterprises [5]. - The company recognizes the need for small, refined product investments that align with the preferences of younger consumers, particularly during the off-peak season from November to February [5].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has implemented a 500 billion yuan policy tool for service consumption and elderly care, which has rapidly facilitated loans to various projects, enhancing financial support for key sectors and stimulating consumption and the silver economy [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Implementation and Impact - The service consumption and elderly care re-loan policy has been effectively launched, with significant loans such as 1.2 billion yuan issued to support elderly care services, demonstrating its timely impact on enhancing service levels [2]. - Financial institutions are actively engaging with enterprises to understand their needs and provide tailored financial solutions, leading to successful loan disbursements that support infrastructure and service upgrades in the elderly care sector [2][3]. - The policy covers multiple key areas, including accommodation, dining, culture, sports, education, and elderly care, indicating a broad scope of financial support [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Support Mechanism - The re-loan mechanism is designed to provide low-cost financing to commercial banks, enabling them to offer targeted support to the service consumption and elderly care sectors, thus enhancing the effectiveness of monetary policy [2][5]. - The policy aims to leverage low-cost funds to attract social capital into the service consumption and elderly care industries, creating a financial support chain that optimizes supply and expands consumption [5]. Group 3: Innovation and Risk Management - The introduction of the re-loan tool aligns with trends in consumption upgrading and population aging, emphasizing the need for product innovation and robust risk management to ensure sustainable industry growth [6]. - Experts suggest that banks should develop specialized credit systems and collaborative mechanisms with government and industry platforms to mitigate risks associated with individual projects [7]. - There is a call for banks to design scenario-based products and utilize digital risk control methods to enhance funding efficiency and improve post-loan management quality [7].