北京时间午间，外汇交易屏幕上那行数字突然跳出6.9973，整个交易室里像被悄然拉紧了弦，几位交易员抬头互相交换眼色，没人先说话，这里是汇率的前 线，也是利润与成本的分水岭。 12月以来，在岸和离岸人民币都已有约1%的升值，数字不大，但对于进出口企业来说，这1%是在账本上能看见的利润被吞掉或者成本被压缩的实感，货柜 场里长着的是订单，表格里长着的是终局。 年底结汇的季节性因素更像一阵推风，很多出口商积累了外币头寸，需要在年终把账面变成本币以美化报表或满足流动性，这些结汇需求碰上美元回落，就 形成了合力推高人民币的机制。 交易室外的咖啡厅里，一位外贸公司财务经理打开手机里的ERP系统，屏幕显示的是近三个月的结汇计划，数额并不夸张，但时间点几乎同步，大家都在跑 同一条时间线，这种同步性就是市场的共振。 回到市场现场，交易员会把这些宏观变量压缩为一个个可执行的判断，是否提前对冲、期权如何设计、期货头寸如何匹配，企业的风控能力在此刻变得比抱 怨更重要，这是市场教过无数次的课。 技术上讲，汇率突破整数关口会触发心理效应，做市商和投机盘会依据突破调整仓位，王青所言的"情绪叠加技术"在此时转换成了资金流，越多人相信升 值，越 ...

来源：@经济观察报微博 北京时间12月25日11时45分，离岸人民币对美元汇率报6.9973，较前一交易日上涨103个基点，正式升破"7"整数关口，为2024年10月以来首次。12月以 来，在岸与离岸人民币对美元均升值约1.0%，市场普遍认为，人民币正加速重返"6时代"。这一变化不仅关乎宏观金融指标，更直接作用于亿万居民的消 费成本与企业的经营利润。 | 美元兑离岸人民币 | | | | 디 Q | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | USDCNH | | | | | | 今开 6.9963 | | 7.0072 | 最高 | 7.0108 | | 昨收 -0.16% -0.0113 | | 7.0076 | 最低 | 6.9941 | | 点差 10日 | 0 | -0.78% | 60日 | -1.91% | | 振幅 20日 | 0.24% | -1.10% | 今年来 | -4.64% | | 分时 五日 日K 周K 月K 更多, | | | | 105 | | 7.0211 | | | 0.19% 卖出 (ask) | | | | | | 买入 (bid) | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights significant fluctuations in the foreign exchange market, particularly the decline of the US dollar and the rise of the Chinese yuan, alongside Moody's decision to maintain China's sovereign credit rating, which has drawn market attention [1][9]. Currency Market Dynamics - On May 26, the US dollar index fell to 98.6921, marking a three-week low, while both onshore and offshore yuan appreciated, with the offshore yuan (CNH) breaking the 7.17 mark, reaching a high of 7.16155, the highest since December 2024 [1][3]. - The offshore yuan has seen a decline of over 2500 basis points in just over a month, influenced by concerns over the US's dual deficits following Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 [6]. Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes indicated a "hawkish wait-and-see" stance, pushing back rate cut expectations to September, while disappointing durable goods orders data led to short-term profit-taking on the dollar [8]. - Goldman Sachs' forex strategy team suggests that if the dollar index continues to decline, the yuan may test the 7.15 resistance level, but the second half of the year will depend on the divergence in monetary policies between China and the US [8]. Government and Economic Response - Moody's maintained China's sovereign credit rating at "A1" but kept the outlook negative, citing structural challenges in economic growth, including real estate adjustments and local debt risks. However, short-term fiscal stimulus and central bank support provide a buffer [9]. - The Chinese Ministry of Finance responded positively to Moody's decision, highlighting the government's macroeconomic policies since last year's fourth quarter, which have led to improved economic indicators and enhanced market confidence [9].

Group 1: Impact Mechanisms on Gold Prices - The decline in real interest rates due to interest rate cuts enhances the attractiveness of gold as a zero-yield asset, typically leading to price increases [1] - The release of long-term liquidity, estimated at 1 trillion yuan, may partially flow into the commodity market, including gold, with historical data showing strong gold performance during periods of monetary easing [2] - A depreciation of the RMB due to interest rate cuts could lead to a passive increase in gold prices denominated in RMB, as seen during the RMB depreciation in 2020 [3] - Easing monetary policy may stimulate economic demand and, combined with supply chain pressures, could elevate inflation, increasing the demand for gold as an inflation hedge [4] Group 2: Historical Case Studies - In 2015, following five interest rate cuts by the People's Bank of China, the price of Au9999 on the Shanghai Gold Exchange rose by 6.3%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 14.3%, indicating a shift of risk-averse funds towards gold [5] - In 2020, amid a global easing trend with the Federal Reserve cutting rates to zero and implementing unlimited quantitative easing, international gold prices surged by 25%, reaching a historical high [6] Group 3: Current Market Specificities - The divergence in monetary policies between the US and China, with the Fed maintaining high rates while China cuts rates, may exacerbate RMB depreciation pressure, potentially widening domestic gold premiums [7] - Geopolitical risks, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East, are creating a resonance between risk aversion and monetary easing, further supporting gold demand [8] - The recent rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions are favorable for gold, but external policies and geopolitical risks should be monitored [9]