稀土是高科技和军工产业的核心材料，从手机电池、电动车电机，到导弹导航系统，都离不开它。而中国掌握了全球九成以上的加工能力，美国对中国稀土 的依赖非常高。2025年上半年，中美贸易摩擦升级，美国加征关税，中国随即采取稀土出口管制措施。从4月开始，针对七种关键稀土元素，出口必须申请 许可证，这一举措直接导致全球供应链紧张，许多汽车厂的生产线被迫停工。 到了10月9日，中国商务部出台新规，规定只要产品中含有0.1%以上的中国稀土成分，就必须申请出口许可。这一措施针对的是高科技产品，相当于直接卡 住了美国的关键供应链。美国股市因此波动，相关企业纷纷叫苦。特朗普政府急忙寻找对话机会，10月30日在韩国釜山，中美领导人举行会晤，讨论暂停对 抗的方案。中国同意推迟新规的实施，并发放一般出口许可证，使稀土、镓、锗等材料能够供应给美国终端用户和供应商。这消息一出，美国市场松了口 气，以为供应链问题得到缓解。 之所以如此严格，是因为稀土不仅用于民用，还涉及国防，美国军工产业大量依赖稀土合金，导弹、战机、雷达等设备都离不开它。中国强调，这套制度是 为了保护供应链安全，防止资源被用于破坏和平的用途，符合国际贸易惯例，并非一刀切。商务 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's rare earth magnet exports to the US in October reached 656 tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, indicating a potential diplomatic gesture ahead of the US-China summit [2][4]. Group 1: Export Data - In October, China's total rare earth magnet exports amounted to 5,473 tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.8% [4]. - The largest increase in exports was to Germany, which saw a 55.9% rise to 1,118 tons, while exports to the US ranked second [4]. - Exports to Japan increased by 30.2% to 226 tons, although the overall export of semi-finished products like magnetic powder and alloys fell by 18.3% to 538 tons [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - China's rare earth production accounts for 70% of the global market, with over 80% of rare earth magnets produced in the country [5]. - The export volume to the US is expected to drop significantly by May 2025, with only 46 tons projected, compared to over 400 tons monthly in 2024 [4]. - The increase in exports in October may be a strategic move to facilitate negotiations during the US-China summit [4].

#数据 中国10月份稀土磁铁出口5473吨，环比下降5.2%，连续第二个月下降，对美国的出口量却环比飙升56.1%至1月份以来最高水平。10月中国稀土磁铁出口量排名前五的目的地分别是德国、美国、韩国、越南和印度。 https://t.co/ZMysJYKFNV ...

倒推原因，其实绕不开一个核心问题——全球范围内，目前能够稳定、规模化出口高质量 稀土材料的 主要还是中国。虽然美国这些年不断砸钱搞研发，也试图扶持本国企业，但想短期内实现完全替代，并 不现实。所以，在战略资源上被卡住脖子的焦虑，总是挥之不去。 再往深处看，美国提出要和中国敲定保障性条款，无非就是给自己的供应链加上一层保险。如果未来某 一天发生摩擦，只要有纸面承诺做挡箭牌，美方就可以借机发起舆论攻势，对外甩锅。而且只要自己觉 得哪里吃亏了，随时能搬出合约当理由。这类操作套路并不罕见，但对于拥有实际主导权的一方来说， 该怎么选择主动权，可不是一句威胁能决定的。 值得注意的是，中国出台的是出口管制政策，而非直接禁运。只要采购申请符合条件，大多数时候都能 顺利获批。从这个角度讲，美方如此紧张地追求一份额外协定，更像是担心自身行为越界，被突然断供 打个措手不及。在这种微妙关系下，每一次谈判桌上的表态，都不仅仅关乎经济账单，还涉及双方彼此 间极为敏感的信息博弈。 美财长感恩节前急盼稀土协议，威胁中国不许变卦，美国底气何在？ 美国财政部长贝森特最近动作频频，一边跑到本国新开的 稀土矿物加工中心剪彩，宣称"我们要结束对 中国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the paradox of the U.S. striving for independence from China in rare earth production while facing significant supply chain challenges, particularly in consumer goods like Christmas trees, which are heavily reliant on Chinese imports [1][10][24]. Group 1: Rare Earth Industry - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra announced the production of the first domestically made rare earth magnet in 25 years, attributing this achievement to previous government policies aimed at reducing reliance on China [3][12]. - Despite the announcement, the U.S. still lacks the necessary technology and infrastructure for large-scale rare earth production, with 80% of global processing capacity and 90% of magnet production still in China [12][16]. - The U.S. faces a long road ahead to achieve self-sufficiency in rare earths, with significant cost implications, as Chinese rare earth prices are approximately 25% lower [17][24]. Group 2: Consumer Goods and Supply Chain - The U.S. imports 90% of its Christmas goods from China, particularly from Yiwu, which has started redirecting its products to the EU due to high tariffs imposed by the U.S. [7][10]. - U.S. Christmas tree imports dropped by 58% in August and 70% in September compared to the previous year, leading to skyrocketing prices for consumers [7][10]. - The tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have significantly increased costs for American consumers, with a Christmas tree that originally cost $1,000 now potentially costing $2,000 [10][19]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The tariffs have resulted in an estimated additional annual expenditure of about $800 per American household due to inflation caused by these trade policies [17][19]. - The article emphasizes that the push for "decoupling" from China has led to unintended consequences, affecting everyday consumers rather than achieving the intended political victories [24][25]. - The U.S. is caught in a structural anxiety, wanting to develop high-end industries while still relying on low-end manufacturing from China, highlighting the complexity of the supply chain dynamics [24][25].

面对这一现实，欧盟多次尝试通过"威胁与报复"的手段来施压中国。例如，他们曾考虑对中国实行所谓的"实物关税"，要求中国 出口商向欧盟提供关键原材料，或者启动《反胁迫工具》，甚至对中国产品加征特别关税等。然而，至今这些方案都没有真正付 诸实施，因为欧盟发现，威胁根本没有效果，若实施制裁，不仅无法伤害中国，反而会损害自身经济。因此，欧盟已经向布鲁塞 尔27国大使通报，表示相关措施仍在商讨阶段，尚未出台任何实质性行动。 在关键稀土出口管制问题上，欧盟最终承认了自己的无力，意识到在短期内无法迫使中国改变其已确定的政策。这一结论不仅揭 示了欧盟策略的失败，也表明全球产业链的格局正在发生深刻变化。 今年4月，中国对一些重要稀土元素实施了出口限制，这引发了欧洲多个行业的警觉，尤其是汽车、电动机、风电和国防制造等领 域。根据欧元区央行的一份专题报告显示，4月以来，中国稀土磁铁的出口量下降了约75%，这让许多欧洲厂商不得不减产或暂停 生产。 彭博社还指出，欧盟内部的高级官员已经私下向各成员国表示："我们目前无法在短期内对中国的稀土管控政策施加影响。" 与此同时，中国在全球稀土开采与深加工领域的主导地位变得更加明显：全球95%以上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen regarding the production of rare earth magnets is seen as a significant political statement rather than a substantial shift in the global rare earth market, particularly in relation to China's dominance in this sector [1][4]. Group 1: U.S. Rare Earth Production - The rare earth magnet production facility inspected by Yellen is primarily funded by a German company and focuses on producing neodymium-iron-boron magnets, which are considered low-end permanent materials [1][2]. - The U.S. still relies heavily on China for most of the components needed for this production, indicating that achieving complete independence in the rare earth sector is a challenging task [1][2]. Group 2: Historical Context and Market Dynamics - Historically, the U.S. led in rare earth extraction technology until the discovery of rich deposits in China in 1969 and the development of cost-effective extraction methods in the 1980s, which shifted the global landscape [2]. - Currently, China accounts for over 80% of global rare earth processing capacity and more than 90% of magnet production, making it difficult for the U.S. to significantly alter this balance [2]. Group 3: Political Implications - The timing of Yellen's announcement coincided with political pressures on the Trump administration, which had recently paused investigations and tariffs against China, suggesting that the declaration was aimed at boosting domestic morale [4][5]. - The production of rare earth magnets in the U.S. is heavily dependent on orders from General Motors, which was facing layoffs and declining production, further complicating the outlook for the U.S. rare earth industry [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - For the U.S. to effectively compete in the rare earth sector, it must address structural issues such as a shortage of technical talent and the hollowing out of its manufacturing base [5]. - The ongoing competition between the U.S. and China in the rare earth sector is expected to deepen, with China focusing on technological innovation and expanding its production capabilities across various magnet types [5].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of the first domestically produced rare earth magnet in the U.S. in 25 years is portrayed as a significant achievement, but it is largely seen as a political maneuver rather than a true industrial breakthrough [1][3][5]. Industry Analysis - The complete rare earth industry chain includes mining, smelting, separation, purification of rare earth oxides, and production of high-performance magnets, which requires mature technology, stable production capacity, and specialized talent [3]. - Currently, China dominates the global rare earth processing capabilities, holding over 80% of the market and more than 90% of magnet production capacity, a result of decades of industry development [3]. - The only U.S. rare earth mine in development, Mountain Pass, has a reserve of only 1.4 million tons, representing just 1.3% of global reserves, and primarily consists of light rare earths, lacking the heavy rare earths critical for military and high-end electronics [3][5]. - The U.S. has long relied on Chinese technology for smelting and separation, and prior to Chinese export controls, U.S. mined rare earths were sent to China for processing [3]. Cost and Competitive Landscape - Rare earth mining and processing are characterized as labor-intensive and environmentally challenging, with significant capital investment required for compliance with environmental standards [5]. - Without substantial government subsidies, U.S. rare earth products lack competitiveness in the market, while China can achieve economies of scale due to its complete supply chain and established technology [5]. - Experts estimate that establishing a fully independent rare earth supply chain in the U.S. could take at least 10 years, which is beyond the current administration's term [5]. Political Context - The announcement of the rare earth magnet coincides with the upcoming midterm elections, suggesting a political motive to showcase achievements and bolster support for the current administration [5]. - The U.S. government's emphasis on this development is seen as an attempt to distract from other domestic issues and to reinforce the narrative of "American resurgence" [5][7]. - China's export controls on rare earths are framed as a means to regulate industry development and ensure global supply chain stability, contrasting with the U.S. approach of unilateral restrictions [7]. Strategic Implications - The U.S. effort to challenge China's dominance in the rare earth sector is viewed as unrealistic given the significant technological and industrial gaps that have developed over decades [7]. - A sustainable approach to developing the U.S. rare earth industry would require respecting industry dynamics and fostering international cooperation rather than relying on political rhetoric [7].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Becerra, expressed optimism about achieving self-sufficiency in rare earth production within two years, claiming that China's influence in this sector will diminish. However, experts are skeptical about this timeline, suggesting that the development of a new rare earth supply chain is a lengthy and complex process [1][3][5]. Group 1: U.S. Rare Earth Industry Developments - Becerra visited a newly established rare earth processing facility in South Carolina, highlighting the production of the first rare earth magnets in the U.S. in 25 years, which are crucial for the supply chain [3]. - The U.S. has been actively seeking to reduce its dependence on Chinese rare earths, particularly following the challenges faced during the trade war initiated by the Trump administration [3][5]. - The U.S. government is pursuing international partnerships to secure rare earth supplies, including agreements with countries like Pakistan, Australia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Cambodia [3][5]. Group 2: Challenges in Achieving Self-Sufficiency - Experts, including Eurasia Group's head, have criticized Becerra's two-year timeline as unrealistic, emphasizing the lengthy and risky nature of developing new rare earth mines, which typically takes between six to eighteen years [5][6]. - Environmental regulations and operational costs are significant hurdles, as demonstrated by Lynas, the largest rare earth producer outside China, which has faced increased costs due to wastewater management and environmental permits [6]. - Even with substantial investment in new mining and processing facilities, the U.S. will struggle to compete with China's price advantages, which have historically deterred U.S. companies from pursuing rare earth projects due to profitability concerns [8].

关于美国稀土技术突然实现"突破"这件事。 当地时间11月7日，美政长贝森特亲自走访了一家，刚刚投产的稀土磁体加工中心，并当场宣布，美国制造出"25年来首块本土稀土磁铁"。 这一动作，被美方高调称为"美国再次获得独立，意图摆脱对中国的稀土依赖。 随后，美国媒体争相报道，特朗普团队则趁势发声，将这项成果归功于其执政时期"重振制造业"的政策。 白宫、国会、媒体、企业一齐上阵，试图打造一个"美国稀土产业全面崛起"的舆论场。 但真相真的如此吗？美国真的能这么快实现稀土独立？ 美国造出稀土磁铁 2022年11月，eVAC Magnetics公司在拜登政府任内完成注册，这家企业的方向，就是打造美国本土的稀土磁体产业链，随后三年，项目不断推进，获得政策 支持与资金投入，逐步建设起稀土矿物加工中心。 到了2025年初，美国政坛出现一次关键转折，特朗普在竞选压力下，签署了一项名为"国家紧急能源"的行政命令，专门针对能源与关键矿产领域发力。 文件中明确提到，要优先发展稀土产业，为企业提供土地、监管豁免等便利条件。 政策一出，资本迅速跟进，eVAC项目加快了进度，南卡罗来纳州的新项目也被列入重点工程，贝森特此次视察的加工中心，正是该 ...