Supply and Demand - As of May 22, the overall operating rate of MEG is 58.22%, a decrease of 2.26%, while the coal-based MEG operating rate is 61.25%, an increase of 1.21% [2] - As of May 26, the estimated port inventory of MEG in the East China main port area is approximately 687,000 tons, a decrease of 56,000 tons compared to the previous period [2] - Demand remains consistent with PTA demand [2] Market Outlook - There is a short-term expectation of reduced polyester production, but due to maintenance of major ethylene glycol facilities by Hengli Petrochemical and Satellite Petrochemical, as well as reduced operating rates at Shenghong Refining, there is also an expectation of supply contraction for ethylene glycol [3] - Recent maintenance of two major facilities in Saudi Arabia and reduced operations at some Iranian facilities have led to a decrease in overseas shipments, limiting the rebound in import volumes [3] - The expectation for inventory reduction in ethylene glycol is significant for May and June, with recent inventory reductions reflected in port stocks, indicating that the pace of inventory depletion may accelerate in June [3] - The strategy suggested is to maintain a wait-and-see approach, with a recommendation for low-price hedging in EG9-1 [3] Spot Market - On May 27, ethylene glycol prices showed a weak consolidation trend, with a strong basis [1] - Polyester plants have reduced production, with operating rates falling below 92% [1] - The spot market saw ethylene glycol prices briefly dip before recovering, with transactions around 153-155 yuan/ton above the September contract by the end of the day [1] - In the international market, ethylene glycol prices slightly retreated, with June shipment negotiations around $528-$530 per ton, while further out shipments were lower at below $525 per ton [1]

化工日报 | 2025-05-22 聚酯减产意向影响，EG震荡下跌 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4414元/吨（较前一交易日变动+1元/吨，幅度+0.02%），EG华东市场现货价 4516元/吨（较前一交易日变动+6元/吨，幅度+0.13%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）88元/吨（环比-7元/吨）。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-23美元/吨（环比-4美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为181元/吨（环比-48 元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为74.3万吨（环比-0.8万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为66.4万吨（环比-2.8万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数6.4万吨，到港量偏少，但同时 聚酯工厂隐性库存下降，港口小幅去库；本周华东主港计划到港总数10.9万吨，中性。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，近期仓单量大幅增加，乙二醇现货流动性收紧，卫星等几套大装置仍存检修计划； 需求端，近端聚酯负荷高位提升，5月聚酯月均负荷或不降反升，需求端支撑，同时美国对中国纺服关税大幅下降， 美国订单恢复发货。短期外轮到货偏少，聚 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Short - term cautious bullish on the unilateral strategy; no suggestions for cross - period and cross - variety strategies [3] 2. Core View - The polyester production cut intention led to a decline in the EG market. However, in the short term, due to the maintenance plans of several large devices such as Satellite, the tightening of liquidity under the solidification of warehouse receipts, and the low arrival volume, the price has support. In the long - term, under the background of continuous destocking, the liquidity of ethylene glycol may still tighten from June to July. Attention should be paid to the realization of negative feedback on the demand side when raw materials rise rapidly [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4413 yuan/ton (down 62 yuan/ton or 1.39% from the previous trading day), the spot price in the East China EG market was 4510 yuan/ton (down 63 yuan/ton or 1.38% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis in East China EG (based on the 2509 contract) was 95 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 19 US dollars/ton (up 3 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - based syngas - based EG was 229 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] International Spread - No specific data was provided in the text Downstream Production, Sales and Operating Rate - The near - end polyester load increased at a high level, and the average monthly polyester load in May may increase instead of decrease. The US orders for Chinese textile and clothing resumed shipping due to the significant reduction of US tariffs on Chinese textile and clothing [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 74.3 tons (down 0.8 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 66.4 tons (down 2.8 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival volume at the main ports last week was 6.4 tons, and the planned arrival volume at the main ports in East China this week was 10.9 tons [1]

Core Viewpoint - The temporary shutdown of two MEG plants in Northeast China, totaling 1.8 million tons per year, is expected to impact market supply significantly, with a shutdown duration of over one month [1] Industry Summary - The two MEG plants were scheduled for a 45-day maintenance starting mid-June, but the unexpected early shutdown has led to a supply tightening in the market [1] - On May 15, ethylene glycol prices adjusted downwards, with the basis weakening in tandem. The main trading range for the 09 contract was reported at a premium of 90 to 125 RMB per ton [1] - Internationally, ethylene glycol prices slightly declined, with mainstream negotiations around 527 to 532 USD per ton, indicating a cautious buying sentiment [1] - The EG2509 contract closed at 4461 RMB per ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.69%, with a trading volume of 322,900 lots [1] - Polyester production and sales rates were reported at 35.56% for polyester filament, 44.17% for polyester staple fiber, and 40.82% for polyester chips, indicating a general weakness in filament sales despite some improvement in downstream business [1] - The domestic ethylene glycol operating rate has dropped significantly to its lowest level of the year, while high polyester operating rates provide strong support for ethylene glycol prices [1] - The expected price trend for ethylene glycol is upward, with attention on ongoing tariff developments and the situation regarding US supply [1]