Group 1 - Bond traders are awaiting the release of key economic data that will strengthen market expectations for the Federal Reserve's future interest rate cuts [2] - U.S. Treasury prices have seen their largest increase since 2020, driven by rate cut expectations [2] - The end of the U.S. government shutdown will lead to the release of delayed economic reports, including September employment data [2] Group 2 - During the government shutdown, the absence of official data made it difficult to assess economic trends, although private sector data indicated weakness [2] - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate twice in September and October, ending a nine-month period of holding rates steady [2] - There is a risk of stronger-than-expected official data, which could lead policymakers to maintain interest rates at the December meeting [2] Group 3 - China’s two-year government bond yield is at 1.43%, while the ten-year yield is at 1.81% [7] - The U.S. two-year government bond yield has risen by 4 basis points to 3.62%, and the ten-year yield has increased by 3 basis points to 4.14% [7] Group 4 - Huaxia Happiness has received a notice regarding a pre-restructuring application from creditor Longcheng Construction, with significant uncertainty about the court's acceptance of the application [3] - Taihe Group announced a loan extension with Tianjin Bank, providing a guarantee for its subsidiary's obligations, with a maximum guarantee amount of 239 million yuan [3] - Poly Development has updated the status of its 15 billion yuan public bond project to "submitted for registration" [3]

Economic Outlook - Economists have raised their forecasts for U.S. economic growth for this year and next, with GDP expected to grow by 1.8% in 2023, up from a previous estimate of 1.3% [2] - The upward revision is primarily due to significantly improved expectations for business investment [2] - The U.S. economy is projected to grow at a similar pace in 2026 [2] Employment Trends - The average monthly job growth in the U.S. is now expected to be 60,000 for this year, down from a prior forecast of 87,000 [2] - Recent months have shown a notable slowdown in job growth, prompting the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in September [2] - Economists anticipate another 25 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve this year, followed by a total of 75 basis points in cuts by 2026 [2] Inflation Expectations - The NABE group expects U.S. inflation to remain above the Federal Reserve's 2% target until next year [2] - The year-on-year increase in the PCE price index is projected to decline from 3% this year to 2.5% by the end of 2026 [2] Trade and Economic Policy - The economic outlook has been complicated by significant and frequently changing policy measures from the Trump administration, particularly regarding tariffs [2] - The impact of tariffs on inflation has been slower and more moderate than many economists had anticipated [2]