随着美股几乎所有主要估值模型都发出"严重高估"的预警，分析师现在开始担忧，俄乌和平协议的利好消息，可能成为引发"利好出尽"抛售的导火索。 周期性调整市盈率（CAPE Ratio）：该比率目前徘徊在35倍左右，同样高于历史均值两个标准差。此前仅在1929年和2000年达到过这 一区间，而这两个时期均以市场崩盘告终。 据央视新闻，当地时间8月18日周一下午，特朗普在白宫会见泽连斯基时表示，如果一切顺利，他们将举行美俄乌三边会谈。他相信俄罗斯总统普京希 望这场战争结束，美国将与乌克兰及其他各方合作，确保和平持续。 市场担忧，一旦和平协议的预期被完全消化，市场将缺乏新的上涨动力。正如新冠疫情期间所展示的，市场反弹的核心动力是美联储注入的巨额流动 性，而非经济自身的健康状况。因此，当下的核心问题是，在地缘政治这张牌打完之后，还有什么能够支撑起当前已然过高的估值水平？ 美股几乎所有主要估值模型目前都发出"严重高估"的预警。截至6月30日的数据显示，巴菲特指标、CAPE比率、市销率等关键估值指标均超出长期均 值两至三个标准差，达到1929年、2000年和2021年等历史泡沫水平。历史上，当市场达到上述估值高位后，随后都出现 ...

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup analysts have exited their long position on EUR/USD at a stop-loss of 1.1540, resulting in a loss of 1.3% including interest, attributing the recent pullback to position squeeze following the EU trade agreement announcement [1] Group 1 - Analysts Daniel Tobon, Osamu Takashima, and Brian Levine established the position at 1.1680 on July 11, with a target price of 1.20 [1] - The analysts believe that if the US dollar continues to weaken in Q3, it is more likely to be driven by soft labor market data from the US [1] - Despite the forced exit from the position, the analysts are looking to rebuild their short position on the dollar before the US employment data is released on Friday, potentially against the euro or Swiss franc [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy measures from the National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission are seen as long-term benefits for the innovative drug sector, although there may be short-term profit-taking effects following the initial market reactions to the policy [3][4]. Group 1: Policy Measures - The policy includes 16 measures across five areas to support the development of innovative drugs, such as enhancing R&D support and integrating innovative drugs into insurance coverage [3]. - Key points include using healthcare data to improve R&D efficiency, establishing a commercial insurance directory for innovative drugs, and exploring temporary inclusion of essential innovative drugs in insurance coverage during public health emergencies [3]. Group 2: Market Performance - The Hong Kong innovative drug index saw a significant increase of 54.78% in the first half of the year, leading to concerns about the sustainability of this growth [4]. - Following the policy announcement, many innovative drug stocks experienced gains exceeding 10%, but subsequent profit-taking led to a market correction [3][4]. Group 3: ETF Overview - There are 20 ETFs tracking indices related to innovative drugs, with the largest being the GF Fund's Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF, which has a scale of 138.51 billion [5][7]. - The management fees for the innovative drug ETFs vary, with the lowest being 0.15% for certain funds [5][7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The innovative drug industry is expected to transition from capital-driven growth to profit-driven growth by 2025, presenting opportunities for both performance and valuation recovery [5][8].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a volatile adjustment this week, with major indices recording negative returns, indicating a "strong large, weak small" pattern[11] - The North Star 50 index saw a significant drop of 3.68% after reaching a historical high earlier in the week, confirming the anticipated "active adjustment" phase[58] Sector Performance - The dividend style sectors outperformed overall, with the healthcare and automotive industries rising by 1.92% and 1.80% respectively, while technology and growth sectors continued to weaken, with declines of 3.00% in computing and 2.10% in electronics[12][59] - Among the 30 sectors, 9 increased and 21 decreased, highlighting the dominance of dividend styles[12] Market Sentiment and Capital Flow - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets decreased to 1.14 trillion yuan, down from 1.23 trillion yuan the previous week[19] - Financing buy-in ratio fell to 8.22%, with a net outflow of 11.3 billion yuan from stock ETFs this week[27] Economic Influences - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) was lowered by 10 basis points, with the one-year LPR now at 3.00% and the five-year LPR at 3.50%, aimed at reducing loan costs and stimulating economic growth[54] - The U.S. 20-year Treasury yield exceeded 5%, impacting market risk appetite negatively[56] Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue its adjustment phase, with the Shanghai Composite Index's gap from April 10 (3186-3201 points) serving as a key technical support level[60] - Investment strategy suggests reallocating from high-rebound technology and growth sectors to relatively stable large financial and dividend sectors to manage portfolio volatility[61]