Economic Outlook - Economists have raised their forecasts for U.S. economic growth for this year and next, with GDP expected to grow by 1.8% in 2023, up from a previous estimate of 1.3% [2] - The upward revision is primarily due to significantly improved expectations for business investment [2] - The U.S. economy is projected to grow at a similar pace in 2026 [2] Employment Trends - The average monthly job growth in the U.S. is now expected to be 60,000 for this year, down from a prior forecast of 87,000 [2] - Recent months have shown a notable slowdown in job growth, prompting the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in September [2] - Economists anticipate another 25 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve this year, followed by a total of 75 basis points in cuts by 2026 [2] Inflation Expectations - The NABE group expects U.S. inflation to remain above the Federal Reserve's 2% target until next year [2] - The year-on-year increase in the PCE price index is projected to decline from 3% this year to 2.5% by the end of 2026 [2] Trade and Economic Policy - The economic outlook has been complicated by significant and frequently changing policy measures from the Trump administration, particularly regarding tariffs [2] - The impact of tariffs on inflation has been slower and more moderate than many economists had anticipated [2]