投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 大宗商品涨多跌少，黑色、能化表现偏强 ——中信期货晨报20251216 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | | | 日度涨跌幅周度涨跌幅月度涨跌幅季度涨跌幅今年涨跌幅 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 沪深300期货 | 4545.6 | -0.62% | -0.62% | 0.88% | -1.57% | 15.93% | | | 上证50期货 | 2983.8 | -0.10% | -0.10% | 0.70% | -0.17% | 11.42% | | | 中证500期货 | 7115.8 | -0.81% | -0.81 4 | 2.034 | -2.39) | 24.99% | | | 中证1000 ...

Group 1 - The article suggests that a recovery trend may be emerging in the macroeconomic environment, indicating a potential wealth reshuffling opportunity that occurs approximately every ten years [1][11]. - It emphasizes the importance of the macroeconomic environment in determining individual investment success, highlighting that ordinary investors can benefit from aligning with prevailing trends [1][3]. - The current international environment is described as tense, which, while seemingly negative, could signal a breaking point for economic intervention by governments [2][3]. Group 2 - Governments typically respond to economic downturns with three main strategies: monetary policy (e.g., interest rate cuts), fiscal policy (e.g., infrastructure spending), and institutional reforms [3][4]. - The article notes that liquidity increases through these interventions can lead to rising market valuations, suggesting that investors should be prepared to capitalize on these opportunities [3][4]. - The discussion includes the observation that the current market volatility may indicate a transition phase, where the presence of differing opinions on market conditions is seen as a healthy sign [4][5]. Group 3 - The article highlights the potential for a significant industrial upgrade, particularly in the AI sector, which is expected to coincide with a technological revolution involving multiple disruptive technologies [16][18]. - It references a prediction that the global GDP growth rate could double to 7% over the next decade, driven by simultaneous breakthroughs in five key technological areas [29][32]. - The author argues that this technological convergence could lead to unprecedented economic growth, emphasizing the need for investors to recognize and adapt to these changes [30][32]. Group 4 - The article stresses the importance of embracing trends in specific industries and countries, as future economic growth will likely be uneven, with some sectors thriving while others may decline [38][41]. - It warns that investors should avoid concentrating their assets in a single category, as the current market dynamics present high risks [52][54]. - The conclusion encourages investors to remain adaptable and informed, as the market is subject to rapid changes influenced by external factors and liquidity shifts [43][46].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices are expected to continue to fluctuate strongly. The potential end of the US government shutdown and the expectation of liquidity release will support copper prices, while the continuous decline of domestic social inventories will also underpin copper prices [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Copper prices fluctuated strongly. The expected release of liquidity from the unfreezing of the US TGA account drove an overnight rebound in risk assets. The main contract of Shanghai copper jumped to a maximum of 87,050 during the day, but the increase narrowed as the A - share market weakened. Spot copper rose 230 to 86,765, and the spot premium remained flat. The slowdown in downstream orders due to rising copper prices was offset by the decline in domestic social inventories, making it difficult for the spot premium to fall. The loss of spot imports widened to over 700, the LME 0 - 3 contango narrowed to 14.85, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased, limiting the supply of imported goods. It is expected that domestic social inventories will continue to decline in the short term [11]. 3.2 Industry News - Japanese companies JX Advanced Metals, its partners, and Mitsubishi Materials plan to integrate Mitsubishi's copper concentrate procurement and copper product sales business into Pan Pacific Copper (PPC). The proposed integration aims to build a new framework for improving profitability by integrating copper concentrate procurement, reducing costs, and streamlining sales operations [12]. - Citi continues to expect copper prices to climb to an average of $12,000 per ton by the second quarter of 2026 (up to $14,000 per ton in a bullish scenario), and expects copper prices to fluctuate around $11,000 per ton for the rest of this year [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ☆☆☆ [1] - Silver: ☆☆☆ [1] Core View of the Report - Overnight precious metals rose. The US government shutdown negotiation made positive progress and is expected to restart soon. Although it weakens the impact on the economy, it is conducive to the release of phased liquidity. After the official data is restored and announced, the market will continue to weigh the economic and Fed policy prospects. Precious metals currently lack a strong driving force and may continue to build a high-level shock platform. The international gold price is concerned about the resistance around $4,150 per ounce [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs US Temporary Appropriation Bill Progress - The US Senate voted to pass the temporary appropriation bill and submitted it to the House of Representatives for review. The House of Representatives is expected to vote on the bill at 5 am Beijing time on Thursday [1] Fed Officials' Views - Fed Governor Milan believes that the possibility of the end of the government shutdown has not significantly changed the outlook. A 50-basis-point interest rate cut in December is appropriate, and at least a 25-basis-point cut should be made. Fed's Musalem thinks the labor market is close to full employment and is currently cooling down. The space for further policy easing is limited, and caution must be exercised. Fed's Daly says there is no inflation pressure from labor costs, and policymakers need to keep an open attitude towards further interest rate cuts [2] Trade Negotiations - Foreign media said that Switzerland is close to reaching an agreement with the US, and the tariff rate will be reduced to 15%. Trump responded that he is discussing an agreement to reduce tariffs with Switzerland, and the figures are not yet determined. Trump also said that he is close to reaching a trade agreement with India, which is very different from past agreements [2] China's Gold Production and Consumption - According to the latest statistics from the China Gold Association, in the first three quarters of 2025, domestic raw material gold production was 271.782 tons, an increase of 3.714 tons compared with the same period in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.39%. In addition, the production of imported raw material gold was 121.149 tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.94%. The total production of domestic and imported raw materials was 392.931 tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.60%. In the first three quarters of 2025, China's gold consumption was 682.730 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.95%. Among them, gold jewelry consumption was 270.036 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 32.50%; gold bars and coins consumption was 352.116 tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.55%; industrial and other gold consumption was 60.578 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.72% [2]

Core Insights - Precious metals continue to strengthen, with silver leading the gains at over 3% and gold rising by 2.67% due to favorable market sentiment following the U.S. Senate's approval of a temporary funding bill [2] - The three major oils (rapeseed oil, palm oil, and soybean oil) are experiencing a rebound, supported by declining commercial inventories and tight supply expectations [3] - Double焦 (coke and coking coal) prices have dropped over 3%, influenced by government energy supply meetings and declining steel mill profitability [4] - Multi-crystalline silicon has seen a decline of over 2%, with production expectations decreasing in both silicon and downstream silicon wafer sectors [6] Precious Metals - Silver futures on the domestic market rose by 3.20%, while gold futures increased by 2.67% [2] - The market sentiment is buoyed by liquidity expectations following the U.S. government's funding approval, despite potential bearish fundamentals from economic conditions [2] Oilseeds - The main contracts for rapeseed oil increased by over 2%, while palm oil rose by over 1% [3] - Domestic commercial inventories of the three major oils have decreased by 100,000 tons week-on-week and 150,000 tons month-on-month, indicating tightening supply [3] Double焦 and Multi-crystalline Silicon - Double焦 prices fell over 3%, with the market affected by government directives on energy supply and declining steel production profitability [4] - Multi-crystalline silicon prices dropped over 2%, with production cuts expected in both upstream and downstream sectors, leading to a low-level consolidation phase [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated upwards, with domestic refined copper imports remaining at a loss. The US Senate passing a temporary funding bill and China's measures to boost private investment have lifted market sentiment. LME copper inventories increased by 375 tons to 136,275 tons, Comex inventories rose by 2,662 tons to 337,752 tons, and domestic refined copper social inventories decreased by 0.38 million tons to 19.95 million tons. Copper prices may show short - term optimism, and attention should be paid to overseas financial markets and domestic inventories [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended strongly. Alumina factory profits are being compressed, with occasional production cuts in loss - making capacities. The market is in a state of internal - external differentiation, and electrolytic aluminum will continue to adjust at a high level in the short term. Attention should be paid to the long - position opportunities of AD after the narrowing of the price difference [1][3]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel rose 0.53% to $15,100 per ton, while Shanghai nickel remained flat at 119,490 yuan per ton. Indonesia has suspended new nickel smelter licenses. The nickel - iron stainless - steel industry chain is sluggish, and the new energy industry chain has a slight increase in the discount coefficient. Nickel prices may still fluctuate, and inventory conditions should be monitored [3]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight price increase, influenced by US and Chinese policies. Changes in inventory and demand, and the impact of LME's new rules. Short - term optimism with attention to market and inventory [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight price increase, compressed alumina factory profits, internal - external differentiation, and short - term high - level adjustment [1][3]. - **Nickel**: Overnight price increase, Indonesia's new policy, weak raw material support in the industry chain, and potential price fluctuations [3]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Price changes in various aspects such as market prices, scrap copper, and downstream products. Inventory changes in LME, COMEX, and social inventories [4]. - **Lead**: Price changes in lead products, inventory changes in LME and SHFE [4]. - **Aluminum**: Price changes in aluminum products, raw materials, and downstream processing fees. Inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventories [5]. - **Nickel**: Price changes in nickel products, inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventories [5]. - **Zinc**: Price changes in zinc products, TC, and inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventories [7]. - **Tin**: Price changes in tin products, inventory changes in LME and SHFE [7]. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [9][10][11] - **3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts show the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][17][19] - **3.3 LME Inventory**: Charts show the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [22][24][26] - **3.4 SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33] - **3.5 Social Inventory**: Charts show the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39] - **3.6 Smelting Profit**: Charts show the smelting profit trends of copper, aluminum, nickel - iron, zinc, and stainless steel 304 from 2019 - 2025 [41][43][45] Non - Core Content (Not Included in Main Summary) - Team Introduction: The report introduces the members of the non - ferrous metals team, including their educational backgrounds, positions, research directions, and professional achievements [48][49]

Group 1 - Precious metal prices generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 2.83% at $4123.40 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 4.70% at $50.41 per ounce [1] - The U.S. Senate passed a procedural vote on a temporary funding bill aimed at ending the government shutdown, although a final vote in the Senate and a vote in the House of Representatives are still pending [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated that the government shutdown will not affect his view on the U.S. economy, predicting a 50 basis point rate cut in December [2] - Inflation for durable and personal goods in the U.S. showed its first slowdown in three months in October, indicating increased discounting by retailers [2] - The reopening of the U.S. government is expected to positively impact precious metals due to three main reasons: 1) Fiscal expansion is anticipated to resume; 2) Following data releases, the Fed may consider a rate cut in December; 3) The TGA account may release liquidity again [2] Group 3 - In early trading, both Shanghai gold and silver rose by more than 3% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The resolution of the U.S. government shutdown is expected to inject approximately $1 trillion from the Treasury General Account (TGA) back into the economy, providing significant liquidity and potentially leading to a strong market rebound driven by liquidity rather than short covering [1][2][4]. Market Dynamics - The S&P 500 index futures have seen an increase of about $21 billion in open interest, indicating that the current market rebound is primarily driven by new long positions rather than short covering [1][3]. - Institutional investors are currently holding low positions, which could lead to a significant "short squeeze" if the market continues to rise [3][6]. Liquidity and Economic Impact - The TGA balance has surpassed $1 trillion for the first time since April 2021, indicating that over $700 billion has been withdrawn from the market in the past three months [6]. - The end of the government shutdown is expected to release substantial liquidity into the market, potentially leading to a surge in risk assets similar to the "invisible quantitative easing" seen in early 2021 [6]. Sector Analysis - Technology stocks have recently experienced their largest weekly pullback since April, attributed to high valuations, disappointing earnings, and macroeconomic uncertainties [9]. - Consumer sentiment has shifted, with companies failing to meet expectations facing severe penalties, while those exceeding expectations receive minimal rewards [10]. - The industrial sector is also facing volatility, with a lack of strong performance in November and heightened scrutiny on corporate guidance for the future [10].

Group 1 - The resolution of the U.S. government shutdown has led to a significant shift in market sentiment towards optimism, with expectations of a strong market rebound [1] - Approximately $1 trillion is expected to flow back into the economy from the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA), injecting substantial liquidity into the market [1] - The S&P 500 futures saw an increase of $21 billion in open contracts, indicating a rise in long positions rather than short covering [2] Group 2 - Institutional investors' overall positions remain low, similar to levels seen at the end of September, suggesting potential forced buying if market sentiment reverses [4] - The TGA balance has surpassed $1 trillion for the first time since April 2021, indicating a significant liquidity drain from the market over the past three months [4] - The release of liquidity from the TGA could lead to a large-scale buying spree of risk assets, reminiscent of the "invisible quantitative easing" seen in early 2021 [4] Group 3 - Technology stocks have experienced their largest weekly pullback since April, driven by high valuations and macroeconomic uncertainties [5] - Despite a rebound in major tech stocks, investors face ongoing concerns regarding interest rate policies and the performance of AI investments [5] - Consumer sentiment has shifted, with companies failing to meet expectations facing severe penalties, while those exceeding expectations receive minimal rewards [6] Group 4 - The industrial sector is experiencing increased volatility, with a heightened focus on companies' future guidance amid a lack of strong market performance [6] - Goldman Sachs anticipates the government shutdown will likely end around the second week of November, with key pressure points related to payroll for air traffic and airport security personnel [8]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is showing a strong consolidation trend, with long-term bonds performing particularly well, and the central bank may implement measures to release liquidity in the fourth quarter [1][6]. Market Performance - The closing prices for government bond futures showed an increase across all maturities, with the 30-year contract rising by 0.32% to 115.4, the 10-year contract up by 0.15% to 108.175, and the 5-year contract increasing by 0.12% to 105.745 [2]. - The interbank bond market also exhibited a strong performance, with the 10-year government bond yield for "25附息国债16" decreasing by 1.25 basis points to 1.833% [2]. Overseas Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields varied, with the 10-year yield rising by 0.94 basis points to 4.010% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields generally increased, with the 10-year yield rising by 1.9 basis points to 1.674% [4]. Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 3,373 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 1,483 billion yuan for the day [6]. - The Shibor rates for short-term instruments mostly increased, with the overnight rate rising by 12.2 basis points to 1.442% [6]. Economic Fundamentals - From January to September, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 53,732 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.2% [7]. - In September alone, the profit of these enterprises increased by 21.6% year-on-year, driven by new economic growth points and low base effects [8]. Institutional Perspectives - Huatai Fixed Income suggests that the stock market's long-term upward trend remains intact, advising investors to maintain exposure while being cautious of year-end market disturbances [9]. - Guosheng Fixed Income anticipates continued fluctuations in the bond market, with a smoother decline in interest rates expected in the latter part of the fourth quarter [9].