Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The policy-side positives for the steel market have basically been realized, and the easing of Sino-US trade tensions is also reflected in prices. The real estate market in core cities has stabilized, while that in lower-tier cities is still bottoming out, with new construction area significantly declining and completion and construction areas still showing large year-on-year drops. The market is gradually shifting from strong reality to weak reality, and the weak expectation may not have changed substantially. Technically, steel prices have broken through the recent trading range and are expected to continue the downward trend [1]. - Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is acceptable, but with the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production cuts, iron ore demand is expected to decline. On the supply side, global shipments are relatively high and rising seasonally. The slowdown in port inventory decline and the high proportion of trade ore inventory put pressure on futures prices. The iron ore futures price is within the recent trading range and may break downwards driven by the decline in steel prices [3]. Summary by Directory I. Threaded Rods and Hot-Rolled Coils - **Market Situation**: Policy-side positives are realized, real estate in core cities stabilizes while lower-tier cities are bottoming out. Demand is expected to weaken with the arrival of the rainy season and high temperatures. The impact of production cut rumors is limited, and steel mills' initiative to cut production is weak [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: Prices have broken through the recent trading range and are expected to continue the downward trend [1]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions [1]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Futures and spot prices of threaded rods and hot-rolled coils have declined. For example, the threaded rod futures price dropped by 2.79% compared to last week, and the hot-rolled coil futures price dropped by 3.54% [1]. - **Production**: The national building materials steel mill threaded rod production decreased by 2.58% week-on-week, while the hot-rolled coil production increased by 4.54% [1]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 2.92% week-on-week, with the threaded rod social inventory dropping by 5.25% and the hot-rolled coil social inventory dropping by 2.08% [1]. II. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Steel mills' iron water production is expected to decline further. The supply is relatively high, and the port inventory decline is slowing down with a high proportion of trade ore inventory [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price is within the recent trading range and may break downwards driven by the decline in steel prices [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions lightly [3]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The prices of various iron ore varieties have declined. For example, the price of Mac fines at Qingdao Port dropped by 2.46% compared to last week [3]. - **Shipments**: Australian iron ore shipments increased by 7.41% week-on-week, while Brazilian shipments decreased by 3.40% [3]. - **Inventory**: The total port inventory decreased by 0.87% week-on-week, and the port trade ore inventory decreased by 1.50% [3]. III. Industry News - In May 2025, the coking coal long-term agreement coal-steel linkage floating value decreased by 31.2 yuan/ton month-on-month, a decline of 2.39% [5]. - Mongolia's ER company's coking coal has failed to be sold in 16 consecutive auctions, with a starting price of 750 yuan/ton [6]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China decreased by 122.25 tons week-on-week [7]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.87%, the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.69%, the steel mill profitability rate was 58.87%, and the daily average iron water output was 2.4191 million tons [8]. - The Gabonese government announced that it will stop exporting manganese ore raw materials from 2029 as part of its national strategy to promote industrialization and reduce dependence on unprocessed resource exports [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The policy - side positives have basically been realized, and the easing of Sino - US trade tensions is reflected in prices. The real estate market in core cities has stabilized, while that in lower - tier cities is still bottoming out. New construction area has dropped significantly, and the year - on - year decline in completed and under - construction areas remains large. Last week, steel production increased, factory inventories rose, social inventories continued to fall, total inventory decreased, and apparent demand declined. The rumored production cuts have limited impact on the market. Steel enterprises think the industry needs to cut production, but lack the motivation. The market is shifting from strong reality to weak reality, and weak expectations may not have changed substantially. Technically, prices have broken through the recent oscillation range downward. [3] - **Iron Ore**: The profitability rate of steel mills is acceptable, but the iron - water output of 247 steel mills decreased last week, and the decline rate has widened. Iron - water output is higher than last year's level and peak. If production - limit policies are introduced, it will further suppress iron - ore demand. With the end of the downstream consumption peak, steel apparent demand has declined, and iron - water output is expected to fall further. On the supply side, global shipments are at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The decline rate of port inventories is slowing, and the proportion of trade - mine inventories is high, putting pressure on futures prices. Technically, futures prices have fallen significantly but are still within the recent oscillation range and may break downward under the influence of falling rebar prices. [5] 3. Summary by Directory Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price Data**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices have generally declined. For example, the rebar主力合约收盘价 is 2980 yuan/ton, down 2.55% from last week; the hot - rolled coil主力合约收盘价 is 3111 yuan/ton, down 2.84% from last week. [3] - **Basis and Spread**: The rebar主力基差 is 150 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan from last week; the hot - rolled coil主力基差 is 89 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan from last week. Different futures spreads also show certain changes. [3] - **Production and Operation**: The blast - furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills is 84.15%, down 0.47% from last week; the average daily iron - water volume is 243.6 million tons, down 0.48% from last week. The proportion of profitable steel mills is 59.74%, up 0.43%. National building - material steel mill rebar production is 231.48 million tons, up 2.19% from last week; hot - roll production is 305.68 million tons, down 2.02% from last week. [3] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of five major steel products is 960.56 million tons, down 3.33% from last week; rebar social inventory is 416.46 million tons, down 4.24% from last week; hot - roll social inventory is 263.27 million tons, down 2.26% from last week. Factory inventories of five major steel products are 437.98 million tons, up 0.23% from last week. [3] - **Trading Volume**: The 7 - day moving average of the national building - steel trading volume is 15.91 million tons, down 17.28% from last week; the weekly terminal procurement volume of wire rods in Shanghai is 15,500 tons, down 11.93% from last week. [3] - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The number of registered rebar warehouse receipts is 41,975 tons, down 9,650 tons; the number of registered hot - roll warehouse receipts is 167,722 tons, down 75,934 tons. [3] Iron Ore - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron - ore主力 contract is 698.5 yuan/dry ton, down 3.66% from last week. Spot prices of various iron - ore powders have also declined to different degrees. [5] - **Basis and Spread**: The DCE iron - ore futures 9 - 1 spread is 34 yuan/dry ton, down 2.0 yuan from last week; the 1 - 5 spread is 19 yuan/dry ton, down 3.5 yuan from last week. [5] - **Supply - Side Data**: Australian iron - ore shipments are 1771.1 million tons, up 7.41% from last week; Brazilian iron - ore shipments are 725.6 million tons, down 3.40% from last week. The total arrival volume at six northern ports is 1058.8 million tons, up 0.09% from last week. [5] - **Inventory Data**: The total port inventory is 13,987.83 million tons, down 1.26% from last week; the port trade - mine inventory is 9581.41 million tons, down 1.41% from last week. The total inventory of imported sintering powder ore of 64 sample steel mills is 1243.52 million tons, down 3.86% from last week. [5] - **Production Data**: The daily output of iron concentrate powder of 186 national sample mines is 50.09 million tons, up 0.42% from last week. [5] - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The number of iron - ore futures warehouse receipts is 1900 hands, down 400 hands. [5] Industry News China's 47 - port imported iron - ore inventory is 14,463.79 million tons, down 163.84 million tons from last Monday. From May 19th to May 25th, 2024, the total iron - ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1417.4 million tons, up 41.1 million tons from the previous period, showing a slight inventory - building trend, and the current inventory is at the maximum since the beginning of the year. [7]