2025 年 12 月 15 日 内外政策与南北美产地博弈加剧 ---2026 年美豆期货分析展望 报告导读： 从新周期的定价框架来看，全球大豆价格的驱动逻辑已从"单一主产种植利润主导"转向"多极因 子协同共振"，核心驱动维度呈现三大转变：一是供给端从"美豆单一供给"转向"全球主产区产能互 补"，南美天气扰动、美豆种植进度、中美大豆贸易流量等多区域供需变量形成联动；二是流通端从 "CBOT 定价"转向"区域分化"，巴西物流效率、巴拿马运河通行成本、各国贸易关税政策等成为价格 区域传导的关键变量；三是需求端从"饲用需求单一拉动"转向"多场景需求分化"，生物柴油政策驱动 的工业需求、饲用消费的区域结构变化、高蛋白大豆的定制化需求等，赋予价格更强的结构性波动特 征。在此框架下，美豆已从全球大豆价格的"制定者"退化为"参与者"，其国内供需仅为全球多因子体 系中的重要变量而非决定性因素。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 谢义钦 从业资格号：Z0017082 xieyiqin@gtht.com | 1. 2025 ...

Group 1 - The current market sentiment is improving, largely influenced by Trump's softened stance on China, with potential visits to China in early 2024 [3] - The U.S. strategy is shifting from direct confrontation to a more conciliatory approach, while still applying targeted pressure on strategic industries [3] - The market has largely priced in the positive sentiment from Trump's recent comments, raising concerns about potential overextension [3][4] Group 2 - Investors are questioning the possibility of further unexpected positive developments, particularly looking towards the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting for potential rate cuts [4] - The market is anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut, which may not provide the expected excitement or momentum for further market breakthroughs [4] - The interconnectedness of U.S. and Chinese stock markets, especially in the tech sector, suggests that any downturn in U.S. markets could also negatively impact A-shares [4]

Group 1 - The article highlights the escalating "rare earth storm" in the context of US-China relations, suggesting that the US's cooperative facade masks its true hostility towards China [1] - China's export of rare earth magnets surged to 5,577 tons in July, a nearly 70% month-on-month increase, with the US becoming one of the largest buyers, indicating a potential for improved bilateral relations [1] - Despite China's efforts to meet US demand for rare earth resources, the US responded with accusations and derogatory remarks towards China, reflecting a deep-seated fear of China's rise [1][2] Group 2 - The US has intensified scrutiny of Chinese students, particularly those in semiconductor, AI, and aerospace fields, leading to unreasonable interrogations and violations of their rights [4] - The US Treasury recently imposed sanctions on two Chinese companies for allegedly facilitating oil transport for Iran, which China condemned as a violation of international law [5] - The article argues that the US's strategic positioning against China remains unchanged, viewing China as a primary strategic competitor rather than a partner [5] Group 3 - The article suggests that the future of US-China relations will involve increasingly complex competition, with the US continuing to exert pressure despite any superficial warmth [7] - It emphasizes that China is no longer the same as it was a century ago and expresses confidence in its ability to defend its interests against US pressures [7]