彭博社8月19日报道，国际金融评级机构穆迪最新分析报告将2025年拉美地区经济增长 预期由2024年12月的2.1%上调至2.2%。从主要国家看，2025—2027年，阿根廷预计增 长将分别达到5.2%、3.5%和3.5%；秘鲁3.1%、2.9%和3%；哥伦比亚2.6%、2.9%和 3.3%；巴西2.4%、1.8%和2.7%；墨西哥0.1%、1%和2.6%；智利2.4%、2%和2.2%；乌 拉圭2.1%、2%和3.1%。2025年一季度，拉美经济同比增长3.1%，同样好于2024年12月 2.6%的预期，其中阿根廷、巴西和智利表现突出。智利受国际铜价上涨利好，矿业生 产成重要增长引擎；秘鲁除受益于金属价格抬升外，通胀和就业水平均处合理区间， 有效推动私人消费增长。 （原标题：穆迪上调2025年拉美地区增长预期至2.2%） ...

Core Points - Chengdu Jiaozi Emerging Financial Investment Group Co., Ltd. has decided to terminate its credit rating and tracking rating cooperation with China Chengxin International Credit Rating Co., Ltd. due to business development needs [2] - The company issued bonds "25 Jiaozi Emerging 01" and "25 Jiaozi Emerging 02" in March 2025, which were rated AAA by China Chengxin International [1] - The previous credit rating report from China Chengxin International rated the company's credit level as AA+ with a stable outlook, valid until September 2025 [1] Group 1 - On July 22, 2025, China Chengxin International announced the termination of credit ratings for Chengdu Jiaozi Emerging Financial Investment Group [1] - The company will no longer provide rating-related materials or pay for credit rating services following the termination [2] - The ratings for "25 Jiaozi Emerging 01" and "25 Jiaozi Emerging 02" will become invalid immediately upon the announcement [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the launch of "Yi Rating," a professional stock evaluation system by Shanghai Media Group's First Financial, aimed at enhancing pricing efficiency in China's capital market [1][2]. Group 1: Overview of Yi Rating - "Yi Rating" encompasses various dimensions of stock evaluation, including business model rating, operational performance rating, in-depth research rating, trading aspect rating, and risk rating, utilizing nearly 30 indicators [2]. - The methodology combines quantitative analysis of financial data with qualitative analysis of industry and company fundamentals, focusing on long-term investment value [2]. Group 2: Initial Launch and Future Plans - In September, "Yi Rating" will release multiple stock rating lists and the first batch of in-depth research evaluation reports for listed companies [3]. - Prior to this, on July 11, "Yi Rating" introduced three pilot products aimed at enhancing professional investment research services, solidifying the theoretical foundation of the evaluation system, and promoting rational, value, and long-term investment concepts [3]. Group 3: Strategic Vision and Development - First Financial aims to continuously iterate and upgrade its methodology, accumulate market research data, and leverage its professional stock evaluation system to connect investors, regulatory bodies, and financial institutions for the healthy development of China's capital market [3]. - In 2024, First Financial has established a "Leading Financial Platform Navigation Special Plan," outlining a strategy of "one platform, two pillars, three ecosystems, and N products," with "Yi Rating" being the first step in the rating business sector [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights significant fluctuations in the foreign exchange market, particularly the decline of the US dollar and the rise of the Chinese yuan, alongside Moody's decision to maintain China's sovereign credit rating, which has drawn market attention [1][9]. Currency Market Dynamics - On May 26, the US dollar index fell to 98.6921, marking a three-week low, while both onshore and offshore yuan appreciated, with the offshore yuan (CNH) breaking the 7.17 mark, reaching a high of 7.16155, the highest since December 2024 [1][3]. - The offshore yuan has seen a decline of over 2500 basis points in just over a month, influenced by concerns over the US's dual deficits following Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 [6]. Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes indicated a "hawkish wait-and-see" stance, pushing back rate cut expectations to September, while disappointing durable goods orders data led to short-term profit-taking on the dollar [8]. - Goldman Sachs' forex strategy team suggests that if the dollar index continues to decline, the yuan may test the 7.15 resistance level, but the second half of the year will depend on the divergence in monetary policies between China and the US [8]. Government and Economic Response - Moody's maintained China's sovereign credit rating at "A1" but kept the outlook negative, citing structural challenges in economic growth, including real estate adjustments and local debt risks. However, short-term fiscal stimulus and central bank support provide a buffer [9]. - The Chinese Ministry of Finance responded positively to Moody's decision, highlighting the government's macroeconomic policies since last year's fourth quarter, which have led to improved economic indicators and enhanced market confidence [9].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold has rebounded, and attention should be paid to the continued rise of the gold - silver ratio. Gold is relatively strong, and silver is neutral. The price ranges are 760 - 800 yuan/gram for gold and 7900 - 8350 yuan/kilogram for silver. [3] - Although gold has long - term upward potential, the current driving factors are weaker than the previous tariff contradictions. Gold is likely to show a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, but it is difficult to break through the previous high. [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Market Review - **Price and Price Change**: London gold rose 5.02%, and London silver rose 2.99%. The gold - silver ratio increased from 99.6 to 101.4. The 10 - year TIPS rose to 2.18%, the 10 - year nominal interest rate rose to 4.51% (2 - year 4%), and the US dollar index was 99.1. [3] - **Futures Trading and Position Changes**: There were changes in trading volume and positions of various gold and silver futures contracts, such as the trading volume of沪银2506 increasing by 65,240 hands and the position increasing by 29,805 hands. [4] - **Comex and ETF Position Changes**: Comex silver and gold non - commercial net long positions, as well as SLV and SPDR ETF positions, all had corresponding changes. For example, Comex silver non - commercial net long positions increased by 45,645 hands. [4] - **Inventory Changes**: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.13 million ounces to 38.79 million ounces, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 5.47 million ounces to 569.69 million ounces. [36][38] - **Domestic Futures - Spot Price Difference Changes**: The gold and silver futures - spot price differences were at the lower end of the historical range. For example, the gold futures - spot price difference was - 4.38 yuan/gram. [16][19] - **Domestic Inter - month Price Difference Changes**: The gold and silver inter - month price differences were also at the lower end of the historical range. For example, the gold inter - month price difference was 6.02 yuan/gram. [23][27] - **Internal and External Price Difference Changes**: There were changes in the internal and external price differences of gold and silver, such as the silver T + D to London silver price difference changing from - 385 to - 501. [4] - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index fell 1.84%, and other exchange rates also had corresponding changes. [4] 3.2 Overseas Futures - Spot Price Difference - **Gold**: This week, the London spot - COMEX gold主力 price difference fell to - 0.181 dollars/ounce, and the COMEX gold continuous - COMEX gold主力 price difference was - 6.7 dollars/ounce. [9] - **Silver**: This week, the London spot - COMEX silver主力 price difference widened to - 0.26 dollars/ounce, and the COMEX silver continuous - COMEX silver主力 price difference was - 0.43 dollars/ounce. [12] 3.3 Domestic Futures - Spot Price Difference - **Gold**: This week, the gold futures - spot price difference was - 4.38 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range. [16] - **Silver**: This week, the silver futures - spot price difference was - 19 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range. [19] 3.4 Inter - month Price Difference - **Gold**: This week, the gold inter - month price difference was 6.02 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range. [23] - **Silver**: This week, the silver inter - month price difference was 65 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range. [27] 3.5 Cross - month Positive Arbitrage Delivery Cost - There were calculations of cross - month positive arbitrage delivery costs for buying TD and selling Shanghai gold, buying Shanghai gold 12 - month and selling 6 - month, buying TD and selling Shanghai silver, and buying Shanghai silver 12 - month and selling 6 - month. [30][31][32][33] 3.6 Shanghai Gold Exchange Deferred Fee Payment Direction This week, the gold and silver deferred fees on the Shanghai Gold Exchange were mainly paid by longs to shorts, indicating strong delivery power. [34] 3.7 Gold Core Drivers - **Gold and Real Interest Rate**: This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rate recovered, and the 10Y TIPS continued to decline. [60] - **Inflation and Retail Sales Performance**: There were data on inflation and retail sales performance, such as the US PCE and core PCE year - on - year changes. [65] - **Non - farm Employment Performance**: There were data on non - farm employment, such as new non - farm employment numbers and unemployment rates. [67][68][69] - **Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions**: There were related analyses of the industrial manufacturing cycle and financial conditions. [71] - **Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index**: There were discussions on these two indices. [73] - **Fed Rate Cut Probability**: There were calculations and analyses of the Fed rate cut probability. [75]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights an unprecedented level of bearish sentiment towards the US dollar, driven by concerns over Trump's erratic tariff policies and the expanding fiscal deficit [1][4][5] - The one-year risk reversal indicator, which measures the cost difference between buying and selling a currency, has dropped to -27 basis points, indicating a strong preference for put options over call options [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has declined over 6% year-to-date, marking the worst start to a year for the index in two decades [1] Group 2 - The uncertainty surrounding US policies, particularly Trump's inconsistent tariff strategies, is a significant factor undermining confidence in the dollar and raising doubts about the predictability of US economic growth [4] - The worsening fiscal situation in the US, exacerbated by a large tax cut proposal, is expected to further increase the already high federal deficit, leading to concerns about the dollar's stability [5] - Moody's has downgraded the US credit rating from AAA, citing a substantial increase in government debt and interest payments over the past decade [5] Group 3 - The extreme bearish sentiment towards the dollar suggests potential outflows from US assets, prompting investors to consider increasing exposure to alternative currencies such as the euro and yen [5] - Some analysts caution that such extreme pessimism could signal a potential rebound for the dollar, as overly negative market sentiment may create opportunities for contrarian trading [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by the People's Bank of China and the China Securities Regulatory Commission marks a significant milestone in the development of the technology innovation bond market in China, aiming to enhance the investment ecosystem for technology innovation bonds and stimulate the multi-tiered bond market [1][2]. Group 1: Development of Technology Innovation Bonds - Since its full launch in 2022, the technology innovation bond market has rapidly developed, accumulating a total issuance of 2.5 trillion yuan and a balance of 1.8 trillion yuan by the end of Q1 2025, accounting for 5.38% of the non-financial corporate credit bond balance [2][3]. - The funds raised from technology innovation bonds have primarily been used for repaying existing debts or supplementing liquidity, indicating a need for more targeted funding applications [2]. Group 2: Features of the New "Technology Board" - The "Technology Board" expands the range of issuers and the purposes for which funds can be raised, now including financial institutions and equity investment institutions, which can use the funds for various technology innovation-related activities [3]. - A differentiated review mechanism has been implemented to enhance issuance efficiency, including a "green channel" for simplified disclosures and extended validity of reports [3]. - Emphasis is placed on post-issuance supervision, ensuring compliance in the use of raised funds and enhancing the effectiveness of the bond market in supporting national strategies [3]. Group 3: Credit Rating Innovations - The credit rating system for technology innovation bonds has been innovated to better reflect the characteristics of tech enterprises, with a new rating method introduced in April 2024 that reduces the weight of asset and scale metrics while increasing the focus on technological innovation capabilities [4][5]. - This new approach aims to enhance the accessibility and convenience of financing for early-stage and growth-stage tech companies, thereby attracting more long-term capital into the technology innovation sector [4]. Group 4: Market Vitality and Future Outlook - The establishment of the "Technology Board" is expected to activate demand for technology innovation bonds from various entities, enhancing the synergy between loans, bonds, and equity financing [7]. - Nearly 100 market institutions are planning to issue over 300 billion yuan in technology innovation bonds, with expectations for further participation from additional institutions [7]. - Continuous innovation in bond types and improvement of the policy environment are essential for enhancing the liquidity and attractiveness of technology innovation bonds, particularly for lower credit quality issuers [8].