同日，穆迪国际信用评级公司对中国主权信用评级的维持决定及财政部的回应，也成为市场关注焦点。 / / 美元跳水，人民币强势突破 / / 5 月 26 日，美元指数盘中跳水至 98.6921 ，创三周以来的最低水平。 受美元走软影响，在岸、离岸人民币汇率双双上扬，离岸人民币（ CNH ）一度升破 7.17 关口，盘中最高触及 7.16155 元，创 2024 年 12 月以来新高。 | W | | | 美元兑离岸人民币 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | USDCNH.FX | | | | | | | | 前收 | 7.17220 | 开营 | | | 7.17280 | | | +0.07% | 季田 | 7.17761 | 买入 | | | 7.17700 | | 最高 | 7.18301 | 今年来 | -2.18% | 20 | | | -1.48% | | 最低 | 7.16155 | 10 日 | -0.31% | 60 | 日 | | -1.72% | | से में ब्र | 五日 | 日K | ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold has rebounded, and attention should be paid to the continued rise of the gold - silver ratio. Gold is relatively strong, and silver is neutral. The price ranges are 760 - 800 yuan/gram for gold and 7900 - 8350 yuan/kilogram for silver. [3] - Although gold has long - term upward potential, the current driving factors are weaker than the previous tariff contradictions. Gold is likely to show a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, but it is difficult to break through the previous high. [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Market Review - **Price and Price Change**: London gold rose 5.02%, and London silver rose 2.99%. The gold - silver ratio increased from 99.6 to 101.4. The 10 - year TIPS rose to 2.18%, the 10 - year nominal interest rate rose to 4.51% (2 - year 4%), and the US dollar index was 99.1. [3] - **Futures Trading and Position Changes**: There were changes in trading volume and positions of various gold and silver futures contracts, such as the trading volume of沪银2506 increasing by 65,240 hands and the position increasing by 29,805 hands. [4] - **Comex and ETF Position Changes**: Comex silver and gold non - commercial net long positions, as well as SLV and SPDR ETF positions, all had corresponding changes. For example, Comex silver non - commercial net long positions increased by 45,645 hands. [4] - **Inventory Changes**: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.13 million ounces to 38.79 million ounces, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 5.47 million ounces to 569.69 million ounces. [36][38] - **Domestic Futures - Spot Price Difference Changes**: The gold and silver futures - spot price differences were at the lower end of the historical range. For example, the gold futures - spot price difference was - 4.38 yuan/gram. [16][19] - **Domestic Inter - month Price Difference Changes**: The gold and silver inter - month price differences were also at the lower end of the historical range. For example, the gold inter - month price difference was 6.02 yuan/gram. [23][27] - **Internal and External Price Difference Changes**: There were changes in the internal and external price differences of gold and silver, such as the silver T + D to London silver price difference changing from - 385 to - 501. [4] - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index fell 1.84%, and other exchange rates also had corresponding changes. [4] 3.2 Overseas Futures - Spot Price Difference - **Gold**: This week, the London spot - COMEX gold主力 price difference fell to - 0.181 dollars/ounce, and the COMEX gold continuous - COMEX gold主力 price difference was - 6.7 dollars/ounce. [9] - **Silver**: This week, the London spot - COMEX silver主力 price difference widened to - 0.26 dollars/ounce, and the COMEX silver continuous - COMEX silver主力 price difference was - 0.43 dollars/ounce. [12] 3.3 Domestic Futures - Spot Price Difference - **Gold**: This week, the gold futures - spot price difference was - 4.38 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range. [16] - **Silver**: This week, the silver futures - spot price difference was - 19 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range. [19] 3.4 Inter - month Price Difference - **Gold**: This week, the gold inter - month price difference was 6.02 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range. [23] - **Silver**: This week, the silver inter - month price difference was 65 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range. [27] 3.5 Cross - month Positive Arbitrage Delivery Cost - There were calculations of cross - month positive arbitrage delivery costs for buying TD and selling Shanghai gold, buying Shanghai gold 12 - month and selling 6 - month, buying TD and selling Shanghai silver, and buying Shanghai silver 12 - month and selling 6 - month. [30][31][32][33] 3.6 Shanghai Gold Exchange Deferred Fee Payment Direction This week, the gold and silver deferred fees on the Shanghai Gold Exchange were mainly paid by longs to shorts, indicating strong delivery power. [34] 3.7 Gold Core Drivers - **Gold and Real Interest Rate**: This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rate recovered, and the 10Y TIPS continued to decline. [60] - **Inflation and Retail Sales Performance**: There were data on inflation and retail sales performance, such as the US PCE and core PCE year - on - year changes. [65] - **Non - farm Employment Performance**: There were data on non - farm employment, such as new non - farm employment numbers and unemployment rates. [67][68][69] - **Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions**: There were related analyses of the industrial manufacturing cycle and financial conditions. [71] - **Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index**: There were discussions on these two indices. [73] - **Fed Rate Cut Probability**: There were calculations and analyses of the Fed rate cut probability. [75]

5月21日根据媒体报道，外汇期权市场的数据显示，交易员对美元未来一年走势的悲观情绪达到有记录以来的最高点。衡量期权市 场买入与卖出某种货币成本差异的1年期风险逆转指标已跌至-27个基点，这意味着看跌期权较看涨期权明显更受青睐。 报道指出，彭博美元即期指数2025年迄今已下跌超过6%，创下该指数二十年来的最差年度开局。数据显示，市场参与者目前持有 约165亿美元押注美元下跌的头寸，几乎创下9月以来的最高水平。截至周三亚盘时段，美元指数再度跌至100整数关口下方，从年 内高点已跌近10%。 随着特朗普反复无常的关税政策和不断扩大的财政赤字引发市场担忧，期权交易员对美元未来前景的看空达到前所未有的水平。 结构性看跌美元观点仍在，因为关税形势的缓和只是暂时的。 与此同时，美国财政状况日益恶化也加剧了市场对美元的担忧。 目前国会正在推进特朗普的大规模减税方案，这将进一步扩大已经高企的联邦赤字。穆迪评级机构上周五晚间更是剥夺了美国的 AAA信用评级，理由是过去十年美国政府债务和利息支付大幅增加。 对于投资者而言，这种前所未有的美元悲观情绪意味着美国资产可能面临进一步资金外流压力，同时也提示全球投资组合配置可 能需要增加对 ...

● 本报记者张勤峰 以中国人民银行、中国证监会近日联合发布关于支持发行科技创新债券有关事宜的公告为标志，我国科 技创新债券市场发展站上新的历史节点。中证鹏元资信评估股份有限公司总裁李勇5月8日在接受中国证 券报记者采访时表示，科创债的迭代升级及债券市场"科技板"的落地，既是做好科技金融大文章的新举 措，也有望为多层次债券市场发展提供新动能。建议持续培育发展国内科创债投资生态，提升投资者投 资科创领域债券的积极性。 科创债迭代升级服务科技创新 "近年来，科创债扩容迅速，成为债券市场创新品种的'顶流'。"李勇介绍，截至2025年一季度末，科创 债已累计发行2.5万亿元，存量余额达1.8万亿元，占非金融企业信用债余额的比重为5.38%。但募集资 金主要用于偿还发行人存量债务或补充流动资金。 此外，信用评级体系也有针对性的创新。李勇介绍，为更充分体现科创企业的特点，更精准识别科创企 业核心竞争力与潜在风险，2024年4月，中证鹏元对科创企业评级方法和模型进行了创新，形成《科技 创新企业信用评级方法和模型》。首先，新的评级方法打破了传统评级方法中重资产、重规模的评级思 路，大幅降低了资产、规模在评级模型中的权重。其次， ...