以下文章来源于申万宏源策略 ，作者申万宏源策略 申万宏源策略 . 所以，主动公募向业绩比较基准靠拢，符合海外经验，可能是A股市场和公募行业发展的最终 状态。短期，市场博弈公募持仓向业绩比较基准靠拢，更偏向于是资金博弈主题，需严守性价 比，把握好节奏。 短期宏观预期难有方向性变化，行业结构也缺乏突破方向，我们维持二季度是中枢偏高震荡市 的判断。中美日内瓦经贸联合声明后，中国外需预期修复，支持A股向上挑战震荡区间上限。 但2025年供给增速中枢仍偏高，2025年内A股供需格局难有向上拐点的预期不变。中期A股基 本面节奏预期并未根本变化，暂不足以支持A股向上突破。 同时，二季度经济基本面有望脉冲式改善。中美经贸关系缓和，二季度从"抢转口"到"抢出 口"，外需从初步显现下行压力，到可能脉冲式上行。尽管基本面改善尚无法外推，但短期数 据验证有望保持强势，至少排除了下行风险。5月政策兑现成为主要矛盾阶段，宽货币及时全 面兑现。平准基金有力支撑资本市场预期，A股市场下行风险同样可控。 结构上，科技、消费、医药是A股一季报高景气的主要方向。二季度外需脉冲式改善，政策对 冲受益的消费短期基本面弹性受限。科技需要新产业趋势催化， ...

Group 1 - Short-term macro expectations are unlikely to change direction, maintaining the judgment that the second quarter will be a high central oscillation market. The mid-term A-share fundamentals have not fundamentally changed, and it is insufficient to support a breakout in A-shares [4][5][6] - The active public funds are aligning with performance benchmarks, emphasizing the importance of not underestimating long-term impacts while not overestimating short-term effects. The adjustment of performance benchmarks for public funds is seen as an opportunity to consolidate product strategies [5][6][7] - In the active equity products, 77% of the scale is based on broad-based indices, and 42% is based on the CSI 300. Future performance benchmarks need to clarify product positioning, investment strategies, and investment styles [6][7][8] Group 2 - The market is currently discussing the long-term impact of the public fund quality development action plan, which has become a major clue for short-term structural trends. The alignment of holdings with performance benchmarks is not necessarily a universal trend [5][6][7] - The public fund's performance indicators are generally showing cyclical fluctuations and are currently at a bottom area. The next two years may see a gradual recovery in public fund profitability and an increase in the proportion of profitable clients [7][8] - The report highlights that low-valuation, high-dividend assets benefiting from public fund reforms are currently in a low cost-performance area. The technology sector remains a relatively high cost-performance direction compared to consumption, with a strategic focus on the domestic AI industry chain and embodied intelligence investment opportunities [8][9]