Core Viewpoint - The textile and apparel industry is gradually resuming operations after the Spring Festival, with ethylene glycol's market performance closely tied to the recovery pace of downstream sectors. The market has experienced significant inventory accumulation due to seasonal factors, leading to downward pressure on spot prices. However, post-holiday recovery in downstream polyester and terminal sectors, along with increased maintenance in ethylene glycol production, suggests a marginal improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with optimistic long-term expectations. Nonetheless, the full recovery of terminal weaving, dyeing, and home textile sectors remains uncertain, necessitating further validation of demand rebound sustainability, as the market is currently in a phase of contention between bullish and bearish sentiments [3][12]. Inventory and Price Dynamics - Prior to the Spring Festival, ethylene glycol port inventory continued to accumulate, reaching 790,500 tons by February 12, an increase of 190,000 tons compared to the end of 2025. The commissioning of new production facilities in Ningxia and BASF also contributed to concentrated supply increments. The logistics disruptions during the holiday exacerbated inventory pressure, suppressing spot prices, which fell to approximately 3,585 yuan/ton [4][14]. - By February 26, the port inventory further increased to 861,500 tons, up 71,000 tons from February 12, indicating persistent near-term supply pressure despite a slight reduction in actual port arrivals during the holiday [4][14]. Demand Recovery and Supply Adjustments - Following the holiday, ethylene glycol demand began to recover as downstream sectors gradually resumed operations. By February 27, the polyester industry's operating rate rose to 77.41%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the lowest point during the holiday, indicating a gradual release of essential procurement volumes for ethylene glycol [5][15]. - In March, planned maintenance of several ethylene glycol facilities is expected to alleviate supply pressure, with significant reductions anticipated. This, combined with the recovery in downstream demand, is likely to create a noticeable disparity, improving the supply-demand balance for ethylene glycol [7][17]. Future Outlook - Entering the second quarter, the scale of ethylene glycol maintenance is expected to expand, supported by the peak season for textiles and apparel, which will likely enhance inventory reduction. The static supply-demand balance suggests potential for price rebounds in the ethylene glycol market [7][17]. - However, it is crucial to monitor the recovery of downstream demand, as the return of frontline production staff is still ongoing, and the resumption of weaving, dyeing, and apparel sectors is relatively slower compared to previous years. The sustainability of demand recovery remains to be observed [10][20].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the ethylene glycol industry is experiencing an increase in maintenance activities, while downstream polyester operations remain at high levels, leading to a relatively small increase in ethylene glycol inventory, but a higher accumulation expectation before and after the Spring Festival [2][18] - The ethylene glycol production capacity in China is now at 31.542 million tons, with the East China region accounting for 46.79% of the total capacity following the commissioning of the Shandong Yulong Petrochemical plant [2][18] - In December, the estimated ethylene glycol production in China is 1.7772 million tons, with a decrease in operational load rates across various production methods, indicating a lack of significant production increase [5][21] Group 2 - The average inventory level of ethylene glycol at East China ports is 587,000 tons, with a month-end inventory of 600,500 tons, reflecting a 60,000-ton increase from the previous month [7][23] - Polyester operating rates are at 88.81%, showing a slight decrease, and the downstream textile and apparel sector is entering a low-demand season, leading to a reduction in weaving machine operating rates [9][25] - The overall supply-demand structure for ethylene glycol is expected to maintain a state of accumulation from January to March, with a gradual decline in downstream polyester operations anticipated as the Spring Festival approaches [14][30] Group 3 - The production profit for coal-based ethylene glycol has seen a slight recovery, with the tax-inclusive gross profit around -250.44 yuan per ton, reflecting a small increase from the previous period [12][28] - The weaving market is experiencing a decline in demand, with many companies preparing for the Spring Festival shutdown, and external trade orders are slowing down due to the approaching holiday season [10][11][27]

1. Report Information - Report Name: MEG Daily Report [1] - Date: November 20, 2025 [2] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 3. Core Viewpoint - The current supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol is still expected to be weak, and the macro - market sentiment is cautious. It is expected that ethylene glycol will continue to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [7] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures market: The closing price of EG2601 was 3903 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan; the closing price of EG2605 was 4000 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan. The trading volume was 179,353 lots, and the open interest was 329,949 lots. The open interest of EG2601 decreased by 2,263 lots, while that of EG2605 increased by 2,431 lots [7] 4.2 Industry News - Crude oil: Due to concerns about distillate supply, diesel prices soared, driving up crude oil futures. On November 18, the settlement price of WTI crude oil December 2025 futures was $60.74 per barrel, up $0.83 or 1.39%; the settlement price of Brent crude oil January 2026 futures was $64.89 per barrel, up $0.69 or 1.07% [8] - Ethylene glycol market: The spot negotiation price in Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol market this week was 3929 - 3931 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The current - week spot basis had a premium of 26 - 28 yuan/ton over EG2601 [8] - Industry operating rate: The operating load rate of the Chinese ethylene glycol industry was 60.73%, down 1.13 percentage points. The operating load rate of ethylene - based ethylene glycol was 68.05%, up 0.3 percentage points, while that of syngas - based ethylene glycol was 49.69%, down 3.27 percentage points [8] 4.3 Data Overview - The report provides data charts on PTA - MEG spread, MEG price, MEG futures price, spot - futures price difference, international crude oil futures main contract closing price, raw material price index (ethylene), MEG downstream product price, and MEG downstream product inventory [10][15][16][18]

Report Information - Report Name: MEG Daily Report [1] - Date: August 13, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The short - term macro - market sentiment has improved, but the supply - demand structure and cost support of ethylene glycol are weak. It is expected that the short - term spot price of ethylene glycol may fluctuate within a range [7] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures market: For EG2509, the closing price was 4432 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan, with a position of 190,590 contracts, a decrease of 8,974 contracts; for EG2601, the closing price was 4478 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan, with a position of 57,197 contracts, an increase of 9,162 contracts. On the 12th, the opening price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract 2409 was 4395, the highest was 4416, the lowest was 4365, the settlement price was 4392, and the closing price was 4409, up 29 yuan or 0.66% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The total volume was 207,424 lots, and the position was 433,890 lots [7] 2. Industry News - Oil prices: Investors are concerned about the upcoming negotiations between the US and a European country on the Ukraine crisis. On Monday (August 11), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.96 per barrel, up $0.08 or 0.13% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.02 - $64.44; the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $66.63 per barrel, up $0.04 or 0.06% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.81 - $67.13 [8] - Ethylene glycol market in Zhangjiagang: The spot negotiation price this week is 4507 - 4509 yuan/ton, up 20.5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The spot negotiation price next week is 4508 - 4510 yuan/ton, and the negotiation price for the end of August is 4509 - 4511 yuan/ton. The basis of this week's spot is at a premium of 75 - 77 yuan/ton compared to EG2509, next week's spot basis is at a premium of 76 - 78 yuan/ton compared to EG2509, and the basis at the end of August is at a premium of 77 - 79 yuan/ton compared to EG2509 [8] - Polyester market: The price of polyester filament continued to rise locally to repair profit margins, but downstream buying was limited as most completed restocking last weekend and are currently digesting inventory. The main futures price of polyester staple fiber was running warmly. The price of staple fiber factories was stable, and the price of traders increased slightly. The downstream purchasing willingness was low, and the trading volume in the market was differentiated, with some low - price transactions showing an increase [8] 3. Data Overview - Multiple data charts are provided, including PTA - MEG spread, MEG price, MEG futures price, spot - futures price difference, international crude oil futures main contract closing price, raw material price index (ethylene), MEG downstream product price, and MEG downstream product inventory, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][15][16][18]

Supply and Demand - As of May 15, the overall operating rate of MEG is 60.51%, down by 8.48%, while the coal-based MEG operating rate is 60.04%, down by 6.71% [2] - As of May 19, the estimated MEG port inventory in the East China main port area is approximately 743,000 tons, a decrease of 0.8 thousand tons compared to the previous period [2] - Demand remains consistent with PTA demand [2] Market Outlook - In May, the ethylene glycol industry is experiencing both maintenance and restart of facilities, with a significant recovery in synthetic gas load expected in mid to late May [3] - Hengli Petrochemical's 1.8 million tons/year MEG facility is temporarily shut down in mid-May, with an expected downtime of over one month [3] - Short-term polyester load is running at a high level, and due to maintenance of two large facilities in Saudi Arabia, the expected import volume is adjusted downward [3] - Recent overseas shipments arriving at the port are limited, indicating a trend of inventory reduction in May and June, which is also reflected in port inventory [3] - The easing of China-US tariff issues is expected to provide short-term support for ethylene glycol prices [3] - The strategy suggests considering selling put options EG2509-P-4300 and taking low-price positions in EG9-1 [3]