文 | 招商宏观张静静团队 核心观点 国内方面，1）经济数据：反内卷第一阶段或先令上中游开工率降至过去两年开工水平，目前中游开工率先出现较明显回落；7月以来30大中城市商品房销 售始终弱于去年；8月首周港口吞吐量骤降表明7月以来的出口抢跑结束。2）资产方面：流动性或触及短期瓶颈。7月14日央行副行长邹澜曾表示市场普遍 预期美联储下半年重启降息，中美货币政策周期错位将得到改善、中美利差趋于收窄；7月政治局会议也未再提及"适时降准降息" ，表明下半年美联储降 息中国或不跟随。目前DR007处于下限水位，流动性敏感资产短期压力隐现。但再往后看，一旦中美利差收窄并推动人民币汇率升值、叠加PPI同比触 底，国内资产或将从哑铃型策略逐渐向通胀与内需方向切换。 海外方面，1）8月7日特朗普提名斯蒂芬·米兰出任美联储理事，并将在近期提名另一名理事，美联储内部似有MAGA化的趋势，为后续降息打开路径。 2）近期美联储官员发言明显偏鸽，若下周7月CPI同比符合市场预期，则美联储有望在8月21-23日Jackson Hole全球央行会议给出降息暗示。3）但目前9月 FOMC降息25BP已被市场充分定价。Q2业绩超预期后，美股需要看 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, which may improve the misalignment of monetary policy cycles between China and the U.S. and lead to a narrowing of interest rate differentials [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has not mentioned "timely reserve requirement ratio cuts or interest rate cuts" in the recent Politburo meeting, suggesting that China may not follow the Fed's rate cuts in the second half of the year [1] - Currently, the DR007 is at its lower limit, indicating potential short-term pressure on liquidity-sensitive assets [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Looking ahead, if the interest rate differentials between China and the U.S. narrow and the RMB appreciates, combined with a year-on-year bottoming out of the Producer Price Index (PPI), domestic assets may gradually shift from a "dumbbell strategy" to focus on inflation and domestic demand [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes that China does not seek to gain international competitive advantages through currency devaluation, maintaining a clear and consistent stance on exchange rate policy, which prioritizes market determination and aims to keep the RMB stable at a reasonable equilibrium level [1][2]. Economic Stability - Domestic economy shows signs of recovery, with a GDP growth of 5.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, indicating a positive start to the year [1]. - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China has made important deployments for economic work, suggesting a continuation of high-quality economic development [1]. Monetary Policy Expectations - There is a growing market expectation that the Federal Reserve will resume interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, which may improve the alignment of monetary policy cycles between China and the U.S. and narrow the interest rate differential [1]. Balance of Payments - The current account surplus is projected to be 2.2% of GDP in 2024, indicating a balance within a reasonable range [2]. - China's financial market is operating stably, with steady progress in opening up, making RMB assets attractive, and facilitating orderly cross-border capital flows, with a net inflow of approximately $100 billion in the first five months of the year [2]. Foreign Exchange Market Development - Significant progress has been made in the development of the foreign exchange market, with more mature market participants and rational trading behaviors, enhancing market resilience [2]. - The hedging ratio for enterprises and the proportion of RMB cross-border receipts in goods trade have both increased to around 30%, indicating improved capacity for enterprises to respond to external shocks [2].

Group 1 - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China has issued opinions to strengthen judicial work in the new era, emphasizing severe punishment for financial crimes such as market manipulation, insider trading, illegal fundraising, loan fraud, and money laundering [1] - To maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 1.4 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation using a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price levels starting from July 15, 2025 [1] - The Deputy Governor of the Central Bank, Zou Lan, stated that structural monetary policy tools will focus on supporting technological innovation and boosting consumption, with an improvement in the misalignment of monetary policy cycles between China and the US expected in the second half of the year, leading to a narrowing of interest rate differentials [1] Group 2 - Ganfeng Lithium expects a net loss of 300 million to 550 million yuan for the first half of the year, while Tianqi Lithium anticipates a net profit of 0 to 155 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [2] - Xiangyang Bearing is projected to have a net loss of 13 million yuan for the half-year period, and Jingyuntong expects a net loss of 165 million to 225 million yuan [2] - Greenland Holdings anticipates a net loss of 3 billion to 3.5 billion yuan for the first half of the year, while Zhongyan Chemical reports an 88% year-on-year decline in net profit [2] - Tongwei Co. expects a net loss of 4.9 billion to 5.2 billion yuan, and JA Solar anticipates a net loss of 2.5 billion to 3 billion yuan for the first half of the year [2] - Longi Green Energy expects a net loss of 2.4 billion to 2.8 billion yuan, showing a reduction in losses compared to previous periods [2] - Lianhuan Pharmaceutical anticipates a net loss of 38 million to 45 million yuan for the first half of the year [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future direction of China's monetary policy, emphasizing the stability of the RMB exchange rate and the expected improvements in the alignment of monetary policy cycles between China and the US, as well as the focus on supporting key sectors like technology innovation and consumption. Group 1: Monetary Policy Overview - The RMB exchange rate remains stable with a solid foundation due to the improving domestic economy [1] - The expectation of the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate cuts in the second half of the year will help narrow the interest rate differential between China and the US [2] - Recent years have seen a supportive monetary policy environment, with multiple reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates [3] Group 2: Future Monetary Policy Direction - The effects of previously implemented monetary policies will continue to manifest over time, with a commitment to maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy [4] - Structural monetary policy tools will focus on supporting technology innovation and boosting consumption, enhancing the effectiveness of economic restructuring and transformation [5][6] Group 3: Financial Support for Key Areas - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will enhance financial services for the real economy, ensuring liquidity remains ample and aligning monetary supply growth with economic growth targets [7] - Emphasis will be placed on supporting private and small enterprises, improving the financial support system, and increasing the availability of financing for these sectors [8]